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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Not a Kinzhal after all?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine

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The War Zone hasn't yet been able to geolocate the supposed target using commercial satellite imagery that matches what is seen in the video, which appears more like a large above-ground warehouse or barn. There’s also a distinct lack of secondary explosions as one would expect when rocket fuel and explosives cook-off. It’s still possible a Kinzhal hit the base, but the video is suspect at a minimum.

 
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UPDATE: 5:20 PM EST—

We can now say for certain that the strike depicted happened nowhere near the western part of the country and not at some major military weapons storage area. It happened at a heavily bombarded rural area in the far eastern area of Ukraine:

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With all this in mind, it is very unlikely we are seeing a Kinzhal missile being used in the video. Whether or not one was used at all, we cannot answer that. Maybe there was another target somewhere, but this was not it. 

 

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1 hour ago, Nivek said:


It would be pretty funny if Ukraine ends up annexing territories formerly of Russia though.

Don't think they will attack outside their borders, but would take as much territory in the Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine as they could possibly hold.

NATO backed its welterweight against the heavyweight. We helped the welterweight put on a few "pounds" to make it a fair fight. I don't think that is unreasonable. Up to this point, NATO just wants this to be a fair fight, no hits under the belt. The heavyweight is hitting them in the balls, and asking their buddies to jump in. 

CHIEF

Edited by CHIEF
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6 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

If these military tribunals occur, there needs to be some very serious consequences for anyone presiding over them.

you may rest assured that as long as Russia has nukes and China, not one goddamned consequence for Russian leadership will come of it.  Unless you consider a strongly worded letter and confiscated yachts consequences. 

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15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah.  At this point, Ukraine needs to just keep destroying Russians and their vehicles inside of Ukraine, and NATO needs to keep up the supplies.

If Belarus actually commits to trying to drive to Lviv, they'll get torn apart even faster than the Russians in Eastern Ukraine are now since they will be facing fresh troops that have been waiting around for Belarus to attack (and that will have been monitoring Belarus's troops every step of the way), and that will suck up vehicles and supplies from Belarus that the Russians could have used to backfill their losses in Eastern Ukraine.

I'm still iffy about whether Belarus will even commit or not.  He needs his military to stay in power, and Russia is gonna need those supplies/vehicles at some point.

If Belarus decided to join I think that a targeted Allied strike on the forces joining the fight would be a interesting— and realistic if risky— response.  Belarus and Russia cooperate but they do not have a mutual defense agreement like Article 5.  A long distance strike, if it could be done without targeting Russian forces, would demonstrate the consequences of joining the fight while also making clear that it’s not Allied opportunism to grab Belarus or instigate regime change. 

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7 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

If these military tribunals occur, there needs to be some very serious consequences for anyone presiding over them.

They’re going to occur. I feel like this is one of those threats that’s pretty cost free to implement and Putin has a pattern of doing the terrible things he says he will.  And the Russians badly need to find some Nazis to show the world. So I think this will happen to any Mariupol defender left alive, and likely any Mariupol local politician. 
 

And this is interesting because the reality is that Azov is in Mariupol and we know that Azov has lots of neo-Nazi types in its ranks. But here’s the deal— they’ve written a lot of horrible shit online, and have gross tattoos and contemptible private opinions. But they haven’t DONE any Nazi shit.  No war crimes against minorities. No abuses of civilians. No illegal tactics.   The worst you can actually pin on them is filming POWs, and that’s pretty weak sauce under the Conventions. Misdemeanor level by analogy. 

And they have every right to fight and defend Mariupol as official, uniformed elements of Ukraine’s military. 
 

So we will see what actual charges will be thrown against them. My guess is they’ll be falsely accused of using human shields to try and dance around Russia’s own war crimes.  So in Mariupol you have some dudes with neo-Nazi opinions behaving legally and the “anti-Nazi” Russians actually doing all the crimes.  Schrodinger’s fascists, I guess. 

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33 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If Belarus decided to join I think that a targeted Allied strike on the forces joining the fight would be a interesting— and realistic if risky— response.  Belarus and Russia cooperate but they do not have a mutual defense agreement like Article 5.  A long distance strike, if it could be done without targeting Russian forces, would demonstrate the consequences of joining the fight while also making clear that it’s not Allied opportunism to grab Belarus or instigate regime change. 

The Belarus army sucks and is totally unmotivated. And it gives the West a great opportunity to end the war. I think a joint operation with volunteers and the Ukranian army could cut the advance pretty quickly if we prepared (when we first heard about it 3 weeks back). Since the Belarus population is not pro-Russian and doesn't like its leader, I would suspect that there would be an uprising there. What would Russia do then? It would have to divert troops.

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Russia is trying to lure people back home. I know personally of one academic who starred a fellowship in Central Europe the weekend before his ATM and credit cards got turned off.  A former participant in a U.S. government exchange program.  Yeah, he’s not going back.

“All citizens of Russia studying abroad who have been confronted with a violation of their rights can return to Russia and continue their studies at leading universities in the Russian Federation…(list of Moscow and St. Petersburg schools)


image.thumb.jpeg.320a57ab973fac72bca2636a65bf5b28.jpeg

 

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3 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Is Bert a common Taiwanese name?

Taiwanese and Chinese who have English names usually have very proper British sounding English names, not the US Western or fancy spelling names of that the US parents like to name their kids. There are no Dylan, Dillon, Dyllon, Dylan, Dyllyn, Brooklin, Brooklyn, Brookln, Dakota, Wyoming, and shit in Chinese and Taiwanese English names.

Many William, Constance, Wilbert, Henry, Elizabeths. Hardly any one syllable names. One syllable names are for stupid kids. Ergo, I'm scratching my head at Bert. Maybe he's trying to dumb down for his American counterparts?

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10 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Taiwanese and Chinese who have English names usually have very proper British sounding English names, not the US Western or fancy spelling names of that the US parents like to name their kids. There are no Dylan, Dillon, Dyllon, Dylan, Dyllyn, Brooklin, Brooklyn, Brookln, Dakota, Wyoming, and shit in Chinese and Taiwanese English names.

Many William, Constance, Wilbert, Henry, Elizabeths. Hardly any one syllable names. One syllable names are for stupid kids. Ergo, I'm scratching my head at Bert. Maybe he's trying to dumb down for his American counterparts?

Did some detective work and may have found a clue in bold. 

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28 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Taiwanese and Chinese who have English names usually have very proper British sounding English names, not the US Western or fancy spelling names of that the US parents like to name their kids. There are no Dylan, Dillon, Dyllon, Dylan, Dyllyn, Brooklin, Brooklyn, Brookln, Dakota, Wyoming, and shit in Chinese and Taiwanese English names.

Many William, Constance, Wilbert, Henry, Elizabeths. Hardly any one syllable names. One syllable names are for stupid kids. Ergo, I'm scratching my head at Bert. Maybe he's trying to dumb down for his American counterparts?

the british don't have a connection to taiwan.  perhaps you're confusing taiwan and hong kong.  i know many taiwanese - both my parents' generation (60 and 70 y.o.) and my generation (30 and 40 year olds) who have one syllable english names.  

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4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

And this is interesting because the reality is that Azov is in Mariupol and we know that Azov has lots of neo-Nazi types in its ranks. But here’s the deal— they’ve written a lot of horrible shit online, and have gross tattoos and contemptible private opinions. But they haven’t DONE any Nazi shit.  

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8 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

the british don't have a connection to taiwan.  perhaps you're confusing taiwan and hong kong.  i know many taiwanese - both my parents' generation (60 and 70 y.o.) and my generation (30 and 40 year olds) who have one syllable english names.  

well then no wonder China wants to invade Taiwan.

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So... I "know" one person from Ukraine, a model that has done some work for my company. No pics, I'm not doxxing her or me. I sent her $1000 to help get her and her family out of Kharkiv. She made it to Poland along with 2 million other refugees, where she reported that there are no apartments to rent and no jobs. She moved on to Croatia this weekend for hopefully greener pastures. I imagine this is taking place all over Europe but it's a fucking haul to get to the US. Also.... my great grandparents immigrated to the US from Khiv. I never met them, but I owe them more than I could ever imagine.

You should cross post in the Sugar Babies thread. Airfare to the US would be covered by lunchtime.
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