2022 Senate Elections

[RDCanecutter 25767]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

The people who weren't going to vote for him won't change their minds.  Probably a bigly number of "undecided" voters who were just Republicans who don't like Oz.  Going after him for it is going to be akin to going after Brandon's speech impediment - clips that will be passed around gleefully around conservative Reddit and Twitter. 

We real Americans use "Brandon" instead of "Biden." It's a code-word and the Libtards don't know who we mean. Pretty durn funny if you ask me.

[Js1 82355]

15 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Undecideds don't watch the debates, but they do read/hear the snippets.  

I am hopping the mother/doctor/politician snippit travels better than Fetterman's troubles.  But, I am concerned just the general narrative of "that guy is still pretty fucked up" will become common accepted even amongst people who never watch a single clip or read a single line.  

Fetterman already up on TV with it.  They were ready. 

 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Fetterman already up on TV with it.  They were ready. 

 

 

On predictit, Fetterman-Oz went from basically dead heat to Oz 2-1 favorite overnight due to debate debacle. An opportunity there for posters that think it actually went well or it doesn’t matter.  
 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016
 

 

 

[Ghost of LL 15225]

39 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Look up Todd Akin’s senate race and his “legitimate rape” comment. 

To my point precisely--that wasn't in a debate.  That was from a television interview that happened in August 2012.

And that timing is part of why I say debates don't matter.  In August, preferences are still fluid.  But by late October, pretty much everyone knows how they're going to vote.  There are very few late deciders, and those that there are don't watch/care about debates.

[Tuco 5003]

5 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

On predictit, Fetterman-Oz went from basically dead heat to Oz 2-1 favorite overnight due to debate debacle. An opportunity there for posters that think it actually went well or it doesn’t matter.  
 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016
 

 

 

Sounds like it's also an opportunity for any poster who thinks Fetterman is now doomed. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13267]

I want Fetterman to win but a candidate's health is 100% an issue in an election. If he's operating on all cylinders and he occasionally screws up with a word, who cares.

Strokes can incapacitate people in different ways. It's fair if voters want to take his stroke into account.

[Incredulity 11141]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I want Fetterman to win but a candidate's health is 100% an issue in an election. If he's operating on all cylinders and he occasionally screws up with a word, who cares.

Strokes can incapacitate people in different ways. It's fair if voters want to take his stroke into account.

I agree.  To that point I think Hillary's going catatonic episode in NY during the 16 campaign was a bigger moment than given credit in the autopsies of 2016 election.

[Humble Beast 258]

12 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Sounds like it's also an opportunity for any poster who thinks Fetterman is now doomed. 

True. I already have money on R Senate control and Masters. 

[Js1 82355]

LOL betting markets. 

What a bunch of losers you truly are. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33693]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

LOL betting markets. 

What a bunch of losers you truly are. 

thanks for putting into words what I was thinking because I couldn't stop laughing long enough to formulate any

[Js1 82355]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

thanks for putting into words what I was thinking because I couldn't stop laughing long enough to formulate any

Predict It, as a I recall, had Trump a heavy betting favorite during the 9pm to midnight hours on Election Day 2020.  Then the mail-in ballots and slow counting counties dumped overnight.  They waited a long time to pay out too. 

it's pretty easy to game it. 

[Bullneck 18617]

58 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Undecideds don't watch the debates, but they do read/hear the snippets.  

I am hopping the mother/doctor/politician snippit travels better than Fetterman's troubles.  But, I am concerned just the general narrative of "that guy is still pretty fucked up" will become common accepted even amongst people who never watch a single clip or read a single line.  

I heard the pretty much the same thing on Morning Joe today: Undecideds don't watch the debates, just the TV the day after.  

[Humble Beast 258]

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

LOL betting markets. 

What a bunch of losers you truly are. 

It makes it more fun to have some money on it. Any interest in betting on Fetterman? I’ll take the other side. 

[henrygandorf 28610]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Predict It, as a I recall, had Trump a heavy betting favorite during the 9pm to midnight hours on Election Day 2020.  Then the mail-in ballots and slow counting counties dumped overnight.  They waited a long time to pay out too. 

it's pretty easy to game it. 

predictit leans right, and always has.  i have fun with it sometimes, mostly around big votes.

you can't ever lose money betting on republicans to "do the right thing" and then choosing not to.

[henrygandorf 28610]

4 hours ago, Macklemore said:

Abortion is towards the bottom of the list of key issues for voters according to polling I’ve seen. Tied with January 6th towards the bottom well behind inflation and crime. Those 2 issues are important to suburban women and they’ll most likely come back to the GOP fold. At least that’s my hope.

i watched about 40 minutes of state by state polling breakdown of issues last week.  if you're only looking at gop priorities, then you're correct.  if you're looking at dem priorities, you're completely upside-down.  if you're looking at overall aggregate polling numbers, it's somewhere in the middle.

you also have to know how polling works.  when these people are asked questions, a lot of it is projection and wishcasting.  it's almost like asking "what would you like the key issues to be in this race?"  abortion was a top 2 issue for dems in almost every swing state/close race and 1st in some.  shocking, the gop doesn't care about jan 6th at all.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33693]

something disgusting yet wholly american about betting on elections. wonder what the venn diagram of those people and people who spout political beliefs but don't bother voting looks like. guessing a pregnant ellipse, at best

Edited October 26, 2022 by Longhorn_Fan68

[Longhorn_Fan68 33693]

14 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

It makes it more fun to have some money on it. Any interest in betting on Fetterman? I’ll take the other side. 

since you have money to throw away this is a pretty good charity: https://toofound.org/

[GopherRock 1759]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Predict It, as a I recall, had Trump a heavy betting favorite during the 9pm to midnight hours on Election Day 2020.  Then the mail-in ballots and slow counting counties dumped overnight.  They waited a long time to pay out too. 

it's pretty easy to game it. 

There was an article that stated that at one point on Election Night, the offshore books had to post Biden as +300 or higher solely because so much money was coming in on Trump. And the head of the book basically said that if you got Biden at those prices, good for you.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6489]

Just wanted to check in on all the posters on Surly to make sure you are all OK.  I have been listening to the highlights from the senate debates last night and it sounds like crime is really rampant across the United States and most of us my not live to even see Election Day.  I will say the Republicans are sooooo good at messaging fear it’s quite impressive.  

Here in N Dallas suburbs there are probably hundreds of thousands of soccer moms who will vote for Republicans in order to stop all of this rampant criminal activity going on yet none of them have been near a crime in person themselves unless you count the white collar crimes their husbands are guilty of for embezzling money to help pay for their McMansions. 

[henrygandorf 28610]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

lol, this person was never voting for Fetterman.  Fuck outta here with that bullshit.

these people always give me pause.  there was a big nyt(?) article before 2020 and it had snippets from 4-5 "random" people they "found" and interviewed.

"jim horvath caucused for klobuchar in iowa, and we asked him about his feelings on whether biden was too old, here's what he said".  after reading the article, i got bored and curious, and tried to track down some of these people online.  one of the people that "leaned left" but had his doubts about the dem field was easy to find on facebook (even though i'm not on facebook) by using his name and geographical location.

the first thing i saw on his page was a hunter biden meme.

gtfo with that shit.

and to add - there's something the gop thinks is very convincing, even to the point that it informs how their comment bots are programmed.  if you ever go through and read the comments on a video or story (and i do not advise this), you'll find an awful lot of "i've been a democrat all my life, i voted for obama twice and hillary, but after i heard about joe biden's connections with china, i just knew trump was the right decision in 2020."

hmm, ok.  they're obsessed with firsthand testimonials from "actual" dems about why they switched.  i guess if it works on just one imbecile, then it works.

[SydneyCarton 47092]

5 hours ago, Macklemore said:

Abortion is towards the bottom of the list of key issues for voters according to polling I’ve seen. Tied with January 6th towards the bottom well behind inflation and crime. Those 2 issues are important to suburban women and they’ll most likely come back to the GOP fold. At least that’s my hope.

Just to be clear to everyone, the "polling" he is referencing here are the poles he's been taking up the ass for years despite the fact that his Christofascist Jesus is sending him to hell for sinning. It was literally probably someone else's dick with "Women Aren't People" written on it in Sharpie. That's the polling in question. 

[The Dog 42744]

 

[The Dog 42744]

[Bozo_Casanova 25499]

7 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

a candidate's health is 100% an issue in an election.

Tell that to John Ashcroft

[PenelopeWitherspoon 18303]

 

 

[gmr548 16252]

This is correct.  I challenge anybody to show me a single non-presidential race in the last 30 years in which a debate had a measurable impact on the outcome.
It's meaningful for the Twitterati.  But actual voters don't watch and don't care.

Presidential debates don’t matter either. This nation doesn’t care about debates. Full stop.

[gmr548 16252]

Predict It, as a I recall, had Trump a heavy betting favorite during the 9pm to midnight hours on Election Day 2020.  Then the mail-in ballots and slow counting counties dumped overnight.  They waited a long time to pay out too. 
it's pretty easy to game it. 

Pretty sure Trump is still the 2020 favorite on predictit…

[heso 2553]

On 10/26/2022 at 10:00 AM, Macklemore said:

Abortion is towards the bottom of the list of key issues for voters according to polling I’ve seen. Tied with January 6th towards the bottom well behind inflation and crime. Those 2 issues are important to suburban women and they’ll most likely come back to the GOP fold. At least that’s my hope.

For context, I live 15 minutes from downtown Pittsburgh. Trump won my precinct by like 3 points in 2020.

Literally every single political ad I’ve gotten in the mail has a statement on abortion.

This is one I got today for the Republican US house candidate, who knows people care so little about abortion that he is mailing 12x16 cards with the only message trying to obfuscate the fact that he supports a nationwide abortion ban.

Edited October 27, 2022 by heso

[Biff Tannen 44917]

20 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

 

If only the Dems had the stones, but they don't.

[Gap03 3143]

1 hour ago, heso said:

For context, I live 15 minutes from downtown Pittsburgh. Trump won my precinct by like 3 points in 2020.

Literally every single political ad I’ve gotten in the mail has a statement on abortion.

This is one I got today for the Republican US house candidate, who knows people care so little about abortion that he is mailing 12x16 cards with the only message trying to obfuscate the fact that he supports a nationwide abortion ban.

[Pato del Muerto 51914]

Damn, someone hit her hard and repeatedly with a pan made of cast ugly. 

Edited October 27, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Guest]

So what has changed from now until August? Inflation is the same as it was? Yet the forecasts for the Senate have turned from strongly in Dem's favor to a tossup?

Fetterman's debate I think is significant. But Herschel Walker is in better standing now than two months ago? Makes. Zero. Sense.

Sure one side is election deniers and takes away rights, but inflation is high.

[SydneyCarton 47092]

4 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So what has changed from now until August? Inflation is the same as it was? Yet the forecasts for the Senate have turned from strongly in Dem's favor to a tossup?

Fetterman's debate I think is significant. But Herschel Walker is in better standing now than two months ago? Makes. Zero. Sense.

Sure one side is election deniers and takes away rights, but inflation is high.

You’re thinking with logic. As opposed to independents we’re always going to find an excuse to come home R. 

[Humble Beast 258]

Some interesting info here. 
 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

52 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So what has changed from now until August? Inflation is the same as it was? Yet the forecasts for the Senate have turned from strongly in Dem's favor to a tossup?

Fetterman's debate I think is significant. But Herschel Walker is in better standing now than two months ago? Makes. Zero. Sense.

Sure one side is election deniers and takes away rights, but inflation is high.

I question whether Dems were ever in a very strong position. Polls in the summer are very different from when people come up on a decision. Dems were always facing major headwinds due to Biden’s unpopularity. 
 

You downplay inflation, but it directly affects the quality of everyday life for people. Not everybody cares about election deniers. Not everybody is worried about whether anyone can get an abortion. Everybody is aware that their cost of living is significantly higher and many of them are hurting because of it.
 

There’s something like 17 months of declining real wages. That hurts whoever’s in charge no matter their role in it happening. 

[Voldemort86 2230]

I’d be shocked if we lost Arizona or Georgia.  Warnock and Kelly are both grade A candidates and they’re up against such dog shit.

[Voldemort86 2230]

One good thing about the Georgia race is that it will likely go to a run off. 

most likely outcomes probably are :

run off

Warnock win,

Walker win,

Warnock run off win,

 Walker run off win.

[berlinerbaer 663]

2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So what has changed from now until August? Inflation is the same as it was? Yet the forecasts for the Senate have turned from strongly in Dem's favor to a tossup?

Fetterman's debate I think is significant. But Herschel Walker is in better standing now than two months ago? Makes. Zero. Sense.

Sure one side is election deniers and takes away rights, but inflation is high.

PA over the summer was at 48 - 38 D with 15+ undecided. Now its more like 48 - 45 D with less than 10% undecided.

Dems aren't getting hurt as much as Republican leaners are finally coming around to accepting their guy. That makes for a coin flip in the purple states and probably a close loss in the redder places like OH and NC, where it may have appeared that the Dem was doing well.

It also suggests that the Dem strategy of promoting shit GOP candidates was working. Was being the key word. 

I'm cautiously optimistic with Fetterman because he is still above 50% in some recent polls. It's when both candidates are knotted up in the mid 40s when we are at the whim of late-breaking infrequent voters.

[Js1 82355]

7 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

Dems aren't getting hurt as much as Republican leaners are finally coming around to accepting their guy.

Which was always going to happen 

[South Austin 51409]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’d be shocked if we lost Arizona or Georgia.  Warnock and Kelly are both grade A candidates and they’re up against such dog shit.

New to America, eh?

[gmr548 16252]

I’d be shocked if we lost Arizona or Georgia.  Warnock and Kelly are both grade A candidates and they’re up against such dog shit.

Have you ever been to the United States?

[heso 2553]

8 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

PA over the summer was at 48 - 38 D with 15+ undecided. Now its more like 48 - 45 D with less than 10% undecided.

Dems aren't getting hurt as much as Republican leaners are finally coming around to accepting their guy. That makes for a coin flip in the purple states and probably a close loss in the redder places like OH and NC, where it may have appeared that the Dem was doing well.

It also suggests that the Dem strategy of promoting shit GOP candidates was working. Was being the key word. 

I'm cautiously optimistic with Fetterman because he is still above 50% in some recent polls. It's when both candidates are knotted up in the mid 40s when we are at the whim of late-breaking infrequent voters.

This tracks with the yard sign environment around here. 3-4 months ago you didn’t see a sign for Oz anywhere. You’d only rarely see a Mastriano sign. The only signs were for Fetterman and Shapiro. The Republicans would just have Trump signs or fuck Biden signs or Brandon signs. 

But as it’s gotten closer to the election it’s now acceptable in those circles to be seen openly supporting a fake conservative snake oil salesman because he has an R next to his name. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25499]

They always come home. 

[YGIFS 19443]

Just venting as per usual, as we have no Senate race in Texas right now.  But just bizarre to me how few yard signs we have in our neighborhood.  It's about 100 homes and every two years anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 homes had a sign of some sort from city council to POTUS.  And I think there's maybe 5 total in the whole HOA.  Just weird for such a charged election cycle.  I suspect it's a lotta closeted straight R voters, but also some D folks that don't wanna broadcast it either.  It's a pretty split neighborhood consiering we live in a rather red part of a rather blue city.  It made me go back and count my ballot up.  47 races/propositions.  23 were unopposed so didn't count those/vote in those.  Of the 24 I voted on, 4 Libertarian, 2 No's/anti-liberal spending bullshit, 9 Democrat, 9 Republican.  Took me 4 minutes since I had it written out on scratch paper ahead of time.  I'll never, ever understand straight ticket voting in Texas.  Bottles the mind.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13267]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

They always come home. 

Always easy to talk yourself into your true character after lying to yourself for months. The PA GOP was always going to vote for Oz but didn't want to admit it outloud.

I heard a good line from Pod Save America. Vote for Fetterman for his opinions not his temporary communication challenges.

[Js1 82355]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Always easy to talk yourself into your true character after lying to yourself for months. The PA GOP was always going to vote for Oz but didn't want to admit it outloud.

I heard a good line from Pod Save America. Vote for Fetterman for his opinions not his temporary communication challenges.

He’s also in 24/7 campaign mode. If he wins, it’s almost 2 months before he gets sworn in. He could rehab while putting together staff and offices 

[Humble Beast 258]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Always easy to talk yourself into your true character after lying to yourself for months. The PA GOP was always going to vote for Oz but didn't want to admit it outloud.

I heard a good line from Pod Save America. Vote for Fetterman for his opinions not his temporary communication challenges.

Calling them temporary challenges is wishcasting at best, being deceptive at worst. The man has pronounced aphasia 5 months out. He also could have other issues with cognition that they’re hiding. 
 

 

 

 

[Horn Dog 9458]

18 hours ago, heso said:

For context, I live 15 minutes from downtown Pittsburgh. Trump won my precinct by like 3 points in 2020.

Literally every single political ad I’ve gotten in the mail has a statement on abortion.

This is one I got today for the Republican US house candidate, who knows people care so little about abortion that he is mailing 12x16 cards with the only message trying to obfuscate the fact that he supports a nationwide abortion ban.

Jeremy will stand up for women's healthcare, but is vehemently opposed to women's dental care.

[A-Tex Devil 2405]

The stroke thing is a fucking smoke screen to hide one’s Maga tendencies given Oz is a complete joke.  Hmmmmm….. vote for a snake oil salesman or a proven public servant who, if he has to resign, would result in Shapiro (hopefully) appointing a successor.
 

Of course if you are doing the former you already were, and you are voting for Mastrioni too.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13267]

39 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Calling them temporary challenges is wishcasting at best, being deceptive at worst. The man has pronounced aphasia 5 months out. He also could have other issues with cognition that they’re hiding. 
 

 

 

 

I share concerns if a senator has permanent health problems but I'm not an expert in assessing someone from a TV debate. If I was a PA voter, I admit that I would have hesitations about voting for Fetterman but that doesn't mean I'm voting for Oz. 

In a perfect world, we would have a candidate's doctor give an honest and open evaluation of the candidate's health. 2016 with Trump showed that his doctor lied, or let Trump design his own health report.