Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

From today: 

“Fed Chair Jerome Powell said President Donald Trump's tariffs have mainly appeared to be covered by importing companies, meaning consumers haven't seen major price increases tied to the levies yet.

"To the consumer, the passthrough has been pretty small," Powell said. "It's been ... slower and smaller than we thought."

To be sure, Powell noted that companies have said they eventually plan to pass more of the cost increases onto shoppers, which can result in higher price tags.”

With the discontent between him and Trump, there’s no telling how much truth or justification for past action (inaction) there was in this this statement, but it does confirm one side of this argument so far. 

Pass through costs are just starting.  Here is just one example: coffee. 

https://dailycoffeenews.com/2025/09/15/u-s-coffee-prices-soar-at-the-supermarket/

why has it taken awhile? Mainly, Trump has been starting and stopping tariffs for months. Then, companies tried to do a temporary coverage of the tariffs hoping they would stop. Finally, it takes awhile to burn thru inventory.  Declaring victory over tariff inflation is very premature.  

However, declining demand from a worsening economy can also mute inflation.  Not the right way, but a way  

 

Edited by Dbeasy
Posted
51 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Pass through costs are just starting.  Here is just one example: coffee. 

https://dailycoffeenews.com/2025/09/15/u-s-coffee-prices-soar-at-the-supermarket/

why has it taken awhile? Mainly, Trump has been starting and stopping tariffs for months. Then, companies tried to do a temporary coverage of the tariffs hoping they would stop. Finally, it takes awhile to burn thru inventory.  Declaring victory over tariff inflation is very premature.  

However, declining demand from a worsening economy can also mute inflation.  Not the right way, but a way  

 

I have no doubt companies will eventually want to do make-up hikes. The market will determine if they are able to.

Coffee may not be the best example:

“Prices for coffee have soared, fueled largely by volatile weather that's reduced crop harvests among major growers like Brazil and Vietnam, according to analysts.”

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/09/04/why-coffee-prices-are-so-high-and-where-theyre-headed-next.html
 

Only political projectionists are declaring any victories.

Posted
On 3/6/2025 at 3:41 PM, 52-80 said:

I bragged on the Intel thread about some equity + options positions that were absolutely stonking. And now they're just a hair above profitable. (Gonna grab more)

Intel stonking again.  +30% premarket to $33 on news of NVDA taking a mere $5B stake (4%) at ~$23/sh valuation   🤠🎂

Posted
5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Intel stonking again.  +30% premarket to $33 on news of NVDA taking a mere $5B stake (4%) at ~$23/sh valuation   🤠🎂

It's nice when Dear Leader takes a stake and chooses winners and losers, right? Although I could have sworn you were against that idea just recently

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 2
  • Fuck You 1
  • Rage+1 1
Posted
10 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

I have no doubt companies will eventually want to do make-up hikes. The market will determine if they are able to.

Coffee may not be the best example:

“Prices for coffee have soared, fueled largely by volatile weather that's reduced crop harvests among major growers like Brazil and Vietnam, according to analysts.”

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/09/04/why-coffee-prices-are-so-high-and-where-theyre-headed-next.html
 

Only political projectionists are declaring any victories.

he didnt even read his own article

Quote

While the tariffs have squeezed U.S. green coffee importers, they’ve also arrived on the back of an extended period of nominally high prices on the coffee commodities markets,

 

Posted
7 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's nice when Dear Leader takes a stake and chooses winners and losers, right? Although I could have sworn you were against that idea just recently

want some whaaburgers to go with your french cries?

Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Oh no, don't report me to your komissar and get me fired from my job! Lotta that going round these days.

this victim costume looks great on you.  keep it up!

Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

this victim costume looks great on you.  keep it up!

Lulz you being a hypocritical liar doesn't victimize me, but I hope you enjoy your State Capitalism. You sure seemed to hate it recently, just trying to understand why it's different now.

Edited by Captainant
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 2
  • Fuck You 1
Posted
14 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Pass through costs are just starting.  Here is just one example: coffee. 

https://dailycoffeenews.com/2025/09/15/u-s-coffee-prices-soar-at-the-supermarket/

why has it taken awhile? Mainly, Trump has been starting and stopping tariffs for months. Then, companies tried to do a temporary coverage of the tariffs hoping they would stop. Finally, it takes awhile to burn thru inventory.  Declaring victory over tariff inflation is very premature.  

However, declining demand from a worsening economy can also mute inflation.  Not the right way, but a way  

 

Just in time for Christmas shopping.

Posted

My VUG vs. SPY (life in an oligarchy) theory continues to hold water.  So much wealth is piled at the very very top.  "I wish I woulda" talk is the lamest in stocks, but I left a lot on the table by only moving about 10% of my SPY to VUG.  If I had the courage of my convictions I would have done 50%.

 

image.png.aa71a853eb8161ffc8875da190b454ec.png

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
8 minutes ago, bluto said:

Tech giants among other industries gonna shrug off the hb1 kings edict or is this what kicks off the bubble burst 

Well the H1B Proclamation from the King says that he and he alone may grant exemptions, so it's a "kiss the ring" kind of move imo

  • Like 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
It looks like TACO but it’s really a grift. 

Bingo. Set up an arbitrary expensive gate that you alone control. Provide for an entirely discretionary “exemption” mechanism. Walla, another nice “legal” bribery pipeline.
All that Techbro Inc. needs to do is buy some Trumpcoin, or “invest” $100 million in some other Trump venture, and not only are their H1B apps exempted, but their competitors’ are blocked.
These plays have all been run before, there’s no secret.
Posted
52 minutes ago, bluto said:

Tech giants among other industries gonna shrug off the hb1 kings edict or is this what kicks off the bubble burst 

This won't impact shit.

Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


Bingo. Set up an arbitrary expensive gate that you alone control. Provide for an entirely discretionary “exemption” mechanism. Walla, another nice “legal” bribery pipeline.
All that Techbro Inc. needs to do is buy some Trumpcoin, or “invest” $100 million in some other Trump venture, and not only are their H1B apps exempted, but their competitors’ are blocked.
These plays have all been run before, there’s no secret.

Did Putin write him a book or something?

Posted
8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Bingo. Set up an arbitrary expensive gate that you alone control. Provide for an entirely discretionary “exemption” mechanism. Walla, another nice “legal” bribery pipeline.

**voila

  • Fuck You 1
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Did Putin write him a book or something?

It was a book by his bedside...  According to his ex-wife. Not that Putin doesn't enjoy the same reading, to be certain. 

Times like these I wish so many of my fellow citizens actually knew the the political origins of the changes in the power dynamics and use of demonization, leading into WWII. The use of the same tools, disinformation, citizen mobs, demonization of minorities, attacking the intellectuals, suppression of free speech and asking neighbors to report on neighbors. Lots of boxes being checked from my count.  Using Christianity as the rallying point for all these tools, is the lynchpin.

And these actions will affect the market over time.

Can anyone tell me what is going to be good for the market long term, if these trends continue?  

---------------

We are now entering the "boil the frog" part of Trumps economic policies.  Companies with diverse product lines are absorbing tariffs by raising prices across the board, rather than on the imported products where the increases are actually being felt.  Because if they raise the prices only on the prices where the costs have increased, that would identify to the American consumer that tariffs do specifically raise consumer prices on specific goods. And that would be very bad... politically.  What is better is to raise all prices a little bit, and for the retailer. Increasing prices on American made goods, to offset imported  goods price increases. Increase price and profit margin on US made goods, to protect the sales of foreign made goods with import taxes on them.  Now rather than having inflation limited to identifiable products the American consumer can specifically avoid. Instead the American consumer sees all costs going up at the grocery store.  All to try and prevent political (not business) fallout of actually having the true costs of tariffs demonstrated to the consumer.  When the expense is spread to all skus you cannot avoid it by, buying American. So FU consumer, let's create inflation that is unavoidable, slower and more sustained.

On the Employment side of the equation you have the same boil the frog scenario.  Mainly because our statistical modeling for job creation and unemployment depend on accuracy.  And we have not had contractions in the workforce as a whole in the past.  Trump's immigration policies have made this part of the equation very, very difficult to calculate and thus the information may be inaccurate until after multiple backwards looking revisions.  It's hard to have an accurate percentage when your know the denominator you are using is likely inaccurate. Despite you best efforts for accuracy.

On the bright side... Looks like fucking up our children via tik-tok is going to finally close in a big beautiful deal.  Directly in opposition to laws passed by congress.

 

 

 

 

Edited by horn4life

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...