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DT: COVID-19 - NO POLITICS ALLOWED

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 I know everyone wants to hear good news and I’m all for optimism.   I do believe things will eventually get better.  I just can’t tell you when. 


You can tell me. I'm a doctor.

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12 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

In places like Texas, we never even had a curve to flatten...we locked down very early in the viral process.  The infection and death rate on May 1 is the baseline rate for our definition of essential businesses, as we'd been sheltering in place for 5+ weeks by then.  Most geographies tell a similar story.  If you argue the essential business net was too wide, I'd probably agree with that, but our spike has been damn near non-existent.

I can't really square that with the idea that we didn't take it seriously.

We are two weeks from being NY you moron!!

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33 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yeah your response is complete bullshit. The lockdowns and trillions of lost dollars prove you completely wrong, as far as intent anyway.

You might not agree with the steps or think they're enough, but you're out of your mind if you think people haven't taken this seriously.  If it were nothing more than a an "economic irritation and inconvenience," then not one municipality, county, or state would have taken the steps they have to help prevent the spread and flatten the curve.

I really tried to give you the benefit of the doubt, but it's quite possible you're the biggest fucking moron on this entire forum, and that is REALLY saying something,

yep. the interesting thing is if NY/NJ hadn't decided to send covid positive patients to nursing homes during the 15 day lock down...dumbass yankees.

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Just now, Incredulity said:

We are two weeks from being NY you moron!!

NY? I wish we were going to be NY..  We are 5 days from becoming Italy!!

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51 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yeah your response is complete bullshit. The lockdowns and trillions of lost dollars prove you completely wrong, as far as intent anyway.

You might not agree with the steps or think they're enough, but you're out of your mind if you think people haven't taken this seriously.  If it were nothing more than a an "economic irritation and inconvenience," then not one municipality, county, or state would have taken the steps they have to help prevent the spread and flatten the curve.

I really tried to give you the benefit of the doubt, but it's quite possible you're the biggest fucking moron on this entire forum, and that is REALLY saying something,

He is OK with the destruction just as long as said destruction can be blamed on Covid19.  He doesn’t want to acknowledge the greater destruction caused by the shutdown.  Some people just enjoy watching the world burn.  

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Hpara759 said:

just wait until they get all the workers tested at the plant in Cactus......

Just wait until they work through the prisoner testing, which they are starting to test all prisoners, whether they have symptoms or not.

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/nearly-7k-asymptomatic-texas-prisoners-and-staff-tested-for-covid-19-in-first-3-days/

 

Edited by atomheartbevo

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8 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

In places like Texas, we never even had a curve to flatten...we locked down very early in the viral process.  The infection and death rate on May 1 is the baseline rate for our definition of essential businesses, as we'd been sheltering in place for 5+ weeks by then.  Most geographies tell a similar story.  If you argue the essential business net was too wide, I'd probably agree with that, but our spike has been damn near non-existent.

I can't really square that with the idea that we didn't take it seriously.

As long as your local and surrounding areas are prepared to rapidly respond to an outbreak, I think it would be a manageable risk.  

The thing is, by the time you are made aware of an outbreak, there should be some kind of plan in place to do things like slow travel within the area. 

How the population behaves will determine the likelihood of localized outbreaks and their intensity.  This is an unknown variable but if everyone goes back to normal all at once, it’s reasonable to assume an outbreak will happen sooner then later.

Texas got lucky because the outbreaks in NYC and New Orleans were early warnings.  The virus is nowhere near contained though and there is no cure or treatment. Also, we still don’t know everything there is to know about this virus. 

I live in Louisiana but close enough to Texas to know that how Texas responds will effect how it will go for my area.  I want this shit gone with the quickness but I also know the best way there without making more serious sacrifices is to stay vigilant and stay at home a lot until people aren’t getting killed by this in ugly numbers. 

 

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here it comes.  the CDC's flu/estimation game is going to get a hard look

https://www.foxnews.com/health/u-s-weekly-coronavirus-mortality-rate-20-fold-greater-than-influenza-study

Covid turns to pneumonia count it Covid

Flu turns to pneumonia count it pneumonia

avg estimated CDC pneumonia deaths 50K-55K

avg estimated flu deaths CDC around 35K-40K

actual case reported flu deaths closer to 7K

This is really interesting below from a doctor - Request for correction and on the HHS.gov website

https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-—-influenza-deaths-request-correction-rfc

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

As long as your local and surrounding areas are prepared to rapidly respond to an outbreak, I think it would be a manageable risk.  

The thing is, by the time you are made aware of an outbreak, there should be some kind of plan in place to do things like slow travel within the area. 

How the population behaves will determine the likelihood of localized outbreaks and their intensity.  This is an unknown variable but if everyone goes back to normal all at once, it’s reasonable to assume an outbreak will happen sooner then later.

Texas got lucky because the outbreaks in NYC and New Orleans were early warnings.  The virus is nowhere near contained though and there is no cure or treatment. Also, we still don’t know everything there is to know about this virus. 

I live in Louisiana but close enough to Texas to know that how Texas responds will effect how it will go for my area.  I want this shit gone with the quickness but I also know the best way there without making more serious sacrifices is to stay vigilant and stay at home a lot until people aren’t getting killed by this in ugly numbers. 

 

its funny how we keep getting lucky in Texas...

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3 hours ago, Michael Knight said:

That's petty easily solved by giving those people money.  A simple and elegant solution.  Far cheaper to do that then fixing the next outbreak

At the earliest, there's no second round of stimulus checks coming until late June or early July.  I'd put it at better than 50% we are not even getting a second round between now and the fall.

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2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Except when it comes to football.

ooooh sick burn!

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6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

As long as your local and surrounding areas are prepared to rapidly respond to an outbreak, I think it would be a manageable risk.  

The thing is, by the time you are made aware of an outbreak, there should be some kind of plan in place to do things like slow travel within the area. 

How the population behaves will determine the likelihood of localized outbreaks and their intensity.  This is an unknown variable but if everyone goes back to normal all at once, it’s reasonable to assume an outbreak will happen sooner then later.

Texas got lucky because the outbreaks in NYC and New Orleans were early warnings.  The virus is nowhere near contained though and there is no cure or treatment. Also, we still don’t know everything there is to know about this virus. 

I live in Louisiana but close enough to Texas to know that how Texas responds will effect how it will go for my area.  I want this shit gone with the quickness but I also know the best way there without making more serious sacrifices is to stay vigilant and stay at home a lot until people aren’t getting killed by this in ugly numbers. 

Maybe, but you seem to be taking a pretty extreme view of what returning to normal means.  The notion that an outbreak approaching NY is even possible now is silly.  We're not going back to jammed subways and bro hugs with fellow season ticket holders at Knicks games.

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32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Just wait until they work through the prisoner testing, which they are starting to test all prisoners, whether they have symptoms or not.

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/nearly-7k-asymptomatic-texas-prisoners-and-staff-tested-for-covid-19-in-first-3-days/

 

Inmates self testing...lol.....just how many false negatives can you count

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18 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

Maybe, but you seem to be taking a pretty extreme view of what returning to normal means.  The notion that an outbreak approaching NY is even possible now is silly.  We're not going back to jammed subways and bro hugs with fellow season ticket holders at Knicks games.

And Chinese New Year is a long way off. 

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21 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

Maybe, but you seem to be taking a pretty extreme view of what returning to normal means.  The notion that an outbreak approaching NY is even possible now is silly.  We're not going back to jammed subways and bro hugs with fellow season ticket holders at Knicks games.

People might not believe in Darwinism, but Darwinism believes in them. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m not sure how this is my fault or what my occupation has to do with it.  I didn’t inherit any money and I don’t live off my parents if that’s what you’re wondering.  I know everyone wants to hear good news and I’m all for optimism.   I do believe things will eventually get better.  I just can’t tell you when. 

First, nobody has said this is your fault, so ditch the insecurity.  Perhaps a better question would have been to ask you your financial situation, because you have consistently come across as somebody who is financially secure for whatever reason.  That is not a jab at you, it's great for you that you are financially secure - the reason why that matters is that you don't seem to grasp the situation that millions and millions of Americans are in.   You are apparently able to work from home and observe all of the protocols that the experts recommend.

And before you say "well, their parents or grandparents will die if we open things back up early", I'm well aware of that.  We all are.  Wife and I do grocery runs for two different households, one for in-laws over the age of 65 that have Ye Olde Preexisting Conditions, and the other for a neighbor who I think is in her 80s.  We've been doing this for almost 2 months (before the shutdowns really got going), and it gets old wiping everything down for them before carefully dropping it off (even if the wiping down is unnecessary, it makes everybody feel better).  Both my parents are around 70 and have some of those preexisting conditions as well.

This thread has 840+ pages, and I was posting on the first page, on January 22.  Shit, I was making jokes on the 23rd that if I was on the medical staff of those hospitals in Wuhan, I'd be getting the fuck out of there, because it was clearly not the typical flu like some were claiming that it was.

I would love it if we could try and keep things locked down like we had been doing prior to May 1st (even if it was not a draconian lock down like China, it was still helping).  As a matter of fact, I posted some stuff from a state official concerning opening things up, and bitched about it in this thread, and so for almost two weeks, Immamac or Blacklab had to individually approve my posts to make sure they weren't political.  So I'm pretty sure I'm in the "pro-lockdown" crowd.

But unfortunately, there's a shitload of people who are in a situation where that is not an option for them, because there are no more stimulus checks on the horizon, and their jobs have either went away, are going away, or at the least are in jeopardy, and so they've got to get out there and find work.

Hell, it's not just the lower classes either - we live in a very pricey neighborhood, a neighborhood we can't even afford to buy in so we rent, and as a result our neighbors and friends are mostly middle-to-upper class economically.  As this has gone on, I'm hearing a lot more of them who are not quite shitting bricks, but they are keeping an extra pair of underwear handy.  People who are making plenty of money and in a position to work from home, are all of the sudden finding out that their business relies on other companies that can't do work-at-home, that can't stay closed and eat the costs.  One of the moms of our son's neighborhood friends is a real estate agent who we're good friends with, and she mentioned that a whole lot more people in the area have been quietly asking her and other real estate agents about estimates for their homes if they have to sell and move elsewhere.  They are not looking to sell just yet, but the current situation, combined with possible problems in the fall are causing a lot of anxiety.  

My wife and I are lucky enough that we can both work from home, and our jobs are not threatened by this (matter of fact, I have some additional work that came in as a result of this).  We don't even have any debt, so we don't have to worry about creditors breathing down our necks if this goes on.  We are going to try and keep our social distancing going, along with the masks and gloves, because the folks we are helping to look out for are elderly and compromised, and they are concerned.    And I happen to think, based on what I'm seeing in person, and from conversations with others, plenty of us are still going to take those precautions for the foreseeable future, while trying to ride that line of letting our kids be kids, and giving them some kind of the social interactions they so desperately need with their peers.

Are there enough of us that have that mindset out there to help make a dent?   Time will tell, but a lot more people than you think are taking this a lot more seriously than you think, and are going to continue doing so.

But don't forget those folks and businesses who are at the end of their rope financially.

 

Edited by atomheartbevo

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58 minutes ago, stork642 said:

He is OK with the destruction just as long as said destruction can be blamed on Covid19.  He doesn’t want to acknowledge the greater destruction caused by the shutdown.  Some people just enjoy watching the world burn.  

it gives me a little tickle.

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13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

People might not believe in Darwinism, but Darwinism believes in them. 

So only so called idiots need to be worried about Covid19.  Clearly you are of such high intelligence you are safe.  I guess you just care that much for everyone else.   

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14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:ut don't forget those folks and businesses who are at the end of their rope financially.

I don’t know what to say.  I support all kinds of policies that would alleviate a lot of pain but I can’t talk about that in this thread without getting banned.  Just gonna have to pull up them bootstraps and hope for the best with thoughts and prayers.  Free market will fix!  I’m drunk AF. 

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1 hour ago, stork642 said:

He is OK with the destruction just as long as said destruction can be blamed on Covid19.  He doesn’t want to acknowledge the greater destruction caused by the shutdown.  Some people just enjoy watching the world burn.  

This is some sanctimonious bullshit. 

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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

There’s more important things than living! 

A lot of people won’t be living if they can’t fucking eat you fuck.  A lot of food pantries and churches won’t be feeding people either when the generous folks can no longer feed their own fucking families, let alone donate $$ or food for others to eat.  Jesus Christ, some of you fucking ingrates can’t seem to see past one line of a pint and understand the actual logic behind it.   
 

you’re the same fuckers that we’re screaming a month ago about “Testing Testing testing!!”   Well, we’re doing far more testing now than we were 3 weeks ago.   And we have about as many and perhaps slightly increased positive results, with more people out and about than 3 weeks ago.  And you know what?   The fucking hospitals are not overrun, the percentage of positive tests has declined, the hospitalization rate and intubation rates/lengths have declined.   
 

but apparently that’s still not good enough. Where will you move the goal posts next?   

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3 hours ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Well our TxDot project in Waco has been shut down. one of our laborers wives tested positive for coronavirus today. We shut down and abandoned the job site and rushed to a clinic in spring Texas for testing. I have been here and I already have the swaps done a few minutes ago.

I did not think it was possible to shut down and clear a major project in that short of a time. the entire project look like a ghost town in a matter of minutes.

The I-35 project?  Jesus 

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2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

The I-35 project?  Jesus 

Hasn't that project been "ongoing" for 20+ years already?  Not like they need an excuse to clear out and take a day off.

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21 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I don’t know what to say.  I support all kinds of policies that would alleviate a lot of pain but I can’t talk about that in this thread without getting banned.  Just gonna have to pull up them bootstraps and hope for the best with thoughts and prayers.  Free market will fix!  I’m drunk AF. 

You should take a deep drink of some whiskey and go ahead and tell us what you really think.  I'll do the same while I wait your response with bated breath.

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50 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

People might not believe in Darwinism, but Darwinism believes in them. 

Good thing your fucking backassward alien state still had Mardi Gras 

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7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

The I-35 project?  Jesus 

Does it really matter? I-35 has been and will be a never ending project for decades.

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1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

No I didn't.  Because, well the bolded part.

it wasn't an opinion article. the funny thing is your ilk would be cumming all over it.

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

it wasn't an opinion article. the funny thing is your ilk would be cumming all over it.

Probably not, because I'm smart, you appear to be stupid and well if you are promoting it...

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8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Hasn't that project been "ongoing" for 20+ years already?  Not like they need an excuse to clear out and take a day off.

They really just got the major work going through Waco last summer.  It’s a shitshow right now 

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Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

Probably not, because I'm smart, you appear to be stupid and well if you are promoting it...

you are 12 right?

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Just now, Trey3216 said:

They really just got the major work going through Waco last summer.  It’s a shitshow right now 

Guess I got it confused with all the other I-401k projects.

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6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

They really just got the major work going through Waco last summer.  It’s a shitshow right now 

Yeah I drove through Waco a few weeks back. Driving next to 18 wheelers with narrow lanes and no shoulders is fun.

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2 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Yeah I drove through Waco a few weeks back. Driving next to 18 wheelers with narrow lanes and no shoulders is fun.

I hit the on-ramp driving from 4th/5th North bound to Dallas today just as a fucking wind farm blade was passing by.  I was already committed so I had to go.  That damn thing almost hit me since he was rolling both lanes.   Couldn’t even see it until I was already up at the end of the on-ramp 

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24 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

A lot of people won’t be living if they can’t fucking eat you fuck.  A lot of food pantries and churches won’t be feeding people either when the generous folks can no longer feed their own fucking families, let alone donate $$ or food for others to eat.  Jesus Christ, some of you fucking ingrates can’t seem to see past one line of a pint and understand the actual logic behind it.   
 

you’re the same fuckers that we’re screaming a month ago about “Testing Testing testing!!”   Well, we’re doing far more testing now than we were 3 weeks ago.   And we have about as many and perhaps slightly increased positive results, with more people out and about than 3 weeks ago.  And you know what?   The fucking hospitals are not overrun, the percentage of positive tests has declined, the hospitalization rate and intubation rates/lengths have declined.   
 

but apparently that’s still not good enough. Where will you move the goal posts next?   

Shit is really really bad.  People want some easy explanation, someone easy to blame, and some magic bullet to fix it.  The thing is, shit was really bad before this but people didn’t give a fuck or care to notice until it affected them and now they’re really upset that not enough people care.  Some of us have been upset for a while and we’ve been mocked and dismissed for being upset.  No one wants this situation but perhaps we should be looking to minimize future damage and working to make sure these things don’t hurt so much when they happen again, because they will happen again if people don’t properly assess how we got here.  

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30 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Hasn't that project been "ongoing" for 20+ years already?  Not like they need an excuse to clear out and take a day off.

Reworking 35 is like painting the Golden Gate Bridge. By the time you get to the other end, it’s time to start again.  

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ACtC-3dE_tQ0SbhKHJc4x5ok6cZtNE2npo70O2Mh

Okay, this is way overdue.

We are at a turning point right now.  We should start to see effects of opening soon.  That wiggle in the

Big chart:  We are in a slow decline. If we were to keep going on this path, we likely could suppress the virus by April 2021.  And we wouldn't even have the herd immunity to prevent another breakout at that point.  Last time I posted I said "I'm in the controlled-spread camp and think we need to open up a bit.  Suppress and contain won't work and can be detrimental to both beating the virus and the economy to even attempt."  That's far more true now.

Lower left chart: Fatality rate is steady.  There's no reason for it to change yet, so it's a good sign for the model.  We have less than one-fifth of a reasonable goal I set for herd immunity (which is the top of the chart).  This will get re-evaluated as we open up.

We are kind of in a blind spot right now as to overall strategy.  We know the extent of how hard we can shutdown.  Over the next few weeks we'll see the results of re-opening.  Where we go from there is an enigma.

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6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Shit is really really bad.  People want some easy explanation, someone easy to blame, and some magic bullet to fix it.  The thing is, shit was really bad before this but people didn’t give a fuck or care to notice until it affected them and now they’re really upset that not enough people care.  Some of us have been upset for a while and we’ve been mocked and dismissed for being upset.  No one wants this situation but perhaps we should be looking to minimize future damage and working to make sure these things don’t hurt so much when they happen again, because they will happen again if people don’t properly assess how we got here.  

I'm still trying to figure out what you are upset about. 

are you upset that this went from a potential of millions dying to 1/20th of that and our hospital system is in good shape?

are you upset that we shutdown for 2 months and 36M people are out of work?

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Posted (edited)

I don't know what he and his ilk are upset about either.  When this virus kills, it is by and large old people (whom they hate unless they are their parents) and the ones with pre-existing conditions (whom they hate unless they are their parents).  You'd think they'd be cheering for the virus.

Edited by Hate

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2 minutes ago, Hate said:

I don't know what he and his ilk are upset about either.  When this virus kills, it is by and large old people (whom they hate unless they are their parents) and the ones with pre-existing conditions (whom they hate unless they are their parents).  You'd think they'd be cheering for the virus.

username checks out

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Posted (edited)

My mom is high risk, she has the lung disease that killed Bernie Mac and she’s pushing 70.  If she gets this virus, she dies.  I imagine there are many folks that have loved ones in similar situations and we really don’t want to say goodbye to them just yet because people need to get their drink on at the Sizzler. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz

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3 minutes ago, Hate said:

I don't know what he and his ilk are upset about either.  When this virus kills, it is by and large old people (whom they hate unless they are their parents) and the ones with pre-existing conditions (whom they hate unless they are their parents).  You'd think they'd be cheering for the virus.

This is a little CR.  I think that there are a few people who are upset that this didn't bring about the "liberal enlightening" that they were hoping for.  

I hate CR.  This virus is not political and I hate the fuckers who try to make it that way.  There is a way forward and if the partisans would (or could) set their views aside, we might find our way through and out of a destroyed economy and a health crisis. I have little hope of that because the 15% on both sides can't seem to do that.  They would rather point and make fun of the other side.

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