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2018 - Elections and Trends


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6 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Was listening to a podcast about relatively low Latino turnout nationwide and the reasons for it, and it cemented some thinking I've had in recent days about gerrymandering, and how it could cost Beto a win here.

1. All politics is local.

2. Imagine you live in the Valley. Or the Hood.

3. The only politicians who ever cross your mind are the president and your local rep.

4. That rep is either Sheila Jackson Lee or one of the Valley incumbents who are elected for life.

5. Why bother showing up to vote for them? Or anyone up-ballot? 

that would make sense as some of the reasons why hispanic turnout is low in general

if it's low this year as opposed to other years, it makes you wonder if state sponsored terrorism is effective at causing targeted groups to limit their interactions with the government

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John James was training to bring terrorists to justice by bombing Iraqis during our illegal invasion of that country?  The illegal invasion that killed hundreds of thousands of civilians?  Says a lot about this country that that is something worth bragging about, and no one will call you on it.  

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12 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

John James was training to bring terrorists to justice by bombing Iraqis during our illegal invasion of that country?  The illegal invasion that killed hundreds of thousands of civilians?  Says a lot about this country that that is something worth bragging about, and no one will call you on it.  

They like him because he’s a black Republican (look we’re nor racist!). He’s not a black female Republican so he’s not all over Fox News like Cubic Zirconia and Polyester. 

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20 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

I think Mike Pence has hurt feelings.
 

Mike Pence : "This ain’t Hollywood. This is Georgia!"

oops.

"According to the Motion Picture Association of America the motion picture and television industry is responsible for more than 92,100 jobs and nearly $4.6 billion in total wages in Georgia, including indirect jobs and wages. Since 2010, more than 300 new businesses have relocated or expanded in Georgia to support the industry."

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Good article on how no one knows wtf is happening with respect to the vote:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/sorry-pundits-but-you-have-no-clue-what-will-happen-on-tuesday

the final week before Election Day last November in Virginia, where the commonwealth was electing a new governor, the polls were tightening. Republican Ed Gillespie, was, like Donald Trump before him, tapping into immigration fears by running campaign ads about the threat of the violent MS-13 gang and sanctuary cities. Polls showed Gillespie was suddenly within 3 points of the Democratic front-runner, Ralph Northam, who had held a sturdier lead for much of the year. Were Democrats about to blow another big race in a battleground state? Were last minute Republican efforts to exploit racial fears actually working? Could Northam lose even with an unpopular president in the White House? That scenario would defy the logic of every previous off-year election in modern times, but never mind. The punditry machine, huffing Twitter fumes, gassed itself up. The day before the election, three out of four panelists on MSNBC’s Morning Joe solemnly predicted a Northam loss.

The fourth, Harold Ford Jr., predicted a toss-up, but not without pre-writing an obituary. “Democrats are going to look back and wonder, if he does not win, did we lose on the crime issue, did we lose on the public-safety issue?,” Ford offered. Meanwhile, Mika Brzezinski wondered whether the governor’s race in a state populated by 8.5 million people might hinge on “the Donna Brazile stuff,” a niche beltway Twitter scandal so forgettable that I had to Google it to recall what it was about, despite the fact that I cover politics for a living and grew up in central Virginia. Turns out Brazile wrote a book trashing Hillary Clinton’scampaign, which surely weighed heavily on the minds of voters in Roanoke.

Not only did Northam win the Virginia race, he won by 9 points, a polling error more substantial than anything we saw in 2016. Gillespie, it turns out, actually won more votes than any previous statewide Republican candidate; he had enthusiasm at his back. It’s just that Democrats had more—and they blew the doors off on Election Day. The whole spectacle was yet another blow to polling and to punditry, two industries sullied by Trump’s victory in 2016

continued at the link.

The fourth, Harold Ford Jr., predicted a toss-up, but not without pre-writing an obituary. “Democrats are going to look back and wonder, if he does not win, did we lose on the crime issue, did we lose on the public-safety issue?,” Ford offered. Meanwhile, Mika Brzezinski wondered whether the governor’s race in a state populated by 8.5 million people might hinge on “the Donna Brazile stuff,” a niche beltway Twitter scandal so forgettable that I had to Google it to recall what it was about, despite the fact that I cover politics for a living and grew up in central Virginia. Turns out Brazile wrote a book trashing Hillary Clinton’scampaign, which surely weighed heavily on the minds of voters in Roanoke.Not only did Northam win the Virginia race, he won by 9 points, a polling error more substantial than anything we saw in 2016. Gillespie, it turns out, actually won more votes than any previous statewide Republican candidate; he had enthusiasm at his back. It’s just that Democrats had more—and they blew the doors off on Election Day. The whole spectacle was yet another blow to polling and to punditry, two industries sullied by Trump’s victory in 2016.[/quote]

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1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Good article on how no one knows wtf is happening with respect to the vote:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/sorry-pundits-but-you-have-no-clue-what-will-happen-on-tuesday

That Virginia election is a microcosm of what I’m expecting for this midterm election.  People will accuse me of wishful thinking for this but I feel like I’ve had my finger on the pulse on the media, Trump, and their influence as much as anyone during the Trump administration.  

That Virginia election was a complete unforeseen bloodbath for the GOP all the way down the ballot.

I noticed the Dem in my Congressional district has a 1 in 100 chance of winning but there’s been virtually no polling in that race available to the public.  While I don’t think the Democrat in my district has any shot (he’s not a great candidate), I believe there are other districts with similar “GOP safe” expectations that are going to flip because there are dynamics in this election that are just too hard to accurately measure.  Things like energy and activism among first time voters and people new to the political process.

This election and the participation in democracy Trump has inspired might be the best thing to come out of this administration.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That Virginia election is a microcosm of what I’m expecting for this midterm election.  People will accuse me of wishful thinking for this but I feel like I’ve had my finger on the pulse on the media, Trump, and their influence as much as anyone during the Trump administration.  

That Virginia election was a complete unforeseen bloodbath for the GOP all the way down the ballot.

I noticed the the Dem in my Congressional district has a 1 in 100 chance of winning but there’s been virtually no polling in that race available to the public.  While I don’t think the Democrat in my district has any shot (he’s not a great candidate), I believe there are other districts with similar “GOP safe” expectations that are going to flip because there are dynamics in this election that are just too hard to accurately measure.  Things like energy and activism among first time voters and people new to the political process.

This election and the participation in democracy Trump has inspired might be the best thing to come out of this administration.

The thing is, it wasn't unforeseen by us in Virginia. The biggest take away was how fucking awful cable punditry is.

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That Virginia election is a microcosm of what I’m expecting for this midterm election.  People will accuse me of wishful thinking for this but I feel like I’ve had my finger on the pulse on the media, Trump, and their influence as much as anyone during the Trump administration.  

That Virginia election was a complete unforeseen bloodbath for the GOP all the way down the ballot.

I noticed the the Dem in my Congressional district has a 1 in 100 chance of winning but there’s been virtually no polling in that race available to the public.  While I don’t think the Democrat in my district has any shot (he’s not a great candidate), I believe there are other districts with similar “GOP safe” expectations that are going to flip because there are dynamics in this election that are just too hard to accurately measure.  Things like energy and activism among first time voters and people new to the political process.

This election and the participation in democracy Trump has inspired might be the best thing to come out of this administration.

One assumption I think in Texas that might be off is that the youth vote will be so clearly Democratic.  I think back to the Plano twenty-somethings I remember knowing and they were a lot more party hack-y and wanted to follow their parents footsteps than the crazy socialist they are painted as now.  That was two decades ago though, so maybe its different with today's yoots.

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Yeah, Virginia is a great predictor.  True statewide, scheduled election.  Not a one off special.  Repubs lost bigly in the upscale white burbs, which were historically GOP leaning.  That's basically what the polling is telling us now.

A total bloodbath Tuesday night wouldn't surprise me.

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2 minutes ago, G650 said:

The thing is, it wasn't unforeseen by us in Virginia. The biggest take away was how fucking awful cable punditry is.

Yet again why I think this election is going to be a shocker. Cable news and the Nate Silvers can push out all the projection numbers they want but unless they are on the ground in specific areas, they have no idea what is going on and neither do I for that matter.

But I’ve seen the way people responsed to this administration already whether it be the women’s march, march for our lives, or the keep families together nationwide protest.

People are fucking pissed, especially the women.

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12 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yet again why I think this election is going to be a shocker. Cable news and the Nate Silvers can push out all the projection numbers they want but unless they are on the ground in specific areas, they have no idea what is going on and neither do I for that matter.

But I’ve seen the way people responsed to this administration already whether it be the women’s march, march for our lives, or the keep families together nationwide protest.

People are fucking pissed, especially the women.

Facebook tells a different story.  I’m not convinced the anger has created a shift from right to left, so much as further polarization.  Both sides (Hi, Anastasis!) are angry and motivated.  Maybe that benefits Dems slightly more in this election based on margin over typical turnout. But I’m not expecting a bloodbath.  Hope I’m wrong.

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2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, Virginia is a great predictor.  True statewide, scheduled election.  Not a one off special.  Repubs lost bigly in the upscale white burbs, which were historically GOP leaning.  That's basically what the polling is telling us now.

A total bloodbath Tuesday night wouldn't surprise me.

It will be interesting to see what happens.  I live in Virginia now and about once a month I drive to deep SW rural portion of the state for some charitable work I do at a rural hospital.  During the 2016 election there was nothing but Trump signs and one big farm that had a huge “Hillary for Prison” sign.  This year that same farm has a big sign for the Dem congressman and the mix of R and D congress signs is noticeable.  I almost drove off the highway when I first saw it cause it was so unexpected.

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2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, Virginia is a great predictor.  True statewide, scheduled election.  Not a one off special.  Repubs lost bigly in the upscale white burbs, which were historically GOP leaning.  That's basically what the polling is telling us now.

A total bloodbath Tuesday night wouldn't surprise me.

This is correct.  Also, VA closed at 7.  If you see Dave Brat and Scott Taylor in trouble by half past 8, it’s probably a big night for the Dems

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Really interesting WSJ article that I think gives good insight why there are so many endangered seats right now beyond a mere surge:  when there are gerrymanders, they assume particular behavior of the underlying population.  With Trump's appeal to uneducated people and the rapid movement away from R by people with degrees, it caused a reorganization of the voting base in a way that wasn't intended when they drew up the current gerrymander in 2010.

 

There is a non-embeddable graph in here showing that in 2006, about 50% of endangered R House seats were in districts with a greater-than-average number of educated people and 50% were in districts with less-than-average.  Now, that number is almost 75%-25%.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-yawning-divide-that-explains-american-politics-1540910719?mod=e2fb

 

Trump's strategy works at a national level because he doesn't care about individual district breakdowns.  He knows there are more uneducated people than educated overall, so he goes for the former.  But because people tend to cluster, smaller districts don't really work like states. 

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And not talked about within the “Women are pissed” narrative are black women.

Polling in the Alabama special election pretty much showed Moore with a lead but black women quietly turned out in big numbers.

While I think women in general gave Jones the victory, I don’t think he would have won without black women.

Maybe they’re a hard demographic to poll. But if they show up nationally like they did in Alabama - watch out.

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4 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

And not talked about within the “Women are pissed” narrative are black women.

Polling in the Alabama special election pretty much showed Moore with a lead but black women quietly turned out in big numbers.

While I think women in general gave Jones the victory, I don’t think he would have won without black women.

Maybe they’re a hard demographic to poll. But if they show up nationally like they did in Alabama - watch out.

I very much want this to be the case.

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3 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

And not talked about within the “Women are pissed” narrative are black women.

Polling in the Alabama special election pretty much showed Moore with a lead but black women quietly turned out in big numbers.

While I think women in general gave Jones the victory, I don’t think he would have won without black women.

Maybe they’re a hard demographic to poll. But if they show up nationally like they did in Alabama - watch out.

I remember reading the black turnout in that race equalled the turnout in the Obama elections, which is astounding considering it was a special election.  I'm assuming that was mostly women.

Then again, the Republicans nominated a child molester.

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27 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Really interesting WSJ article that I think gives good insight why there are so many endangered seats right now beyond a mere surge:  when there are gerrymanders, they assume particular behavior of the underlying population.  With Trump's appeal to uneducated people and the rapid movement away from R by people with degrees, it caused a reorganization of the voting base in a way that wasn't intended when they drew up the current gerrymander in 2010.

 

There is a non-embeddable graph in here showing that in 2006, about 50% of endangered R House seats were in districts with a greater-than-average number of educated people and 50% were in districts with less-than-average.  Now, that number is almost 75%-25%.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-yawning-divide-that-explains-american-politics-1540910719?mod=e2fb

 

Trump's strategy works at a national level because he doesn't care about individual district breakdowns.  He knows there are more uneducated people than educated overall, so he goes for the former.  But because people tend to cluster, smaller districts don't really work like states. 

What makes a lot these districts Republican is there are more suburban and exurban whites than there are minorities and other Democratic groups they pack in there.  (It's why Austin doesn't have one Democratic congressmen and PA had a disproportionate number of R's vs the total vote.)

The upscale suburban whites are the cornerstone of the whole thing.  Start to peel them off and everything crumbles.  The very way they gerrymandered the districts is going to sink them.

 

Youvekilledusall.gif

 

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

What makes a lot these districts Republican is there are more suburban and exurban whites than there are minorities and other Democratic groups they pack in there.  (It's why Austin doesn't have one Democratic congressmen and PA had a disproportionate number of R's vs the total vote.)

The upscale suburban whites are the cornerstone of the whole thing.  Start to peel them off and everything crumbles.  The very way they gerrymandered the districts is going to sink them.

 

Youvekilledusall.gif

 

i read or heard a theory (hell, it may have been on here) that rising city housing costs are driving a lot of democratic voters into these gerrymandered republican districts. more people are moving to the suburbs and it's sort of got the potential to break the gerrymandered model. 10 years is a long time for demographic shift, and if you look in the dallas, houston, and and austin areas, i would posit that rising property values have moved s lot of younger people out to the burbs. i'm not saying wilco will go blue, but i'd wager there are more blueish voters out there in round rock than were there in 2008-2010, giving candidates like  mj hegar more of a viable chance.

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1 minute ago, hayden_horn said:

i read or heard a theory (hell, it may have been on here) that rising city housing costs are driving a lot of democratic voters into these gerrymandered republican districts. more people are moving to the suburbs and it's sort of got the potential to break the gerrymandered model. 10 years is a long time for demographic shift, and if you look in the dallas, houston, and and austin areas, i would posit that rising property values have moved s lot of younger people out to the burbs. i'm not saying wilco will go blue, but i'd wager there are more blueish voters out there in round rock than were there in 2008-2010, giving candidates like  mj hegar more of a viable chance.

Interesting.

 

Counterpoint -- I heard on NPR some study where the conclusion was "people don't make cities blue, cities make people blue."  So it seems to reason that if you take people that would be blue in the urban area and put them in a suburban area, the conclusion would be that they are going to vote red.

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1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Counterpoint -- I heard on NPR some study where the conclusion was "people don't make cities blue, cities make people blue."  

The same phenomenon works the other way in rural areas.  People tend to run with the herd as opposed to against it wherever they live. 

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22 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The same phenomenon works the other way in rural areas.  People tend to run with the herd as opposed to against it wherever they live. 

More spread out population makes a laissez faire policy work better. Crowded urban warrens often require more control because the actions of one impinge on others more severely.  In Japan they deal with this via socio-cultural controls.  In the US we tend more towards politico-legal controls.

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10 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

New poll in CA 49 has Levin over Harkey 51-44.

When counting early voters that already voted, Levin by 13.

That ones going blue for sure. 

 

The big big question is what about rorhabacher, Walters, Knight, and Denham?

 

how many of those bastards lose?

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Shit. Sorry, forget to link to the actual poll

 

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a8279c12-7c0a-43a2-a506-5dc7ec3044c9&c=37

here's a summary:

96 hours until votes are counted in California's 49th US Congressional District, Democrats are well positioned to flip the US House seat being vacated by Republican Darrell Issa, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune newspaper. 

At this hour, it's Democrat Mike Levin 51%, Republican Diane Harkey 44%. Among respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Levin leads by 13 points. 

Levin is above 50% among men, younger voters, whites, independents, moderates, voters with a high-school education, voters with a 4-year college degree, lower-income voters, affluent voters and suburban voters. 

Voters say that the Presidency is the most important issue as they vote in 2018. Among voters focused on the Presidency, Levin leads by 76 points. Among voters who say that immigration is the most important issue in 2018, Harkey leads by 90 points. Among voters who say that taxes are most important, Harkey leads by 60 points. Among voters who say that the economy is most important, Harkey leads by 57 points. And among voters who say that health care is most important, Levin leads by 82 points. 

* Of those voting for Levin, 71% do so enthusiastically, 25% do so with reservations. 
* Of those voting for Harkey, 67% do so enthusiastically, 25% do so with reservations. 

* Levin's favorability rating is Plus 1: 37% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Levin compared to 36% who have an unfavorable opinion. 
* Harkey's favorability rating is Minus 10: 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of Harkey, compared to 39% who have an unfavorable opinion. 

President Donald Trump has a Minus 8 Net Job Approval in the 49th district: 43% of voters approve of the job that Trump is doing as President, 51% disapprove. 

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 745 adults from California's 49th US Congressional District 10/29/18 through 11/01/18. Of the adults, 651 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 500 who have already returned a ballot or who promise to do so before the 11/06/18 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (65% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device. CA-49 extends along the Pacific Ocean from Dana Point on the North to La Jolla on the South, including Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, Carlsbad, Cardiff by the Sea and Del Mar. Issa won the district in 2016 by less than 1 percentage point.
 
Edited by Gil Bang
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16 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

That ones going blue for sure. 

 

The big big question is what about rorhabacher, Walters, Knight, and Denham?

 

how many of those bastards lose?

The real fucking POS in the CA delegation is Duncan Hunter.  From 3 days ago:

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Rep. Duncan Hunter’s lead over Democratic challenger Ammar Campa-Najjar in the 50th Congressional District race has shrunk to just three percentage points, according to a new poll released one week before Election Day.

Hunter’s lead over Campa-Najjar has dwindled in the weeks since the congressman and his wife Margaret were indicted on suspicion of misusing campaign funds to pay for extravagant vacations and other personal expenses.

In the latest 10News/San Diego Union-Tribune poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, 48 percent of likely voters in the 50th District said they would vote to reelect the Republican Hunter, but 45 percent said they would put their support behind Campa-Najjar. Eight percent said they are undecided.

On Aug. 27, a 10News/U-T poll showed Hunter with a seemingly comfortable 47 percent to 39 percent lead over Campa-Najjar. That poll was released shortly after Hunter’s federal indictment.

VIEW LATEST POLL | VIEW AUG. 2018 POLL

In that August poll, 42 percent of voters surveyed felt the charges against Hunter were politically motivated.

Fast-forward to the Oct. 30 poll, and 53 percent voters said they believe -- based on what they know so far -- that Hunter broke the law. Additionally, 57 percent of voters said that Hunter's claim that his wife was responsible for all wrongdoing “is unbelievable.“

According to the latest poll, 45 percent of voters surveyed said they disapprove of the job Hunter is doing as their congressman.

SurveyUSA added, “Of those who voted for Hunter in 2016, before he and his wife Margaret were charged with spending $250,000 of campaign funds to pay for personal expenses, 81% stick with Hunter in 2018.”

Since the August poll, each campaign has released ads attacking the other candidate. Campa-Najjar’s ad slammed Hunter for his alleged misuse of campaign funds. Hunter’s ad raised eyebrows for accusing Campa-Najjar of “being funded by the Muslim Brotherhood,” among other claims.

Campa-Najjar denounced the ad as racist and un-American.

Hunter’s attacks on Campa-Najjar weren’t just limited to TV ads. In a speech during a Ramona event in late September, Hunter suggested his Democratic opponent is an “Islamist” that is part of an effort to infiltrate the U.S. government. The Republican also accused Campa-Najjar of changing his name “to sound Hispanic.”

Hunter’s father, former congressman Duncan Hunter Sr., got involved and called Campa-Najjar a national security threat during a press briefing that the Democratic challenger was present for.

Hunter Sr. said his son’s campaign ads attacking Campa-Najjar’s family history had nothing to do with race and everything to do with terrorism.

Edited by Gil Bang
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SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — More than 19.6 million Californians are registered to vote in the midterms, the largest number in California history, Secretary of State Alex Padilla announced Friday.

"It is nearly unprecedented for California to set a voter registration record in a midterm election," Padilla said.

Nearly four in five eligible Californians is registered to vote, the largest share of the eligible population heading into a gubernatorial election in almost 70 years, according to Padilla's office.

The numbers come as voters appear highly energized for the election that will determine what party controls Congress.

The tally is likely buoyed by California's new automatic voter registration program, known "motor voter" because it registers eligible people who visit the Department of Motor Vehicles unless they opt out.

It took effect in April, with more than 3 million people registering or updating their registration through the program at the start of last month, according to the DMV.

Over 1.8 million more California residents are registered to vote heading into Election Day than were registered ahead of the 2014 midterm.

Democrats and no-party-preference make up a larger part of the electorate both in numbers and as a percentage. Republicans are a smaller share, numerically and as a percentage, making up less than a quarter of registered voters.

California's voter registration deadline passed Oct. 22, but residents can still register to vote conditionally in the November election at county elections offices and some other locations.

More than 3 million people have already voted ahead of Election Day, according to the nonpartisan firm Political Data Inc.

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btw they’re mad the polling places will stay open to get everyone who is line at 7 a chance to vote. No one new can get in line after 7. 

GOP would prefer they close the doors and shut off the lights at 7, fuck people waiting 

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For all of the talk about suburban women coming out against the GOP, this has to be something to energize them. Two women running for Governor and Lieutenant Governor in Georgia and two women running in flippable but very heavily gerrymandered districts in suburban Atlanta.

 

 

Edited by GSU&UT
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