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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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7 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

the issue for Ukraine right now is almost all the bridges on the east side of the country have been blown to stop the Russian advance.   That works both ways.

liberating Kyiv entirely is helpful for the western half of the country, but the eastern army is their most experienced army group and the linkup at Mariupol badly threatens their ability to defend the east.

 

Ukraine needs to launch a heavy counter attack towards Mariupol pretty quickly which means they need to get a shitload of heavy vehicles into the East side of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia in the next week or so.... and then a huge counter attack directly south cutting off the Crimea attack spear of Russia.

thats not gonna be easy.

 

Unfortunately, I think the net net of the next few months will end up with Russia pretty much controlling everything east of the Dnieper River... again, because all the bridges accross the river are blown and you cant transfer heavy weapons across easily.

I don't think Russia has the the manpower or equipment to do that. I think the Ukes will push them out of the Kyiv area within a month, and then the eastern front will be a slog for several more months. That is, unless Putin dies or nukes something. 

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19 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

the issue for Ukraine right now is almost all the bridges on the east side of the country have been blown to stop the Russian advance.   That works both ways.

liberating Kyiv entirely is helpful for the western half of the country, but the eastern army is their most experienced army group and the linkup at Mariupol badly threatens their ability to defend the east.

 

Ukraine needs to launch a heavy counter attack towards Mariupol pretty quickly which means they need to get a shitload of heavy vehicles into the East side of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia in the next week or so.... and then a huge counter attack directly south cutting off the Crimea attack spear of Russia.

thats not gonna be easy.

 

Unfortunately, I think the net net of the next few months will end up with Russia pretty much controlling everything east of the Dnieper River... again, because all the bridges accross the river are blown and you cant transfer heavy weapons across easily.

Ukranians have already liberated Mykolaiv (allegedly) and are driving to liberate Kherson. Russia needs to control ALL OF THAT in order to create the land bridge (in addition to Mariupol).

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Here’s an 18m video from Vice News covering the civilian toll on Kharkiv.

A few things before you watch. One, there seems to be a higher number of unskippable ads than usual if you don’t have premium YouTube. Two, it’s really heartbreaking. Lots of video of dead bodies. Several interviews with brave people clearly distraught. Three, kudos to everyone for their perseverance, but a special thank you to the reporter and camera man. That was extremely effective journalism. With almost half a dozen reporters already killed, being out there to get information for the rest of us is awe inspiring. I look up to everyone  featured in this video. Oh, and it’s rough on the heart. Be prepared for activated tear ducts. 
 

 

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Love the hook 'em at the end.  I know that's not what he was doing, but anything to get them to smile.  Only a matter of time though before this gets turned around on us, that we're sending in operators on behalf of the U.S. & NATO.  Only a matter of time we turn those tables ourselves here in side our own borders, with one another.  But for now and always, God Bless those former servicemen who heeded the call for good over autocrats.  The worshipped man always falls.  And hopefully with his colon wrapped around his neck.  

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10 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Interesting changes

 

This was the off ramp for Putin I thought they would/could take.   Everything was a diversion to the goal of attacking and reducing the "Nazi" presence in Ukraine, and to liberate the "Russian" people in Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk).  Needed the "appearance" of a bigger invasion to accomplish this.

Pull back and try and fortify those areas/borders.   Then borrow our "Mission Accomplished" banner.

After this they have their allies/supporters slowly try to remove the sanctions and economic restrictions to help stop the suffering of the Russian people.

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3 minutes ago, ABSR said:

This was the off ramp for Putin I thought they would/could take.   Everything was a diversion to the goal of attacking and reducing the "Nazi" presence in Ukraine, and to liberate the "Russian" people in Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk).  Needed the "appearance" of a bigger invasion to accomplish this.

Pull back and try and fortify those areas/borders.   Then borrow our "Mission Accomplished" banner.

After this they have their allies/supporters slowly try to remove the sanctions and economic restrictions to help stop the suffering of the Russian people.

He's gonna need another off ramp. The Ukes ain't giving up Donbas without a neverending fight, and I don't think sanctions are going away until Putin goes away and Russia pulls out completely. Mofo overplayed his hand badly. 

Edited by NorthLoop
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4 minutes ago, ABSR said:

This was the off ramp for Putin I thought they would/could take.   Everything was a diversion to the goal of attacking and reducing the "Nazi" presence in Ukraine, and to liberate the "Russian" people in Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk).  Needed the "appearance" of a bigger invasion to accomplish this.

Pull back and try and fortify those areas/borders.   Then borrow our "Mission Accomplished" banner.

After this they have their allies/supporters slowly try to remove the sanctions and economic restrictions to help stop the suffering of the Russian people.

Yep, and short chance the UA can do much to push them back.  Territory gained is now territory owned.  

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Just now, NorthLoop said:

He's gonna need another off ramp. The Ukes ain't giving up Donbas without a neverending fight. 

I agree, and as long as they are willing to fight I think we should support them to get back every inch of territory including Crimea if that is what they want and are willing to do....But this is Putin/Russia's off ramp to the immediate cluster they created.  

Pull back, build defenses, declare victory.

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6 minutes ago, ABSR said:

This was the off ramp for Putin I thought they would/could take.   Everything was a diversion to the goal of attacking and reducing the "Nazi" presence in Ukraine, and to liberate the "Russian" people in Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk).  Needed the "appearance" of a bigger invasion to accomplish this.

Pull back and try and fortify those areas/borders.   Then borrow our "Mission Accomplished" banner.

After this they have their allies/supporters slowly try to remove the sanctions and economic restrictions to help stop the suffering of the Russian people.

That off-ramp is going to mined with explosives 

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Yep, and short chance the UA can do much to push them back.  Territory gained is now territory owned.  

Yeah, I’m not so sure. Once that “goal” has been accomplished, NATO troops can watch the west while the full might of the Ukraine Army and Agriculture team head east. Russia would not win those battles. At all.

Ukraine could absolutely take back those regions and eventually head to Crimea.

Ukraine is going to want everything back.
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3 minutes ago, Handcruser said:


Yeah, I’m not so sure. Once that “goal” has been accomplished, NATO troops can watch the west while the full might of the Ukraine Army and Agriculture team head east. Russia would not win those battles. At all.

Ukraine could absolutely take back those regions and eventually head to Crimea.

Ukraine is going to want everything back.

It would be a possibility.  Much easier to defend than coordinate attacks, so a lot has to happen to get to such a point.  

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1 hour ago, Constant said:

We’ve seen Deere, New Holland, and Case tractors embarrassing the Russian military. 

I have seen a New Holland and at least one JD. There is a popular German brand that is also a darker green.

 

edit nvm Royal fan:

  

17 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

bunch of Fendts too.

 

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11 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

 

This was one of his better write ups.  He's kind of hit or miss due to protecting how much money he's making off cable news appearances.

He also wrote that the command officers walking off to let Biden and the enlisted eat pizza together, without command present, is a huge signal of trust.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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9 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:

I have seen a New Holland and at least one JD. There is a popular German brand that is also a darker green.

 

edit nvm Royal fan:

  

 

Seeing the Fendt's is great because they're the best for hauling tanks of shit, and now they get the opportunity to haul a different type of tank full of shit. 

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When the war studies academian you follow parks his neutral assessments...

 

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Interesting changes

 

Huge shift, moving the goalposts.  But........

57 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

He's gonna need another off ramp. The Ukes ain't giving up Donbas without a neverending fight, and I don't think sanctions are going away until Putin goes away and Russia pulls out completely. Mofo overplayed his hand badly. 

.....this.  Ukraine shouldn't accept a complete cession of Donbas.  Really, they have to fight like hell for Mariupol -- they have to relieve it.  This is where the war could get truly ugly for UKR in terms of casualties and battle losses.  They can't take Mariupol with just small squads popping off javelins and taking out Russian armor here and there.  It will have to include a full assault, using armor and air elements.  And they will take some serious losses in doing so.  But strategically, I don't think they can let Mariupol fall into Russian hands and stay there.

56 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

FOqiCl_WUAECcxj?format=jpg&name=small

This is painfully true.  Seriously, most nights lately, my mind is filled with tactical and strategic questions, and I have visuals of battle maps and possible moves by the opposing sides dancing in my head.

I'm one messed up dude.

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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

This is painfully true.  Seriously, most nights lately, my mind is filled with tactical and strategic questions, and I have visuals of battle maps and possible moves by the opposing sides dancing in my head.

I'm one messed up dude.

smoke a bowl before bed

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They can't take Mariupol with just small squads popping off javelins and taking out Russian armor here and there.  It will have to include a full assault, using armor and air elements.  And they will take some serious losses in doing so.  But strategically, I don't think they can let Mariupol fall into Russian hands and stay there.

My point about coordinating attacks on defended Russian territory.  They also expose themselves to concentrated counterattacks which I would guess would favor the larger, but more static Russian forces.  

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3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

My point about coordinating attacks on defended Russian territory.  They also expose themselves to concentrated counterattacks which I would guess would favor the larger, but more static Russian forces.  

And yes, I'm confident that's what Russia is trying to draw them in on.  So, don't rush there.  But eventually, they will have to get around to it.  Batter and weaken the Russians everywhere else, and be resigned to the fact that you may just be fighting for ownership of corpses and rubble at Mariupol.....but also the geography underneath it.

Keep tackling the Russian supply lines, troops, material, and morale.  Then, when sufficiently degraded, launch the attack.  Shit, maybe do a few feints at other locations to draw Russians there to prevent a breakthrough.  This is where the war can get more "traditional," complicated, and costly for Ukraine.

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https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/25/22996187/russian-military-hack-viasat-internet-satellite-ukraine

 

Quote

American government officials told The Washington Post that the Russian military was responsible for a cyberattack on a European satellite internet service that affected Ukrainian military communications in late February.

The hack affected the KA-SAT satellite broadband network, owned by Viasat, an American satellite communications company. On February 24th, the day the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the KA-SAT network was hit by outages that affected Ukraine and surrounding regions in Europe. A few days afterward, Viasat blamed outages on a “cyber event,” but did not release further details.

 

Quote

Though Ukrainian officials have not fully disclosed the impact, the outage is believed to have caused significant communications disruptions at the beginning of the war.

The NSA was reported to be collaborating on an investigation with Ukrainian intelligence services, but no results have been officially announced. However, anonymous officials reportedly told the Post that US intelligence analysts have now concluded that Russian military hackers were behind the attack.

A request for confirmation sent by The Verge to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) had not received a response by the time of publication.

 

Spoiler

Officials from Viasat told Air Force Magazine that the attack was conducted through a compromise of the system that manages customer satellite terminals, and only affected customers of the KA-SAT network, a smaller broadband provider that Viasat bought last year from French satellite operator Eutelsat.

At the outset of the conflict, commentators feared that Russia could launch widespread and destructive cyberattacks. While one perspective holds that such attacks have failed to materialize, the slow release of additional information gives credence to the suggestion that many attacks may have occurred in the shadows.

In the aftermath of the hack, CISA and the FBI issued a joint cybersecurity advisory to satellite communications providers, warning that the agencies were aware of possible threats to US and international networks, and advising companies to report any indications of malicious activity immediately.

As the war in Ukraine continues — and US opposition to Russia grows in the form of sanctions — the Biden administration has issued increasingly serious warnings about the possibility of Russian cyberattacks on US infrastructure.

On Monday, President Biden advised US businesses to take added precautions against hacking, citing “evolving intelligence” that Russia was preparing to target the US with cyberattacks. Then on Thursday, the Department of Justice unsealed indictments against four Russians accused of mounting state-sponsored cyberattacks against the US, publicly releasing details of a highly sophisticated hacking campaign involving supply-chain software compromises and spear-phishing campaigns against thousands of employees of companies and US government agencies.

 

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34 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

This was one of his better write ups.  He's kind of hit or miss due to protecting how much money he's making off cable news appearances.

He also wrote that the command officers walking off to let Biden and the enlisted eat pizza together, without command present, is a huge signal of trust.

The pizza thing is a fucking lie.  You got your command snitches there.  

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7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And yes, I'm confident that's what Russia is trying to draw them in on.  So, don't rush there.  But eventually, they will have to get around to it.  Batter and weaken the Russians everywhere else, and be resigned to the fact that you may just be fighting for ownership of corpses and rubble at Mariupol.....but also the geography underneath it.

Keep tackling the Russian supply lines, troops, material, and morale.  Then, when sufficiently degraded, launch the attack.  Shit, maybe do a few feints at other locations to draw Russians there to prevent a breakthrough.  This is where the war can get more "traditional," complicated, and costly for Ukraine.

Look at the gains on the ground for the RU.  They have created a buffer along the border that they can directly supply.  The UKR can try and break these lines and create pockets, but this is a massive "front" to try and coordinate.  They also have the geographical concerns of being enveloped if they try to focus on specific regions.  Russia can also dance back/forth across the border in an attempt to get the UKR overextended and prime for a counter.  

 

Ukraine war in maps: Tracking the Russian invasion - BBC News

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12 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Look at the gains on the ground for the RU.  They have created a buffer along the border that they can directly supply.  The UKR can try and break these lines and create pockets, but this is a massive "front" to try and coordinate.  They also have the geographical concerns of being enveloped if they try to focus on specific regions.  Russia can also dance back/forth across the border in an attempt to get the UKR overextended and prime for a counter.  

 

Ukraine war in maps: Tracking the Russian invasion - BBC News

Yep.  There are going to be some tough strategic choices to be made by UKR soon.

They have to continue to protect and relieve Kyiv, because capital, symbolic value, all that.

There are other places in the east that may be more ripe for a successful counterattack (Kharkiv).  So, a counterattack that controls major cities, and keeps them, does have value.

I like the counter attack at Kherson, but I don't know how much.  I'm trying to figure out how much strategic value it will actually deliver (it may have real tactical value in denying Russia a place from which to press further west -- I'm talking about ultimate strategic value, though).

Mariupol has strategic value, because the Sea of Azov matters, and a full linkup of Russian forces from Crimea to the east matters.  I can see that being the "no compromise" flashpoint that prevents either side from walking away, and UKR could lose a lot in that fight.  But maybe it's worth it.

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3 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

If John Deere doesn't have plans for Ukraine edition tractors they should fire their entire marketing department. 

They're too busy waiting for more microchips to ship in to make sure that only John Deere can work on John Deere tractors.

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