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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

In a war with Russia, Kyiv isn't in a great spot. Lviv would be a better place as a capital. Things may change but as of now, Odessa, Lviv, and Kyiv are the cities which can be revitalized the fastest. Mariupol is obviously just rubble. There isn't any revitalizing to be had there.

Lviv isn't heavily damaged, neither is Odessa.  Kyiv took a lot of punches, but it's fixable.  Mariupol....gone.  Kharkiv....fucked beyond belief.  Smaller towns like Irpin and Bucha....all but gone.

If they had done this to Austin, or Round Rock, or San Antonio, and I had anything close to the means.....I'd never stop killing Russians.  Ever.

Edited by Brisketexan
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15 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

 

Good friend and neighbor (also a Longhorn) is a higher up at Lockheed Martin.  Interestingly, we were talking last week and he commented that they can only build what they have capacity to build (implying that they were already at capacity so he didn't expect their revenues to jump as a result of the hostilities).

But I would think they'll scale up based on increased demand.

Well sure, but they won't hafta offer year end discounts.  Might even be able to sell over list.

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40 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm thinking that a new element to join every battlefield element (convoys, rear staging areas, etc.) will be some sort of close-in-weapon-system meant to detect and take out multiple small airborne targets -- like a scaled down Phalanx system:

 

j7_V4b.gif

 

I mean, it's either that or get me and all my dove hunting buddies out there with 10 gauges with a big-ass magazine.  And fair warning, some of us are mediocre shots.

Some of us is doing a lot of lifting in this post. 😉 

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25 minutes ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

A phalanx would be awesome though!

We have the C-RAM. Would be cool to mount it so it is mobile. Ya know some R&D folks are thinking. Maybe a Sgt. York that does not suck. 

The 20mm Land-Based Phalanx Weapon System (also called C-RAM) is a land-based variant of the U.S. Navy's Phalanx close-in weapon system, a radar-controlled rapid-fire gun for close-in protection of vessels from missiles.[1] Both use a forward-looking infrared (FLIR) camera to allow their operators to visually identify incoming fire before opening fire. But while naval Phalanx systems fire tungsten armor-piercing rounds, the C-RAM uses the 20mm HEIT-SD (high-explosive incendiary tracer, self-destruct) ammunition, originally developed for the M163 Vulcan air defense system. These rounds explode on impact with the target, or on tracer burnout, thereby greatly reducing the risk of collateral damage from rounds that fail to hit their target.

PM C-RAM developed and successfully tested a system similar to Iron Dome.[2]

Edited by InkaUtexas
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2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

We have the C-RAM. Would be cool to mount it so it is mobile. Ya know some R&D folks are thinking. Maybe a Sgt. York that does not suck. 

The 20mm Land-Based Phalanx Weapon System (also called C-RAM) is a land-based variant of the U.S. Navy's Phalanx close-in weapon system, a radar-controlled rapid-fire gun for close-in protection of vessels from missiles.[1] Both use a forward-looking infrared (FLIR) camera to allow their operators to visually identify incoming fire before opening fire. But while naval Phalanx systems fire tungsten armor-piercing rounds, the C-RAM uses the 20mm HEIT-SD (high-explosive incendiary tracer, self-destruct) ammunition, originally developed for the M163 Vulcan air defense system. These rounds explode on impact with the target, or on tracer burnout, thereby greatly reducing the risk of collateral damage from rounds that fail to hit their target.

PM C-RAM developed and successfully tested a system similar to Iron Dome.[2]

So basically a flack gun.

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Among many lessons, the Russians have proven something that should concern us:  future enemies don't have to take out our Abrams or whatever we replace the Abrams with.  They just have to take out the APCs, fuel trucks, ammo trucks, etc. because there is no way in hell that we will be armoring all of those things to the level that would resist a Javelin.

The logistical tail has always been a soft spot for as long as there’s been recorded history, and it has never required javelin type weapons to take them out. An army travels on its belly. In fact, one of the things that made the Huns so devastating was their ability to conduct campaigns without such a tail as they could forage as they went. Main battle tanks are a little more needy. Anyway, the above statement isn’t any revelation to war planners.

The proliferation and development of hunter/killer drones does change the game though. How to counter those with either active protection systems, some form of jamming or drones that hunt other drones will probably be the next big leap.

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Might want Switchblades maker stock instead.
            cmnZjZFf_normal.jpg     Michael Weiss    @michaeldweiss · 17m   And when DoD saw the breadth of its domain it wept, for there were no more Russian tanks to destroy. Quote Tweet             EuSuuTqD_mini.jpg   Jack Detsch   @JackDetsch · 2h NEW: The Pentagon plans to buy fewer Javelin anti-tank weapons than two years ago, despite giving more than 4,600 of the missiles to Ukraine's military to fight Russia. DoD plans to buy 586 Javelins in the upcoming year, down from 866 buys of the tank-busting weapon in FY2021.

Or likely they don’t need them with all of the Russian tanks getting taken out.
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59 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  Thus my motivation to never stop killing Russians.

And yes, I am aware that I am speaking from a deep and dark internal place that may be uniquely my own.  And if Ukraine wants to have a Ukraine for its next generation.....then killing every Russian on their soil is the only way to guarantee that.  Russia decided to start an existential fight.  It should be fought as one.

I don’t mean this in a snarky way: I’m glad you’re not in charge. 

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3 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

I don’t mean this in a snarky way: I’m glad you’re not in charge. 

Oh, me too.  I have my place and my role.  In this context, it would surely not be the peacemaker.

But then again, I don't think anyone can have that role now.  Read this tweet:

 

 

Putin speaks only one language: death.

So.....speak it to him.  Fluently, and with vigor.

With some people, there is no negotiation.  Only bitter, costly fighting, beyond all comprehension or acceptability, but necessary just the same.  Putin has chosen that path.  Thinking that he will waver is a fool's errand.  Putin will stop only when you are dead, or he is dead.  Them's the rules he has set.  So play to win.

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1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

It's good for every Ukrainian infantry to have an anti-tank weapon. It's priceless for Russian tankers to think that every Ukrainian infantryman has an anti-tank weapon. Can't hide in the woods or the village, they'll get you with an RPG. Can't feel safe out in a field because a Javelin will get you, or they'll crawl up a gully your own seemingly non-existent friendly infantry failed to notice, and get you with an RPG anyway.

or a drone will drop a bomb from the sky while you sleep.  FAFO

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1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Why did they block before?  Was it just the destabilizing notion of admitting them?  

I believe the thinking was that if Russia had annexed Crimea/had troops there ,and was working to destabilize the other areas, that it would be difficult to admit Ukraine under conditions where Russian forces were, officially or not, acting to undermine the government/territorial integrity of Ukraine.

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2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

well they still have plenty of these and some old JS-1's I am sure. 

image.png.9206f35e8d94ac7f0200e60a1fb60834.png

You'd be better off with a pickup truck, a .50 BMG, and some Javelins, because I can't imagine what would be needed to get those tanks not only working, but keeping them working, and I'm assuming they would not have the mechanics who could do that.

Plus, those things would probably get damaged by lesser anti-tank weapons.

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You'd be better off with a pickup truck, a .50 BMG, and some Javelins, because I can't imagine what would be needed to get those tanks not only working, but keeping them working, and I'm assuming they would not have the mechanics who could do that.

Plus, those things would probably get damaged by lesser anti-tank weapons.

I know man, I am kidding. But they are losing a lot of their most modern tanks. So what is going to back them up? 

 

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3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

brisket, and you, and I, don't have any say in the matter.

But I can tell you how likely I'd be to capitulate, if the same thing were happening here in Texas.  If Mexico or the Russians via Mexico or any other aggressor, had invaded my country, shelled the apartment complex where my grandparents live and killed them, gunned down my wife and children in the streets, I wouldn't surrender until I'd killed every last one of them, or I'd die trying.

You keep coming at it like it's a negotiation.  It's not.  It's life or death.  And every word out of dickface putin's mouth, is a lie.  He has no intention to stop, ever.  If he halts the invasion now, if he agrees to a ceasefire or even a treaty,  it's only because he wants to regroup and try again later.   Ukraine has already learned this the hard way, in 2014.  They're not likely to make the same mistake again.  There can be no negotiations with Russia.  There can only be killing.

This isn’t a Liam Neeson movie. I don’t think you’d be so willing to prolong the fighting after your wife and kids were dead if it meant the wives and kids of all your friends and neighbors were killed too. In fact, that would be a pretty shitty thing to do. 

Everything Putin says is a lie, including the last quote that Brisket posted. Also: he has nuclear weapons. 

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1 hour ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

I’ve been out over a decade so I would only be speculating. The Army was pretty behind on this topic though when I was in. We had a Naval Officer assigned to my unit to just help us jam cell phones, radio signals, garage door openers, etc. The Navy and Air Force have been playing this game a long time though so I’m sure grunts have something at this point. Hopefully.

I work for a big tech company, but I work with a small team that focuses on Analytics and AI/ML workloads. We released a software product about 18 months ago with very little fanfare that is designed to do real time analytics on data streams. It's a tool, not a complete solution, but it has real promise in the IOT and Edge space. Shortly after release, we put up some pre-recorded webinars on our website, and about a week later I got a call from one of our DOD reps that the CG of the 82nd Airborne wanted to hear more about the software and had given us a couple times/dates for an initial meeting. We put together a virtual meeting ASAP, and General Christopher Donahue himself was the first person on the call. We spent two hours with him and his technical team just throwing questions rapid fire to a couple of our engineers, and when the call wrapped up, he asked us how soon we could get to Bragg for a workshop. The first use case they identified in the workshop? Finding drones. He said they weren't worried about large Military Grade UAVs, but commercially available units like DJI and Mavic that could be used for intelligence gathering and target spotting. Based on what Ukraine is doing, his concerns seem to have been well founded. 

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Just now, Buzzrock said:

This isn’t a Liam Neeson movie. I don’t think you’d be so willing to prolong the fighting after your wife and kids were dead if it meant the wives and kids of all your friends and neighbors were killed too. In fact, that would be a pretty shitty thing to do. 

Everything Putin says is a lie, including the last quote that Brisket posted. Also: he has nuclear weapons. 

You don't know anything abut me. 

And it's not up to you.  Or the US.  Or NATO.  It's up to Ukraine.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, utee94 said:

brisket, and you, and I, don't have any say in the matter.

But I can tell you how likely I'd be to capitulate, if the same thing were happening here in Texas.  If Mexico or the Russians via Mexico or any other aggressor, had invaded my country, shelled the apartment complex where my grandparents live and killed them, gunned down my wife and children in the streets, I wouldn't surrender until I'd killed every last one of them, or I'd die trying.

You keep coming at it like it's a negotiation.  It's not.  It's life or death.  And every word out of dickface putin's mouth, is a lie.  He has no intention to stop, ever.  If he halts the invasion now, if he agrees to a ceasefire or even a treaty,  it's only because he wants to regroup and try again later.

This isn't new, it's not novel or unique.  Ukraine has already learned this the hard way, after 2014.  They're not likely to make the same mistake again.  There can be no negotiations with Russia.  There can only be killing.

Utee gets it.

Remember how a lot of your grandfathers who served talked about the Japanese?  And those were just combat troops they met and fought in remote places.  Imagine that they fought them in their own American streets, in the rubble of their former homes.

Nope.  I'd never forget, never forgive, and never stop pushing back.  Ukraine will not be safe until Russia is no longer a threat to do what it has openly said it will do -- extinguish the state, its people, and its identity.  You don't negotiate with that.  Not again.  Not after centuries of this.  You go for the kill, and you don't stop until you get it.

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Interesting catch 👀

Direct hit with an RPG by a horde tank during the fighting in Mariupol.

Recently, a tactical sign - a crossed circle - has been attracting attention. This sign was used by the Russian occupiers not so long ago.

The moment of destruction of the Russian Mi-24/35

Burned Russian armored car "Lynx" on the outskirts of Trostyanets. In fact, it is an IVECO LMV, which was practically assembled from Italy to Russia, where bumpers and a nameplate were screwed on.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-soldier-raped-me-then-the-other-as-my-son-cried-7xbqwzdqw

‘Russian soldiers raped me as my terrified son cried’
The woman whose case could be the first heard in a war crimes investigation tells Catherine Philp in Kyiv what happened

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16 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

or a drone will drop a bomb from the sky while you sleep.  FAFO

All these thoughts mean that tankers will spend every spare moment far from their tank, making them poorly-trained lightly-armed infantry accompanied by a big metal pet that gives away their presence.

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42 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

The logistical tail has always been a soft spot for as long as there’s been recorded history, and it has never required javelin type weapons to take them out. An army travels on its belly. In fact, one of the things that made the Huns so devastating was their ability to conduct campaigns without such a tail as they could forage as they went. Main battle tanks are a little more needy. Anyway, the above statement isn’t any revelation to war planners.

The proliferation and development of hunter/killer drones does change the game though. How to counter those with either active protection systems, some form of jamming or drones that hunt other drones will probably be the next big leap.

They've always been a soft spot (unless your the Huns as you said or William Tecumseh Fucking Sherman going through Georgia), but now you have off-the-shelf drones with off-the-shelf grenades that can threaten your rear area with no real risk, financial or troop-wise.  

As mentioned earlier, we aren't going to be in a situation where anybody is charging through the Fulda Gap with tanks, but we are going to have to thread the needle on dealing with a power such as China (or Russia LOL) where they might have a large drone infrastructure that includes stand-off, AI-powered suicide drones like the Switchblade, combined with really lethal anti-air and anti-tank weapons carried by individual soldiers.  And then you have say an Iraq or Afghanistan where within 5-10 years they could have Switchblade knock-offs which are smaller, and may not even need to be controlled remotely.

It's going to create a need for additional soldiers/units assigned to larger units (battalion level I would think) that are going to have to be fairly large in terms of equipment to support the anti-drone systems.  C-RAMs aren't going to be enough.

Defense planners are going to have major headaches going forward. 

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

And if you're going to have a fixed gun emplacement, might as well go with self-propelled artillery that is still mobile, but unlike tanks, can be very effective while still being miles behind the forward units.

Among many lessons, the Russians have proven something that should concern us:  future enemies don't have to take out our Abrams or whatever we replace the Abrams with.  They just have to take out the APCs, fuel trucks, ammo trucks, etc. because there is no way in hell that we will be armoring all of those things to the level that would resist a Javelin.

And that's just talking about Javelin/Javelin-like weapons.  We haven't even touched on armed drones.  Which is ironic, given that we have decades worth of using drones or UAVs or whatever you want to refer to them as.  The Ukrainians have done some amazing stuff with off-the-shelf components (commercial drones and grenades normally wielded by anti-tank infantry).  Now fast-forward to the Chinese or India or whoever taking those ideas and scaling them up just a bit.

There is going to be a huge paradigm shift in the coming years.  And I hate the term "paradigm shift", but it's true.  We will have to be concerned with hard-to-spot drones flying into our rear areas and hitting vehicles, depots, troop congregations, etc.

a) As the saying goes:  Amateurs talk tactics.  Professionals talk logistics.  Trust me, logistic lines are of HUGE importance in the planning of anything we would do.

ii) With the drones, counter UAS is a HUGE thing in the industry, both military and commercial.  Knowing some folks who have worked on the military side, there's a lot of scary things we can do for C-UAS.

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9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Rough for the family members, but a lot of these soldiers are volunteers so FAFO.

That is very fucked up.

It does feel like we are at the point that Ukraine is just destroying an opponent that should just tap out.

The Ukrainian army doing flying elbows and shit.

spacer.png

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A few friends are doing some crazy ass shit with UUVs and they say it's going to make submarines and even the navy become obsolete in a decade or two.  Those things are beginning to really be able to self learn and navigate.  You basically are going to have a drone/torpedo hybrid that costs a million bucks and can't be detected or stopped taking out billion dollar capital ships.  That's fucking scary.

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6 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

A few friends are doing some crazy ass shit with UUVs and they say it's going to make submarines and even the navy become obsolete in a decade or two.  Those things are beginning to really be able to self learn and navigate.  You basically are going to have a drone/torpedo hybrid that costs a million bucks and can't be detected or stopped taking out billion dollar capital ships.  That's fucking scary.

Yep. Know a few of those as well. Not getting into it, but DAAAAMMMMMMMNNNNNN it is scary what they are working on. No human is going to be flying an X-Fighter like in the movies. 

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5 scenarios mentioned above (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/28/russia-ukraine-putin-war-what-happens-next/)

  • A Bloody Stalemate
  • Partition of Ukraine
  • Decisive Victory (one way or another)
  • Peace Agreement
  • Black Swan Event (use of chemical or nuclear weapons, Putin's ouster)

This seems to be a common theme of discussion - and that Julia Ioffe YouTube video I posted last week gets into this, and it ties into the Black Swan Event mentioned above (use of chemical or nukes):

Quote

Putin’s own thinking remains a wild card, leading many to question the lengths he is willing to go to salvage Russia’s position in the war. Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center and founder of the analysis firm R.Politik, said she could think of no previous instance when Putin had been truly backed into a corner as a result of one of his gambits. “We don’t have any experience to say how Putin will behave in such a situation,” she said.

 

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18 minutes ago, F250 said:

That is very fucked up.

It does feel like we are at the point that Ukraine is just destroying an opponent that should just tap out.

The Ukrainian army doing flying elbows and shit.

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Yeah, that guy is a piece of shit. He's basically torturing a civilian.

Cue the resident Walter Mittys to go "but, but, but," to which I say "true, true, true, and that guy is still a piece of shit."

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
  • A Bloody Stalemate
  • Partition of Ukraine
  • Decisive Victory (one way or another)
  • Peace Agreement
  • Black Swan Event (use of chemical or nuclear weapons, Putin's ouster)

My rankings in order of how it goes down. 

1- Trench warfare and the destruction of cities continues. 

2- Eastern coastal zones and the separatist zones, perhaps part of the NE. Russia pulls back from their western incursion. Kyiv sits on the front lines, but has access West. Part of the UA government moves west. 

5- Accident at Chernobyl. Putin moves in to protect the environment of Belarus and Ukraine, leads to #1. 

3 Putin takes over, calls it victory and tries to get sanctions removed. (with part of 2 thrown in) 

4- Don't see this under current conditions. Peace means the loss of his empire. 

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3 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Yeah, that guy is a piece of shit. He's basically torturing a civilian.

Cue the resident Walter Mittys to go "but, but, but," to which I say "true, true, true, and that guy is still a piece of shit."

Does it demoralize the Russian parents more, knowing that not only did their son die, but some Ukrainian is on his phone talking to them, or does it just piss them off and make this support the war?  I'm trying to go through scenarios and it seems like it's got to be a gut punch to the parents when they hear Putin or the Russian news media talking about how this is all necessary, and meanwhile they are getting phone calls from the guys who killed their son.

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Glad to see the Russians are throwing separatist fighters in as cannon fodder.  Fuck them. They knew there was a chance that Russia would just casually throw them into the meat grinder.  They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into.  And as others pointed out, this maybe why Ukrainian forces are doing even better in certain areas - getting poorly trained militia types as their target practice.

 

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I've been wondering whether anyone has analyzed of the rate of Russian losses, like the OSInt guys or Rob Lee etc. All else being equal, it would seem that as Russia's losses mount, morale degrades, supplies run out etc. the rate of their losses would increase. I know that "all else being equal" is a fiction in the fog of war, as Russia stops advancing and digs in, and so forth. 

Anyway I decided to look at Ukraine's claimed numbers put out through the Kyiv Indepenent. But, their Twitter only went back to March 12, but thats about halfway through the conflict so it works. Here's what it shows. As of March 12, Ukraine claimed that Russia had lost:

12,000 troops, 58 planes, 83 helicopters, 362 tanks, 585 other vehicles, 1,205 armored personnel carriers, etc

As of March 28, Ukraine claimed Russia has lost

17,000 troops, 123 planes, 127 helicopters, 586 tanks, 1,150 other vehicles, 1,694 armored personnel carriers

Not a ton to be gleaned from that info, but if that info is true, it would indicate Russia's losses have slowed slightly since March 12.

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