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Chinese Coronavirus

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1 hour ago, Armybrat said:
 

The US would still be in the environmental impact study phase

We’d have to account for the air pollution resulting from all the cremations.

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FWIW

A lady in Pittsburgh that’s currently quarantined for two weeks after coming home from what was supposed to be a 3 month* trip to a village in China:

“My friends in China had friends who worked in the hospital and said ‘These numbers you’re seeing aren’t the truth. It’s much worse. These crematoriums in Wuhan are burning 24/7.’”

Edited by heso

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4 minutes ago, heso said:

A lady in Pittsburgh that’s currently quarantined for two weeks after coming home from what was supposed to be a 3 morning trip to a village in China:

How was she not going to be in China for the day, evening, and night? I’m accepting this as evidence that teleportation testing is occurring.

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4 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

How was she not going to be in China for the day, evening, and night? I’m accepting this as evidence that teleportation testing is occurring.

Three Morning Trip sounds like a badass band name!

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2 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Three Morning Trip sounds like a badass band name!

Avatar checks out. 

edit: for both of us...

Edited by heso

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12 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

The scary part is that more than likely it is already taken hold in N Korea and could ravage 60-80% of their population due to their lack of legitimate medical facilities or supplies and the inability for China to provide them at the current time.

 

Does Rocketman reach out to S Korea or the US for help and what chaos will ensue if the virus spreads to their ruling class or worse Rocketman himself.

By cynical measures, NK has "too many people."  Kill off 1/3 of them and the rest might be better off.  It is posited that Europe benefited in such a way after the Black Plague.

ETA

What I'm saying is, Rocketman won't ask for help, and will be glad lotsa people die.

Edited by Parliament

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5 minutes ago, XYZ said:

The US would still be drafting the RFQ.

or sole source to an Eskimo company with no past performance. But they know a guy who knows a guy who went to china once. 

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18 minutes ago, Parliament said:

By cynical measures, NK has "too many people."  Kill off 1/3 of them and the rest might be better off.  It is posited that Europe benefited in such a way after the Black Plague.

ETA

What I'm saying is, Rocketman won't ask for help, and will be glad lotsa people die.

When this hits the Norks, it will be seriously bad news for them. Their people are probably in much worse shape than China's. 

Edited by NotActuallyALonghorn

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48 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

When this hits the Norks, it will be seriously bad news for them. Their people are probably in much worse shape than China's. 

...only probably?

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10 hours ago, Bevo said:

So is it confirmed that you can't catch this thing in a hot tub?

this is nearly a two decade old callback. well fucking done.

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21 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

this is nearly a two decade old callback. well fucking done.

 

You were probably teaching in Japan and posting on Hornfans under the same damn username. If you were still in college, shoot me now.

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3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 

You were probably teaching in Japan and posting on Hornfans under the same damn username. If you were still in college, shoot me now.

no, we are old. i was in my late 20s at the time. was on the cutting edge of OTT video, watching the 2005 season in the middle of the night via slingbox, that was connected to a friend's STB. came back over christmas, though, and went to the rose bowl and watched vince do his thing for the second year in a row, this time for the title. 

now i feel old.

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2 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I bet this thing wipes out half the population of the planet.

no way we're that lucky.

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3 hours ago, heso said:

“My friends in China had friends who worked in the hospital and said ‘These numbers you’re seeing aren’t the truth. It’s much worse. These crematoriums in Wuhan are burning 24/7.’”

Most of us have assumed that you add a zero to the infected numbers - the Chinese were admitting from the beginning that they didn’t have enough testing capacity, and that only those in hospitals were being tested.   Plus, as soon as new hospitals came online, they were filled up.   And for those following along with the released stats, the daily numbers clearly showed the bottleneck was testing.  

With that said, the death numbers are probably not too far off - we’ve had 607 infected internationally, and only 3 died.  Less than 1%.  And of those three, two were ethnic Chinese backgrounds, who had been in China.  The third, in Japan, was an elderly woman in her 80s.  So she was behind the curve from the beginning.  

The Chinese have some receptor things that make them medically more vulnerable to these viruses than other groups.    Those in the Hubei/Wuhan areas are also exposed to shitty air pollution, and many are smokers, all of which make it easy for the virus to kill a lot of them.  

BUT!  Hubei/Wuhan have 52,000 out of the 64,000 cases, and have 1,300 dead out of 1,380 overall deaths.   That’s 95% of all deaths.  And  that 1,300 is equivalent to 2.5% of the 52,000 infected in Hubei (the mortality rate has to be compared to recovered+deaths, I’m  just saying that that is an outsized number compared to everywhere else).  

So if you add a zero, and we say 520,000 infected, all of the sudden, that 1,300 deaths falls in line with death rates outside of Hubei.  

And Hubei (58million people) normally has 1,500 people dying everyday from non-beer virus related causes.   Adding 100+ deaths a day to the mix would mean some of the crematoriums were a little busier than normal, especially since they probably have specific crematoriums handling the corona victims.  

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circling back to the "jumping through walls" thing.  the story got transmogrified from a known problem.

in east asia, and china especially, plumbing is very much a DIY thing.  plumbing standards/codes are poor.  so when the people on the 4th floor remodel their bathroom with aggy skillz, shit literally flows in to the walls below them.  then when the 4th floor people contract and take a shit, welp, that's where the story came from.

and this is a widespread problem.  very wide.

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1 hour ago, hayden_horn said:

no, we are old. i was in my late 20s at the time. was on the cutting edge of OTT video, watching the 2005 season in the middle of the night via slingbox, that was connected to a friend's STB. came back over christmas, though, and went to the rose bowl and watched vince do his thing for the second year in a row, this time for the title. 

now i feel old.

I still love your video from the time you were Santa in Japan that winter:

 

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I’m supposed to travel to South America in three weeks, and I’m thinking that there’s a >0 probability that international travel will be totally fucked up by then.

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27 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’m supposed to travel to South America in three weeks, and I’m thinking that there’s a >0 probability that international travel will be totally fucked up by then.

You'll be fine, they'll have the MAX back in service by then.

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More great news. 

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — It’s possible to get infected by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a second time, according to doctors on the frontline in China’s city of Wuhan, leading to death from heart failure in some cases.

The claim is made by doctors working in the Hubei Province capital that is at the center of the epidemic, which has to date infected 64,201 people and killed 1,487. One of the doctors reached out to a relative living in the United Kingdom, who then informed Taiwan News.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

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37 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

More great news. 

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — It’s possible to get infected by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a second time, according to doctors on the frontline in China’s city of Wuhan, leading to death from heart failure in some cases.

The claim is made by doctors working in the Hubei Province capital that is at the center of the epidemic, which has to date infected 64,201 people and killed 1,487. One of the doctors reached out to a relative living in the United Kingdom, who then informed Taiwan News.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

 

84d825c1adf756c2d43df621ef89b6366c49af98

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2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

More great news. 

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — It’s possible to get infected by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a second time, according to doctors on the frontline in China’s city of Wuhan, leading to death from heart failure in some cases.

The claim is made by doctors working in the Hubei Province capital that is at the center of the epidemic, which has to date infected 64,201 people and killed 1,487. One of the doctors reached out to a relative living in the United Kingdom, who then informed Taiwan News.

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

That article was the suck. Just accept that it behaves similar to other viruses.

I stopped reading at:

According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”

What meds are they giving? There is no monoclonal antibody developed for treatment. Plasma from recovered victims? Corticosteroids to help improve lung function? The HIV drugs we talked about pages back? Maybe "the antibody" is the patient's own immune system. I don't know. But, just assume that this virus behaves like other viruses and you will be better off.

 

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6 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

I bet this thing wipes out half the population of the planet.

I’ll take that bet. Problem is one of us will be dead so good luck on either of us collecting. 

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13 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are there many viruses that you CAN get twice? Seems odd to me.

Not from the same strain.

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26 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Not from the same strain.

I read somewhere that there are already two strains in China. I suspect there are over a million infected in China already and if it continues doubling every 6 days there could be a billion infected by the end of April. We should start seeing lots of new strains.

As the CDC has said, this virus is likely here to stay. 

I will add that I realized something I ordered on-line that I thought was local is actually being shipped from China. Dr John Campbell's recommendation was to put any packages from China in a safe place for a month to make sure the virus is dead before opening it. And wash you hands after handling the package.

Edited by RayDog

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The mortuary report from the earlier linked video said they had seen an increase since January 26th and was 4 to 5 times normal as of 4 days ago. They had 127 bodies that day and cremated 116. In a city of 11 million there should be ~400 deaths a day, so this mortuary represents  1/12 to 1/15th of the total capacity, which implies 1000-1500 excess deaths per day. 60% of bodies were not coming from hospitals. Extrapolating from that would mean 15,000 to 30,000 total excess deaths since January 26. Some friends have heard even higher estimates extrapolating from mortuary reports.  

If one million people were infected and had the disease long enough to die of pneumonia or other complications (~12 days)  that is a death rate of 1.5% to 3%. If it is still doubling every 6 days then 4 million would be infected now with most being in the early stages of the disease. Since 5 million left Wuhan before the quarantine there should be ~6 million left in the city, so a majority of those may be infected unless they have remained totally isolated.

I find  that some death rates are estimated to be as low as 0.3%, which does not fit with the mortuary extrapolations. Some of  that may be due to the success of medical treatment versus home treatment for those who develop pneumonia in places with good medical resources. 

It may be years before this gets sorted out, but, to me, extrapolating from such a worse case scenario is still necessary.

 

Edited by RayDog

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I read somewhere that there are already two strains in China. I suspect there are over a million infected in China already and if it continues doubling every 6 days there could be a billion infected by the end of April. We should start seeing lots of new strains.
As the CDC has said, this virus is likely here to stay. 
I will add that I realized something I ordered on-line that I thought was local is actually being shipped from China. Dr John Campbell's recommendation was to put any packages from China in a safe place for a month to make sure the virus is dead before opening it. And wash you hands after handling the package.
So stop ordering shit off of Amazon and short it?

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47 minutes ago, Updawg said:
2 hours ago, RayDog said:
I read somewhere that there are already two strains in China. I suspect there are over a million infected in China already and if it continues doubling every 6 days there could be a billion infected by the end of April. We should start seeing lots of new strains.
As the CDC has said, this virus is likely here to stay. 
I will add that I realized something I ordered on-line that I thought was local is actually being shipped from China. Dr John Campbell's recommendation was to put any packages from China in a safe place for a month to make sure the virus is dead before opening it. And wash you hands after handling the package.

So stop ordering shit off of Amazon and short it?

I ordered from Lazada not Amazon.

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