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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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2 hours ago, Ted Dantzler said:

As someone who went on TWO dates with a Ukrainian refugee I'll add my insight. 

She had a law degree and worked for the government for a couple of years then a western company doing web design or something. Her family left Kiev right after the invasion. 

Me: So explain the relationship between Russia/Ukraine. You speak both languages, are your countries like cousins or what?

Her: Fuck Russia. The only reason I speak Russian is because they made us in school. 

....10 minutes later

Me: So how did you end up in KC of all places? 

Her: Well my cousin, who is russian (rolls eyes) lives here so I'm staying with him. He came over when he was 4 so he's alright.

Her parents came over too but after it was clear the russians weren't going to take Kiev they went back because according to her dad "I'm going to die one day, if its during a missile strike so be it" 

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1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

I just watched this on Reddit. It was similar to a Mexican cartel execution video. I don’t understand the language and I’m not going back to watch it again to look for details and clues on their uniforms, so I can’t confirm with 100% certainty that they were Chechens. But they were filming the execution, so yeah, I’m going with Chechen. The “traitor” was a Russian paratrooper wearing the traditional blue and white striped shirt which is red by the end. 

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2 minutes ago, Foggy Notion said:

I just watched this on Reddit. It was similar to a Mexican cartel execution video. I don’t understand the language and I’m not going back to watch it again to look for details and clues on their uniforms, so I can’t confirm with 100% certainty that they were Chechens. But they were filming the execution, so yeah, I’m going with Chechen. The “traitor” was a Russian paratrooper wearing the traditional blue and white striped shirt which is red by the end. 

Yeah others are questioning it too.

the point is that this Wagner-Putin spat is far from over.

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That video emphasizes why Russians are predominately apathetic and passive.

Some of them chose to follow Pringless and now they will be tortured and murdered. 

Pickles used Wagner and those that would follow it for his own purposes, then betrayed a lot of people that are now going to die brutal deaths. 

Better for the average Russian to stay out of the game of thrones, because the serfs are the ones that pay the price when the person they follow betrays them. 

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On 6/24/2023 at 6:07 PM, The Dog said:

This whole thing has been like an OU crimson vs cream spring game. The offense kicks the defense’s ass, half the observers predict a national championship because of that O, half think they are going to collapse because of that D.  In reality, all we really know is that ROUssia sucks.

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Threats to Pringles' family would help explain his pulling back, but I think that he wasn't able to get his hands on any of the nukes at Voronezh, and that undercut his position, too, making it entirely untenable.  Seems to me that even one nuke would be enough of a threat to stay in the game.  Then, again, if he had a nuke but no way to trigger it, it would not be much of a bargaining chip.

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1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

I'm sort of surprised I haven't seen this mentioned around much, but Putin is going to do what every dictator does when they get scared; he's going to start killing people, a lot of them.  He has to reestablish fear if he is to maintain his position (and his life).   In order to do so, there will be a wave of death and it will be public and brutal.  If he takes it too far, then maybe it comes at him like a whirlwind, but make no mistake, he's going to start killing lots of people.  

I sure as hell wouldn't want to be in the FSB right now.   

When he starts the pogroms, will anyone around actually follow his orders? Or will they just lie to him and tell him they've been done, while doing something else entirely different?

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1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Interesting, I presume weapons, but who knows

Could also be moving raw materials to avoid sanctions, or could be that they are getting ready for something in the Black Sea that would affect Russian shipping in some way since those ships in theory would also be suitable for the Black Sea.  I'd like to know where they are transferring them from though - the only places I can imagine "river-sea" boats being useful for them is the Black Sea, Caspian, and the Baltic.  Sure, they have some large lakes, but not so large that trains would be a better option (especially in winter since those lakes I'm thinking of are north of Moscow).

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1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Threats to Pringles' family would help explain his pulling back, but I think that he wasn't able to get his hands on any of the nukes at Voronezh, and that undercut his position, too, making it entirely untenable.  Seems to me that even one nuke would be enough of a threat to stay in the game.  Then, again, if he had a nuke but no way to trigger it, it would not be much of a bargaining chip.

All he would need is a few smaller nukes, and the threat of "be a real shame if the Chechens or the Ukrainians or the West or the anti-Assad groups in Syria got them", but that's one of those things that would probably push Putin into a massive push to eliminate all of Wagner and their families, and that would be an easy sell by Putin to the Russian people.

I would assume that Prigozhin's family has been safely out of Russia for some time, but if some of the upper leaders of Wagner had families that were rounded up, then it would only be a matter of time before one of them killed Prigozhin in order to free their family, or Putin threatened Prigozhin's family whether in-country or out-of-country.

The family thing could be the missing link in all of this.  

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

All he would need is a few smaller nukes, and the threat of "be a real shame if the Chechens or the Ukrainians or the West or the anti-Assad groups in Syria got them", but that's one of those things that would probably push Putin into a massive push to eliminate all of Wagner and their families, and that would be an easy sell by Putin to the Russian people.

I would assume that Prigozhin's family has been safely out of Russia for some time, but if some of the upper leaders of Wagner had families that were rounded up, then it would only be a matter of time before one of them killed Prigozhin in order to free their family, or Putin threatened Prigozhin's family whether in-country or out-of-country.

The family thing could be the missing link in all of this.  

Obviously I wouldn't make it long in the Mafia or as a Russian oligarch.  Laid out like you did, I can see where possession of a nuke for Prigozhin would be more of a bargaining chip with the West that with Putler.

I think that Prigozhin is a worm feast before the end of July, whatever chips he may have.  No one in Belarus is going to get in the way of anyone who comes to drink some tea with him, or show him the view from the top floor.

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10 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Obviously I wouldn't make it long in the Mafia or as a Russian oligarch.  Laid out like you did, I can see where possession of a nuke for Prigozhin would be more of a bargaining chip with the West that with Putler.

I think that Prigozhin is a worm feast before the end of July, whatever chips he may have.  No one in Belarus is going to get in the way of anyone who comes to drink some tea with him, or show him the view from the top floor.

I didn't think of that, but yeah it would have been a better bargaining chip with the West, however I don't know if the rank-and-file Wagner would along with it.

Prigozhin is dead.  Maybe his family first, but he's definitely dead, and yeah, in the next month.  Putin isn't going to let him fade from sight, and the fact that Russian state Tv is already talking about he should be executed, they are floating that out there.

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

All he would need is a few smaller nukes, and the threat of "be a real shame if the Chechens or the Ukrainians or the West or the anti-Assad groups in Syria got them", but that's one of those things that would probably push Putin into a massive push to eliminate all of Wagner and their families, and that would be an easy sell by Putin to the Russian people.

I would assume that Prigozhin's family has been safely out of Russia for some time, but if some of the upper leaders of Wagner had families that were rounded up, then it would only be a matter of time before one of them killed Prigozhin in order to free their family, or Putin threatened Prigozhin's family whether in-country or out-of-country.

The family thing could be the missing link in all of this.  

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Yeah, I mean, the logical outcome for Prigozhin now is death.  Even if he was given some assurances of personal safety, how could he expect someone like Putin or his allies to honor that?  He is walking sign of Putin's weakness, and until he is put down violently and visibly, everyone sees Putin as a powerless paper tiger. There is no way Prilosec lives, there's no way he doesn't know that, and there is no way anyone would willingly submit in that scenario unless A) he had a fear greater than his own personal death instilled in him or B) this insurrection is not what it seems (riddle inside an enigma etc...)

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Grain of salt considering the source on the latter, but even if it's half that it would put them on pace for loses of 10k per month (20k for face value).  I've seen estimates of Russians in country at anywhere from 250k to 400k.  In either case, that's a huge number and each passing week and month the exponentially greater in terms of thinning their lines.  The Ukrainian plan to continually attrit them is working, even if slowly.  

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Ukraine is way more patient than any one of us would be.  America is all, "F*ck yeah!  Blitzkrieg those motherf*ckers!  KILL 'EM ALL!!!"  Easy to do when you have a bottomless supply of weapons and materiel.  Not so easy when you're depending on the largess of others.   

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1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

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On the one hand, Shoigu is "safe" for Putin, in that he'd never move against Putin, and has been a part of Putin's inner circle for a while.

On the other hand, Putin needs a scapegoat for the clustergoatfuck that just happened over the weekend, and the FSB needs to redeem itself in both his eyes, and the eyes of the nation for completely missing Prigozhin's would-be March to Moscow, and in general, Putin needs an overall scapegoat for why, 17 months into his 3-day Special Military Operation, not only is Ukraine on the offensive all over the place, but Putin's own private army got close to Moscow, and was cheered on by a lot of Russians.

But then, going back to the first/one hand, Shoigu is "safe" for Putin.  What if Putin replaces him with somebody who is competent?  That's bad for Ukraine, but also bad for Putin, because he's now seen that cults of personality are still a thing in Russia.  Plus, Putin has purged generals in the past who he was afraid of.  He gets somebody in there that's competent and therefore would make the troops happy, his ex-KGB paranoia that was fueled by Prigozhin's betrayal  is going to rear its ugly head.

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Putin’s downfall is only delayed. It’s coming

Prigozhin’s attempted coup failed, but it still shows that the Kremlin regime is now a mere shell

RICHARD KEMP25 June 2023 • 8:03pmRichard Kemp
 

Vladimir Putin’s short-term Special Military Operation to bring Kyiv to heel has escalated into a two-front war with his control slipping away. He was having enough trouble on the Ukrainian front, with an enemy that refused to buckle, backed by unexpectedly obdurate allies. His own army has been exposed to the world as a rotting façade rendered inadequate by decades of complacency and corruption.

Prigozhin’s abortive coup d’etat has now opened up a home front that has similarly exposed the regime’s weakness and the vulnerability of the country’s internal security. Prigozhin was able to seize and hold Moscow’s command centre for the entire Ukraine war without a shot being fired. His heavily armed mercenaries could then advance hundreds of miles towards Moscow, largely unmolested, and with reports of Russian soldiers surrendering in their path. On the way to Moscow, Wagner forces reportedly shot down seven helicopters and a transport plane – if true, one of the deadliest days for the Russian air force since the war in Ukraine began.

As with the recent incursions from Ukraine into Belgorod, the Kremlin lacked forces to secure even key targets inside Russia. They had to depend on another private militia, Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechens, who apparently sent 3,000 men from Ukraine to confront Wagner. Moscow’s critical vulnerability will not be fixed without withdrawing already stretched forces from the front line.

 
 

As we have seen so often in Ukraine, Russian forces are unable to respond to unexpected crises without orders from above. This helps explain why Prigozhin’s men could get as far as they did. That those stop orders were not forthcoming exposes Putin’s weakness. His desperation to avoid violent clashes between Russian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries led to paralysis in the Kremlin accompanied by a frantic search for a way to shut Prigozhin down without bloodshed, eventually pressing Belarus’s Lukashenko into action. It’s not likely Putin cared about casualties on either side, but he did care about the potential disintegration at the front line caused by violent insurrection on the streets of Moscow or the roads leading to it. His address to the nation comparing this uprising to the collapse at the front in 1917 revealed his inner fears.

Putin brought all this upon himself, most significantly by his ill-judged invasion and an inability to take effective action when it all started to go wrong. But also by his Machiavellian divide-and-rule policy that allowed the convicted criminal Prigozhin to build a powerful private army.

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The Wagner leader has for months raged with impunity against government ministers and military commanders responsible for fighting the war. He went further and further without being checked, and the events of the past few days were the inevitable consequence of the failure to bring him under control or get rid of him.

Putin’s ill-judgment can surely only be explained by the psychological toll of an unwinnable war taken on a man hitherto thought of by many as a political and strategic genius.

That aura has now vanished. Along with it, the reputation of an iron leader who cannot be crossed has gone, as he pardons the Wagner insurrectionists and, for the time being at least, allows their humiliated leader to scurry off into exile in Belarus.

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The many Kremlin watchers who until now believed Putin was beyond any internal challenge have been proved wrong. Prigozhin may have left the stage, but his actions have exposed Putin as a mere mortal. The Moscow elites, who have for decades depended on strong leadership, are now watching a regime falling to pieces. Calculations of self-preservation will have taken over from fear and respect for an infallible leader who brought them stability. Some have been hedging their bets with their own private armies.

All of this throws the sharpest spotlight on the other front. A successful Ukrainian counter-offensive, that may have greater chances as a result of the turmoil inside Russia, could edge us closer to Putin’s downfall, which in turn might lead to the collapse of the Russian army.

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5 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

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I go to LA Fitness with my wife, and I have even told her, and she agreed, that should she no longer be here or something unthinkable like that; that the Yoga class is easily the most fertile ground for a guy like me in his mid 40s.  Plenty of ladies in middle life who look like they probably aren't very satisfied with life and looking to have some fun.  Younger fellas, if you want a cougar experience, this is the place.  

Stay away from that Zoomba class bullshit, those people look crazy.  

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