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Patrick Bateman

2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don

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2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Yep. Independents hated Hillary, right or wrong, and therefore broke for trump. Biden is the opposite. Independents like him. Its why he was always the best to defeat trump.

The data indicates they hate Biden less than Trump, not that they like Biden.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz

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Democrats talking to Progressives: "Who cares if the policies aren't what you want?!?!? The important thing is to get this administration out of Washington!!!"
Democrats talking to Never Trump Republicans: "Trump is just one man, fuck you!!! Policies are what matter, not just getting one man out of office!!!"

Who said that?

I’m just tired of the over the top praise these guys are getting for, ya know, just doing the right thing for once.

The Lincoln Project folks have never ever acknowledged the role they played for years that got us Trump.

It’s just another bunch of grifters.

After November if Trump is defeated they’ll use all that money from Democrats to promote their brand of Republicanism.

Policy DOES matter. Democrat’s number one priority should be getting Trump out of office. Being held hostage to purity tests from the left doesn’t advance that priority. And being beholden to Never Trumpers doesn’t either.

And let’s be honest, Never Trumpers have no home right now - the Rick Wilson’s of the world can’t make a living in the Republican Party until Trump is done.

I mean, Steve Schmidt gave us Sarah Palin and just last year was Chief Strategist for Howard Fucking Schultz!

I welcome their efforts to help extinguish the inferno they helped create but after the fire is out I have no interest in letting them hang around to help with the rebuild.

This sums it up pretty well.


Rick Wilson Really Bummed All Those Republicans He Helped Elect Are Traitors

Rick Wilson is a GOP political strategist who's enjoying a new career offering his insight to moderate Democrats. They love to retweet him (and Steve Schmidt and Tom Nichols and Max Boot AND Bill Kristol) because it shows they're open to a broad range of dumb opinions. If Democrats elected a president as uniquely awful as Donald Trump and the ones who didn't play ball were cast out of the mad king's court, Republicans would let the poor bastards starve in obscurity. Wilson is lucky Democrats are so forgiving and will snatch up copies of his upcoming book, Running Against the Devil: The Plot to Save America From Trump — and Democrats From Themselves. When NeverTrump Republicans say they want to save Democrats from "themselves," their plan is to turn us into less embarrassing Republicans. It's Extreme Makeover: Jack Kemp Edition.

Wilson has a piece this week in Rolling Stone -- how radical! -- and he laments how Donald Trump has coarsened our political discourse. Why, the president and his supporters call anyone who oppose them "traitors." That ain't no way to govern! In the glorious pre-Trump era, Jimmy Stewarts of all political persuasions went to Washington every day and crossed the aisle without rancor.

WILSON: America once used the words "treason" and "traitors" only in cases of actual betrayal of our nation's most vital secrets or interests.

Be honest: The words “traitor" and “treason" don't have the sting they once had; they've been devalued from mis- and over-use by this president. For Donald Trump, any opposition, either personal, ideological, or political is treason. Anyone who stands in his path betrays the Great Leader. Anyone who fails to take the knee is a traitor.
No, Rick Wilson, Donald Trump didn't build that. "America" maybe was conservative in its rhetoric, but actual conservatives took a more liberal approach to character assassination. Newt Gingrich pioneered the "othering" of Democrats in the early 1990s. He released a memo with a thesaurus-full of inflammatory words to describe liberals: "sick, pathetic, lie, anti-flag, traitors, radical, corrupt." Wilson himself, while working for John McCain's 2008 campaign, created attack ads tying Obama to his former pastor Jeremiah Wright, who he'd already denounced by this point. The ads claimed Wright preached "hate" about America that Obama could "believe in." This was just the start of Republicans calling Obama a Benedict Arnold in blackface.

A headline for a 2013 David Horowitz National Review article was literally "How Obama Betrayed America." When Obama prohibited federal contractors from discriminating against transgender Americans, Maggie Gallagher called the Republicans who supported the move "traitors." Wilson meanwhile is behaving as if he's shocked to discover that the Republican Party is no good.

WILSON: There are elected officials who have made the decision to protect a corrupt president by embracing conspiracy theories, refusing to acknowledge sworn testimony of career foreign-service officials, and piling on to Trump's attack of democratic institutions.
That's a shame, but know-nothing conservatism traces back decades. Trump didn't achieve this himself. He's accomplished nothing on his own. Stephen Colbert lampooned "truthiness," the Bush-era concept that what a conservative felt was true mattered more than what a liberal bothered to prove was true. Fox News and Republicans encouraged Americans for years to reject climate change science, and now the current president thinks the whole thing's a hoax.

WILSON: The traitors talk a good game, hands over their withered hearts, about supporting the Constitution, but they're happy to ignore it when it suits their purposes.

That sounds a lot like the Patriot Act.

WILSON: The traitors believe the executive branch is superior to all others and unaccountable under the law.
This is where the attacks against Trump's critics are consistent with how Republicans treated critics of George W. Bush. If you took issue with Bush's invasion of random countries, you didn't support the troops. A political party whose members rename french fries "freedom fries" out of childish pique long ago proved it was dumb enough for Trump to "hijack."

Wilson has stated that when crafting an attack ad, you go after an opponent's strengths, not their weaknesses. (It's the Karl Rove model and it works!) There's no better or more repulsive example than the smear campaign Wilson directed against former Georgia Senator Max Cleland, who lost an arm and both legs at 25 while serving in Vietnam. Wilson's ads for Republican candidate Saxby Chambliss implied that Cleland's disagreements with Bush over funding for the Department of Homeland Security proved he was pen pals with Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. The ad worked and Cleland was the last Democrat elected to the Senate from Georgia.

Let's not ever forget that Wilson has spent most of his career helping remove from office actual patriots. He most recently produced ads that were instrumental in helping Republicans reclaim the Senate in 2014. The ads didn't call anyone traitors but they helped empower the people who Wilson (correctly) believes have betrayed the "oath they serve and the security of this country." It's fine if Wilson wants to join the angry villagers with the pitchforks and torches, but he should take responsibility for creating the Frankenstein monster in the first place. But he never will. Rick Wilson and other Never Trumpers aren't upset that Republicans suddenly turned bad. They're upset that Republicans have turned on them.


Enjoy their work. Share their videos. But don’t give them money and don’t ever forget what they really are.

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3 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

So...Biden’s speech today was like watching Courso on Game Day the last two years. Seriously....I think he’s had at least one stroke.

donald trump GIF

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The dude can’t deliver a scripted speech to a dozen people in a high school gym without stammering and slurring. Not saying it matters. Nobody gives a shit about either candidate other than hoping the other guy loses.

But the Biden/Lee Corso comparison holds water. No denying that.

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So...Biden’s speech today was like watching Courso on Game Day the last two years. Seriously....I think he’s had at least one stroke.

Oh my god fuck off with this nonsense.

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23 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Policy DOES matter. Democrat’s number one priority should be getting Trump out of office. Being held hostage to purity tests from the left doesn’t advance that priority. 

Some people think the best way to beat Trump is with good ideas, also known as policies that sell.  Give voters a reason to come out other than dethroning Trump.  

Democrats running a negative partisanship campaign against Trump might work because Trump has no ideas himself but wouldn’t it be cool if Biden had a signature idea also to beat Trump’s ass?  It seems like a huge missed opportunity IMO.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz

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The dude can’t deliver a scripted speech to a dozen people in a high school gym without stammering and slurring. Not saying it matters. Nobody gives a shit about either candidate other than hoping the other guy loses.

But the Biden/Lee Corso comparison holds water. No denying that.

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16 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

The dude can’t deliver a scripted speech to a dozen people in a high school gym without stammering and slurring. Not saying it matters. Nobody gives a shit about either candidate other than hoping the other guy loses.

But the Biden/Lee Corso comparison holds water. No denying that.

the daily show wow GIF by The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

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17 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

The dude can’t deliver a scripted speech to a dozen people in a high school gym without stammering and slurring. Not saying it matters. Nobody gives a shit about either candidate other than hoping the other guy loses.

You do realize that Biden has had a problem with stuttering his whole life.

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5 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I agree, Joe, even at his best, isn't Obama or even Bill on the campaign trail, but...... 

When you're running against probably the worst President in modern history, maybe being sleepy is enough.  Trump fatigue is real for independents and the passionate dislike for him on the Dem side is also pretty real and sustained.

Public to Trump:  You're an unhinged lunatic.

Trump:  But Joe is sleepy!

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5 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Joe could die the week before the election and I would still stand in a crowd full of COVID to vote for him.  Anything to get Trump out of there. 

We need to cryogenically freeze Joe and RBG until November.  He doesn't need to do a fucking thing, except stay alive.  

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No one is excited about Biden. But I’m excited he can put together the right cabinet and staff to really do some visionary things IF a blue wave turns the senate and keeps the house. Biden will just listen to experts and chart a path. That’s something to howl for, and hope hasn’t been around in about 3 or so years. 

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5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Jon Stewart is doing this press blitz for his new movie and does a stump speech for Biden.  The theme is Biden's tragic past has given him humility, so he is on board.  It's a reach.

I liked it. 

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9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

No one is excited about Biden. But I’m excited he can put together the right cabinet and staff to really do some visionary things IF a blue wave turns the senate and keeps the house. Biden will just listen to experts and chart a path. That’s something to howl for, and hope hasn’t been around in about 3 or so years. 

This, he isn’t a transformative political figure from a rhetorical or style sense. However, I bet he gets far more legislative victories. That is reason enough to go all in for Joe. Besides, you have to be slightly emotionally unstable to actively dislike Joe.

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1 hour ago, MirrOlure said:

The dude can’t deliver a scripted speech to a dozen people in a high school gym without stammering and slurring. Not saying it matters. Nobody gives a shit about either candidate other than hoping the other guy loses.

But the Biden/Lee Corso comparison holds water. No denying that.

Biden looks great compared to the stroke victim we all saw need two hands to drink water and shuffle down a ramp at West Point a couple of weeks ago.

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I liked Biden in ‘08 more than Obama even though I knew he didn’t have a chance. I’m not pumped 12 years later about him being president but I’ll celebrate like Texas won a NC to have Dotard out of there. 

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36 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

No one is excited about Biden. But I’m excited he can put together the right cabinet and staff to really do some visionary things IF a blue wave turns the senate and keeps the house. Biden will just listen to experts and chart a path. That’s something to howl for, and hope hasn’t been around in about 3 or so years. 

Exactly how I feel, verbatim.

He'll have a competent staff. He will let the experts be experts and won't politicize things that, for the greater good, should not be politicized (IE the CDC). He will listen to people. He will read his fucking daily briefings even if they don't mention his name enough.

Good enough for me.

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The dude can’t deliver a scripted speech to a dozen people in a high school gym without stammering and slurring. Not saying it matters. Nobody gives a shit about either candidate other than hoping the other guy loses.

But the Biden/Lee Corso comparison holds water. No denying that.
To stick with the college football analogy, Trump is president aggy. So the choice becomes very easy.

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11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Exactly how I feel, verbatim.

He'll have a competent staff. He will let the experts be experts and won't politicize things that, for the greater good, should not be politicized (IE the CDC). He will listen to people. He will read his fucking daily briefings even if they don't mention his name enough.

Good enough for me.

If Biden just stays off Twitter and does the job the American people have asked to do that would be a plus. Since day one all Trump has done is try and get reelected because he clearly doesn't know how to do his job. 

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2 hours ago, Bama Chick said:


Who said that?

I’m just tired of the over the top praise these guys are getting for, ya know, just doing the right thing for once.

The Lincoln Project folks have never ever acknowledged the role they played for years that got us Trump.

It’s just another bunch of grifters.

After November if Trump is defeated they’ll use all that money from Democrats to promote their brand of Republicanism.

Policy DOES matter. Democrat’s number one priority should be getting Trump out of office. Being held hostage to purity tests from the left doesn’t advance that priority. And being beholden to Never Trumpers doesn’t either.

And let’s be honest, Never Trumpers have no home right now - the Rick Wilson’s of the world can’t make a living in the Republican Party until Trump is done.

I mean, Steve Schmidt gave us Sarah Palin and just last year was Chief Strategist for Howard Fucking Schultz!

I welcome their efforts to help extinguish the inferno they helped create but after the fire is out I have no interest in letting them hang around to help with the rebuild.

This sums it up pretty well.




Enjoy their work. Share their videos. But don’t give them money and don’t ever forget what they really are.

I'll send them money after they answer this quiz. I've said it was 5 questions, it's a bit more than that. Charles P. Pierce's quiz for Never Trumpers. 

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2018/04/15/id-offer-sanity-quiz-all-nevertrump-conservatives

 

Originally published in Esquire 

1) Many of you have expressed your dismay at how Sinclair Broadcasting forced its local anchors to read a canned statement about the curse of “fake news,” divining, correctly, that this was the company’s way of delegitimizing serious coverage of the many and varied corruptions of the current administration*. In 2004, when Sinclair forced its local stations to run a meretricious fake documentary  slandering John Kerry’s service in Vietnam, were you as offended as you are today? Were you public with your disapproval? Did you take your concerns to upper echelons in the Bush campaign and the Bush White House? To whom did you take them?

2) Please provide an example of how you pushed back against the entire Swift Boating of Kerry? Did any of you upbraid the people who were peddling Purple Heart Band-Aids at the 2004 Republican Convention?

3) Please explain in detail how you, because of your deep concern for political civility and an open marketplace of ideas, pushed back against the vicious attacks by Bush administration officials, and conservative journalists, who were critical of Americans who doubted the phony case for the invasion of Iraq. Please explain Andrew Sullivan’s famous “Fifth Column” essay in light of how Donald Trump talks about his political opponents. Bonus Question: Please discuss the Bush Administration’s assaults on the UN weapons inspectors in the context of the Trump Administration’s assaults on the credibility of the FBI?

4) In one sentence or less, please describe the political style and impact on the nation of the following: Newt Gingrich, Lee Atwater, Karl Rove, Richard Mellon Scaife, the Mercer family, the Koch Family, the Bradley Family. Please include details of the positive contributions of each of these to the political life of the nation.

5) True or False: Ronald Reagan was correct in referring to Michael Dukakis as a “mental patient” from a White House podium.

6) Please explain, in detail, all efforts you made within the Republican Party during election seasons, to counter the influence of radical conservative splinter Protestantism on the party’s policies toward the following: reproductive rights, public schools, the rights of LGBTQ citizens. Bonus Question: Please write in detail the complaints you made when gay marriage bans were specifically targeted.

7) In 1983, Ronald Reagan told Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Shamir that he personally had been part of a film crew at the liberation of the concentration camps in Europe. In 2018, Donald Trump said he wished he’d have been in Parkland, Florida so he could have rushed school shooter Nikolas Cruz. Compare and contrast.

😎 Ronald Reagan once said that, “Trees cause more pollution than humans do.” Donald Trump once tweeted that, during a cold snap, the “East Coast could use a little of that global warming.” Compare and Contrast.

9) Given your concern about ratfcking in political campaigns, please explain all the steps you took to fight the Republican party’s voter-suppression campaign in Florida in 2000.

10) Please explain how close you came to resigning from the party when George W. Bush’s campaign slandered John McCain’s child during the 2000 Republican primary in South Carolina.

11) Please explain in detail how you pushed back against the lies and half-truths lobbed at Al Gore during the 2000 presidential campaign. Please define the salience to the 2000 campaign of the following phrases: Love Canal, Internet, Fairfax Hotel, Love Story.

12) True Or False: Bill Clinton ran drugs out of a small airport in rural Arkansas.

13) True or False: Bill Clinton had two teenagers murdered along a set of railroad tracks in rural Arkansas.

14) True or False: White House counsel Vince Foster’s death was “mysterious.”

And, finally, write a 500-word essay on one of the following topics:

1) Donald Trump’s attempted politicization of the Justice Department is different than Karl Rove’s attempted politicization of the Justice Department.

2) Donald Trump’s corrupt Cabinet is different than Ronald Reagan’s corrupt Cabinet.

3) Michael Cohen is a thug while Karl Rove is a visionary political philosophe.

You have two hours.

Begin.

Edit: Wilson was working for Rubio until he got smashed under the Trump juggernaut 

Edited by cactusflinthead

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37 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Exactly how I feel, verbatim.

He'll have a competent staff. He will let the experts be experts and won't politicize things that, for the greater good, should not be politicized (IE the CDC). He will listen to people. He will read his fucking daily briefings even if they don't mention his name enough.

Good enough for me.

Also.......

the rate of news and craziness should slow way down.

 

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2 hours ago, MirrOlure said:

So...Biden’s speech today was like watching Courso on Game Day the last two years. Seriously....I think he’s had at least one stroke.

Interesting. I didn't watch it but just read that it was gaffe-free and solid. 

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Look, for the progressives, I get it: Joe is a Traditional centrist Democrat.  He’s gotten more progressive over the last year in his rhetoric, but he’s got at least a bit of stale New Democrat smell on him.  
 

But if everyone turns out and votes Democrat from Dogcatcher on up, he’s going to have a pretty progressive DC to work with.  It may not be hard left, but it’s going to be more progressive than we’ve seen in our lifetime. I’m already hearing rumors that GOP lobbyists on K street are being told to freshen their resumes because change is in the air.
 

 

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5 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The democratic base is progressives. The Black voters that got Biden the nomination are not moderate or right leaning dems.  The problem is the Republican Party is so crazy right wing that democrats feel like they have to run candidates already compromised to win elections.  And Bernie’s insurgency campaigns didn’t do a whole lot of favors in the short term for progressives because they now get ostracized by establishment dems as part of that leftist/socialist group when in reality they just want some progress away from our military/police/prison for profit state. 

This paragraph is a result of living in an Elizabeth Warren Twitter echo chamber.

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8 hours ago, Tuco said:

Regarding enthusiasm....
I absolutely care more about removing Trump than I do about elevating Biden. But my level of passion about removing Trump is higher than any enthusiasm I have had for any candidate ever. JFK could have come out of secret cryogenic freeze, with Lincoln as his running mate, and I’d still would care more about removing Trump from office. It’s not a knock on Biden that my main focus is getting rid of Trump. We are in a dangerous situation and that danger needs to end. Biden is the guy to do it. Cool.

OMG this. We have got to get that fat fucking piece of shit out of the Oval Office. And fuck everyone who voted for that immoral, incompetent, corrupt, failed businessman. If you voted for Trump I'm ashamed to share a country with you.

Edited by Bookman

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2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Look, for the progressives, I get it: Joe is a Traditional centrist Democrat.  He’s gotten more progressive over the last year in his rhetoric, but he’s got at least a bit of stale New Democrat smell on him.  
 

But if everyone turns out and votes Democrat from Dogcatcher on up, he’s going to have a pretty progressive DC to work with.  It may not be hard left, but it’s going to be more progressive than we’ve seen in our lifetime. I’m already hearing rumors that GOP lobbyists on K street are being told to freshen their resumes because change is in the air.
 

 

This is pretty on point.

the upcoming election isn’t just about getting rid of trump. It needs to be a resounding rebuke of the Republican Party. For years, those guys enabled trump, ignored his lies, and downplayed his craziness. 
 

For the good of this country, we need to vote out or remove as many republicans from the political world as humanly possible.

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8 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think "a vanilla corporatist Dem" misstates it somewhat.  Joe Biden is, and has always been, a generic Democrat.  And that's a feature, not a bug.  He has consistently put himself in the middle of where the party is, ideologically.  It may be one of his great talents as a politician--sensing where the middle of the Democratic road is and putting himself squarely there.

For that reason, I don't think progressives ought to be too worried about a Biden presidency.  The middle of the Democratic road right now is left of where it was under Obama and faaar left of where it was under Clinton.  And that's where Biden is going to govern from.

And don’t forget the Biden was the one that publicly pushed the Dems left by announcing that he and Obama both supported marriage equality. It wasnt until he did that that you started to see Democratic politicians in large numbers start to agree it was the right move to make. He has the ability to pivot to meet the situation and he’ll hire a staff that will for the most part avoid being drunk at the wheel. He’s going to look like a superhero when he’s compared to his predecessor. 

Edited by NameAlreadyInUse

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8 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This paragraph is a result of living in an Elizabeth Warren Twitter echo chamber.

Perhaps but the only difference I see between a progressive democrat and a non-progressive democrat is the non-progressive is more interested in blocking republicans than advancing any ideas. 

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9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

This is pretty on point.

the upcoming election isn’t just about getting rid of trump. It needs to be a resounding rebuke of the Republican Party. For years, those guys enabled trump, ignored his lies, and downplayed his craziness. 
 

For the good of this country, we need to vote out or remove as many republicans from the political world as humanly possible.

I first voted in the Nixon-McGovern election.  I have voted in every presidential election and almost every off-year election since then.  Never have I voted a straight ticket. I have voted for Republicans for trial and appellate courts, JPs, state House and Senate, Congress, etc.  I have always at least tried to educate myself a little on the candidates running for office.  Not this year, and likely for the foreseeable future.  I will vote for Dems and only Dems, and it barely matters what they actually stand for.  Ever single politician with the designation of "R" is complicit in the Trump Travesty.  They all need to go.  The only possible exception would be if John McCain rose from the dead. 

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44 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

That's a great article that digs into the data and illustrates why Trump is in so much trouble. He needed to expand on his support in the states where he won closely and he's done the opposite. He's done just enough to alienate his "weak support" to the point that they won't vote for him.

 

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Was just flipping through the 538 polling averages (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/) and I guess I hadn't realized the growth of Biden's consistent leads in battleground states.  I put together the following map based on current polling averages, with only states with polling averages >5% in favor of Biden as Lean D and everything from +5 to -1 as toss-ups.  Obviously, the Rs are going to try to cheat like hell in AZ, WI and FL, and a lot can happen over 4 months in this simulation, but this looks astonishingly bad for Trump. My dream is that Biden will win with 400+ EVs, but I'll sure as shit take 270.

 

0mE9R.png 

 

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1 minute ago, Gap03 said:

Was just flipping through the 538 polling averages (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/) and I guess I hadn't realized the growth of Biden's consistent leads in battleground states.  I put together the following map based on current polling averages, with only states with polling averages >5% in favor of Biden as Lean D and everything from +5 to -1 as toss-ups.  Obviously, the Rs are going to try to cheat like hell in AZ, WI and FL, and a lot can happen over 4 months in this simulation, but this looks astonishingly bad for Trump. My dream is that Biden will win with 400+ EVs, but I'll sure as shit take 270.

 

0mE9R.png 

 

it's a wet dream right now. we gotta stay focused for a few more months

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2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

 

This really isn't doing anything to sway my "swing voters are the stupidest fucking people on earth" belief. I love that these people disapprove of his handling of covid but still generally approve of his handling of the economy, like his shitty handling of covid had nothing to do with our economy getting crushed. 

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16 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Was just flipping through the 538 polling averages (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/) and I guess I hadn't realized the growth of Biden's consistent leads in battleground states.  I put together the following map based on current polling averages, with only states with polling averages >5% in favor of Biden as Lean D and everything from +5 to -1 as toss-ups.  Obviously, the Rs are going to try to cheat like hell in AZ, WI and FL, and a lot can happen over 4 months in this simulation, but this looks astonishingly bad for Trump. My dream is that Biden will win with 400+ EVs, but I'll sure as shit take 270.

 

0mE9R.png 

 

I'd recommend just leaving Texas red until more polls come out showing any real shift. It's tighter now because Trump is fucking that goat hard but it's still a very conservative state. 

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4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

This really isn't doing anything to sway my "swing voters are the stupidest fucking people on earth" belief. I love that these people disapprove of his handling of covid but still generally approve of his handling of the economy, like his shitty handling of covid had nothing to do with our economy getting crushed. 

Yeah, but to your point, these same idiots only look at the Dow to determine how the economy is doing.  They could get laid off and pension wiped out, but if the Dow is over 25K, Trump did his job.

Edited by A-Tex Devil

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5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'd recommend just leaving Texas red until more polls come out showing any real shift. It's tighter now because Trump is fucking that goat hard but it's still a very conservative state. 

Texas is conservative in rural areas. It's blue and getting bluer in big cities/counties. The shift is happening as we speak. 

Hillary lost by 9 points to Trump in 2016. Biden should close that gap to 4-5 points at worst, and he's got a fighter's chance at winning the state if these disastrous days don't get better by November. 

 

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I'd recommend just leaving Texas red until more polls come out showing any real shift. It's tighter now because Trump is fucking that goat hard but it's still a very conservative state. 
Based on RCP's list of polls going back to February 2019, there is one poll, in October 2019, with Trump leading outside the MoE; he got 46 percent in that poll. Biden came out on top of four polls pre covid. They've both hit 50 percent one time. There's obviously the most recent FOX News poll showing not just Biden winning slightly, but a huge gap between Trump and Cornyn.

The data you want to wait for has actually been saying Texas is competitive a lot longer than anyone has really been buying that idea. I'm in agreement you that I'll believe Texas flips when I see it, but dismissing the idea that it's in play based on lack of data is pretty clearly not supported.



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8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Texas is conservative in rural areas. It's blue and getting bluer in big cities/counties. The shift is happening as we speak. 

Hillary lost by 9 points to Trump in 2016. Biden should close that gap to 4-5 points at worst, and he's got a fighter's chance at winning the state if these disastrous days don't get better by November. 

 

yeah but how much of that is the state really turning blue and how much of it is Trump? I think it's more the latter. 

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2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I don't like to throw around the term "free money," but uhhhh..... 

i like how predictit does subtle things like on the "trump wins any state he lost" trump looks happy, but on the "trump loses any states he won", trump looks sad.

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Just now, The Dog said:

yeah but how much of that is the state really turning blue and how much of it is Trump? I think it's more the latter. 

big cities around the country are mostly blue and the ones that aren't are trending in that direction.  texas has a lot of big cities.  it's not just trump.

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yeah but how much of that is the state really turning blue and how much of it is Trump? I think it's more the latter. 

In a specific discussion of the EC map, the Tump thing is pretty relavent.

 

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