The Beto Effect - How To Lose Elections and Influence Nothing

[troph 23963]

16 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I think he’d have a shot in a place like North Carolina, New Mexico or Nevada. He’d do well in New Mexico I think and could ride that to being Governor. Watching all the channels the last few days, I realize that for some it’s the “mission” and not the “fight” but that both parties are learning to perhaps spend their resources in other states. This midterm, was to me, proof of that. Lots of money spent in Florida and Texas could be better used in other states like NC for Democrats. The GOP wasted money in several places. I’m not saying give up on Texas but I’m also saying allocate more resources in other places. That would be like the GOP sinking $200m in California and not pursuing other states.

national democratic party should give up on texas, really already has.  Texas has been solidly behind the party that opposes equality from the moment Texas became a state. Pro-slavery democrats, anti-Reconstruction democrats, anti-civil rights republicans, anti-equality republicans now.  This hasn't changed since 1845 and no reason to see it changing simply because the kids are liberal.

[StassneyHorn 6407]

Solidifying the metro areas minus Fort Worth had its advantages. The Aggy name change of this thread was expected though

 

[chainsaw 9441]

6 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Solidifying the metro areas minus Fort Worth had its advantages. The Aggy name change of this thread was expected though

 

Exactly this. The TDP picked the least bad option from a harm mitigation standpoint and it worked. But just like a stripper acts like she's in love with you to keep the fantasy alive, TDP has to act like it can win statewide races to mitigate possible downballot losses, even though we all know those fantasies are just fantasies.

[fattyflattie 4631]

2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

The question is if Dems nominated someone more electable, can that person beat Abott? Are there enough moderates in this state who would vote Dem if a charismatic nominee was the choice? I honestly don't know.

I don’t know.  Just talking with the guys I *barely* care to talk politics with irl this weekend, they all viewed Abbott as too down the center.  Most of them went away from Abbott when Huffines appeared on the scene.  Oddly, most of these votes for Trump, but couldn’t stand his shit.  Was actually fucking floored when one said his wife was abstaining voting for gov due to RvW. HATED Abbott, but Beto was not even a consideration. 
 

Briskets example of himself earlier sounds great. Problem is, you are supposed to represent your constituents, and the ones that got you there. Being the least R doesn’t necessarily jibe with the message of the folks that got you there. Why would anyone right of you drift that way?  Still comes down to the fringes calling the shots, squeaky wheel, etc. 

[GoPokes83 2236]

Are we done with the Beto experiment yet?

[thepop 4383]

I think that is safe to say.

 

Can we take the guys working on Texas NIL efforts and have them lead the Texas Democratic Party?

Edited November 11, 2022 by thepop

[Bozo_Casanova 25501]

Beto came to lose elections and send text messages, and he is all out of text messages.

[Bozo_Casanova 25501]

9 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

I think he’d have a shot in a place like North Carolina, New Mexico or Nevada. He’d do well in New Mexico I think and could ride that to being Governor. Watching all the channels the last few days, I realize that for some it’s the “mission” and not the “fight” but that both parties are learning to perhaps spend their resources in other states. This midterm, was to me, proof of that. Lots of money spent in Florida and Texas could be better used in other states like NC for Democrats. The GOP wasted money in several places. I’m not saying give up on Texas but I’m also saying allocate more resources in other places. That would be like the GOP sinking $200m in California and not pursuing other states.

No offense but but this the political version of “I’m out of touch? No, it’s the children who are wrong.”

the problem isn’t Texas. The problem is that the Democratic Party has institutionalized doing what it takes to lose in Texas. 

[Born to Run 6186]

Beto came to lose elections and send text messages, and he is all out of text messages.

But hes still got that skateboard, though from personal experience I'd suggest he hang that up and stick with running. Like for exercise, by himself with some tunes. Or maybe drink a 40 Oz in a whataburger parking lot. Also safer and same cred. Whatever.

[Brisketexan 103146]

i really don't understand how you guys can keep discussing this as if there is a chance that a democrat could possibly win statewide office in the current conditions...regardless of candidate charisma, pandering, etc...  you need to travel outside of austin.
texas is a lost state.  it isn't just the east, west, and north texas rural areas.  it's the suburbs.  it's cypress, it's the woodlands, it's plano and southlake it's waco and georgetown.  it's aggy.  the lufkins, longviews, tylers, abilenes, of the state are just gravy.
the manifestation of jesus christ, abraham lincoln, george washington, nelson mandela, ghandi, and caeser all in one person would get absolutely obliterated by ted cruz, greg abbot, and dan patrick in a statewide race.  ironically, by people voting against their own diabetic, scooter riding interests.  this state is irredeemable in terms of numbers.
one of the great ironies that i do find amusing about this state is that the two of the very few blue counties (travis and dallas) are responsible for contributing all of the socialist robinhood funds that every other red county across the state relies on to fund their local education.  austin isd, eanes isd, highland park, and plano is where almost all the money comes from.  "DON'T BE VOTIN' FOR NO SOCIALISTS, TEXAS!  now give us all your money austin and dallas."

This post is the immutable, unchangeable truth of Texas politics. Read it, accept it, and realize that we are never, ever unfucking ourselves. Texas is determined to become Mississippi with oil and Mexican food. We’re going to get there very quickly.

[Born to Run 6186]

This post is the immutable, unchangeable truth of Texas politics. Read it, accept it, and realize that we are never, ever unfucking ourselves. Texas is determined to become Mississippi with oil and Mexican food. We’re going to get there very quickly.

Get there?

My family had land near Anderson TX. When they were forced to remove the civil war shit away from the Courthouse, they bought land 100 yards away on private property and set it up there. This was maybe 15 years ago. Llano proudly support the heritage of tens of confederate fighters with Jim Crowe Era statues. We often don't even have the heritage or confederate ancestors but we have all the hate. We don't even have Tennessee Williams.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6489]

4 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

 We don't even have Tennessee Williams.

But we have Ricky Williams.  That’s a win for Texas.

[Bozo_Casanova 25501]

The problem with all the pussy loser talk on this thread is that it’s exactly the attitude that the Political pros working in Texas have about Texas. Of course they lose. They work hard at it.

Texas is winnable statewide for a Democrat if they do winner things.

[Born to Run 6186]

But we have Ricky Williams.  That’s a win for Texas.

Yeah but hes from Cali and smoked weed for anxiety and people here lost thier fucking minds over it and lamented he wasn't a Skoal brother and we know what that implied.

[Brisketexan 103146]

The problem with all the pussy loser talk on this thread is that it’s exactly the attitude that the Political pros working in Texas have about Texas. Of course they lose. They work hard at it.
Texas is winnable statewide for a Democrat if they do winner things.

But they don’t. They won’t. They can’t. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it.
So, we’re fucked.

[fattyflattie 4631]

13 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

17 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

But we have Ricky Williams.  That’s a win for Texas.

Yeah but hes from Cali and smoked weed for anxiety and people here lost thier fucking minds over it and lamented he wasn't a Skoal brother and we know what that implied.

Not sure I follow. 

 

 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4956]

If the Democrats had a candidate in Texas who, when asked about whether civilians should own AR-15's who then replied that his personal hunting rifle was an AR-15 chambered in 300 blackout, but he wished magpul made a FDE five or ten round magazine because a thirty round magazine is a bit bulky for chasing deer it would definitely get the attention of a lot of Republican voters, and in a good way. 

Instead, we get to hear about how Republicans pushed gun control back in the day to suppress black people (and it was successful) in one breath while pushing those same types of policies in the other breath while claiming its not racist if they do it.

[Bozo_Casanova 25501]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But they don’t. They won’t. They can’t. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it.
So, we’re fucked.

Well that’s true

[Born to Run 6186]

Not sure I follow. 
 
 

I retract my statement.
Let's all agree Earl was the fucking man.

[Bozo_Casanova 25501]

 

[Born to Run 6186]

Texas is the suburb capital of the world in a time when Republicans are hemorrhaging support in their old suburban base.  There is clearly an opportunity.  The problem is flipping the switch to decide you want to try to win the votes of people you don’t agree with instead of trying to win their hearts and minds.

Well I'm a wing shooting son of a gun, with a healthy arsenal in my gun safe. I can clean a deer, hammer some Specks and Redfish, I'll even throw a pandering dip of Skoal in (for about a minute) if you need me two. I'm 6-1 190 and can resurrect my native SE Texas tongue as well, and I'm relatively dumb, not Goeb dumb, but I offer a lot to work with if you're hiring candidates. Mold me as you see fit and pick my wardrobe. I'm also familiar with Texas suburban women. It's high time the currency starts flowing my way in that interaction for a change.

[Dnaguy 11538]

5 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 18825]

7 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

the problem isn’t Texas.

The hell it isn't.  The people of this state by and large fucking suck.

[Anastasis 23191]

8 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Beto came to lose elections and send text messages, and he is all out of text messages.

They are just coming from warnock now for the next few weeks and then someone else after that. Those lists will live for ever. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Anastasis

[Neonmoon 38126]

8 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The problem with all the pussy loser talk on this thread is that it’s exactly the attitude that the Political pros working in Texas have about Texas. Of course they lose. They work hard at it.

Texas is winnable statewide for a Democrat if they do winner things.

Is there any evidence for this? 

[Chuckie Finster 22253]

Still probably wouldn’t matter, but Texas Democrats need to be recruiting General McRaven like he’s Earl Campbell in high school.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13268]

The elected democrats (US House, county, city) probably see no problem with the TDP leadership because they personally win each time. And I’m sure any money from the TDP is only directed toward the people that could potentially remove the TDP leadership.

 

[scottsins 1921]

Still probably wouldn’t matter, but Texas Democrats need to be recruiting General McRaven like he’s Earl Campbell in high school.

Yep. More importantly, to me, they need to raid Fetterman’s entire social media team and strategists.

[troph 23963]

there is ZERO evidence Texas state wide can flip anytime soon, like decade plus soon. Ken Paxton won re-election for crying out loud. seriously folks, stop it. it's ain't happening. just like the yelladawgs, we have redheads now or whatever, red no matter what is entrenched.

[chainsaw 9441]

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Still probably wouldn’t matter, but Texas Democrats need to be recruiting General McRaven like he’s Earl Campbell in high school.

Pop (if the Primo stuff ends well)

[Brisketexan 103146]

7 minutes ago, troph said:

there is ZERO evidence Texas state wide can flip anytime soon, like decade plus soon. Ken Paxton won re-election for crying out loud. seriously folks, stop it. it's ain't happening. just like the yelladawgs, we have redheads now or whatever, red no matter what is entrenched.

Bingo.  Beelzebub Puppykiller Childrapist (R), running on a platform of snapping puppies' necks and sodomizing infants because that ownz tha libz, wins in Texas by 10-12 points.  Owning tha libz is a bonus -- really, the (R) and that alone seals the deal.

[Celery Man 20535]

3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The hell it isn't.  The people of this state by and large fucking suck.

As troph points out, re-electing Paxton is firm evidence of this truth. Shithole state full of dumb fucking rubes. 

[Nivek 16643]

Still probably wouldn’t matter, but Texas Democrats need to be recruiting General McRaven like he’s Earl Campbell in high school.

Nope. He would lose in dramatic fashion. Republicans don’t give a flying fuck about military service. They voted for Trump who disrespected military service members, active and veterans. And they happily voted for him again.

you don’t get it.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13268]

Texas Democrats should focus on non-statewide races. Use the elimination of straight-ticket voting as an advantage. You might convince a few GOP voters to vote for a local Dem, or not be bothered to vote on the down ballot races.

Of course the problem with this strategy is that you simultaneously have to convince the low energy Dem voter to actually vote. This is the real problem with the Texas Dem party.

[usmc0331horn 919]

He needs to run against Cornyn next just to complete the cycle and for the laughs.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13268]

12 minutes ago, usmc0331horn said:

He needs to run against Cornyn next just to complete the cycle and for the laughs.

If you can't beat Cruz, it was always an impossibility to beat Abbott. Republicans like Abbott but hate Cruz.

 

[troph 23963]

the other thing - Paxton didn't just win the general where no other R was an option, he won the primary against one of the most recognized last names in Republican political history. you can say yeah but Bush.  and my response, yeah, but Bush.  seriously, it's not happening any time soon, maybe not even in our lifetimes.

Edited November 11, 2022 by troph

[Chad Fuck 17259]

The problem with all the pussy loser talk on this thread is that it’s exactly the attitude that the Political pros working in Texas have about Texas. Of course they lose. They work hard at it.
Texas is winnable statewide for a Democrat if they do winner things.

What specifically are the winner things you speak of?

Be specific and show your work please.

[troph 23963]

5 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

 

I'm going to read this later. But Florida is next. They will be R for decades too.

[Bozo_Casanova 25501]

7 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

What specifically are the winner things you speak of?

Be specific and show your work please.

lol, OK. Republicans can flip districts in South Texas that have a natural 55-45 D break because they have better campaigns, better messaging and better field ops but Democrats can't have those things.  Got it. This is exactly the victim mentality that prevents Democrats from winning. 
How about, you know, run TV ads? How about good calls to action in text messages instead of word walls begging for money 10X/day with no reminder of when and where to vote?

On the other hand, I personally got Ken Paxton texts that were better than anything from Beto or any Texas Democrat. The ROI of Republicans sending text messages to Democrats is very high. 

 

[Biff Tannen 44919]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

How about, you know, run TV ads? How about good calls to action in text messages instead of word walls begging for money 10X/day with no reminder of when and where to vote?

I saw tons of Dem ads in the weeks leading up to the election and I'm in Austin.  Agree on the text message part, but that seems to be their only purpose these days on #bothsides.

 

[elfenix 34000]

20 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Briskets example of himself earlier sounds great. Problem is, you are supposed to represent your constituents, and the ones that got you there. Being the least R doesn’t necessarily jibe with the message of the folks that got you there. Why would anyone right of you drift that way?  Still comes down to the fringes calling the shots, squeaky wheel, etc. 

we need severe primary reform (and by reform, get rid of the thing and go some flavor of RCV)

 

12 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

If the Democrats had a candidate in Texas who, when asked about whether civilians should own AR-15's who then replied that his personal hunting rifle was an AR-15 chambered in 300 blackout, but he wished magpul made a FDE five or ten round magazine because a thirty round magazine is a bit bulky for chasing deer it would definitely get the attention of a lot of Republican voters, and in a good way. 

no, it wouldn't. (D) candidates elsewhere have tried. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by elfenix

[Bozo_Casanova 25501]

23 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I saw tons of Dem ads in the weeks leading up to the election and I'm in Austin.  Agree on the text message part, but that seems to be their only purpose these days on #bothsides.

 

I saw a ton of dem ads in Austin in the last 2 weeks, but not nearly enough in September. And until the very last Beto ad, they were all hot garbage. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25501]

17 minutes ago, elfenix said:

no, it wouldn't. (D) candidates elsewhere have tried. 

And it worked - an extreme (and ridiculous) example.

 

 

To be clear , I am NOT suggestiing that this approach is what it takes in Texas. I'm saying that messaging well to a target audience works across party lines. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Bozo_Casanova

[fattyflattie 4631]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

And it worked - an extreme (and ridiculous) example

 

Silly ad, but the NRA endorsement is there. I highly suspect that would be your difference. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25501]

7 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Silly ad, but the NRA endorsement is there. I highly suspect that would be your difference. 

The imagery and the nuance is far, far more effective than the endorsement, and I know this because I am almost positive you would not vote for Joe Manchin if you lived in WVA. 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Bozo_Casanova

[fattyflattie 4631]

7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The imagery and the nuance is far, far more effective than the endorsement, and I know this because I am almost positive you would not vote for Joe Manchin if you lived in WVA. 

 

Disagree. There are pics of every president (sans Trump maybe) shooting skeet or hunting.  Doesn’t mean shit.  Like I said upthread, Briskets candidacy chops sounded great upthread, doesn’t mean we agree on policy.  But he would have been a better candidate than the ones run out there previously in finding the middle, maybe.  Certainly better than Beto. 
 

I spent a year in WV between ‘20-‘22.  I’m not certain how he got elected tbh, but I figure it goes deeper than an add with a rifle. I’m talking Trump flags on every other porch where I was.  

[fattyflattie 4631]

38 minutes ago, elfenix said:

no, it wouldn't. (D) candidates elsewhere have tried. 

The specific example NAAL gave would go a lot further than you’re giving it credit for.  Somehow politicians that play that game (even the Rs) seem to step on their dick even in the 90 second spots.  See Cruz trying to look outdoorsy while holding his reel like a jetty rat, while wearing a type V.  Totally legit, Raphael.  They do it because it works, I guess, so @Bozo_Casanova isn’t wrong.  
 

I think Beto would have been a lot further along just saying something and sticking with it.  All the conservative shows playing his back and forth in short fashion chronological order ruined his credibility and trustworthiness on that subject. Of course it was just one of 20 of this ideas, but a large one in Texas. 

[Biff Tannen 44919]

33 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I saw a ton of dem ads in Austin in the last 2 weeks, but not nearly enough in September. And until the very last Beto ad, they were all hot garbage. 

That sledge hammer one for Abbott made me cringe.  Just pile on every nonsense boogey man they could think of all into one package.  Anyone that fell for that is a fucking sap.

[Dnaguy 11538]

Texas Democrats need to find an identity that is uniquely Texas.... a brand so to speak. Currently it's the island of misfit toys.

It's 'other' in relation to 'batshit crazy MAGA' and corporate rich white boomer men. But what does it mean? I really can't tell you.

Do Texas democrats want to raise taxes? IDK.

Expand Medicaid? IDK.

Replace property taxes with an income tax?

Increase the minimum wage?

Codify a woman's right to choose?

I voted Dem in every statewide office, I literally do not know one policy plank of the state party. I did know that Beto wanted background checks all gun purchases and no 18 year olds buying AR15's. He also believes woman have a right to choose. But did he plan on trying to make that law? What was his legislative agenda?

 

If Texas Democrats want to win with no substance then they need the latina version of Ann Richards to spring forth with the charisma of Obama.

If they can find that, they can win a statewide office sooner than the 'in 10 years' we've been hearing for the last 20 years.

Anything other than finding that diamond in the rough, they're going to have to find out what latinos want out of politics. Meld that with African american's concerns.

Then package that so that white women and suburbanites doen't get scared of it or feel like they're the bad guy.