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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

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16 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

but there was clear uptick due to Memorial Day BBQ's right?

Don’t forget all the deaths from those rubes that went to the beaches in April in Flordia and early May in Texas. Remember how stupid those people were?

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19 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Who is arguing with you on these points? I agree, outdoor transmission is definitely possible. I’m responding to the claim that the spike in Texas is “is clearly linked to the protests”, which is not based in fact.

Well, it is clear that transmission is more likely in crowded environments. And it is likely that people who don't wear masks in crowded environments are likely to spread the disease by habitually not wearing masks and taking appropriate precautions. And there is no doubt that such people are likely to transmit the disease to the community at large. So by extension, people who go into crowded places without taking proper precautions are assholes and are responsible for continuing the spread of the virus.

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10 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Don’t forget all the deaths from those rubes that went to the beaches in April in Flordia and early May in Texas. Remember how stupid those people were?

You know what else was going on in April and early May? Social distancing. Bars closed. Restaurants doing takeout only. Businesses closed.

the beaches have never been a problem. One of these days y’all are going to pull your head out of the sand and realize the new cases climbing is due to re-opening those indoor places and our absolute refusal to wear masks. We had to shut down 3 bars here in Port A yesterday. more are coming.

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22 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

the wsj article is great news.  we need to go ahead with football, baseball, and  outdoor musical festivals asap.

Yeah... disagree. Protests are about a show of solidarity in the vicinity of others while sports events for the audience involve communal celebration but don’t necessitate it. You can protest with a little bit of distance, mask on, and sober while being “safe”.  

but an audience at a major sporting event would mean drinking, possible frequent removal of masks or having them off, and limited distancing. And any drinking will lead to bad behaviors very easily. 

would be for having sports with no audience if we can figure out how to keep the players and their families CoVID free and socially healthy. 

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1 minute ago, achooloco said:

Yeah... disagree. Protests are about a show of solidarity in the vicinity of others while sports events for the audience involve communal celebration but don’t necessitate it. You can protest with a little bit of distance, mask on, and sober while being “safe”.  

but an audience at a major sporting event would mean drinking, possible frequent removal of masks or having them off, and limited distancing. And any drinking will lead to bad behaviors very easily. 

would be for having sports with no audience if we can figure out how to keep the players and their families CoVID free and socially healthy. 

yeah we can agree to disagree.  I love qualifiers.

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I know numbers are difficult but 2 weeks ago Nueces county was averaging 2.5 new cases per day. A week ago that number climbed to 3.5. https://www.kiiitv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/nueces-countys-weekly-coronavirus-cases-still-trending-up-35-average-cases-daily/503-3dee6ebf-6fdd-4135-91ce-4fb989766b42

This week we have had new case days of 23, 34, 62, 65 and I missed one day of reporting. Nueces County had pretty much 2 small protests of a few hundred people.

Port A had 7 cases total and they were all late March to early April. nothing for two months between the first week of April and last week. Port A had no protests. We’ve reported 9 new cases THIS week. And they are setting up mobile testing again Monday because they know there are more.

Mask requirement goes into effect Wednesday. If this doesn’t slowdown in this area all the bars will close again and restaurants will go back to takeout only. I don’t think they will close the beach again, but there is talk of shutting down hotels and short term rentals again.

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I mean, by now, new hospitalizations are certainly not from memorial day. Are you arguing that the timeline isn't right to attribute this surge to protests, or that this surge was going to happen regardless?

New York has had massive, sustained protests now for three weeks. We also have wide spread mask usage and strict limits or prohibitions on in door gatherings. Our cases continue to decline.
Texas also had some protests, but has chosen to open indoor businesses and not enforce mask rules. Your cases are spiking.
Gotta be the protests.

 WSJ - Data shows no marked uptick from protests thus far
To be clear, the point isn’t that protests haven’t resulted in any incremental increase in COVID cases. Outdoor transmission is at least possible even with a mask, although more and more evidence suggests it is a very low possibility. But to say that the large spike in Texas “is clearly linked to the protests” is completely asinine, which is par for the course for this thread.

Yeah, what woodcock has this correct.
There is surely some number of cases from Memorial Day BBQs and such. There is surely some number of cases from protests. But looking at the ages, demographics, means of transmission, and timing, the bulk of the new cases are from activities that actually spread the illness: groups of people near each other indoors. Re-opened bars and such, re-opened workplaces, etc. It’s not more complicated than that.

Outdoor activities, such as bbqs, marches, going to the beach, remain relatively low risk...especially when participants are wearing masks. Indoor activities, where people are close together and not masked, lead to higher transmission. It’s not a political issue...it’s common sense (which, I know, is a political issue. Sigh.)
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In the 3 weeks the protests were going on, not one single news station talked about Covid. They broadcasted these protests with zero mention of how dangerous Covid is and how no one was wearing masks and "omg they are risking their lives!!!". Fast forward 3 weeks to when the protests died down, now the media and talking heads are all over Covid again and spreading the fear. Did Covid just take a halftime break? Why no mention of it all during the protests? That's right, it wasn't a hot topic at the time. Typical of the media and how the influence how people think. Had the protests still been going on, this would still not be news.

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Yeah, what woodcock has this correct.
There is surely some number of cases from Memorial Day BBQs and such. There is surely some number of cases from protests. But looking at the ages, demographics, means of transmission, and timing, the bulk of the new cases are from activities that actually spread the illness: groups of people near each other indoors. Re-opened bars and such, re-opened workplaces, etc. It’s not more complicated than that.

Outdoor activities, such as bbqs, marches, going to the beach, remain relatively low risk...especially when participants are wearing masks. Indoor activities, where people are close together and not masked, lead to higher transmission. It’s not a political issue...it’s common sense (which, I know, is a political issue. Sigh.)

It really sucks catching positives that are a bunch of bar goers young people where they have very little chance of dying.

What exactly is your position? Staying put isn’t stopping anything. Masks help(i wear one) but it’s like a tennis racket trying to stop water from a running faucet. This virus is a flood. It’ll seep in through every nook and cranny.

The people catching it are the ones we want catching it, and now they know they have it..they’re probably not going to go hug, dad and grandpa tomorrow. Unless they’re on a whole new level of unexplained stupidity that I don’t want to believe exists
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In the 3 weeks the protests were going on, not one single news station talked about Covid. They broadcasted these protests with zero mention of how dangerous Covid is and how no one was wearing masks and "omg they are risking their lives!!!". Fast forward 3 weeks to when the protests died down, now the media and talking heads are all over Covid again and spreading the fear. Did Covid just take a halftime break? Why no mention of it all during the protests? That's right, it wasn't a hot topic at the time. Typical of the media and how the influence how people think. Had the protests still been going on, this would still not be news.

Death counters are back! Sorry protests. Your peaceful marches don’t bring the ratings like looting and fires.

 

 

Now let’s bring back Faucci after his 3 week hiatus and have him say he doesn’t believe football can be played. Tack on a projected 200k deaths by October to install the fear. Get people to watch us because declining bargraphs of deaths aren’t working

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7 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

In the 3 weeks the protests were going on, not one single news station talked about Covid. They broadcasted these protests with zero mention of how dangerous Covid is and how no one was wearing masks and "omg they are risking their lives!!!". Fast forward 3 weeks to when the protests died down, now the media and talking heads are all over Covid again and spreading the fear. Did Covid just take a halftime break? Why no mention of it all during the protests? That's right, it wasn't a hot topic at the time. Typical of the media and how the influence how people think. Had the protests still been going on, this would still not be news.

You need to find better sources of news.

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10 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

In the 3 weeks the protests were going on, not one single news station talked about Covid. They broadcasted these protests with zero mention of how dangerous Covid is and how no one was wearing masks and "omg they are risking their lives!!!". Fast forward 3 weeks to when the protests died down, now the media and talking heads are all over Covid again and spreading the fear. Did Covid just take a halftime break? Why no mention of it all during the protests? That's right, it wasn't a hot topic at the time. Typical of the media and how the influence how people think. Had the protests still been going on, this would still not be news.

disagree...i saw numerous stories covering the protests that mentioned how many of them were masked (surprisingly) as well as cautions about risk. i mean, yeah, it wasn't the main story at that point (the protests themselves were) but i don't agree there were 'zero' mentions 🤨 most stories included some version of 'amid a worldwide pandemic...'

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30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Outdoor activities, such as bbqs, marches, going to the beach, remain relatively low risk...especially when participants are wearing masks. Indoor activities, where people are close together and not masked, lead to higher transmission. It’s not a political issue...it’s common sense (which, I know, is a political issue. Sigh.)

You can assign risk levels all you want but people don't go to bbqs and wear masks while they eat. People don't go to beaches and lay out in the heat wearing masks. And people don't yell at marches in the Texas heat wearing masks. Indoor transmission is a risk as well. All these activities are risks and put your family and my family at risk.

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disagree...i saw numerous stories covering the protests that mentioned how many of them were masked (surprisingly) as well as cautions about risk. i mean, yeah, it wasn't the main story at that point (the protests themselves were) but i don't agree there were 'zero' mentions most stories included some version of 'amid a worldwide pandemic...'

National news was leading with cities burning, after math charred remains, arrests and people mouthing off to police.

After the the first commercial break it was “oh and the Coronavirus had another deadly day in America...”
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In the 3 weeks the protests were going on, not one single news station talked about Covid. They broadcasted these protests with zero mention of how dangerous Covid is and how no one was wearing masks and "omg they are risking their lives!!!". Fast forward 3 weeks to when the protests died down, now the media and talking heads are all over Covid again and spreading the fear. Did Covid just take a halftime break? Why no mention of it all during the protests? That's right, it wasn't a hot topic at the time. Typical of the media and how the influence how people think. Had the protests still been going on, this would still not be news.


It really sucks catching positives that are a bunch of bar goers young people where they have very little chance of dying.

What exactly is your position? Staying put isn’t stopping anything. Masks help(i wear one) but it’s like a tennis racket trying to stop water from a running faucet. This virus is a flood. It’ll seep in through every nook and cranny.

The people catching it are the ones we want catching it, and now they know they have it..they’re probably not going to go hug, dad and grandpa tomorrow. Unless they’re on a whole new level of unexplained stupidity that I don’t want to believe exists

You can assign risk levels all you want but people don't go to bbqs and wear masks while they eat. People don't go to beaches and lay out in the heat wearing masks. And people don't yell at marches in the Texas heat wearing masks. Indoor transmission is a risk as well. All these activities are risks and put your family and my family at risk.

1 - the coverage of the protests absolutely discussed COVID risks. And at the huge march I attended, I’d estimate that well over 95% were wearing masks. So, yeah, people actually DO yell at marched wearing masks. I saw thousands of them doing just that.
2 - masks absolutely work to contain droplets closer to you, reducing risks to those around you. Nothing is 100%, but it’s absolutely clear that they dramatically lower transmission.
3 - confined space transmission risk is much higher than outdoor risk, where air movement and the sheer volume of air disperses droplets. That doesn’t mean that outdoors is zero risk, but it is much lower. Again, see the lake of the ozaros crowd - no reported cases from that. See a single Oregon church last week - 200 cases (or something like that).

Limit large indoor gatherings. Require masks in indoor places (stores etc). Require them if outdoors in close proximity to others. There. That’s it. That’s all we have to do. But we can’t/won’t.
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3 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


National news was leading with cities burning, after math charred remains, arrests and people mouthing off to police.

After the the first commercial break it was “oh and the Coronavirus had another deadly day in America...”

So you agree with mchookem and Reynolds and disagree with Vic. There’s hope for you after all.

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1 - the coverage of the protests absolutely discussed COVID risks. And at the huge march I attended, I’d estimate that well over 95% were wearing masks. So, yeah, people actually DO yell at marched wearing masks. I saw thousands of them doing just that.
2 - masks absolutely work to contain droplets closer to you, reducing risks to those around you. Nothing is 100%, but it’s absolutely clear that they dramatically lower transmission.
3 - confined space transmission risk is much higher than outdoor risk, where air movement and the sheer volume of air disperses droplets. That doesn’t mean that outdoors is zero risk, but it is much lower. Again, see the lake of the ozaros crowd - no reported cases from that. See a single Oregon church last week - 200 cases (or something like that).

Limit large indoor gatherings. Require masks in indoor places (stores etc). Require them if outdoors in close proximity to others. There. That’s it. That’s all we have to do. But we can’t/won’t.

Agree. Still doesn’t mean the ones getting it now is a doomsday bad thing, now that they know they have it and can self isolate and tell those they know they’ve been exposed if they’ve had close contact recently.
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11 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


National news was leading with cities burning, after math charred remains, arrests and people mouthing off to police.

After the the first commercial break it was “oh and the Coronavirus had another deadly day in America...”

and...? i mean, yeah, worldwide racial/police protests, a million americans in the streets and american cities on fire was a probably the bigger story at the moment, right?

i just disagree with the notion that the media just started omitting covid coverage altogether. patently untrue. 

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and...? i mean, yeah, worldwide racial/police protests, a million americans in the streets and american cities on fire was a probably the bigger story at the moment, right?

i just disagree with the notion that the media just started omitting covid coverage altogether. patently untrue. 

It’s because death numbers aren’t as high to be worthy enough of being the top story like it was back in April. We’ve seen unrest, burning and looting in Ferguson, Baltimore. We’ve never seen a pandemic that killed so many people right away....and a month later after the death peak its second fiddle. Vics point is that now protests aren’t the headliner it was 4 weeks ago and we’re back to BREAKING NEWS covid spike fear porn. They are not mentioning the spikes are with young health(ier) people. I’d be shocked if there’s a noticeable death lag behind these spikes.

 

 

 

And then what happens next when America’s mostly reopened, and the deaths continue to drop?

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7 hours ago, Iceman said:

those were absolutely "demand crushing supply" issues resulting from insane panic as opposed to actual threats to well being.  By late April they had normalized in most places.

What are you asking about masks and massive worker shortages due to infections?  There was panic, for sure.

What about the satellite ham plants?

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5 hours ago, utee94 said:

This link for Austin shows age demographics for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by age group (and other metrics).

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

Unfortunately I don't see any historical data for trend analysis, you'have to have captured it daily to run the trends yourself I think.  However, I can say that  I checked a few weeks ago and at that time the 20-29 age group made up 22% of the cases, and now it's increased to 24%.  And the 40-49 group was previously 21% of the cases, and now it's down to 17%.  The group in-between, 30-39, has held steady at 22%.  That means a higher percentage of the positive test cases are coming from the younger age group now, compared to a couple of weeks ago.  That might, or might not, be related to the protests.  Obviously there's no way to know for sure.

The historical data may be buried in there somewhere if you were interested in tracking it down.

 

The referenced link shows that the bulk of the spike is in the Hispanic communities, both by numbers and locations.  78741 and 78744 are the SE Hispanic center while 78753 and 78758 is the NE center.

I know a good number of people from both of these areas and the don’t give a fuck level is high to very high in the communities.  Large gatherings, no masks, crowded shopping venues, and an overall lack of concern.  
 

We had a small family gathering last weekend inside the lake austin/travis horseshoe and a parade went through a semi rural area, probably 150-200 people, around 30 charro riders (dancing horses), but most piled into different trailers.  One with a band, one with a BBQ set up, several with older folks sitting at picnic tables, and a hay ride with 45-50 kids crammed on.   It’s was quite a sight, but social distancing and any thought of a mask were clearly not a consideration.  

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40 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

It’s because death numbers aren’t as high to be worthy enough of being the top story like it was back in April. We’ve seen unrest, burning and looting in Ferguson, Baltimore. We’ve never seen a pandemic that killed so many people right away....and a month later after the death peak its second fiddle. Vics point is that now protests aren’t the headliner it was 4 weeks ago and we’re back to BREAKING NEWS covid spike fear porn. They are not mentioning the spikes are with young health(ier) people. I’d be shocked if there’s a noticeable death lag behind these spikes.

 

 

 

And then what happens next when America’s mostly reopened, and the deaths continue to drop?

oh, okay. i thought his point was the media completely ignored covid while the protests were the top story, that there were 'zero' mentions. because that's what he said. 

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6 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

My heads not in the sand. I’m just tired of everyone blaming it on “sides” and being outraged at something new everyday the the other team is doing.

You know what else was going on in April? Everyone was bitching that “the other side” hadn’t really shut down. People were bitching about beaches being open. Enough wasn’t being done. But history is being revised just a month later. Now we are outraged that people are going to protest. Or no, it’s not the protest, every single one of them was being responsible, it’s those rural rubes, or people going to the 50% capacity restaurant. It’s never “my thing” that is the problem or all the things as a complex whole, it’s just simply some other imaginary fucking side that is the problem, and it is so goddam tiring. 

  

Oh, I’m with you on all that. I’m sick of all the political bullshit. What I was saying earlier, and it’s really really fucking clear here locally, we are spiking heavily because we aren’t wearing masks or socially distancing indoors. That’s it. The businesses and especially the bars and restaurants are going to get shutdown again. Quickly.

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3 hours ago, South Austin said:

Just went to The Domain to pick up an order of cookies for my kids, and there’s a large number of people out and about giving no fucks. I don’t think we’re heading for Armageddon, but I also don’t see the numbers coming down any time soon.

Yep. River in San Marcos is packed. No parking at all. Parks are going to close down on the 25th again. Why then as our numbers are spiking? No fucking idea. 

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7 hours ago, drt said:

Public heath regulations and enforcement shouldn’t be on local businesses. How anyone thinks this is out of the scope of government is beyond me.  This is precisely why Pinthouse closed for a while, they didn’t want the responsibility of making and enforcing public policy regulations for the safety of their patrons and employees.

Businesses do not want their employees getting shit on by a bunch of Karens who don't think they should have to wear masks.

 

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It’s almost like we Americans are an unruly population that is not easily controlled relative to other countries. We DGAF and are willing to take on higher levels of risk than others. It’s served us well over time.  Sometimes it doesn’t. 

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Ok so I can see the line from some people now is that large outdoor gatherings like the protests are ok because “everybody” was wearing masks. So are we down for some DKR this fall if masks are required?  Like not 1/2 capacity either because people weren’t six feet apart at the protests. Let’s fill that bitch up. 
 

At Horseshoe Bay this weekend. Distancing not happening btw.  

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8 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Is there a source for that data? Karl That's interesting if true, but Karl Denniger is a wee bit politically slanted so I'd be interested to see the primary source.

If true, my guesses at contributing factors would be a combination of: mortality data taking weeks to report, meaning the current count is incomplete; fewer accidental deaths, as accidental deaths (not just vehicle accidents - overdoses, falls, whatever) are the third leading US cause of death; obviously the spike in NYC area COVID deaths was concentrated among older patients, some, though certainly not anywhere near all, may have passed over the past few months without COVID anyway (you'd have to dive into individual patient circumstances to really get an accurate count); suicides are also in the top 10 causes of death and are the only other item that isn't some sort of disease or medical incident that you wouldn't necessarily expect to see a decrease for - perhaps those are down; fewer assault/homicide deaths (probably not a big enough number to explain a whole lot though).

Those are all guesses, for what it's worth.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/3yf8-kanr

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On 6/19/2020 at 4:59 PM, XYZ said:

What do y'all think of this chart? I saw it initially on the Karl Denninger blog and I decided to make my own with more years, and I adjusted the deaths each year according to population growth. It shows the number of weekly deaths. I want you to focus on the red curve, where it dips below the others. Why do you think that is happening? In case you are thinking "fewer vehicle accident deaths", the average weekly number of deaths in vehicle accidents is around 730. As of the last reported week on this chart, which ended on 6/6, we were at around 15,000 fewer weekly deaths than previous years, so even if all 730 vehicle accidents went away (they didn't), that would only account for 5% of the drop in deaths.

396250763_AllCauseMortality.thumb.png.0f2bfcbcfdf95cc83e3a0c143e23232b.png

 

8 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Is there a source for that data? Karl That's interesting if true, but Karl Denniger is a wee bit politically slanted so I'd be interested to see the primary source.

If true, my guesses at contributing factors would be a combination of: mortality data taking weeks to report, meaning the current count is incomplete; fewer accidental deaths, as accidental deaths (not just vehicle accidents - overdoses, falls, whatever) are the third leading US cause of death; obviously the spike in NYC area COVID deaths was concentrated among older patients, some, though certainly not anywhere near all, may have passed over the past few months without COVID anyway (you'd have to dive into individual patient circumstances to really get an accurate count); suicides are also in the top 10 causes of death and are the only other item that isn't some sort of disease or medical incident that you wouldn't necessarily expect to see a decrease for - perhaps those are down; fewer assault/homicide deaths (probably not a big enough number to explain a whole lot though).

Those are all guesses, for what it's worth.

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Dear god guys, it just incomplete data for recent weeks. That information takes a long time to get to processed by the states and then sent to NCHS. You're comparing complete data from previous years to do partial data from this year.  You didn't really think we magically dipped below 40K deaths a week, did you?

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Last week I had to visit two hospitals in Harris County for work. My work is related to facility management, not medical. Zero fucks given by the employees at both places in regards to distancing, masks, etc. And these are people who work at a fucking hospital. And here is a dirty little secret: you would think that a hospital, because of the need for sanitary conditions, would spend money to keep air conditioning equipment in good shape and all that. Well, in a shockingly high number of cases you would be wrong if you made that assumption.

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30 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Dear god guys, it just incomplete data for recent weeks. That information takes a long time to get to processed by the states and then sent to NCHS. You're comparing complete data from previous years to do partial data from this year.  You didn't really think we magically dipped below 40K deaths a week, did you?

So, how many months would you say you have to wait for the CDC data to be trustworthy?

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30 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

Still not in the protest timeframe I guess?  APH been silent on their tracing result last 10 or so days. There are a lot of intertwined factors here but it’s crazy to say that mass gatherings in 10s of thousand had no impact. 

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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