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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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3 hours ago, elfenix said:

germany doesn't want to believe that their access to cheap russian raw materials is over. 

DE has been a disappointment. I was ignorant about how far Moscow had ingratiated itself into the German hierarcy. But maybe we should also consider the US and what we pay for our commitment to utilizing cheap Chinese labor? Seems like it's going to be difficult, to say the least, to reverse 50 years of shoveling our industrial needs over to 'em. 

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6 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Interesting thread on a new approach the Russians are using, at least partially based on Wagner tactics and a lack of available vehicles. Probably doomed to fail because... Russia, and are they just going to institute this without training?

 

Russia has left 1914 and is headed towards 1916.

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2 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

Not totally disagreeing with you, but this is the same argument that was made about Europe’s reliance on Russian oil. Admittedly, it’s easier to build pipelines than a tire manufacturing centers, but it’s doable given time and initiative. 

There’s a big difference between saying something is not doable and saying something is painful. Or saying something shouldn’t be done. I said the costs would be incalculable. And they are. 

Russia’s economic impact on Europe and the rest of the world is negligible compared to China. It’s a speck. Its impact in terms of fossil fuels is much larger than in other industries, obviously, but even there its impact on the world is not equivalent to China’s in a variety of economic segments.

Even with that we don’t understand all the ramifications of disentangling from Russia, even. Several countries in Asia have experienced blackouts because shipments of LNG have been diverted to European ports. The rise in costs in natural gas have led several - most notably Pakistan which just went 15 hours without power because of missing natural gas shipments - to turn to coal. In Pakistan’s case the development of their coal resource came with China’s help. 

No one thought about how disentangling from Russian fossil fuels would create blackouts in other markets as the supply chain shifted. And I doubt the calculus would have changed if they did, necessarily. The other cost that adds to is the global south’s reluctance to join the west in being against this invasion. They see a hypocrisy involved. Watching countries experience blackouts so Europe can have record gas storage is going to be a part of it. 

I’m trying to make sure I don’t go into too much detail regarding all the ways China is integrated into the economies of the world, but it’s not just manufacturing. The flow of money would be severely disrupted in ways that Russia is unable to make an impact. Their economy is too small and doesn’t have enough touch points. It’s basically grain and fossil fuels (and military exports). And yet that impact has been severe in the global south, even more so than in the west. If the war continues for a long time, there is no way to calculate what kind of impact that makes on world governments or their attitude towards the west. In other words...incalculable. But disentangling from China is a whole different ball game. It’s not that we don’t know what the costs will be. We don’t even know what we don’t know. 

None of this is to say it shouldn’t happen. China is not our friend. But it is to say we often issue cavalier statements on this thread that have a much greater impact in real life in ways we can’t even begin to fathom, and when that is pointed out by me - a statement I consider a blinding glimpse of the obvious - I’m told in no uncertain terms I’m an idiot and don’t know what I’m talking about. Which doesn’t really bother me. It happens all the time. It doesn’t change my conviction I actually do know what I’m talking about, and the people who love to be dismissive of my comments on this specific topic are the real idiots. 

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1 hour ago, Chopper said:

DE has been a disappointment. I was ignorant about how far Moscow had ingratiated itself into the German hierarcy. But maybe we should also consider the US and what we pay for our commitment to utilizing cheap Chinese labor? Seems like it's going to be difficult, to say the least, to reverse 50 years of shoveling our industrial needs over to 'em. 

No reason to leave Europe out of that equation, either. 

We’ve all become dependent on China’s historic double digit production growth to increase wealth across the globe. 

The good news is the invasion in Ukraine has exposed fault lines, and the Russians are so evil in the way they’ve prosecuted the war it’s overcome reluctance in some circles in ways it had a limited impact in 2014. 

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7 hours ago, statsman said:

It’s like they believe that the (Russian) victory over the Nazis is the key to understanding all of human history. In a pro-Russian way. 
 
The only thing I have seen like it is OKC Thunder fans describing the 2016 WCF, as if losing to the Warriors in seven is the key to understanding the NBA and settled the reputations of all in it. 

Aggy fans describing Johnny Manziel as the key to understanding why they are a major player in SEC football.

The fact that not only do they have a mindset that lives in the past (aggy and Russia) but in Russia's case, they look to have a wound-to-killed ratio approaching WWI (or earlier) is telling.  And the whole history thing is useful for Russia in terms of their soldiers suffering in Ukraine.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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4 hours ago, BamaATL said:

 

“This is not a threat. This is just a statement.”

That is so awesome. That’s how you win a game of chicken. Or it ends up being a head on collision, but either way, you’ve laid out what’s going to happen in no uncertain terms, and you’ve conveyed as clearly as possible “this is not a bluff.”

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7 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

The good news is the invasion in Ukraine has exposed fault lines, and the Russians are so evil in the way they’ve prosecuted the war it’s overcome reluctance in some circles in ways it had a limited impact in 2014. 

That is a solid point.   What still amazes me is the extent to which they lack complete self-awareness that their evil will be seen by others as evil.*  While Russia may not take a dump without a plan, the plan is always the same thing: lie about everything, even when the thing they are lying about is easily seen to be a lie.

This goes back to the lack of self-awareness as a culture. They seem to think that as long as we say we aren’t doing evil, everyone will agree they aren’t doing evil.   They are so used to their sheep populous not reacting to any lie, they seem to expect the same reaction from non-Russians - and are mad/surprised when called on their lying.  Just like corruption and lying hampers their military effectiveness, doubling down on easily provable lies detracts from the effectiveness of their foreign policy efforts in some respects.  See your point. 

Many gullible folks still drink the red Koolaid. Not saying it isn’t effective with some audiences. 


* or likely just don’t give a shit

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2 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Did a moron hack your account?

You really want to read nothollywoodcolt and other morons argue about a trade war with china has calculatable or incalculable effects and the flexibility of an average American compared to his 3 year old in a thread about Ukraine?

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Some of you guys are talking nonsense.

GDP in trillions

US $23

China $17.7

Russia $1.78

 

China is the world's #1 exporter. That means that tons of countries (and people) rely on goods from China. The U.S. economy could lose more than $1 trillion worth of production and long-term global competitiveness if the White House pursued a sharp separation with China.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/us-china-decoupling-would-cost-america-hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars.html

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Some of you guys are talking nonsense.

GDP in trillions

US $23

China $17.7

Russia $1.78

 

China is the world's #1 exporter. That means that tons of countries (and people) rely on goods from China. The U.S. economy could lose more than $1 trillion worth of production and long-term global competitiveness if the White House pursued a sharp separation with China.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/us-china-decoupling-would-cost-america-hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars.html

 

 

Not to mention the dollars used to purchase Chinese products aren't exactly buried in a hole. It's not just a matter of foregoing manufactured goods or the indirect importation of Chinese productivity growth. It's that the world operates with a certain expectation regarding the flow of money. Just like with the Lehman Brothers disappearing, interrupting that flow has uncertain consequences.

Which is not to say nothing should be done. 

It's similar in attitude to helping Ukraine even under the threat of nuclear reprisals from Russia. If you give in to those reprisals, they'll expect you to give in the next time, too. Of course, the opposite is true as well. If you make a threat, then don't carry through with it, it becomes harder to take that threat seriously the next time. 

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1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

I’m trying to make sure I don’t go into too much detail regarding all the ways China is integrated into the economies of the world, but it’s not just manufacturing.

The equation is changing, or starting to change, at least. China is pissed that the low or no interest loans they've made aren't being repaid. They're a bit fucked on that end because of the same reasons making loans to friends can come back to bite you in the ass.

Besides giving them our manufacturing, we've also handed them much of our IP. It's such a huge mess and I have no idea what the solution is. Too bad we allowed all those Fortune 500 companies to repatriate their earnings that were stuck overseas a few years ago, basically getting nothing as a country in return. Those would've made a lovely carrot.

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Wagner out-kicked their coverage?  Maybe, unconfirmed

Not sure what to make of this, artillery being moved further back and now into Crimea?  Mariupol ammo dumps been hit several times the last few days.

Maybe any concern over the Belarussians joining the fight has been overstated...

 

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50 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

That is a solid point.   What still amazes me is the extent to which they lack complete self-awareness that their evil will be seen by others as evil.*  While Russia may not take a dump without a plan, the plan is always the same thing: lie about everything, even when the thing they are lying about is easily seen to be a lie.

50 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

This goes back to the lack of self-awareness as a culture. They seem to think that as long as we say we aren’t doing evil, everyone will agree they aren’t doing evil.   They are so used to their sheep populous not reacting to any lie, they seem to expect the same reaction from non-Russians - and are mad/surprised when called on their lying.  Just like corruption and lying hampers their military effectiveness, doubling down on easily provable lies detracts from the effectiveness of their foreign policy efforts in some respects.  See your point. 

You're also talking about guys who are stealing toilets and washing machines and shipping them home.  They may very well think that it's not fair that the rest of the world is doing so well while they aren't, even though they've had their heads filled with propaganda about how great they are and how they saved the world 80 years ago.

The idea of an American (or British or French) soldier stealing a toilet or washing machine and trying to ship it home to his parents or wife because they don't have one back home is insane.  But we see it over and over with the Russians in Ukraine.

They are on a different level of existence than the rest of us, which probably explains why so many of them are willing to put up with so much shit.  When you come from a place where you don't have plumbing for indoor toilets and your wife/mother washes laundry by hand in a tub, the idea that you get to loot a more prosperous country is appealing.  And when you come from a place where everybody dips their hand in the cookie jar, whether it's local stuff or some dude(s) stealing or pretending to manufacturer 1.5 million winter uniforms, you aren't surprised when your weapons and military equipment are shit or non-existent because multiple people up the supply chain kept taking their portion.

That's another reason why Russia will continue to struggle to do much of anything - they needed to end the corruption in the military long before now, and starting from square one in the middle of a war going badly for you is not the time or place to try and reconstitute a capable supply chain, or restart manufacturing of weapons systems that probably shut down decades ago (or that actually did).  And we know that all of those idled plants and storage depots have been looted like crazy.

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19 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

 Read tweet below before playing the video. 

Also, the watermark is me with a laser pointer around any cat.

 

Even Ukraine's cats are fucking metal.  

My cat sits around the house, alternatively laying in a sunny spot or laying on Mrs.LL's lap.

Ukrainian cats eat the fucking Russians' souls.

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12 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

Interestingly enough, after the Soviet collapse there was high demand for all the old weaponry, which in turn lead at least in part to where we are now.  That was an economic bounce back for them.  After seeing the modern day performance, whatever is left once this is all said and done, who in their right mind is going to pay for it?  

I have a strange hobby of watching videos on abandoned places and their backstories on youtube, I just think its interesting.  I used to watch a guy in Russia and he would go all these fallout shelters and military industry that was abandoned.  It was sort of amazing just how much there is and how nothing has been done with these facilities.  To someone's earlier point, these are looted and not much is left, but you had to know at one point those were at least somewhat viable production facility.  What was striking to me is that in 30 years, absolutely nothing has been done with them.  

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2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Guys, this "Russia go fuck yourself" thread is awesome.  there's also a "WTF is wrong with you China" thread that's pretty good.  How about taking the China talk over there?

Huh I guess maybe if/once China starts supplying missiles, etc, as they've talked more about lately, you won't have to thread police so hard. edit to note, I have no idea what was going on in this thread up until 2 hours ago. But I'll let y'all get back to whatever it was. / CHOPPER DOWN!

Edited by Chopper
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Germany replacing Russian gas v. The Western World replacing Chin’s industrial base is not even close to the same thing.

The disappearance of Russian gas was dampened by the disappearance of China industrial production due to Covid shutdowns. Had the world economy been at pre-Covid production levels, the loss of Russian Oil & Gas production would have been much more $eriou$. The crushed energy demand, and a mild European winter, made the cutoff tolerable. 

The US, Russia & Saudi Arabia are the 3 largest producers of oil & gas, with #4 ~ maybe 30-40% of the smallest of the 3 big uns. The oil will find its way into the world market, it always does. The lost Russian gas has been replaced by redirecting LNG from asian markets to Europe.

With economic recovery, they are going to want it back. No economic recovery? No problem. Economic recovery comes with higher energy prices.

That is just the energy slice.

Replacing China’s Manufacturing industry?  The US exports polyethylene pellets to China and imports plastic; McDonald’s toys, car parts, phones, solar panels, everything.  It took China ~ 50 years? to get to this point.

That is much different than simply redirecting some waterborne LNG tankers.

China needs dollars, and we want/need cheap/inexpensive plastic shit.

China has seen a unified western world v. Russia. I don’t think they want any FAFO.

 

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3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I wonder if the homes in Russia have the plumbing necessary to integrate a toilet or washer?  Or if there will be some serious diy work ahead for these families. 

They’ll probably just set the toilets on the floor and shit in them until they’re full

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