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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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On 8/16/2020 at 7:42 PM, longhornmatt said:

Anecdotally, I don’t think it’s just noise.  

Rasmussen doing their thing again. They've got Biden up by just a point, 45-44. Their crosstabs, which they don't release publicly, are good for a laugh. 

Biden up 54-43 with seniors buts it a tie at 42% among 18-39 year olds.

Biden only pulling 58% of the black vote, with Trump taking 29%!!!!!!

Tied at 41 among "other" races. 

Trump pulling 20% of Democrats and Biden pulling 17% of Republicans. 

But hey, they did their job, knocked Biden down half n a point in the RCP average and knocked the 538 model down to 69%.

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2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Rasmussen doing their thing again. They've got Biden up by just a point, 45-44. Their crosstabs, which they don't release publicly, are good for a laugh. 

Biden up 54-43 with seniors buts it a tie at 42% among 18-39 year olds.

Biden only pulling 58% of the black vote, with Trump taking 29%!!!!!!

Tied at 41 among "other" races. 

Trump pulling 20% of Democrats and Biden pulling 17% of Republicans. 

But hey, they did their job, knocked Biden down half n a point in the RCP average and knocked the 538 model down to 69%.

The only way that is remotely possible is if the Russians delete a bunch of the swing state black vote again like they did in Michigan in 2016. 
 

And how is 18-39 tied? 
 

Where are you getting these numbers? 

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1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

The only way that is remotely possible is if the Russians delete a bunch of the swing state black vote again like they did in Michigan in 2016. 
 

And how is 18-39 tied? 
 

Where are you getting these numbers? 

You can see them if you buy a platinum subscription to Rasmussen Reports. Someone leaked them on Twitter.

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1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

You can see them if you buy a platinum subscription to Rasmussen Reports. Someone leaked them on Twitter.

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We're expected to believe that Trump is only winning 77% of the Republicans and Biden 76%of the Democrats? I know you're the messenger here but come on.

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8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

We're expected to believe that Trump is only winning 77% of the Republicans and Biden 76%of the Democrats? I know you're the messenger here but come on.

From reading their methodology all they do is robocalls supplemented with a few online surveys. I’m not a pollster but how can that possibly be accurate? 

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35 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:


AZ and NM not necessarily in the bag for Biden.

NM is in the bag. Clinton won it by 8 points in 2016 and the most recent polls I can find in my quick search show Biden up double digits. Arizona is definitely a toss up but I was just showing that even if Wisconsin goes to Trump, he still has to win every other toss-up state if he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan. It's possible that happens, but seems unlikely. We'll find out very quickly how this is going to go IMO. 

If Michigan and Pennsylvania go to Biden, Trump doesn't have a good path to win it. 

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11 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

From reading their methodology all they do is robocalls supplemented with a few online surveys. I’m not a pollster but how can that possibly be accurate? 

They also basically have a "secret formula" for their likely voter screen. Explains a lot about their outlier results.

I can't say that they're straight up making up numbers, but at a minimum they appear to have a very specific assumptions about the makeup of the electorate that are shared by no other pollsters. LIkely causes them to putting crazy weights on their samples which yield these hard to fathom crosstabs.

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4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

They also basically have a "secret formula" for their likely voter screen. Explains a lot about their outlier results.

I can't say that they're straight up making up numbers, but at a minimum they appear to have a very specific assumptions about the makeup of the electorate that are shared by no other pollsters. LIkely causes them to putting crazy weights on their samples which yield these hard to fathom crosstabs.

The fact that they predicted the republicans would keep the house in 2018 is really all you need to know. That’s not even a hard one to predict or poll. Presidential races are more volatile. They are full of shit. 

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The only 18-39 year old answering robocall political polls are drunk or high as shit. 
 

So I guess the presidential race is tied up among 18-39 year old drunk or high as shit likely voters who will take the time to bother to answer a political robocall. Good to know. 

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11 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

NM is in the bag. Clinton won it by 8 points in 2016 and the most recent polls I can find in my quick search show Biden up double digits. Arizona is definitely a toss up but I was just showing that even if Wisconsin goes to Trump, he still has to win every other toss-up state if he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan. It's possible that happens, but seems unlikely. We'll find out very quickly how this is going to go IMO. 

If Michigan and Pennsylvania go to Biden, Trump doesn't have a good path to win it. 

This all assumes Trump wins Florida. Without Florida, he'd have to win a bunch of states like NM and MN, which he won't. If he does it means votes were changed. 

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10 minutes ago, Red Five said:

This all assumes Trump wins Florida. Without Florida, he'd have to win a bunch of states like NM and MN, which he won't. If he does it means votes were changed. 

Totally agree. I just gave him everything in the south in that map just for the sake of argument. If Florida goes blue, everyone might as well tune into something else because it'll be over. I'd probably just keep watching to see how bad the route is, though. 

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1 minute ago, LurkingHorn said:

Totally agree. I just gave him everything in the south in that map just for the sake of argument. If Florida goes blue, everyone might as well tune into something else because it'll be over. I'd probably just keep watching to see how bad the route is, though. 

Pretty safe bet the other state results will be known before Florida is decided... Florida just can't help itself

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On 8/24/2020 at 11:20 PM, henrygandorf said:

i know one of the 5mm, though not that well.

he's going to live off the grid.  as for "how he is voting", yeah, he's never voting ever again.  not sure what's going on in the world that made him so disillusioned.

Crazy times man. 

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2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Rasmussen doing their thing again. They've got Biden up by just a point, 45-44. Their crosstabs, which they don't release publicly, are good for a laugh. 

Biden up 54-43 with seniors buts it a tie at 42% among 18-39 year olds.

Biden only pulling 58% of the black vote, with Trump taking 29%!!!!!!

Tied at 41 among "other" races. 

Trump pulling 20% of Democrats and Biden pulling 17% of Republicans. 

But hey, they did their job, knocked Biden down half n a point in the RCP average and knocked the 538 model down to 69%.

What an utterly absurd poll. 

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This obviously gives me pause before doing a batflip:

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/513820-lincoln-project-republican-says-polls-undercount-trump-support

 

Quote

The polling outlet Trafalgar Group, which was the only pollster to show Trump ahead in Michigan on Election Day in 2016, seeks to account for this so-called “social desirability” effect in its polls. The lead pollster there has told The Hill there are more “silent” Trump voters in 2020 than there were in 2016.

Trafalgar’s polls have shown a tighter race than what other pollsters have found. One of their recent surveys found Trump and Biden tied in Minnesota, a state Clinton won in 2016 that the Trump campaign insists is up for grabs in 2020.

The Minnesota number doesn't make much sense to me since the previous poll had Biden up by 5 points. Not sure why Biden would have dropped 3 points with nothing really earth-shattering to drag him down like that. 

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2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

They also basically have a "secret formula" for their likely voter screen. Explains a lot about their outlier results.

I can't say that they're straight up making up numbers, but at a minimum they appear to have a very specific assumptions about the makeup of the electorate that are shared by no other pollsters. LIkely causes them to putting crazy weights on their samples which yield these hard to fathom crosstabs.

I broadly have a problem with a "likely-voter screen" to begin with.  At the beginning of your poll, you ask "do you plan to vote."  If the answer is "yes," then most pollsters take that to be a likely voter.  Some pollsters go further, putting it on a five-point scale.  But the concept is the same--the respondent tells you whether they're a likely voter.

Rasmussen and a few others have more of a screen.  They'll ask "did you vote in 2016," or "do you know where your polling place is."  And if the answer to either is "no," then they'll put you down as being less likely.

So the whole concept of a likely-voter screen is that respondents will lie to a pollster about their likelihood of voting, but they'll tell the pollster the truth about everything else.  It's just completely bizarre and, I think, false.

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2 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

This obviously gives me pause before doing a batflip:

All of this social unrest and chaos (including now NBA players protesting games) helps Trump IMO.   Your average joe suburban American in the swing states in 2020 is sick and tired of the constant negative news stories and want anything resembling normalcy, and despite the fact that Trump is a major contributor and has escalated all of this chaos, he will promise only he can deliver normalcy.   More rioting, cancel culture, pro sports boycotts, will all play right into his hands.  I don't agree this SHOULD be the case, and certainly not my personal view, but this will be Trump's message.  They will hammer that the Dems are behind cancel culture, the Dems are the ones refusing to open up schools and play football this fall, the Dems are those boycotting basketball, etc. etc.   I.e, the reason you Mr and Mrs white suburban voter are not experiencing a normal life right now is because of the Dems.    I.e., it's the Clay Travis narrative that has made him rich and Trump is starting to piggy back on.

Then, Trump's going to pressure the FDA to approve a vaccine (whether ready yet or not) and it will be announced in mid to late October (which will give him a further bump).  If the Dems can't find a way to combat all of this, that asshole is going to win again.  That is my fear.

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5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

All of this social unrest and chaos (including now NBA players protesting games) helps Trump IMO.   Your average joe suburban American in the swing states in 2020 is sick and tired of the constant negative news stories and want anything resembling normalcy, and despite the fact that Trump is a major contributor and has escalated all of this chaos, he will promise only he can deliver normalcy.   

This makes zero sense. HE IS IN CHARGE NOW. If he could fix the unrest, there’d be no violence in the streets now. That tack only resonates if he were the challenger. “Look how shitty things are when I’m the president” doesn’t have as much persuasion power as you think. 

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3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Wait, he’s not a babbling incompetent being spoon fed in a nursing home? Now he’s so sharp that he’s on drugs? What drugs even work that way? like adderal? Limitless?

Medicine. If Biden has a cure for dementia, he should offer some to Trump. 

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Just now, Pig Bellmont said:

This makes zero sense. HE IS IN CHARGE NOW. If he could fix the unrest, there’d be no violence in the streets now. That tack only resonates if he were the challenger. “Look how shitty things are when I’m the president” doesn’t have as much persuasion power as you think. 

Polls show it's not helping him.

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24 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I broadly have a problem with a "likely-voter screen" to begin with.  At the beginning of your poll, you ask "do you plan to vote."  If the answer is "yes," then most pollsters take that to be a likely voter.  Some pollsters go further, putting it on a five-point scale.  But the concept is the same--the respondent tells you whether they're a likely voter.

Rasmussen and a few others have more of a screen.  They'll ask "did you vote in 2016," or "do you know where your polling place is."  And if the answer to either is "no," then they'll put you down as being less likely.

So the whole concept of a likely-voter screen is that respondents will lie to a pollster about their likelihood of voting, but they'll tell the pollster the truth about everything else.  It's just completely bizarre and, I think, false.

Counterpoint- don’t likely voter polls usually do marginally better than registered vote polls in predicting the election?  At least comparing company X likely voter screen against company X registered voter screen? 

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3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

This makes zero sense. HE IS IN CHARGE NOW. If he could fix the unrest, there’d be no violence in the streets now. That tack only resonates if he were the challenger. “Look how shitty things are when I’m the president” doesn’t have as much persuasion power as you think. 

His message is and has been the reason for the unrest is weak D leadership.  We are living in peak idiocracy where society at large has no ability to critically analyze anything.  It's a simple message that could work.

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18 minutes ago, Skipper said:

All of this social unrest and chaos (including now NBA players protesting games) helps Trump IMO.   Your average joe suburban American in the swing states in 2020 is sick and tired of the constant negative news stories and want anything resembling normalcy, and despite the fact that Trump is a major contributor and has escalated all of this chaos, he will promise only he can deliver normalcy.   More rioting, cancel culture, pro sports boycotts, will all play right into his hands.  I don't agree this SHOULD be the case, and certainly not my personal view, but this will be Trump's message.  They will hammer that the Dems are behind cancel culture, the Dems are the ones refusing to open up schools and play football this fall, the Dems are those boycotting basketball, etc. etc.   I.e, the reason you Mr and Mrs white suburban voter are not experiencing a normal life right now is because of the Dems.    I.e., it's the Clay Travis narrative that has made him rich and Trump is starting to piggy back on.

Then, Trump's going to pressure the FDA to approve a vaccine (whether ready yet or not) and it will be announced in mid to late October (which will give him a further bump).  If the Dems can't find a way to combat all of this, that asshole is going to win again.  That is my fear.

Look, there are a lot of people who just want it to stop. That’s basically how Biden is positioning himself- as a return to normal. Trump, as the incumbent, isn’t likely to benefit by the shit show that we are currently living through. 

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13 minutes ago, Skipper said:

His message is and has been the reason for the unrest is weak D leadership.  We are living in peak idiocracy where society at large has no ability to critically analyze anything.  It's a simple message that could work.

Yeah.  I'm not expressing myself clearly.

Most "likely-voter polls" don't really have a "screen" as such.  They ask the respondent whether s/he is likely to vote.  And they take the respondent's word for it.  

But some polls use a "screen" by asking the respondent a bunch of other questions.  And then based on those answers, the pollster will make an independent decision as to whether the respondent is or isn't likely to vote.

Both methods will come out as being "a poll of 750 likely voters."  It's just a question of how you decide who is a likely voter.  Do you take the respondent's word for it or not?

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There are a lot of posters here with battered aggy syndrome.

- New Mexico is in the bag.  New Hampshire too.

- Minnesota has the longest current streak in the country of voting Democrat in presidential elections and the GOP got wiped out there 2 years ago in a midterm that was close to presidential election turnout.

- Wisconsin still has a good chance to go blue probably 60%

- Arizona and Georgia are looking more blue then ever, Texas too.

 

the social unrest doesn’t help trump. I don’t see how they will pin all of this stuff on the Democrats when Trump himself is currently in charge and he’s not doing anything to stop the unrest. Anyone who believes we aren’t playing football and having a normal life because of the democrats alone is a complete and utter moron. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

 

 

the social unrest doesn’t help trump. I don’t see how they will pin all of this stuff on the Democrats when Trump himself is currently in charge and he’s not doing anything to stop the unrest. Anyone who believes we aren’t playing football and having a normal life because of the democrats alone is a complete and utter moron. 
 

 

Maybe I'm around too many complete and utter morons.  The pro trump voters I know absolutely blame the D's for everything.  I'm more concerned about right leaning moderates.  It's anecdotal but I'm almost positive an acquaintance has moved from Biden back to Trump based on a recent conversation and I wonder how many of those are out there.   I think the vast majority of voters have firmly picked a side and won't be swayed by anything that happens.  But I don't think all of the social unrest and cancel culture helps Biden with the moderates on the fence.

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6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Maybe I'm around too many complete and utter morons.  The pro trump voters I know absolutely blame the D's for everything.  I'm more concerned about right leaning moderates.  It's anecdotal but I'm almost positive an acquaintance has moved from Biden back to Trump based on a recent conversation and I wonder how many of those are out there.   I think the vast majority of voters have firmly picked a side and won't be swayed by anything that happens.  But I don't think all of the social unrest and cancel culture helps Biden with the moderates on the fence.

It sounds like the people you know blame the democrats for all of their failures and problems in life.

i’m imagining one of these friends being a heavy set guy in his late 40’s whose truck won’t start and he can’t go to work that day yelling “ EFFING DEMOCRATS”.

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Maybe I'm around too many complete and utter morons.  The pro trump voters I know absolutely blame the D's for everything.  I'm more concerned about right leaning moderates.  It's anecdotal but I'm almost positive an acquaintance has moved from Biden back to Trump based on a recent conversation and I wonder how many of those are out there.   I think the vast majority of voters have firmly picked a side and won't be swayed by anything that happens.  But I don't think all of the social unrest and cancel culture helps Biden with the moderates on the fence.

Right leaning moderates who were theoretically in play are solidifying behind Trump as the lesser of two evils right now - which is the wrong way to look at the situation by them but not surprising. It was going to be difficult to get them aligned behind a Democrat anyway.
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21 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It sounds like the people you know blame the democrats for all of their failures and problems in life.

i’m imagining one of these friends being a heavy set guy in his late 40’s whose truck won’t start and he can’t go to work that day yelling “ EFFING DEMOCRATS”.

Imagine well off professionals that don't like Trump but want their kids to go to school, want to watch college football and want to crack a beer and watch an NBA game without the politics.  Or his wife that is afraid that the chaos on the news will expand to the burbs with more 'liberal leadership'.  These folks are real potential Biden voters Trump is trying to reel back in.  Extremely anecdotal but a conversation I had with a client was enlightening as it's pretty clear to me his vote has swung in the last month or so based on prior conversations.  Now he's in Georgia so his State wasn't in play anyways.   I'll argue I think the way they are viewing the situation is wrong but it is what it is.   I just think Trump is going to do a good job of putting Biden in a tough spot to hold onto moderate swing voters by forcing him to embrace the left generally, and current events (especially as COVID improves) help with that.

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49 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It sounds like the people you know blame the democrats for all of their failures and problems in life.

i’m imagining one of these friends being a heavy set guy in his late 40’s whose truck won’t start and he can’t go to work that day yelling “ EFFING DEMOCRATS”.

Don't think it's that.  

There are white, college educated males that have been on the fence, and will be choosing Trump this week.  I doubt there is much fence-sitting with females right now.

Some of the white, college educated males will switch before it's time to vote.  Some won't and will stick. We probably won't know this for another 4-5 weeks.  

But, I think more people have wired into one or the other candidate earlier more than perhaps any election since Reagan in '84 or Nixon in '68.

 

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40 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:


Right leaning moderates who were theoretically in play are solidifying behind Trump as the lesser of two evils right now - which is the wrong way to look at the situation by them but not surprising. It was going to be difficult to get them aligned behind a Democrat anyway.

Are you a pro conservative trump can still win the suburbs troll so long as he brings out the fear of the darkies? Because you are posting like a total dumbass.

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18 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Imagine well off professionals that don't like Trump but want their kids to go to school, want to watch college football and want to crack a beer and watch an NBA game without the politics.  Or his wife that is afraid that the chaos on the news will expand to the burbs with more 'liberal leadership'.  These folks are real potential Biden voters Trump is trying to reel back in.  Extremely anecdotal but a conversation I had with a client was enlightening as it's pretty clear to me his vote has swung in the last month or so based on prior conversations.  Now he's in Georgia so his State wasn't in play anyways.   I'll argue I think the way they are viewing the situation is wrong but it is what it is.   I just think Trump is going to do a good job of putting Biden in a tough spot to hold onto moderate swing voters by forcing him to embrace the left generally, and current events (especially as COVID improves) help with that.

It’s hard to imagine educated, intelligent, successful people thinking that way, but whatever. I live in the suburbs and sleep just fine. I know that the chances of some huge mob of random black people coming around the corner to intimidate me and take me things is astronomical. I know that if Biden wins, I won’t have to learn Chinese and the suburbs won’t be abolished.

Why would people riot in the suburbs when it’s much easier to riot downtown?
 

Use your head. None of that shits makes any sense whatsoever and shouldn’t make any sense to a voter of sane mind, intelligence, and rationality.

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Nothing that happens this week is going to change anyone's mind that I know of. Everyone who is a white, college educated conservative male that I know was going to vote Trump before the convention. Where is this shit coming from that conventions are changing people's minds? Conventions haven't mattered for the last few elections. This isn't 1988.

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10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s hard to imagine educated, intelligent, successful people thinking that way, but whatever. I live in the suburbs and sleep just fine. I know that the chances of some huge mob of random black people coming around the corner to intimidate me and take me things is astronomical. I know that if Biden wins, I won’t have to learn Chinese and the suburbs won’t be abolished.

Why would people riot in the suburbs when it’s much easier to riot downtown?
 

Use your head. None of that shits makes any sense whatsoever and shouldn’t make any sense to a voter of sane mind, intelligence, and rationality.

It's like you forget that the Suburbs in the Southern states are already HEAVILY Republican/Trump.   You are thinking like you think.  Not how people that generally vote Republican but don't like Trump and were considering Biden might think. 

 

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Good time to roll this out out again 

https://politics.theonion.com/undecided-voter-looking-forward-to-learning-more-about-1844650394
 

Acknowledging his blind spots in regard to the upcoming presidential election, local undecided voter Kenneth McGraw announced Monday that he was looking forward to learning more about Republican candidate Donald Trump over the course of his campaign. “I’ve definitely heard of Donald Trump, but I haven’t taken the time to look into the details of his politics,” said the furniture salesman, adding that it was his duty as an American citizen to thoroughly research the candidate before committing his vote to him. “I’ve seen photos of him, as well as a few episodes of The Apprentice, but beyond that, I want to know what kind of president he would make. For instance, I just found out that he is a father and husband—family is very important to me. Or maybe the newspaper will print some articles that get into his policy proposals. That would definitely help me get to know him better so that I can make an informed decision come November. Wow, see, I just learned that he likes golfing just like me.” At press time, McGraw admitted he hasn’t yet heard who Trump’s opponent will be but plans to set some time aside to research that as well.

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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

It sounds like the people you know blame the democrats for all of their failures and problems in life.

i’m imagining one of these friends being a heavy set guy in his late 40’s whose truck won’t start and he can’t go to work that day yelling “ EFFING DEMOCRATS”.

Thanks Obama. 

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Some of the white males in the suburbs who say they fear marauding hordes of dark-skinned looters or are 'locked and loaded' but not afraid, I think they are really covering for the fear that their daughters might bring home a charming, intelligent, handsome date who isn't white.

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https://www.insider.com/texans-drink-bleach-poison-control-warns-wont-cure-coronavirus-2020-8
 

at least 50 Texans recently diagnosed with Covid 19 have drunk bleach.

its unfortunate, but some people would rather put their personal health on the line by drinking bleach, shrug this pandemic thing off ,and pretend it’s not happening, all in a massive effort to OWN THE LIBS.

maybe I am underestimating how stupid the people in this country are.

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8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.insider.com/texans-drink-bleach-poison-control-warns-wont-cure-coronavirus-2020-8
 

at least 50 Texans recently diagnosed with Covid 19 have drunk bleach.

its unfortunate, but some people would rather put their personal health on the line by drinking bleach, shrug this pandemic thing off ,and pretend it’s not happening, all in a massive effort to OWN THE LIBS.

maybe I am underestimating how stupid the people in this country are.

Do you fucking think? Your behavior on this last page has been fucking absurd. Wulaw level absurd. Anyone sitting here thinking anything is in the bag, or any state, because “What Trump claims makes no sense and people will see that” clearly hasn’t been paying attention the last 4 weeks, 4 months, or 4 fucking years. I know plenty of educated people, some who went to UT, who are sick of cancel culture and woke people dangerously flirting with people’s lives because they made a shitty joke on Twitter 10 years ago. And I know more who look at a raise in the capital gains tax that would come with a likely blue presidency as an attack on their livelihood. You people are underestimating by far how close this election will end up. And thats before the cheating, suppression, October surprise whatever comes into play. 
 

Trumps yelling the loudest and 50% of America won’t listen to anyone else, so that’s the message they hear. Trump is the favorite to win until I see otherwise, like him dying from pancake makeup poisoning that’s seeped into his bloodstream and accumulated over 50 years.

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