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15 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Tend to agree. Don't see how the MOD can trust them with weapon systems at all, so integration of Wagner forces into the army is the way to go.  

Could also have been threats against his family and that of his senior leaders. Cannot believe they were still in Russia. 

@Pig Bellmont beat me to the family story! 

yeah true.  Based on what we've been able to discern Wagner had no idea this war would go so poorly.  When Pig started going rouge with his protestations , it backfired and he didnt get the support he wanted.  By then it would have been to obvious to have the families all start packing up.  He likely didnt plan that far in advance and  how could he pick and choose what key guys to have their families leave in a clandestine way...wives talk, certain relatives are there one day and gone the next, it would have been too big an undertaking to move that many key people out w/o FSB picking up on it.  At the end of the day (i hate when people say that lol), this war went from bad to worse and unraveled so methodically on these guys that i dont think they thought it would be the quagmire its become and everyone involved is so far in, they literally dont know what to do except just keep throwing more bodies at it.  Pig was like fuck this , we're out

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52 minutes ago, statsman said:

I’m coming around to thinking-

—Prighozin is no smarter than he looks. Putin gave him Wagner to make Prighozin rich, and to be loyal to Putin. Prighozin is a thug, not a soldier 
 
-some months ago, Prighozin fell out of favor, probably due to bitching
 
-Now, he will probably be dealt with. 

Do they have ice axes in Belarus?

 

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364DFB52-70FB-4F74-BD6F-E38CB3C0EF8E.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

yeah true.  Based on what we've been able to discern Wagner had no idea this war would go so poorly.  When Pig started going rouge with his protestations , it backfired and he didnt get the support he wanted.  By then it would have been to obvious to have the families all start packing up.  He likely didnt plan that far in advance and  how could he pick and choose what key guys to have their families leave in a clandestine way...wives talk, certain relatives are there one day and gone the next, it would have been too big an undertaking to move that many key people out w/o FSB picking up on it.  At the end of the day (i hate when people say that lol), this war went from bad to worse and unraveled so methodically on these guys that i dont think they thought it would be the quagmire its become and everyone involved is so far in, they literally dont know what to do except just keep throwing more bodies at it.  Pig was like fuck this , we're out

Wagner Family Reunion in Sharm Al Sheik. Then they split up from there, some to Dubai, some to Turkey, some to other places. 

There is a reason so many Latin American General's have their kids/wives in Miami and Houston! Well for safety, but also for mistresses. 

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

I’m coming around to thinking-

—Prighozin is no smarter than he looks. Putin gave him Wagner to make Prighozin rich, and to be loyal to Putin. Prighozin is a thug, not a soldier 
 
-some months ago, Prighozin fell out of favor, probably due to bitching

-Prighozin responded poorly to being ghosted by Putin. He spoke more and more out of turn, and acted out. Putin decided to shut the operation down. 
 
-Prighozin’s midnight run to Moscow was more successful than he could have ever imagined, exposing deep flaws in the Russian social compact. Putin realized before Prighozin where this could lead: a huge mess in Moscow and an ugly popularity contest. 
 
-Prighozin grabbed the offered lifeline, because things were getting too big for him, too fast. 
 
-Now, he will probably be dealt with. 

Wasn’t this asshole a fucking hot dog vendor before he became a mercenary leader?  How does one decide on that career transition?

3 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

^
That looks like a still shot from one of those late night ads for a truck driving school.  And a kick ass one, too! 

Truck Masters, I think it was. 

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10 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Wasn’t this asshole a fucking hot dog vendor before he became a mercenary leader?  How does one decide on that career transition?

Truck Masters, I think it was. 

Little known fact, Douglas MacArthur started the Varsity here in Atlanta prior to WW2.  *See note 1

I think his hot dog stand is both true and euphemistic.  He got out of prison and opened a hot dog stand, however, he was really a drug dealer, and he laundered the money thru the hot dog stand.  I have to imagine that money laundering in Russia isn't terribly difficult.  As he began to branch out in his criminal activities it allowed him to start rubbing elbows with other crooks, and then he came across Putin; time for next level shit.  Here we sit.  

 

 

Note 1 - Not at all true.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

He could, and yes, there are others who would love to step in. The issue is the deals are rarely with Russia, but direct with Wagner. For instance, the contract for Sudan is with the Sudanese transitional government and Wagner, with Russia's blessing. Do not know who brokered for the Libya venture. Have heard it is the UAE footing the bill. 

The failure for them was Mozambique and countering the insurgency. Both Wagner and Frontier (Erik Prince) failed. Now the Rwandan army with the blessing of the African Union and South African's are kicking some insurgent ass. 

If Prigo goes, his senior leadership will as well. Probably down to the Colonel level judging from previous purges in Russia. Rank and File just move to another PMC that Putin forms and pushes on the African Nations. 

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

His senior commanders also know the secrets of the state. That could be one reason he is still alive. Kill Prigo and they go public. 

Feels like we are at a point where Wagner could just break away from Russian and truly be a mercenary outfit without the Russian military trappings. Prigozhin surely has the resources stashed away (given how easily he was able to fool the FSB for weeks/months).

Then again, if Wagner breaks off, US Army Special Forces, French Foreign Legion, etc. might accidentally lump them in with other groups and eliminate them the way the Green Berets did in Syria.

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Feels like we are at a point where Wagner could just break away from Russian and truly be a mercenary outfit without the Russian military trappings. Prigozhin surely has the resources stashed away (given how easily he was able to fool the FSB for weeks/months).

Then again, if Wagner breaks off, US Army Special Forces, French Foreign Legion, etc. might accidentally lump them in with other groups and eliminate them the way the Green Berets did in Syria.

For something yes. For others, they rely on Russia, especially for recruiting. I guess they could set up a pipeline, train locals, etc, but no more ex-Russian SF. Another point is russia (MOD) sells these countries a lot of their spare parts/equipment and use MOD air assets to move it. Wagner could hire other aircraft, but the hard part is getting the equipment. 

My guess is another PMC takes over these contracts. They are lucrative and fund a lot of Oligarch hand outs from Putin. 

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

For something yes. For others, they rely on Russia, especially for recruiting. I guess they could set up a pipeline, train locals, etc, but no more ex-Russian SF. Another point is russia (MOD) sells these countries a lot of their spare parts/equipment and use MOD air assets to move it. Wagner could hire other aircraft, but the hard part is getting the equipment. 

My guess is another PMC takes over these contracts. They are lucrative and fund a lot of Oligarch hand outs from Putin. 

Anyone who starts to provide logistics and services for Wagner is going to be on the wrong end of a pissed off Uncle Sam. I can only see state actors with little to lose doing it . 

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5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Maybe formal union state? We will see. Will be funny as shit if they told Prigozhin “you can go to Belarus.” 

“Fool! Now Belarus also Russia.” 

I think they are going to declare their love for each other publicly, and that Prig is their adopted love child. So joint custody. 

4 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Anyone who starts to provide logistics and services for Wagner is going to be on the wrong end of a pissed off Uncle Sam. I can only see state actors with little to lose doing it . 

Arms embargo on Libya and Mali. A lot of equipment still getting in. UAE is full of IL's and Antonov's for hire. 

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4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, I do enjoy what the "conspiracy theory" crowd (also overlaps heavily with pro-Putin types) has to say.  From a comment on a friend's post (he's a weird friend):

See, guys...it's all a psy-op....the shooting down of Russian planes by Wagner was all fake video or something, I guess.  Wagner is going to shift to Belarus...and invade Ukraine from Belarus.  Which will work, because NATO is out of ammunition.  And Putin doesn't bluff (so, looking for the explanation of his spring to Kyiv....then withdrawal leaving behind a shitload of dead Russians and busted armor.)  We could "negotiate" and stop this (read: give Putin everything he wants, embolden and further empower him, and favor Russia).

Gave me a good chuckle this morning.

I bet this guy got lost in his own museum once.

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10 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Peskiv says the announcement will “determine the fate of Russia.” Usually this is so much hyperventilating but we will see. 

LOL that was bullshit. “Organizers” of the rebellion will be brought to Justice. Other Wagners can come home or sign contracts. Thanks to Lukashenko for helping out. It was the West’s fault. 

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2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

LOL that was bullshit. “Organizers” of the rebellion will be brought to Justice. Other Wagners can come home or sign contracts. Thanks to Lukashenko for helping out. It was the West’s fault. 

as usual a big nothingburger. dude is all bark and no bite. 

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14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

LOL that was bullshit. “Organizers” of the rebellion will be brought to Justice. Other Wagners can come home or sign contracts. Thanks to Lukashenko for helping out. It was the West’s fault. 

I'm shocked he mentioned that pilots died.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

Quote

Putin thanked the nation for unity, adding that all necessary decisions to neutralise threat were taken at the very beginning, and "the mutiny would have been suppressed anyway, organisers realised their actions were criminal". Putin told Russians those who staged the "mutiny" wanted Russia to lose "and our society to drown in blood, but they miscalculated".

He went on to thank all security services "who stayed loyal to their oath" as well as pilots who died. He added that steps were taken to avoid major bloodshed, "but it took time". "I thank Wagner soldiers and commanders who did not shed blood - you can sign a contract with the Ministry of Defence, or move to Belarus," he said.

So Wagner forces who don't sign will end up in Belarus with Prigozhin

Staring George Costanza GIF

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Okay, well back to the front.

 

translation: Another clear work of drone operators of the 30th brigade of the Armed Forces to destroy the occupiers in the Donetsk direction.

 

translation: Two podors (insult that I won't type here) from the Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group tried to cross the state border of Ukraine in the Sumy region.

Ukrainian sniper loves the word: "Denazification".

 

 

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49 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Feels like we are at a point where Wagner could just break away from Russian and truly be a mercenary outfit without the Russian military trappings. Prigozhin surely has the resources stashed away (given how easily he was able to fool the FSB for weeks/months).

Then again, if Wagner breaks off, US Army Special Forces, French Foreign Legion, etc. might accidentally lump them in with other groups and eliminate them the way the Green Berets did in Syria.

It was regular army, not Green Berets or any other special forces. 

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7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Okay, well back to the front.

 

translation: Another clear work of drone operators of the 30th brigade of the Armed Forces to destroy the occupiers in the Donetsk direction.

 

translation: Two podors (insult that I won't type here) from the Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group tried to cross the state border of Ukraine in the Sumy region.

Ukrainian sniper loves the word: "Denazification".

 

 

I guess it shouldn't surprise me that in the first one that soldier climbed over his dying buddy to get to cover and didn't even try to help him (although he was probably dead either way).

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4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This is the first time I've had a tweet that won't embed; maybe because it's Girkin?

Anyway, it shows (possibly Wagner or civilian) trucks getting bombed on a highway. Big boom.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1673362657347338242 

 

 

It got flagged as age restricted content. That's why it won't embed.

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17 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This is the first time I've had a tweet that won't embed; maybe because it's Girkin?

Anyway, it shows (possibly Wagner or civilian) trucks getting bombed on a highway. Big boom.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1673362657347338242 

 

 

Farmers Insurance:

FARMERS%20Hall%20of%20Claims.png?width=6

"Well...wait...we haven't seen THAT."

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4 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

How strongly tied to Lukashenko is the Belarusian military?  Because inviting Wagner in seems like it might piss some people off. 

 

They're useless to even overthrow someone like Lukashenko. Hertling labeled them as by far the worst military in Europe and it wasn't close, which I'm sure is by design.

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