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4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Calm down everyone, they're not being let into NATO at Vilnius, there are too many hurdles they still need to overcome and they won't be given a shortcut. I DO think they will be given some security guarantees though. 

Was anyone really thinking that was going to happen?  It just doesn't work until this is over for them to be in NATO, it would create all sorts of problems.  

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2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Was anyone really thinking that was going to happen?  It just doesn't work until this is over for them to be in NATO, it would create all sorts of problems.  

That WWIII thang.   Kinda an issue.   IMO Joe was correct in tamping down the cray talk.  

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17 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Calm down everyone, they're not being let into NATO at Vilnius, there are too many hurdles they still need to overcome and they won't be given a shortcut. I DO think they will be given some security guarantees though. 

Oh cool, a security guarantee like the Budapest Memorandum?

 

 

chris farley Tommy Callahan GIF

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At this point with Ukraine.  It's a shit or get off the shitter.  By telling Vlad we won't let them in until this shit is over just means he won't stop.  We either need to do an overwhelming response and end the shit or let Vlad win.  The Ukraine is a badass army thing has now been debunked as bullshit.

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4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

No surprise.  Twitter Blue accounts fueling Russian misinformation about Ukraine.  
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66113460

Fucking Qanon dipshits

So they got a poop emoji in response?
 

 

I heard this one a few weeks ago talking to my wife's uncle. He was extremely confident about it.

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14 minutes ago, 27-25 said:

spacer.png

I think this will be his encore in Vilnius, and considering that we have shit loads of these in Germany and that the Ukrainians are largely already trained on them, I don't think it will be long before they are in the field.  

Refresher on them for any interested

]

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2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I presume there isn't much training for those HIMARS operators when they get the ATACM's?  So they can go to killing Russians right quick?

Fire control is basically the same as I understand it, along with the computer targeting system.  I believe there are hardware changes, but I don't think that should really effect the already trained Himars crews.  

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I hate Putin.  I hate Russians only second to middle easterners in their view point of arrogance but damn.  We act like we didn't draw Ukraine into this war.  We start training this army and providing them equipment and trying to get them into our sphere of influence to ultimately join NATO.  They get invaded and then we're like damn bro.  That kinda sucks.  Here's some second hand weapons so you can kill Russians but if you're too successful we are going to need you to chill out.  

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Phillips O'Brien's weekend update:

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-36-500-days?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1176440&post_id=134049631&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

Quote

Well this was a week where the line only moved a little bit in a few places—the Ukrainians seemed to make most of their advances around Bakhmut, but they also made some around Zaporizhzhia, and yet it was a week full of news, with some very important indications of where the war is heading (and what the future might look like). I’ve identified four points that are worthy of discussion—but the way things are going, there could be another one this morning.

Before that, it is worth noting that it is now been 500 days since the Russian full-scale invasion of February 24, 2022. Though that seems like ages ago, its actually a short period in wars like this (large state wars). I sincerely hope that this war is over before another 500 days pass, though I would think if Putin stays in power, we will see fighting of some sort until late 2024 (when the US presidential election occurs). That means we could be only halfway through this.

more spoilered

Spoiler

That being said, it is worth reflecting on how Ukraine has fought so well for its freedom, from being written off by most analysts (honest to God, most were wondering whether Ukraine could even muster an insurgency, let alone outfight Russia in a conventional war), to now having the initiative in liberating its territory.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama

 

The New Battle of Kherson

I wrote a substack earlier this week saying that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had entered a distinct second phase. Basically, the Ukrainians had attempted a operational maneuver breakthrough but the reality of modern war reared its head. Vehicles such as tanks are extremely vulnerable to a range of systems (mines, hand-helds, UAVs, artillery, etc) and pushing significant force forward in vehicles without command of the air is impossible.

After the opening ten days, however, Ukraine changed tactics and seems to have concentrated overwhelmingly on taking out Russian artillery/MLRS systems and their supporting structures. This includes their ammunition depots (a number of large ones went up in the last week, counterbattery radars, EW, etc).

The focus on Russian artillery is clear from Ukrainian claims of destruction. Basically the daily rate in the last few weeks is almost 200% larger than it has been over the last 500 days. That does not happen by accident.

What this new phase shows is that both this war, and Ukrainian decision-making, is following a course that was first forged in the liberation of Kherson Oblast (right bank of the Dnipro) last Autumn. At first Ukraine did attempt an assault on Russian lines in Kherson and, in a way very similar to what we just saw in Zaporizhzhia in June, they made slow progress and suffered losses. At that time the Ukrainians dialled down the direct assaults to save resources and limit casualties, and identified the Russian systems that they needed to destroy to succeed. In this case it was the bridges (and later pontoons) that were carrying supplies across the Dnipro to Russian forces. What the Ukrainians did was spend months hammering these supply lines (destroying the bridges) which eventually forced the Russians to pull out of the right bank entirely in November.

What Ukraine is doing now is similar intellectually but even more difficult (they dont have rivers to aid them by providing specific targets). They have identified what they need to neutralize on the Russian side to succeed, and now they need to try and take those outs. They are starting clearly by making Russian artillery a very high priority. They will probably stay on that for a while. When they feel they have done what they can here, they will switch to attacks on Russians forces in the lines.

This will take time—even months. Because war is so dangerous for the offensive side, and Ukraine doesnt want to waste its forces like the Russians did at Bakhmut for instance, they must proceed methodically to weaken the Russians before advancing. Its also the only Ukrainian option—because of the specific way that they have been armed. This brings up the next point.

Cluster Munitions

This week the Biden Administration released another list of military aid for Ukraine, and it contained, for the first time, cluster munitions (as well as a signficant amount of other aid to help Ukraine with the counteroffensive. The Cluster Munitions, if you are interested, are the DPICM rounds on the list.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3451570/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

If you want to read more about them, you can start here.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44465526/why-is-the-us-sending-ukraine-cluster-munitions/

Now the Biden administration clearly did not want to make this decision. The Ukrainians have been asking for such munitions for a while, for the precise reason that they should be extremely effective/deadly to Russian forces in their defensive lines. Cluster munitions, as they are made up of large numbers of smaller explosives that can blanket a large area, can be extremely effective.

What are cluster munitions, why most countries ban them and why the US is  sending them to Ukraine

However, because of their controversial nature, the Biden Administration held off until now (though it can be said that the Turkish government might have supplied some previously). Why did the Biden Administration change position now? Because they have armed Ukraine in a specific way that makes a long, summer campaign necessary.

Ukraine was not provided the longer range systems (ATACMs, F-16s, etc) needed to degrade Russian forces enough before the counteroffensive. Thus Ukraine has been forced into this long summer getting ready for more direct assault. That both means Ukraine will need much more ammunition, but also its being faced with better prepared Russian forces. The ammunition question is one that both President Biden and National Security Adviser Sullivan (the big guns were wheeled out to defend this decision) mentioned publicly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/us/politics/ukraine-cluster-munitions-biden.html

In other words, the Administration was forced into this decision because of the way it deprived Ukraine of more effective systems earlier. Its a direct result of their decisions to hold back (out of fears of escalation one presumes) from giving Ukraine better systems earlier. It points out a truism for this and most wars, that actually lengthening them makes things far worse. In March 2022, I argued this publicly in saying it was much better to arm Ukraine effectively as soon as possible—as it would save lives and shorten the war.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama

We are now seeing the result of that decision to try and limit aid to certain stages (first yes you can get artillery, but no tanks; then you can get tanks, but no aircraft; then you can get aircraft—but we will slow the process as much as possible; and of course no ATACMS ever). This has made the war longer and nastier.

Maybe now people will understand that (it will be interesting to see if ATACMs are finally sent soon—there is some rumbling that this might happen). Ukraine should be aided to win the war as quickly as possible—as that will save lives and limit damage on all sides. The longer a war goes on, the more horrible it becomes. Hopefully people will understand that now.

Erdogan Snubs Putin

Yesterday there was real surprise when it turns out that after President Zelensky met President Erdogan in Turkey, that the Ukrainians returned to their country accompanied by the leaders of the Azov battalion that had spearheaded the defense of Mariupol in 2022. This led to some extraordinary celebrations in Ukraine.

Image

Geopolitically the really important thing was that Erdogan decided, without informing the Russians, to break an agreement on the Azov leaders. They were, it seems, to be kept in Turkey until the war was over. Erdogan, however, seems to have decided to snub Putin personally, by freeing the Azov leaders and letting them return to Ukraine in triumph.

It seems pretty clear that the Russians were not informed as their reaction was a combination of anger and disbelief. Basically the Kremlin admitted they were not consulted and that this move violated the initial agreement.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1677733579210489858?s=20

What does it mean? At a minimum that Erdogan has no fear of humiliating Putin (and believe me, this is a major humiliation). Its hard to think of a way to make the Kremlin seem more powerless. Secondly, however, it does seem to be a way for Erdogan to make some common cause with Ukraine—and indicates what the Turkish government sees in the future (Ukraine in NATO). Indeed, during the meetings with Zelensky, Erdogan mentioned that Ukraine should be allowed into NATO—which was quite something considering how Turkey has blocked Sweden for a while.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/07/world/russia-ukraine-news

This is a great way to segway into the last point.

Ukraine and NATO

Within the week of so much news, it might have missed your attention that the Portuguese government yesterday supported Ukraine joining NATO.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3733222-portugal-supports-ukraines-membership-in-nato-when-conditions-allow.html

Portugal is now the 23rd NATO country to support Ukraine joining the alliance. When added to Turkey, this is a great sign for the direction of travel. This does not mean that Ukraine will be allowed into NATO quickly, it will almost certainly have to be part of an overall peace deal. However what is happening is that the idea of Ukraine joining NATO is being normalized—and the idea that Russian security concerns could somehow stop it (the great cry of the realists before Feb 24, 2022) is being dismissed.

I think more and more people realize that Ukraine cant have a secure and prosperous future unless it is part of the alliance. That is all for the good.

 

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6 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Fire control is basically the same as I understand it, along with the computer targeting system.  I believe there are hardware changes, but I don't think that should really effect the already trained Himars crews.  

I assume that Ukraine's Himar teams are more experienced than most of our operators.  They are actively using the systems day in and day out with live ammo on real missions.  Anyone in the US armed forces have that kind of experience?

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I’ve been thinking about the April meeting reported, where persons tangentially attached to the Biden WH approached Lavrov, to explore possible terms for ending this. No CR; I have no problem with such explorations, precisely because of the result. Lavrov’s rejection of such discussions gives us info about the Putin mindset. 
 
Despite all the Russian trolls calling for talks and negotiations, Russia doesn’t want talks and negotiations. I think Russia just wants to undermine US support. Putin intends to keep on with this. He has one narrow path to victory- a long war where western (primarily US) support for Ukraine withers away. 
 
That is a miserable road for all of us to be on. The only good news, to me, is that just about every other possible unseen catalyst (Putin dying, Russian revolt, Ukrainian breakthrough, China dropping support) leads to Ukrainian victory. 

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9 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Phillips O'Brien's weekend update:

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-36-500-days?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1176440&post_id=134049631&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

more spoilered

  Reveal hidden contents

That being said, it is worth reflecting on how Ukraine has fought so well for its freedom, from being written off by most analysts (honest to God, most were wondering whether Ukraine could even muster an insurgency, let alone outfight Russia in a conventional war), to now having the initiative in liberating its territory.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama
 

 

The New Battle of Kherson

I wrote a substack earlier this week saying that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had entered a distinct second phase. Basically, the Ukrainians had attempted a operational maneuver breakthrough but the reality of modern war reared its head. Vehicles such as tanks are extremely vulnerable to a range of systems (mines, hand-helds, UAVs, artillery, etc) and pushing significant force forward in vehicles without command of the air is impossible.

After the opening ten days, however, Ukraine changed tactics and seems to have concentrated overwhelmingly on taking out Russian artillery/MLRS systems and their supporting structures. This includes their ammunition depots (a number of large ones went up in the last week, counterbattery radars, EW, etc).

The focus on Russian artillery is clear from Ukrainian claims of destruction. Basically the daily rate in the last few weeks is almost 200% larger than it has been over the last 500 days. That does not happen by accident.

What this new phase shows is that both this war, and Ukrainian decision-making, is following a course that was first forged in the liberation of Kherson Oblast (right bank of the Dnipro) last Autumn. At first Ukraine did attempt an assault on Russian lines in Kherson and, in a way very similar to what we just saw in Zaporizhzhia in June, they made slow progress and suffered losses. At that time the Ukrainians dialled down the direct assaults to save resources and limit casualties, and identified the Russian systems that they needed to destroy to succeed. In this case it was the bridges (and later pontoons) that were carrying supplies across the Dnipro to Russian forces. What the Ukrainians did was spend months hammering these supply lines (destroying the bridges) which eventually forced the Russians to pull out of the right bank entirely in November.

What Ukraine is doing now is similar intellectually but even more difficult (they dont have rivers to aid them by providing specific targets). They have identified what they need to neutralize on the Russian side to succeed, and now they need to try and take those outs. They are starting clearly by making Russian artillery a very high priority. They will probably stay on that for a while. When they feel they have done what they can here, they will switch to attacks on Russians forces in the lines.

This will take time—even months. Because war is so dangerous for the offensive side, and Ukraine doesnt want to waste its forces like the Russians did at Bakhmut for instance, they must proceed methodically to weaken the Russians before advancing. Its also the only Ukrainian option—because of the specific way that they have been armed. This brings up the next point.

Cluster Munitions

This week the Biden Administration released another list of military aid for Ukraine, and it contained, for the first time, cluster munitions (as well as a signficant amount of other aid to help Ukraine with the counteroffensive. The Cluster Munitions, if you are interested, are the DPICM rounds on the list.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama
 

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3451570/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

If you want to read more about them, you can start here.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44465526/why-is-the-us-sending-ukraine-cluster-munitions/

Now the Biden administration clearly did not want to make this decision. The Ukrainians have been asking for such munitions for a while, for the precise reason that they should be extremely effective/deadly to Russian forces in their defensive lines. Cluster munitions, as they are made up of large numbers of smaller explosives that can blanket a large area, can be extremely effective.

What are cluster munitions, why most countries ban them and why the US is  sending them to Ukraine
 

However, because of their controversial nature, the Biden Administration held off until now (though it can be said that the Turkish government might have supplied some previously). Why did the Biden Administration change position now? Because they have armed Ukraine in a specific way that makes a long, summer campaign necessary.

Ukraine was not provided the longer range systems (ATACMs, F-16s, etc) needed to degrade Russian forces enough before the counteroffensive. Thus Ukraine has been forced into this long summer getting ready for more direct assault. That both means Ukraine will need much more ammunition, but also its being faced with better prepared Russian forces. The ammunition question is one that both President Biden and National Security Adviser Sullivan (the big guns were wheeled out to defend this decision) mentioned publicly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/us/politics/ukraine-cluster-munitions-biden.html

In other words, the Administration was forced into this decision because of the way it deprived Ukraine of more effective systems earlier. Its a direct result of their decisions to hold back (out of fears of escalation one presumes) from giving Ukraine better systems earlier. It points out a truism for this and most wars, that actually lengthening them makes things far worse. In March 2022, I argued this publicly in saying it was much better to arm Ukraine effectively as soon as possible—as it would save lives and shorten the war.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.ama
 

We are now seeing the result of that decision to try and limit aid to certain stages (first yes you can get artillery, but no tanks; then you can get tanks, but no aircraft; then you can get aircraft—but we will slow the process as much as possible; and of course no ATACMS ever). This has made the war longer and nastier.

Maybe now people will understand that (it will be interesting to see if ATACMs are finally sent soon—there is some rumbling that this might happen). Ukraine should be aided to win the war as quickly as possible—as that will save lives and limit damage on all sides. The longer a war goes on, the more horrible it becomes. Hopefully people will understand that now.

Erdogan Snubs Putin

Yesterday there was real surprise when it turns out that after President Zelensky met President Erdogan in Turkey, that the Ukrainians returned to their country accompanied by the leaders of the Azov battalion that had spearheaded the defense of Mariupol in 2022. This led to some extraordinary celebrations in Ukraine.

Image
 

Geopolitically the really important thing was that Erdogan decided, without informing the Russians, to break an agreement on the Azov leaders. They were, it seems, to be kept in Turkey until the war was over. Erdogan, however, seems to have decided to snub Putin personally, by freeing the Azov leaders and letting them return to Ukraine in triumph.

It seems pretty clear that the Russians were not informed as their reaction was a combination of anger and disbelief. Basically the Kremlin admitted they were not consulted and that this move violated the initial agreement.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1677733579210489858?s=20

What does it mean? At a minimum that Erdogan has no fear of humiliating Putin (and believe me, this is a major humiliation). Its hard to think of a way to make the Kremlin seem more powerless. Secondly, however, it does seem to be a way for Erdogan to make some common cause with Ukraine—and indicates what the Turkish government sees in the future (Ukraine in NATO). Indeed, during the meetings with Zelensky, Erdogan mentioned that Ukraine should be allowed into NATO—which was quite something considering how Turkey has blocked Sweden for a while.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/07/world/russia-ukraine-news

This is a great way to segway into the last point.

Ukraine and NATO

Within the week of so much news, it might have missed your attention that the Portuguese government yesterday supported Ukraine joining NATO.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3733222-portugal-supports-ukraines-membership-in-nato-when-conditions-allow.html

Portugal is now the 23rd NATO country to support Ukraine joining the alliance. When added to Turkey, this is a great sign for the direction of travel. This does not mean that Ukraine will be allowed into NATO quickly, it will almost certainly have to be part of an overall peace deal. However what is happening is that the idea of Ukraine joining NATO is being normalized—and the idea that Russian security concerns could somehow stop it (the great cry of the realists before Feb 24, 2022) is being dismissed.

I think more and more people realize that Ukraine cant have a secure and prosperous future unless it is part of the alliance. That is all for the good.

 

My thought are pretty similar on weapons supply.

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

I’ve been thinking about the April meeting reported, where persons tangentially attached to the Biden WH approached Lavrov, to explore possible terms for ending this. No CR; I have no problem with such explorations, precisely because of the result. Lavrov’s rejection of such discussions gives us info about the Putin mindset. 
 
Despite all the Russian trolls calling for talks and negotiations, Russia doesn’t want talks and negotiations. I think Russia just wants to undermine US support. Putin intends to keep on with this. He has one narrow path to victory- a long war where western (primarily US) support for Ukraine withers away. 
 
That is a miserable road for all of us to be on. The only good news, to me, is that just about every other possible unseen catalyst (Putin dying, Russian revolt, Ukrainian breakthrough, China dropping support) leads to Ukrainian victory. 

Supply the weapons necessary for Ukraine to win.

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16 minutes ago, blacklab said:

If you want to discuss an election in the US head to the CR. 

Posts discussing that or replying to FartingMonk are going to result in some time off

Were the posts deleted or moved to a different thread?

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One of my go-to youtube analysts for the war in Ukraine put out a solid video on the ZNPP and the risk of disaster due to loss of power and/or water. It's a really good overview of the entire facility layout and thermal concerns, along with how russia may fuck with its stable operations

TL:DW - putin can do damage if he wants to, but it'll be an article 5 issue the second a NATO country gets a whiff of radiation. It's still a bit of a question mark, since putin is the one who can decide to destroy the NPP or not

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On 6/30/2023 at 3:08 PM, butthurt said:

 

Warning orcs get blowed up.

 

1 hour ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

Ok who can help me out? Who has a link to the video of the orcs in a boat, bad things happen to them, and the lead one goes way high up and does a flippity dippity on a fence…was like Tuesday? Need some easy laughs 

 

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1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

 

With that act Zelensky becomes the true leader of the free world. There isn't a president, pm, or whatever that can even approach the level of world wide respect. 

He's ready to drag his giant brass balls across all comers... so to speak.

Um, Zelensky is a damn fine leader, but the US President helped form a conglomerate of support that kept Ukraine in the fight.   One is not the leader of the free world when one's country is being occupied. 

 

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2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Kremlin now saying Putin met with Prigozhin days after he invaded Russia.

What a wild series of events. I have no idea how Kremlin power plays work.

Crazy

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-10-23/h_f8d56d1576a916100f8ccc3a9300f1b7

Quote

Wagner private military company chief Yevgeny Prigozhin met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin after his short-lived mutiny at the end of June, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday.

Putin held a meeting with more than 30 military commanders on June 29, and Prigozhin also attended, said Peskov during his daily call with the media. Peskov was responding to a report in the French newspaper Liberation, which said Prigozhin had been to the Kremlin since his abortive mutiny.

Quote

“Indeed, the President held such a meeting. He invited 35 people, [including] all unit commanders and the leadership of the campaign, including Prigozhin himself.” “This meeting took place in the Kremlin on June 29 and lasted for almost 3 hours. Its details are not known. The only thing we can say is that the President gave an assessment of the actions of the campaign at the front during the special military operation, as well as of the events of June 24,” Peskov said, referring latterly to the short-lived uprising during which Wagner troops marched towards Moscow.

“Putin listened to the explanations provided by the commanders and offered them further options for deployment and of further combat use," added Peskov. Last week, Peskov said the Kremlin had neither "the ability nor the desire" to track Prigozhin's movements.

 

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22 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Um, Zelensky is a damn fine leader, but the US President helped form a conglomerate of support that kept Ukraine in the fight.   One is not the leader of the free world when one's country is being occupied. 

 

Good point. Perhaps Golden Child of the free world is a better fit.

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Just now, utee94 said:

Inspiration to the Free World for damn sure.

Plus, he can play the piano with his penis.  That alone makes him a surly legend right there.

Only if the song is 'Moonlight' Sonata. Anyone can play Fred Schneider's Monster in my Pants.

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