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COVID-19 vaccine discussion


Texas Jeff

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1 minute ago, maninblack said:

That's a wild statement considering they're at virtually no risk. But we're living in the upside down so you do you. 

Well, they’re both pretty sick with a positive test and the NICU hospital capacity is not good right now.  That qualifies as some risk to me.

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1 hour ago, Satoshi said:

Not sure if serious but zero risk is false. There’s a couple recent studies/surveys that show risk of myocarditis in boys specifically is higher than risk of same kids getting hospitalized with Covid. 
 

As they say these are estimates, but there’s multiple coming in now at higher numbers so less likely that they’re that far off. Also add that the Uk did not approve vaccines in 12-15 year olds and it’s safe to say that the science is not settled on this. Certainly not zero risk, especially if you’re giving adult doses to small children. I’d love to see guidance adjusted to maybe one shot for young boys here. This is just common sense IMO. 

Listen to GRhorn, the man who believes that COVID can't hurt children! The Dr John dude has "medical conservative" in his Twitter bio for chrissakes. At least take some pride in your disinformation craft. 

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44 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So 1 in 100 (I’ll even give you 1 in 1000 or o.1%) chance of death from covid is long odds so no reason to get vaccine, 

but 1 in 3800 risk of myocarditis is reason not to get vaccine.  And that’s just getting myocarditis, not dying from it. 

Who has 1 in 100 chance of death from covid?

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9 hours ago, maninblack said:

Maybe I'm misreading your post but you want to stick your non at risk 5-11 year old?

It's going to be approved in a couple months anyway. Seems like any competent doc could do 1/3 of an adult dose- exactly what they do in trials. Moreover, what is the risk of myocarditis from getting covid? For just the flu it's > 1%. 

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Paper published by UC-Davis says that for boys ages 12-15, the risk of myocarditis after second dose of vaccine is 3.7-6.1 times higher than the risk of being hospitalized from covid. It seems that boys of that age group have the highest rate of myocarditis.

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6 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Paper published by UC-Davis says that for boys ages 12-15, the risk of myocarditis after second dose of vaccine is 3.7-6.1 times higher than the risk of being hospitalized from covid. It seems that boys of that age group have the highest rate of myocarditis.

Ya know, it's helpful to the discussion to link your sources when citing them, rather than an uncited paraphrase you read on Facebook. 

https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/heart-inflammation-covid-19-and-the-rare-side-effects-of-the-vaccine/2021/09

People are concerned about heart inflammation linked to the vaccine. What can you tell them?

Rare heart inflammation cases (around one in 6000) were reported in teenagers after their COVID-19 vaccination. These cases have been mild and self-resolving. However, the chance of developing severe illness and death after a COVID-19 infection is much higher (2-10%). There is a higher risk of myocarditis from COVID itself than there is from the vaccine.

At this time, most hospitalization - particularly to critical care - and deaths are related to unvaccinated groups. So, I tell my patients to get vaccinated.

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5 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Paper published by UC-Davis says that for boys ages 12-15, the risk of myocarditis after second dose of vaccine is 3.7-6.1 times higher than the risk of being hospitalized from covid. It seems that boys of that age group have the highest rate of myocarditis.

Do you have a point here?  If you’re saying “I’m not vaxxing my 14 year old because I think the risk of myocarditis effects is higher than the risk of the effects COVID” then just say that.

Using single studies or research papers to make some point is where we are with this thing (still), but it’s all still mostly guesswork. Whatever your stance on kids and COVID.

This thread has turned into a fucking beating.

 

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1 hour ago, SizzleChest said:

Do you have a point here?  If you’re saying “I’m not vaxxing my 14 year old because I think the risk of myocarditis effects is higher than the risk of the effects COVID” then just say that.

Using single studies or research papers to make some point is where we are with this thing (still), but it’s all still mostly guesswork. Whatever your stance on kids and COVID.

This thread has turned into a fucking beating.

Don’t read the thread if it bothers you. I do not have a point.

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7 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Don’t read the thread if it bothers you. I do not have a point.

The thread is interesting to read thanks to posts from the likes of Dontshootrude, Anastasis, Huckleberry amongst others, but when the Facebook disinformation starts getting regurgitated here again, it veers back into shitposting.

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5 hours ago, XYZ said:

Paper published by UC-Davis says that for boys ages 12-15, the risk of myocarditis after second dose of vaccine is 3.7-6.1 times higher than the risk of being hospitalized from covid. It seems that boys of that age group have the highest rate of myocarditis.

Not really an adequate comparison. What is the risk of myocarditis from Covid in that group? The vast majority of people adult or children who get myocarditis from the vaccine or from Covid do not have it bad enough to require hospitalization.

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On 9/10/2021 at 9:54 PM, Satoshi said:

Not sure if serious but zero risk is false. There’s a couple recent studies/surveys that show risk of myocarditis in boys specifically is higher than risk of same kids getting hospitalized with Covid. 
 

As they say these are estimates, but there’s multiple coming in now at higher numbers so less likely that they’re that far off. Also add that the Uk did not approve vaccines in 12-15 year olds and it’s safe to say that the science is not settled on this. Certainly not zero risk, especially if you’re giving adult doses to small children. I’d love to see guidance adjusted to maybe one shot for young boys here. This is just common sense IMO. 

You get paid to post shit that ultimately kills people for money. And not that much either. Maybe enough to pay the rent in your shithole apartment. Why should anyone listen to one god damn thing you say? 

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10 hours ago, hookemATL said:

He’s worse than a Russian troll. He’s a…chiropractor!!!

Scared Saturday Night Live GIF by HULU

A kid who I played basketball with in high school had a chiropractor father.  We were at a tournament in New Orleans and I sprained my ankle pretty badly when I landed on someone’s foot going after a rebound.  Everyone in the gym saw it happen and knew exactly what was wrong.  Got back to the hotel and made an ice bath in the hotel trash can.  A few minutes later chiropractor knocks on the door.  Roommate let’s him in and he spends the next 15 minutes trying to convince me that my problem is not a sprained ankle, but rather a problem with my sciatic nerve.

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1 hour ago, conVINCEd said:

A kid who I played basketball with in high school had a chiropractor father.  We were at a tournament in New Orleans and I sprained my ankle pretty badly when I landed on someone’s foot going after a rebound.  Everyone in the gym saw it happen and knew exactly what was wrong.  Got back to the hotel and made an ice bath in the hotel trash can.  A few minutes later chiropractor knocks on the door.  Roommate let’s him in and he spends the next 15 minutes trying to convince me that my problem is not a sprained ankle, but rather a problem with my sciatic nerve.

He just wanted to play with your butt.

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An interesting MMWR was published Friday looking more specifically at the efficacy at the big three vaccines against hospitalization/severe disease against Delta and stratified the results by age.  TL;DR: Efficacy against severe disease for all three vaccines is holding up well for those under 75, but there is increasing evidence that those 75 and older will benefit from getting a booster.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e2.htm?s_cid=mm7037e2_w#T1_down

Edited by Dontshootrude
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Moderna flexing nuts on Pfizer.

 

COVID-19 hospitalizations by COVID-19 vaccine
BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech)
Unvaccinated (ref) 6,960 1,316 (18.9)
Fully vaccinated** 4,243 135 (3.2) 80 (73–85)
mRNA-1273 (Moderna)
Unvaccinated (ref) 6,960 1,316 (18.9)
Fully vaccinated** 2,975 70 (2.4) 95 (92–97)
Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen)
Unvaccinated (ref) 6,960 1,316 (18.9)
Fully vaccinated** 458 30 (6.5) 60 (31–77)
COVID-19 ED/UC encounters by COVID-19 vaccine
BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech)
Unvaccinated (ref) 10,872 3,145 (28.9)
Fully vaccinated** 3,946 314 (8.0) 77 (74–80)
mRNA-1273 (Moderna)
Unvaccinated (ref) 10,872 3,145 (28.9)
Fully vaccinated** 2,656 98 (3.7) 92 (89–93)
Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen)
Unvaccinated (ref) 10,872 3,145 (28.9)
Fully vaccinated** 757 100 (13.2) 65 (56–72)
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8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Moderna flexing nuts on Pfizer.

 

COVID-19 hospitalizations by COVID-19 vaccine
BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech)
Unvaccinated (ref) 6,960 1,316 (18.9)
Fully vaccinated** 4,243 135 (3.2) 80 (73–85)
mRNA-1273 (Moderna)
Unvaccinated (ref) 6,960 1,316 (18.9)
Fully vaccinated** 2,975 70 (2.4) 95 (92–97)
Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen)
Unvaccinated (ref) 6,960 1,316 (18.9)
Fully vaccinated** 458 30 (6.5) 60 (31–77)
COVID-19 ED/UC encounters by COVID-19 vaccine
BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech)
Unvaccinated (ref) 10,872 3,145 (28.9)
Fully vaccinated** 3,946 314 (8.0) 77 (74–80)
mRNA-1273 (Moderna)
Unvaccinated (ref) 10,872 3,145 (28.9)
Fully vaccinated** 2,656 98 (3.7) 92 (89–93)
Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen)
Unvaccinated (ref) 10,872 3,145 (28.9)
Fully vaccinated** 757 100 (13.2) 65 (56–72)

Yep.  Their decision to separate the shots by an extra week and tripling the amount of mRNA seems to be really paying off.  

That said, I got Pfizer in January and I'm still not seeking out a booster.  In my age group it is still working fine.

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The UK public health system has been a wealth of information throughout the pandemic.  I've been extremely impressed with them.


Today they published an in depth breakdown of the breakthrough cases that resulted in death among their population.

Main points:

Quote
  • In England, between 2 January and 2 July 2021, there were 51,281 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19); 640 occurred in people who were fully vaccinated, which includes people who had been infected before they were vaccinated.

  • The risk of death involving COVID-19 was consistently lower for people who had received two vaccinations compared to one or no vaccination, as shown by the weekly age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for deaths involving COVID-19.

  • "Breakthrough cases" are where infection has occurred in someone who is fully vaccinated, whereas we define a "breakthrough death" as a death involving COVID-19 that occurred in someone who had received both vaccine doses and had a first positive PCR test at least 14 days after the second vaccination dose; in total, there were 256 breakthrough deaths between 2 January and 2 July 2021.

  • 61.1% of breakthrough deaths occurred in males, compared to 52.2% and 48.5% for other COVID-19 deaths and for non-COVID-19 deaths respectively; the median age of breakthrough deaths was 84, compared to 82 for other COVID-19 deaths and for non-COVID-19 deaths.

  • 13.1% of breakthrough deaths occurred in people who were identified as likely to be immunocompromised from hospital episodes or causes of death, compared to 5.4% for other COVID-19 deaths.

Table 1 is really interesting, and shows how important the second shot is.

Quote
Table 1: There were 640 deaths involving COVID-19 of people who had received both vaccination doses
Count of deaths involving COVID-19 and percentage of all deaths by vaccination status, England, deaths occurring between 2 January and 2 July 2021
Vaccination status Deaths involving
COVID-19
Non-COVID-19
deaths
Percent of
all deaths
All deaths regardless of vaccination status 51,281 214,701 19.3
Unvaccinated  38,964 65,170 37.4
Deaths within 21 days of first dose 4,388 14,265 23.5
Deaths 21 days or more after first dose  7,289 66,533 9.9
Deaths within 21 days of second dose 182 11,470 1.6
Deaths 21 days or more after second dose  458 57,263 0.8

Source: Office for National Statistics – National Immunisation Management Service, NHS Test and Trace

Other interesting things to note:

The fully vaccinated COVID deaths have a median age two years older than the unvaccinated (84 vs 82) and looking at the numbers compared to the unvaccinated, we are talking about very few people relative to the overall population.  98.8% of their COVID deaths are either unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated. It is remarkable how well the vaccines are working.    

Quote

 

Table 3: 61.1% of breakthrough deaths occurred in males, which is higher than for other deaths involving COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths
Number and percentage of deaths occurring by various characteristics for breakthrough deaths, other deaths involving COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths, England, deaths occurring between 2 January and 2 July 2021
  Breakthrough
deaths
Other deaths
involving COVID-19
Non COVID-19
deaths
Median age 84 82  82 
Male 154 (61.1%)  22,819 (52.2%)  89,498 (48.5%) 
Female 98 (38.9%)  20,885 (47.8%)  94,901 (51.5%) 
Clinically extremely
vulnerable
193 (76.6%)  32,567 (74.5%)  128,454 (69.7%) 
Not clinically
extremely vulnerable
59 (23.4%)  11,137 (25.5%)  55,945 (30.3%) 
Limited a lot by
long-term health
problem or disability
80 (31.7%)  12,152 (27.8%)  44,642 (24.2%) 
Limited a little by
long-term health
problem or disability
80 (31.7%)  12,604 (28.8%)  50,817 (27.6%) 
Not limited by
long-term health
problem or disability
92 (36.5%)  18,948 (43.4%)  88,940 (48.2%) 
Immunocompromised 33 (13.1%)  2,360 (5.4%)  18,049 (9.8%) 
Not
immunocompromised
219 (86.9%)  41,344 (94.6%)  166,350 (90.2%) 

Source: Office for National Statistics – Public Health Data Asset, National Immunisation Management Service, NHS Test and Trace

 

Edited by Dontshootrude
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37 minutes ago, Dontshootrude said:

The fully vaccinated COVID deaths have a median age two years older than the unvaccinated (84 vs 82) and looking at the numbers compared to the unvaccinated, we are talking about very few people relative to the overall population.  98.8% of their COVID deaths are either unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated. It is remarkable how well the vaccines are working. 

Let's look at that in a bigger, albeit hypothetical picture.  1.2% of the deaths are of the vaccinated.  So, let's imagine a world where everyone is vaccinated, and we see that same rate -- deaths equal to 1.2% of COVID deaths happen.

We've had 600,000 deaths (and that's happened in a year and a half, but let's just say it happened in one year).  If everyone had been vaccinated at the beginning of the pandemic, if we'd suffered 1.2% of those deaths, we'd have around 7,200 deaths.  That's a fraction of the flu deaths in a typical year.

If you told us that there's a viral disease that CAN kill people, but with a universally administered vaccine, we expect to see fewer than 10,000 deaths per year, we'd rightly say "well, let's get everyone vaccinated and keep on trucking."

Get.  Fucking.  Vaccinated.

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At this point in time insisting that the anti-vaxxers get vaccinated is counterproductive. They will only dig their heels in deeper against the vaccine when told to get the vaccine.

I think a different approach should be taken. A campaign should be made that the unvaccinated should not be allowed to ever receive the vaccine. If certain people promote this message then the psychology at play will force the unvaccinated to do the opposite of the messengers.

Call it operation Bugs Bunny.

d945v38-2d723ce7-e861-4af3-a654-282c0f6f

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8 minutes ago, F250 said:

At this point in time insisting that the anti-vaxxers get vaccinated is counterproductive. They will only dig their heels in deeper against the vaccine when told to get the vaccine.

I think a different approach should be taken. A campaign should be made that the unvaccinated should not be allowed to ever receive the vaccine. If certain people promote this message then the psychology at play will force the unvaccinated to do the opposite of the messengers.

Call it operation Bugs Bunny.

d945v38-2d723ce7-e861-4af3-a654-282c0f6f

It can't ever be done but it would absolutely work. All that has to happen is an announcement that due to low vaccination rates causing doses to spoil or go unused that vaccines will now be shipped only to areas with higher vaccination rates. Those in low vaccination rate areas will be unable to receive vaccines. Then seed one conspiracy theory in the right spot and suddenly they'd be screaming to get their God-given right to the vaccine back.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Let's look at that in a bigger, albeit hypothetical picture.  1.2% of the deaths are of the vaccinated.  So, let's imagine a world where everyone is vaccinated, and we see that same rate -- deaths equal to 1.2% of COVID deaths happen.

We've had 600,000 deaths (and that's happened in a year and a half, but let's just say it happened in one year).  If everyone had been vaccinated at the beginning of the pandemic, if we'd suffered 1.2% of those deaths, we'd have around 7,200 deaths.  That's a fraction of the flu deaths in a typical year.

If you told us that there's a viral disease that CAN kill people, but with a universally administered vaccine, we expect to see fewer than 10,000 deaths per year, we'd rightly say "well, let's get everyone vaccinated and keep on trucking."

Get.  Fucking.  Vaccinated.

this is what happens when lawyers try to math

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Just now, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

this is what happens when lawyers try to math

Well, one of the reasons I went to law school WAS to avoid math.....but how am I off the mark?  Yes, obviously I am extrapolating into a hypothetical that didn't actually happen.

But here's the takeaway on what actually IS happening -- 1.2% of the deaths are of fully vaccinated people.  That means that for the vaccinated, 98.8% of the deaths/risk of death isn't in play for them.  Doesn't that mean that, if you are vaccinated, dying of COVID is very, very low-risk proposition?  Like, many times lower than dying of the flu?

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, one of the reasons I went to law school WAS to avoid math.....but how am I off the mark? Doesn't that mean that, if you are vaccinated, dying of COVID is very, very low-risk proposition?  Like, many times lower than dying of the flu?

yes

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 

We've had 600,000 deaths (and that's happened in a year and a half, but let's just say it happened in one year).  If everyone had been vaccinated at the beginning of the pandemic, if we'd suffered 1.2% of those deaths, we'd have around 7,200 deaths. 

no.

 

you're missing the entire calculus of percentage of the population is vaccinated.  (by silly example) let's say there were 120 vaccinated people in the whole country. let's say there were 10000 dead. If you told me 1.2% of the dead were vaccinated, i'd say HOLY FUCK STAY AWAY FROM THE VACCINE

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Just now, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

 

 

you're missing the entire calculus of percentage of the population is vaccinated.  (by silly example) let's say there were 120 vaccinated people in the whole country. let's say there were 10000 dead. If you told me 1.2% of the dead were vaccinated, i'd say HOLY FUCK STAY AWAY FROM THE VACCINE

Well, umm...that's not my hypothetical/extrapolation.

In the UK, 1.2% of their COVID dead since vaccines rolled out are vaccinated people.  So, what I'm saying is that 1) if we had the vaccine all along, and 2) if everyone was vaccinated, we'd see deaths at that same percentage.  That is, among the entire population, we would not see 600,000 deaths.  We'd see 7,200 deaths.  

Yes, I know the "every single person vaccinated" hypothetical isn't possible.  I also don't discount for lower transmission because of vaccines, etc.  One variable pushes the infection rate up, the other pushes it down.  The point isn't that it would be exactly 7,200 -- the point is that it would be a similarly very small number.

If we can get every eligible person vaccinated, including schoolkids, in the next 6-12 months, then we can be at the goal we should have set: making COVID no more serious a public health problem than the flu.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

In the UK, 1.2% of their COVID dead since vaccines rolled out are vaccinated people.  So, what I'm saying is that 1) if we had the vaccine all along, and 2) if everyone was vaccinated, we'd see deaths at that same percentage.  That is, among the entire population, we would not see 600,000 deaths.  We'd see 7,200 deaths.  

yeah, i saw when you typed that the first time.  1.2% is not some vaccine efficacy rate. do you not understand that?  it isn't a "you only had a 1.2% chance of dying if you were vaccinated but you weren't so you died anyway stat" which is something you seem to believe.  you can't multiply 1.2% times 600000.

 

it is the ratio of deaths of vaxxed to not.  how many people are vaccinated in UK?  how many are not?  do you not understand how those figures appear in that 1.2% rate?  that's why i drew out the extreme example.  math lends itself to testing on the extremes because algebra is algebra whether it is the fat of the bell curve or not.  

 

what if i told you 56% of covid deaths are men, 44 are women.  that's kind of interesting.  

what if i told you less than 1% of covid deaths are zoroastrians.  wow, should we all convert?!  wait.  no.  maybe that number is influenced by something other than Mazdayasna's natural production of antibodies, i'd bet.

for whatever reason your built in understanding of population distributions above isn't making its way into your brain about vaccination.

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Mathematically speaking, what he's saying is...

1.2% = vaccinated deaths / total deaths

Vaccinated deaths = (1 - VE) * number vaccinated people infected (VE being vaccine efficacy w.r.t. mortality) 

Number vaccinated people = vaccination rate times population

Number vaccinated people infected = vaccination rate times population times transmission rate

and so on and so forth

You can't say that we would have had 1.2% as many deaths as we've actually had if everyone had been vaccinated from the beginning. That 1.2% is highly dependent on actual vaccination rates among other variables, so you can't just apply it to a 100% vaccination rate scenario.

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Mathematically speaking, what he's saying is...

1.2% = vaccinated deaths / total deaths

Vaccinated deaths = (1 - VE) * number vaccinated people infected (VE being vaccine efficacy w.r.t. mortality) 

Number vaccinated people = vaccination rate times population

Number vaccinated people infected = vaccination rate times population times transmission rate

and so on and so forth

You can't say that we would have had 1.2% as many deaths as we've actually had if everyone had been vaccinated from the beginning. That 1.2% is highly dependent on actual vaccination rates among other variables, so you can't just apply it to a 100% vaccination rate scenario.

Yes.  That's what I was trying to say, and yes, it's a pie-in-the-sky hypothetical because it discounts all other variables (like transmission if we had 100% vaccination, etc.).

Without vaccines, we have had 600,000 deaths.  At the distribution the UK has shown, 98.8% of those are of unvaccinated/not fully vaccinated.  Only 1.2% are fully vaccinated.  All I did was an isolated (so, lots of false assumptions) linear (likewise) extrapolation of that data.

It doesn't stand for the proposition that 1.2% of the total population would have died.  Rather, it assumes the same rate of infection/transmission, but overlaying ONLY the vaccinated deaths on top of that.  600,000 people caught "bad enough to kill you" COVID.  Of those who died, only 1.2% were vaccinated.  Yes, there are a shitload of other variables that go into that (the 1.2% only comes from the vaccinated subset of the population, transmissibility likely would have been much lower, etc. etc.), all kinds of factors in the "what if."

But it sure looks like the ultimate conclusion is "if everyone is vaccinated, we're probably looking at deaths in the low 5 figures, not the high 6 figures."

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