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The Beto Effect - How To Lose Elections and Influence Nothing


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This thread reminds me of our district's congressional house race. I've lived in the area for 12 years now, so 6 election cycles. The incumbent Democrat and the same GOP candidates have run every time, and the incumbent has won every time. A lot of campaign stuff, same results. 

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1 minute ago, Mo Horn said:

This thread reminds me of our district's congressional house race. I've lived in the area for 12 years now, so 6 election cycles. The incumbent Democrat and the same GOP candidates have run every time, and the incumbent has won every time. A lot of campaign stuff, same results. 

Can't keep grifting that sweet, sweet PAC money if you quit and go home. 

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May be a play on short view reporting from urban vs rural centers on election night, but that may be too dependent on pi running as a functional market on election night. 

If it reacts quickly, there may be value in Abbott on election night. Texas releases early vote counts first, which are generally expected to be more favorable to Democrats. Biden led Texas in the initial vote drop and until well over 50% off votes were reported.

Don’t know that the split will be that big this time, but if something like that happens and Abbott comes down into the 60-70 cent range, there’s value there.
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he ran another nice guy campaign when as Texas became more restrictive than the Taliban, instituted a bounty system, grid failures, high property taxes, and school shootings.   

Beto would be a great governor.  He is absolute shit at campaigning.  

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6 minutes ago, Nivek said:

he ran another nice guy campaign when as Texas became more restrictive than the Taliban, instituted a bounty system, grid failures, high property taxes, and school shootings.   

Beto would be a great governor.  He is absolute shit at campaigning.  

So what now? He's lost 3 times in a row. I thought I read from some politico's that losing 3 times in a row is generally understood in the sector that it means 3 strikes and you are out with a political career. Is that accurate? I wonder what he can do to rebound or be of value-- maybe a House Seat? Would his pride let him do that?

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3 minutes ago, MeerkatBong said:

So what now? He's lost 3 times in a row. I thought I read from some politico's that losing 3 times in a row is generally understood in the sector that it means 3 strikes and you are out with a political career. Is that accurate? I wonder what he can do to rebound or be of value-- maybe a House Seat? Would his pride let him do that?

Only way he could do that is by backstabbing someone in El Paso.

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Just now, MeerkatBong said:

So what's his viable political career options moving forward? Be an insider? a strategist? fundraiser? cult of personality fluffer for other candidates to rally support?

That seems likeliest. If he's smart he would create Texas-based answer to Bannon's "Real America's Voice" and Ben Shapiro's "Daily Wire"

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Just now, chainsaw said:

That seems likeliest. If he's smart he would create Texas-based answer to Bannon's "Real America's Voice" and Ben Shapiro's "Daily Wire"

Makes sense. I'm curious to watch his next moves-- he's generally well-liked by Dems and young people and seems to be passionate about his views and you'd think that is a value add somewhere moving forward.

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10 minutes ago, Nivek said:

he ran another nice guy campaign when as Texas became more restrictive than the Taliban, instituted a bounty system, grid failures, high property taxes, and school shootings.   

Beto would be a great governor.  He is absolute shit at campaigning.  

Beto is a terrible candidate with a ton of baggage.   How/Why he continues to get the democratic nomination for things is a mystery to me.   He is as unlikeable as Ted Cruz but has liberal positions. 

 

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Betomania was a cultural moment in 2018. Really helped the downballot Dems and that's why the state's party leaders love(d) him. I think that cultural moment has passed and maybe it was more of a general repudiation of Trump in which he played a big part, but in Beto's and the party leadership's defense, Ann Richards ain't walking through that door. This is a party that ran Lupe Valdez in 2018 and MJ Hegar in 2020. It's not a very deep bench.

Beto is at his best when he's doing townhalls, visiting every county, that kind of thing. I think he can still do those things effectively, and the next rising star in Texas politics will need to do all those things to elevate his or her profile and have a fighting chance.

Beto really regressed though. Didn't win Tarrant or Williamson. As soon as I saw that in early voting, that combined with low turnout in urban counties, told me it was going to be a massive L and I think his team knew this was coming, too.

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4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Betomania was a cultural moment in 2018. Really helped the downballot Dems and that's why the state's party leaders love(d) him. I think that cultural moment has passed and maybe it was more of a general repudiation of Trump in which he played a big part, but in Beto's and the party leadership's defense, Ann Richards ain't walking through that door. This is a party that ran Lupe Valdez in 2018 and MJ Hegar in 2020. It's not a very deep bench.

Beto is at his best when he's doing townhalls, visiting every county, that kind of thing. I think he can still do those things effectively, and the next rising star in Texas politics will need to do all those things to elevate his or her profile and have a fighting chance.

Beto really regressed though. Didn't win Tarrant or Williamson. As soon as I saw that in early voting, that combined with low turnout in urban counties, told me it was going to be a massive L and I think his team knew this was coming, too.

You almost wonder if it was fatigue as well. What you described is exhausting, and this is his 3rd high profile (Senate, POTUS, Gov) race. Taking 3 high profile massive L's has to be emotionally and mentally exhausting as well.

It's like what the Detroit Lions would say-- losing eats at your soul and wears you down and it's hard to shake that culture. Betomania was a force, then Ellen happened and it seemed to never get back on track. Now Beto is associated with political loss, fair or unfair (the Aegean stables that is trying to win Texas as a hard-line anti-gun D).

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15 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

He is done for any major office. Put him to use for fundraiser and registering ppl to vote. Give him a job and funds and let him run with it.

I guess his next step will also tell us if he's in it for the right reasons e.g. ideologically, team-player, helping a vision come to fruition, versus ego/self-interest a la "I was born for this", though to be fair, I wouldn't blame the guy for not wanting anything more to do with politics after his gauntlet he has ran since 2018 and knowing he has tons of money.

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1 minute ago, longhornmatt said:

Democrats need to get over people like Beto and Stacey Abrams that lost their election.  They aren't special candidates who were wronged or whatever.  Because Democrats aren't outright authoritarian cultists, those two aren't deified to the extent of Trump and nobody is storming capitol buildings, which is nice.  But it's still basically just sour grapes that keeps them relevant.  Democrats hate Cruz and got emotionally invested in Beto since they thought there was a real opportunity to beat Cruz, and they wanted to believe that Abrams was cheated so they invested in her (and that martyr story), too.

Meh.  Just move on.  Democrats in Texas need to accept that their only chance to win statewide is to nominate a Manchin / Bob Bullock type blue dog and go for the throat on a personal level when they are running against scummy people like Cruz, Paxton and Patrick.   Beto isn't that guy, in either respect.   

Beto is incredibly moderate. He took a gamble during 2020 primaries to try and distinguish himself from Pete and the others and said something about guns. I find it interesting that in a Trump state if you run a moderate and pander to the pro-cop crowd (like Demings in FL) you lose and underperform Biden by a lot, but if you run someone clearly left of center who believes in Medicare for All and raising taxes on the highest earners (Bernie Sanders protege John "Huge Dick" Fetterman) you win and overperform Biden by a lot.

I think whoever will have statewide success in Texas is going to be more politically similar to Greg Casar than to Henry Cuellar.

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  • immamac changed the title to The Beto Effect - How To Lose Elections and Influence Nothing
32 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Democrats need to get over people like Beto and Stacey Abrams that lost their election.  They aren't special candidates who were wronged or whatever.  Because Democrats aren't outright authoritarian cultists, those two aren't deified to the extent of Trump and nobody is storming capitol buildings, which is nice.  But it's still basically just sour grapes that keeps them relevant.  Democrats hate Cruz and got emotionally invested in Beto since they thought there was a real opportunity to beat Cruz, and they wanted to believe that Abrams was cheated so they invested in her (and that martyr story), too.

Meh.  Just move on.  Democrats in Texas need to accept that their only chance to win statewide is to nominate a Manchin / Bob Bullock type blue dog and go for the throat on a personal level when they are running against scummy people like Cruz, Paxton and Patrick.   Beto isn't that guy, in either respect.   

Right after I read this post I read this on cnn.com:

Biggest Losers from Last night:

* Beto O’Rourke: O’Rourke came up short in his challenge to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Tuesday night, meaning that he has now lost three straight elections: 1) The 2018 Senate race to Ted Cruz; 2) the 2020 Democratic presidential primary; 3) the 2022 governor’s race. In politics, like in baseball, it’s usually three strikes and you’re out. It’s hard to see O’Rourke credibly running for another office any time soon – a remarkable downturn for someone who was regarded as a rising Democratic star just a few years ago.

* Stacey Abrams: Speaking of stars who have faded, the Georgia Democrat lost the governor’s race in convincing fashion as she was unable to replicate the coalition that got her close to victory four years ago. Abrams, who emerged from that first race as all the rage among Democrats nationally, looks far less impressive this time around. And with two losses in her two most recent races, it’s hard to see where a political comeback starts for her.

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I really wouldn't consider the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary to be "a loss" for Beto.  By that rationale, Biden and several other Democratic leaders are perpetual losers.  Testing the waters in a POTUS campaign in a crowded primary field is not really "losing."  For centuries, people have been doing it in our country and losing once or twice, in addition to whatever else you do in your own statewide campaigning, shouldn't be hung around your neck.  But he's locked out of statewide office in Texas for the foreseeable future.  He should look at U.S. Congress again, West Texas state Senate seat, Mayor of El Paso, or hang back and see who wins the White House in 2024 and possibly angle for a cabinet spot.  

If he's half-smart, and I'd like to think that he is...he'll do some fast-track law degree in the next 2+ years and get himself an appointment to a federal district bench or run for AG. 

Anyway, for all the hundreds of millions of dollars thrown at him...he ends up doing about the same as no-name Valdez.  That's a bummer, some of that could have been better spent trying to usurp some other races.  But he's only 50...he'll be back.  But he needs to come back for something bigger than himself.  

But Beto brings up a good point.  Abbott, Patrick, Paxton, Miller, Christian, Hegar, and a few others.  Then swept in as this "Class" in 2014 and they're gonna all be here until 2026 and beyond.  That shit, even for a red state, has gotta stop.  

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The only boxes Beto checked on the “Viable Democrat candidate for Texas Governor” list are that he’s a good looking white male and he speaks Spanish.  Boxes he didn’t check:

Completely reject the Dem party stance on immigration and border security 

Do not ever talk about taking people’s guns away (probably ok to talk about adding restrictions to gun purchases)


There are parts of the Dem platform that could probably get broad support in Texas (universal healthcare, education funding, abortion rights), but not if the candidate can in any way be labeled as favoring gun control or an open border.

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10 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The only boxes Beto checked on the “Viable Democrat candidate for Texas Governor” list are that he’s a good looking white male and he speaks Spanish.  Boxes he didn’t check:

Completely reject the Dem party stance on immigration and border security 

Do not ever talk about taking people’s guns away (probably ok to talk about adding restrictions to gun purchases)


There are parts of the Dem platform that could probably get broad support in Texas (universal healthcare, education funding, abortion rights), but not if the candidate can in any way be labeled as favoring gun control or an open border.

Says a lot more about how shitty Texas is than Beto.

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1 hour ago, Gengs1 said:

He lost as soon as he said he would take guns away 

Which wasn't even said during this race and was also said in the heat of the moment following the Wal-Mart shooting in El Paso.

I agree Beto might've done a better job clarifying that statement in this campaign but it was always going to be disingenuously used in Abbott/Patrick attack ads and it was. I do not think his common sense views on guns are all that different than enough Texans for it to not be the reason he wins or loses an election in this state.

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50 minutes ago, TexPx said:

Did you see all those people at all those rallies compared to Abbott rallies? All those Beto yard signs compared to Abbott?

Beto won BIG. The election was stolen!

There was actually a fraction of yard signs this time, which I guess tells some of the story as well?

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