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1 hour ago, justhookit said:

Dude, you can’t even keep your story straight.

”It was so predictable that red states would be vastly underreporting coronavirus deaths that we talked weeks ago about how to circumvent their corruption and get a real number idea. Merely classifying them as pneumonia deaths is extremely lazy even for republicans. It'll be very easy to see just how bad this is, and if those numbers are correct and representative of the nation we're pushing 200k easily right now. 

 

But now that you see that blue states are equally if not more guilty of “suppressing” the numbers I’m sure you will drop that line of reasoning. In short, you seem to be someone’s sock. Or an idoit. Either way fuck off we are dealing with enough bullshit as it is.

Not sure why you're acting like a cunt but ok. I initially thought it was intentional but after looking at a few other states I figured out it was because of testing suppression. Which technically is intentional just by trump and not necessarily the states. 

I don't know which numbers are bullshit the ones you found or the ones I found so we just have to say fuck it. More people are going to die than will ever be officially counted just by X thousand or Y thousand. It's more deadly than they're letting on. 

Either way I'm done with this especially in light of your inability to keep it civilized. 

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11 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Not sure why you're acting like a cunt but ok. I initially thought it was intentional but after looking at a few other states I figured out it was because of testing suppression. Which technically is intentional just by trump and not necessarily the states. 

I don't know which numbers are bullshit the ones you found or the ones I found so we just have to say fuck it. More people are going to die than will ever be officially counted just by X thousand or Y thousand. It's more deadly than they're letting on. 

Either way I'm done with this especially in light of your inability to keep it civilized. 

I can keep doing this if you like. This one is good too

Hmmm

Ok

You don’t like Texas much

12.1 million deaths?

And this is the post that actually brought you to my attention. You are a lying piece of shit.

 

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17 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

I don't think that political website is sourcing their data correctly. Either that or the CDC has conflicting data in different parts of their website. Which wouldn't be a surprise under Trump.

Their CDC site isn't working on my mobile so I don't know how they're searching the metric but the year data for Florida pneumonia deaths from the CDC list I found was

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

2018 - 3091

2017 - 3057

2016 - 2808

2015 - 2676

2014 - 2719

 

And for 2020

5667 pneumonia and 302 influenza. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

So why is the CDC putting out two different data sets for the same metric? Or did empty wheel source their data incorrectly?

 

 

 

 

16 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Yeah - I don't really understand that either. The data source that justhookit and I have used shows something like 200k P&I deaths per year and other CDC sources show 50-60k. It's almost definitely two different data sources, but I can't explain the differences. You'd have to dig into the technical notes, I think.

 

9 hours ago, justhookit said:

@Dahobbs you any help here? With what @BradInATX is saying above. It bugged me at first too but every other source I found show the low CDC numbers to be way off. I’m way too lazy to look into it any further. I think we can all agree it’s bad data and we are undercounting. At the same time it’s pretty clearly not intentional and stems from poor testing, mostly early on, and it’s  not politically motivated.

I see why y'all are confused (though I'm unclear as to why what should be a neutral discussion of data has created such hostility). Anyway, you have to compare like data sets.

The CDC numbers showing ~50k pneumonia deaths a year (WankerBob's chart) are based on "underlying cause of death," which is statistic that tries to identify "the disease or injury which initiated the train of events leading directly to death, or the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury."  So, a  single underlying cause-of-death is selected from the numerous causes that may be listed on a death certificate through a set of factors (e.g., the sequence of conditions on the certificate, provisions of the ICD, and associated selection rules and modifications). (source)

 The CDC numbers showing ~200k pneumonia deaths a year are from the Fluview system. That system includes every death where pneumonia or influenza are listed anywhere on the death certificate. So, it will naturally be higher than a system that curates the potentially numerous causes down to a single underlying cause. ("The NCHS surveillance data are used to calculate the percent of all deaths occurring in a given week that had pneumonia and/or influenza listed as a cause of death.") (source)

So, the data is not bad or wrong. It is just different. You cannot compare those two sets of data to each other as they are trying to measure different things. You have to be careful and look at the methodology of the statistic you are citing, otherwise you will reach erroneous conclusions. 

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58 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

So, the data is not bad or wrong. It is just different. You cannot compare those two sets of data to each other as they are trying to measure different things. You have to be careful and look at the methodology of the statistic you are citing, otherwise you will reach erroneous conclusions. 

Well yeah, we know that, we were just too lazy to actually look at the methodologies and were hoping someone else would do it for us. 

Both justhookit and I used the dataset from Fluview. So based on what you found, some of that "overage" could actually be deaths that are already counted as Covid (so Covid+Pneumonia). Which would mean the undercounting is less pronounced than he and I came up with; though I doubt it influences it too much. Maybe a few percentage points.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, justhookit said:

I can keep doing this if you like. This one is good too

Hmmm

Ok

You don’t like Texas much

12.1 million deaths?

And this is the post that actually brought you to my attention. You are a lying piece of shit.

 

I'm embarrassed to be an American citizen and a resident of Texas right now. The reasons shouldn't be hard to garner at the moment. 

I didn't lie about anything. We talked to her, and I talked to Chitowndoc. After a week of people in her oncology office complaining they set up testing for them. 2 people in her office tested positive. One became sick during the week leading up to the test. Not sure how many if any cancer patients were infected while they refused to get expedited testing.

Once again, not sure why you want to be a cunt but I guess there's a lot of that going around this country at the moment. 

Edited by Wanker Bob

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3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

 

 

I see why y'all are confused (though I'm unclear as to why what should be a neutral discussion of data has created such hostility). Anyway, you have to compare like data sets.

The CDC numbers showing ~50k pneumonia deaths a year (WankerBob's chart) are based on "underlying cause of death," which is statistic that tries to identify "the disease or injury which initiated the train of events leading directly to death, or the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury."  So, a  single underlying cause-of-death is selected from the numerous causes that may be listed on a death certificate through a set of factors (e.g., the sequence of conditions on the certificate, provisions of the ICD, and associated selection rules and modifications). (source)

 The CDC numbers showing ~200k pneumonia deaths a year are from the Fluview system. That system includes every death where pneumonia or influenza are listed anywhere on the death certificate. So, it will naturally be higher than a system that curates the potentially numerous causes down to a single underlying cause. ("The NCHS surveillance data are used to calculate the percent of all deaths occurring in a given week that had pneumonia and/or influenza listed as a cause of death.") (source)

So, the data is not bad or wrong. It is just different. You cannot compare those two sets of data to each other as they are trying to measure different things. You have to be careful and look at the methodology of the statistic you are citing, otherwise you will reach erroneous conclusions. 

Thank you sir. In that case which data set would you think be best to use for this comparison when the outcome is to find covid deaths potentially classified as pneumonia?

I would think it would be the one that focuses on underlying cause of death but is that most likely to show the deaths marked pneumonia by the ME offices who cannot be tested for covid due to lack of available testing for deceased? 

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3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Well yeah, we know that, we were just too lazy to actually look at the methodologies and were hoping someone else would do it for us. 

Both justhookit and I used the dataset from Fluview. So based on what you found, some of that "overage" could actually be deaths that are already counted as Covid (so Covid+Pneumonia). Which would mean the undercounting is less pronounced than he and I came up with; though I doubt it influences it too much. Maybe a few percentage points.

Correct. 

20 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Thank you sir. In that case which data set would you think be best to use for this comparison when the outcome is to find covid deaths potentially classified as pneumonia?

I would think it would be the one that focuses on underlying cause of death but is that most likely to show the deaths marked pneumonia by the ME offices who cannot be tested for covid due to lack of available testing for deceased? 

I don't think underlying cause of death data is as readily or quickly available. Personally, I think that there may be too many traps to reliably do that exercise solely relying on the publicly available data . That said, perhaps a rough analysis could be made using the fluview data and comparing it to the provisional Covid-19 death data (source). I'm pretty sure the provisional data is reported the same way as fluview, but it isn't entirely clear.  It says it follows ICD guidelines, and its technical notes contain a discussion of underlying cause of death, but it doesn't appear to be reporting just the underlying cause of death. 

I think the excess death statistic is a much better indicator of potential under-counting, at least given the limitations of the public datasets. 

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13 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Annotation-2020-06-03-093758.png

The notion of an uptick in cases being a "bad" thing is what is being inaccurately reported. It really does all matter if those cases end up in hospitalizations. As number of tests increase the absolute number of positives will as well. However if they are all asymptomatic that won't impact the health care system. The entire notion of "Shelter-in-place" is not to keep us from getting CV19 it is to keep us all from getting it at the exact same time and flooding the hospitals. We are all going to get it as no one has immunity built up to the strain. The real challenge is that America is full of fat people (I think I read 10% of US is >40 BMI) which is labeled "Extremely obese". Now I agree that the BMI chart can be off in some cases (mine eg I am 6'3" 208, labeled obese via BMI but I am very fit, workout daily etc) but CV has shown absolutely that if you are overweight it will run through and there are a lot of fatties in the US. Why the news doesn't report hospitalizations is beyond me (especially hospitalizations as a % of total positive cases)

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Is there really an increase in the number of tests being performed in Texas?  The Texas Medical Center data disputes that narrative, at least in the greater Houston area. The 7 day trend of # of tests are significantly down from mid-May (>9,000 down to <6,000) while simultaneously the percent positive is up. 

I assume that testing capacity is higher than number of tests performed. At this point, is anyone turned away from an on-demand test? I don't know if it's free but that's another issue.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/covid-19-testing-trends/

6-Covid-19-testing-trends-6-3-2020.png

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On 5/28/2020 at 1:17 PM, Zepol87 said:

In Dallas it's called the I30 rule. Nothing new 

To be fair, when the only testing sites were government-run, they were in the hood.  Now that private medicine offers antibody testing, it will be offered where there are more clinics and hospitals.

Still a product of the neglect of Souf Dallas, but not intentional, most likely.

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there really an increase in the number of tests being performed in Texas?  The Texas Medical Center data disputes that narrative, at least in the greater Houston area. The 7 day trend of # of tests are significantly down from mid-May (>9,000 down to <6,000) while simultaneously the percent positive is up. 

I assume that testing capacity is higher than number of tests performed. At this point, is anyone turned away from an on-demand test? I don't know if it's free but that's another issue.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/covid-19-testing-trends/

6-Covid-19-testing-trends-6-3-2020.png

In looking at it at the state level test count absolutely jumped up significantly from April to May and appears to be moving downwards in the latter part of May to early June. Hopitalizations as a % of those tested have reduced dramatically as well (from ~15% to ~7% April to May) as testing expanded from "just those who were sick" to people that were curious if they had it etc

image.png.08cf174ee6ffd227b07575a86127c36f.png

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On 6/3/2020 at 1:39 PM, Wanker Bob said:

I'm embarrassed to be an American citizen and a resident of Texas right now. The reasons shouldn't be hard to garner at the moment. 

I didn't lie about anything. We talked to her, and I talked to Chitowndoc. After a week of people in her oncology office complaining they set up testing for them. 2 people in her office tested positive. One became sick during the week leading up to the test. Not sure how many if any cancer patients were infected while they refused to get expedited testing.

Once again, not sure why you want to be a cunt but I guess there's a lot of that going around this country at the moment. 

Sorry man. I don’t agree with your first sentence but I shouldn’t have lashed out at you like I did. My bad. I put myself in basically a 48 hour timeout.

if what you are saying is true, they need to  be called out. I guess I can’t believe that someone in that office wouldn’t squeal. They are setting themselves up for a huge lawsuit. 

Peace ✌️🤘

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On 6/3/2020 at 10:53 AM, BradInATX said:

Well yeah, we know that, we were just too lazy to actually look at the methodologies and were hoping someone else would do it for us. 

Both justhookit and I used the dataset from Fluview. So based on what you found, some of that "overage" could actually be deaths that are already counted as Covid (so Covid+Pneumonia). Which would mean the undercounting is less pronounced than he and I came up with; though I doubt it influences it too much. Maybe a few percentage points.

Yup. Although I’m way way too lazy to do the work. I *think* the undercount is significant. I also don’t believe it was anywhere near the level that would change what Texas is doing. That would take bodies in trees.

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On 6/4/2020 at 10:44 AM, BrazilHorn said:

In looking at it at the state level test count absolutely jumped up significantly from April to May and appears to be moving downwards in the latter part of May to early June. Hopitalizations as a % of those tested have reduced dramatically as well (from ~15% to ~7% April to May) as testing expanded from "just those who were sick" to people that were curious if they had it etc

image.png.08cf174ee6ffd227b07575a86127c36f.png

Where are you pulling the chart for the antibody test from?  And do we have a decent amount of testing in the area at this point to say X% have the antibodies?

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“We’ve seen a pretty steady increase in both admissions and ICU admissions over the past week or so,” said Dr. James McDeavitt, Senior Vice President and Dean of Clinical Affairs for the Baylor College of Medicine. “A day in itself is not alarming. The disturbing thing is it seems to be a little bit more every day. It’s been a very consistent increase.”

 

https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/06/05/med-center-sees-uptick-in-covid-19-patients-in-icus-warns-if-trend-continues-capacity-could-be-exceeded-in-2-weeks/

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Hanging out in Fredericksburg and not a mask to be seen. People are distancing though. To be fair, Gillespie county has 5 reported cases and no deaths. That said, I can’t imagine that most people are staying here for 2 weeks so the numbers may be a bit off. 

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Treatment is at the brink of a "hold the door" moment. Tremendous improvement in medical treatment options, but more is needed to stay ahead of the wave. They are our QEII. Heroes. 

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7 hours ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

“We’ve seen a pretty steady increase in both admissions and ICU admissions over the past week or so,” said Dr. James McDeavitt, Senior Vice President and Dean of Clinical Affairs for the Baylor College of Medicine. “A day in itself is not alarming. The disturbing thing is it seems to be a little bit more every day. It’s been a very consistent increase.”

 

https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/06/05/med-center-sees-uptick-in-covid-19-patients-in-icus-warns-if-trend-continues-capacity-could-be-exceeded-in-2-weeks/

The Med Center has revised their estimates that icu capacity could be exceeded in 5 weeks not 2. they have the ability to drastically increase icu beds in an emergency so perhaps that is the reason for the 2 vs 5 debate. The hospitalization # continues to climb so I doubt it’s due to fewer patients.

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9 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Where are you pulling the chart for the antibody test from?  And do we have a decent amount of testing in the area at this point to say X% have the antibodies?

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

They have a live tool that is updated with various views. Lots of good visuals. Only 113k antibody tests have been administered and as folks like ChiTownDoc have mentioned who knows how accurate those tests have been.

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On 6/1/2020 at 7:03 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t see how continued reopening won’t lead to more cases which a corresponding increase in hospitalization unless the summer heat/humidity theories are correct. It’s not like reopening can be as safe as everyone staying home, and continued reopening will lead to complacency.

 

I’ve posted in other threads that SA hospitalization numbers have been pretty stable. Looks like statewide they might be slowly creeping up. I think we should expect it to continue. Around here the percentage of people wearing masks has plummeted over the last week or so. 

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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

They have a live tool that is updated with various views. Lots of good visuals. Only 113k antibody tests have been administered and as folks like ChiTownDoc have mentioned who knows how accurate those tests have been.

What I’ve read about most of the tests is that they are not reliable for making decisions on an individual basis, but they are more than accurate enough to do large studies of the population with. Thanks for the link

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8 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

What I’ve read about most of the tests is that they are not reliable for making decisions on an individual basis, but they are more than accurate enough to do large studies of the population with. Thanks for the link

This is how I see it. Say that you test positive for the antibodies, presumably meaning that you had COVID and are most likely immune at this point. You should still wear a mask in public. Perhaps it may be impossible for you to infect others or vice versa, but others don't know that. You're not wearing a shirt that say you had COVID-19.  And as more people stop wearing masks, sheeple will follow along and toss their mask aside.

And yes, wearing a mask in public is partially for show as in showing respect for others.

 

 

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11 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

And do we have a decent amount of testing in the area at this point to say X% have the antibodies?

Texas's antibody tests so far have shown about 4% positive.  That number has been flat over the past few weeks.  Keep in mind that the population is somewhat self-selected.  You have to have the desire and time to get a test, the knowledge of where to get it, and maybe the money to pay for the test.  Or maybe you were having another medical procedure so you were tested.  Only about 1 in 260 people in Texas have had an antibody test and maybe 2-3 thousand people per day are getting antibody tests in Texas.  Also some are saying the test may not be accurate.

So, the current answer is 4%. In my non-scientific opinion, there has not been enough random testing with a proven test in a large enough population to draw conclusions.

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I was at HEB today and there has been a significant increase in non-masked shoppers. Stopped by Twin Liquors and I was the oddball in a mask but I noticed liquor stores were always full of people without masks during this pandemic.

 

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Visiting family in SA/Austin this weekend. In Austin now, went to the south central market today and it was a breath of fresh air seeing the number of masks compared to Fort Worth. God I can’t wait to move back next month. 

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Next week should be interesting, across Texas and the major cities across the country. 

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From the site I view for aggregated covid 19 data, today was one of the worst days in Texas for new cases, just shy of 2000.  Houston survived the initial covid cases relatively unscathed but I worry that it could get bad here soon based on recent trends.

i know that it’s unlikely the govt will again shut down businesses but if cases and deaths grow, an informal shutdown will occur when people vote with their feet. A restaurant can open at 50, 75 or 100% but it doesn’t matter if no one shows up.

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S. Austin Costco today. 100% masks. They’re probably still requiring it but everyone was complying. 

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Seems I read somewhere it’s mutating; the infection risk is staying stable but lethalness isn’t decreasing.
correct?
So what's changing?

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3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

S. Austin Costco today. 100% masks. They’re probably still requiring it but everyone was complying. 

costco requires masks. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

S. Austin Costco today. 100% masks. They’re probably still requiring it but everyone was complying. 

I saw my local Costco kick a mother and two children from the store because they weren't wearing masks.  Not sure how they even got in the door as there are alway several employees there screening customers.

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On 6/6/2020 at 12:08 AM, Biff Tannen said:

Hanging out in Fredericksburg and not a mask to be seen. People are distancing though. To be fair, Gillespie county has 5 reported cases and no deaths. That said, I can’t imagine that most people are staying here for 2 weeks so the numbers may be a bit off. 

Mask usage / distancing is getting worse in Bell county/Killeen.  Even some of the places that are mandatory masks are just mailing it in.  People have masks on their heads, but they are pulled down below their noses or even their chins.  A lot of the employees are doing it, so customers are following suit.  There's a very real sense here that shit is over. 

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Shoal Creek Lowe’s yesterday had quite a few without masks. Maybe 10-15% which is high for the location. Kids running around unsupervised with no masks. A fat worker pushing a pallet jack with his mask pulled down so he doesn’t die. Several with masks but down around their necks. Give it 2 months and I’d guess maybe 10% will have masks.

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Mask usage was down the other day when  I had to go into the grocery store. Was probably 70% previous time (month ago) and this time closer to 30%. This is in Collin county.

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22 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Seems I read somewhere it’s mutating; the infection risk is staying stable but lethalness isn’t decreasing.

correct?

tumblr_nhgm31l5z91ttw2neo1_250.gifv

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REI in Dallas was about 95% mask usage when I was there doing returns. The 3 I saw who didn't have them on where two bro douches and oddly, an old hippy looking guy. 

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Our grocery store was a 50-50 mix of employees (mostly wearing them albeit some were not covering their noses) and customers. Young people--very few. Middle aged--mostly women. Seniors--all women. Had to get past an elderly fellow, maybe 70's and he's got no mask and his cart is sideways in the aisle. I had just turned the corner so I start to back up, thinking 'never mind I'll go around.' Why I didn't do that I don't know. He sees me and turns and pulls his cart to the side and lets out the biggest sneeze (not fake either) while his hands are on the cart. Thanks man, and god bless. I love being sneezed on when I'm wearing a mask to protect YOU.

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3 hours ago, Covri said:

Mask usage was down the other day when  I had to go into the grocery store. Was probably 70% previous time (month ago) and this time closer to 30%. This is in Collin county.

This is me to be honest, I'm increasingly forgetting/being lazy. When getting a haircut or doing something where I have to interact with someone I will wear, but just running into the QuikTrip while pumping gas or something I haven't been as vigilant.

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Not sure what phase of the reopening plan this belongs to, but saw this sign out driving today. 

E9-BAEEC0-5-A45-40-D9-9-BDE-80752-DFD9-B


 

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3 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Not sure what phase of the reopening plan this belongs to, but saw this sign out driving today. 

E9-BAEEC0-5-A45-40-D9-9-BDE-80752-DFD9-B


 

Somewhere between 25% and 50%.

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Heard that TEA’s guideline they are giving school districts is that their county needs a 30 day downward new case trend to open with low risk kids and a 50 day downward trend to allow all kids back to school.

Dunno how close that 30th/50th day can be to the first day of class before they have to make the call to start with remote teaching.

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The governor doesn't follow his own guidelines so I don't know how they're gonna enforce that.

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As much as I hate to adimit ever being in fucking Dallas, I am here now for work in uptown and apparently, the whole coronavirus news didn’t make it here. I’m probably already dead and don’t know it yet. 

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14 minutes ago, sidis said:

As much as I hate to adimit ever being in fucking Dallas, I am here now for work in uptown and apparently, the whole coronavirus news didn’t make it here. I’m probably already dead and don’t know it yet. 

It’s alright. We seem to have forgotten all about it in Austin too. 
 

98458343-11-F3-494-B-92-DB-18-EADC095-C8

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6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It’s alright. We seem to have forgotten all about it in Austin too. 
 

98458343-11-F3-494-B-92-DB-18-EADC095-C8

It’s ok. That gathering was approved by the Approval and Justification Committee. 

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mpu


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