Final 5 games - What does your bitchass say?

[ElChupacabra 256]

4-1

Defense isn't looking amazing but they're also not getting gashed for huge plays multiple times per game either. That's improvement from last year. I won't claim to understand any of PK's system but, in general, I think he's just trying to tread water and keep everything in front of him at this point. Last year he drowned.

Offense looked meh in this game but has shown flashes of greatness. If they can operate somewhere in the middle with consistency they can score enough points to beat anyone in the conference. 

Special teams has shown improvement overall. It appears that the glaring issues that previous teams have exposed have been addressed and hopefully that will continue over the course of the season. 

It wasn't pretty but a win is a win and, in college football, that's a reason to celebrate. Especially if you're a Longhorn fan. The past decade has been rough. Some bright spots here and there but never any really obvious improvement from one season to the next except maybe the Sam years. Even those years were trying with an abundance of injuries, attrition, players not being developed, and cancers in the locker room.

Overall, I'm gruntled. We've won games this season that previous teams would've lost. Lose big, lose small, win small, win big. We're on step three, bitches. We probably don't see step four this season but another year of the system, another year of growth and development for the current players, and another batch of young guys coming in shortly and we're on our way. 

 

[Surly Bevo 24249]

I voted 4-1 because we have so many freshmen in critical positions.
I think OSU will be tough, but I like that we just got a hangover type performance out of the way. OSU will either be deflated or really pissed off given the way they lost. We can score on them. Tossup IMO.
KSU will be a challenge at home, and their backfield is dangerous. But their schedule does them no favors.  They have the top three teams in the conference in consecutive weeks. We will be coming off a bye week.
TCU is our best remaining opponent, but we play hard at home. This game has conference title inplications, and their defense is vunerable. I also think Gary Patterson has had this one in his mental rolodex. We do just enough.
Weird shit always happens to us @ KU and they are formidable. We will be coming off what will most likely be an intense home game against TCU. This is our most likely loss cause they can sling it and our secondary is suspect.
BU always gives us fits. They are fundamentally sound on defense, and their interior DL will present a problem. But we get them at home after a short weekthey face TCU. I can see then being a little flat.

We should expect everybody’s best shot. We’re Texas….teams don’t do “hangovers” against us.

[RockyMountainHighHorn 886]

I laughed at the “playoff dreams are done with bama losing”. Have you seen other big teams lose also? Yeah been happening a lot. Who the hell can project the playoff now. Stick to the topic. We had the same wins last year as we do now, let’s shoot for the moon but the moon isn’t playoffs. Moon is ny6 bowl and top 5 class and not losing a ton in the off-season. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Just now, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

I laughed at the “playoff dreams are done with bama losing”. Have you seen other big teams lose also? Yeah been happening a lot. Who the hell can project the playoff now. Stick to the topic. We had the same wins last year as we do now, let’s shoot for the moon but the moon isn’t playoffs. Moon is ny6 bowl and top 5 class and not losing a ton in the off-season. 

Wait was somebody talking about us and the playoffs?

[bigcigar 1154]

51 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

I think 3-2 is the floor and the expected result.

4-1 is reaching but certainly within teams potential

5-0 is improbable due to staff referenced above, but wouldn’t be as surprising as 2018 given team’s attitude. If we go 5-0, it will be from our players willing it to occur and not overcoming some situational disadvantages.

Said another way, I believe in the team but don’t think they’ll be put in a position to win out.

[horngrad03 1101]

3 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

We should expect everybody’s best shot. We’re Texas….teams don’t do “hangovers” against us.

I just don't agree with that. Of course teams find another gear against us. But hatred only takes you so far in a league this deep.

[utexas8 1433]

3-2. I think they tech loss really screwed us. A game we shouldn’t have loss. I’m in a prove it mode. After wondering the dessert. Although, they did prove to me yesterday so there’s that. I don’t know how the defense can hold up against TCU and Okie lite.

[Duane Moore 5236]

1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

Disagree. 8-4 with a bowl game is a step up from Charlie Strong but a perfectly normal late Mack or Tom Herman season. Not a step up at all. If we don't make the conference title game, it is not a step up. It is more of the same.

It’s a step up from Sark’s disastrous first year on the field and holds the recruiting class together. It prevents programs from negatively recruiting us about Sark’s job security and sends us into next year with maturing 4-5 star talent all over the offense that will make us favorites in every game except Alabama. I’d like to do better than 8-4, but next year is when I am really expecting the program elevation we’ve been waiting for and 8-4 this year will help us bridge that gap. 

Edited October 16, 2022 by Duane Moore

[Valmy77 12519]

3 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

It’s a step up from Sark’s disastrous first year on the field and holds the recruiting class together. It prevents programs from negatively recruiting us about Sark’s job security and sends us into next year with maturing 4-5 star talent all over the offense that will make us favorites in every game except Alabama. I’d like to do better than 8-4, but next year is when I am really expecting the program elevation we’ve been waiting for and 8-4 this year will help us bridge that gap. 

I guess that's true. It would certainly help Sark and his job security.

But the statement was in the context of the last decade not just Sark's tenure. In that context it isn't.

[closetojumping 61996]

I struggled with this. I pondered 0-5 in homage to the Seven Loss Steve moniker. I gave 2-3 some thought for Seven Win Steve being who he is. I wanted to pick 5-0 as a fan of the program with hope given all of the positive signs of development. I settled on 4-1 because I don’t have faith in Sarkisian and Kwiatkowski to win 3 games on the road. 

[mdleast 8016]

my bitchass says that it is cautiously optimistic...but when pressed my bitchass' prediction was 3-2 over that stretch

[Duane Moore 5236]

6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I struggled with this. I pondered 0-5 in homage to the Seven Loss Steve moniker. I gave 2-3 some thought for Seven Win Steve being who he is. I wanted to pick 5-0 as a fan of the program with hope given all of the positive signs of development. I settled on 4-1 because I don’t have faith in Sarkisian and Kwiatkowski to win 3 games on the road. 

Look at you, Mr. Sunshine!

[Horns RD Standard 53]

I realize the question is about the last 5 Big XII games but I’m really hopeful we have 6 remaining this season. And getting this one this week will go a long way in making that happen. I dont see anyone running the table in conference. You just gotta get gritty W’s each week (no matter how they look stylistically)


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[ztejas 42744]

4 minutes ago, Horns RD Standard said:

I realize the question is about the last 5 Big XII games but I’m really hopeful we have 6 remaining this season. And getting this one this week will go a long way in making that happen. I dont see anyone running the table in conference. You just gotta get gritty W’s each week (no matter how they look stylistically)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep. There will almost assuredly be a 2 loss team in the CCG. 

[taybo20 2804]

My bitchass says HOOK’EM!

[RockyMountainHighHorn 886]

58 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Wait was somebody talking about us and the playoffs?

Was like 15 posts in 

[Ghost of Stevie Ray 1558]

3-2. W: Kstate, Kansas Baylor. L: Ok St, TCU.  I don’t think we’re a come back from 14 down type of team yet and I believe OSU and TCU both have the ability to jump out to early leads on us and defense will get tired out by 4th quarter.   
 

Unfortunately that would likely mean we don’t make the B12 Championship. 

[bborange 9828]

I put 10-2 on the full season poll, so I went with 5-0 to end the season.  

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

42 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I struggled with this. I pondered 0-5 in homage to the Seven Loss Steve moniker. I gave 2-3 some thought for Seven Win Steve being who he is. I wanted to pick 5-0 as a fan of the program with hope given all of the positive signs of development. I settled on 4-1 because I don’t have faith in Sarkisian and Kwiatkowski to win 3 games on the road. 

The amazing thing is literally all of that is on the table right now after 7 games played. Literally who fucking knows right now. 

[F250 28380]

The team is still cycling between good and regarded. With this kind of inconsistency it is likely they will lose a couple more games.

8-4 will be an improvement.

[gmr548 16254]

1 hour ago, bigcigar said:

Said another way, I believe in the team but don’t think they’ll be put in a position to win out.

Yeah, this is a good, concise way to put it.

[ztejas 42744]

34 minutes ago, F250 said:

The team is still cycling between good and regarded. With this kind of inconsistency it is likely they will lose a couple more games.

8-4 will be an improvement.

I'm not sure about regarded. We just played like shit and won. We blew the Tech game but still could have or should have won that one in Lubbock with our backup QB. 

I'm less worried about us not showing up and more worried about the quality of some of the teams on our remaining schedule. 

[Deej 76081]

I voted 4-1. Ewers has played less than 4 games and hopefully learned something yesterday. Hoping the offense can improve week to week, and the defense can learn how to get off the field a couple more drives a game. We're flawed, but so is everyone else on the schedule. 

If it's 2-3 or worse, Immamac will need to pull the plug on this board until next Fall.

[SKA the boss 729]

It seems like some people have moved their expectation bars now that they have seen with their own eyes what a generational talent at qb can do for a program, but we still have the same problems we had when the season started: weaknesses in the secondary, no edge rush, LBs who don't fit this system, and a young, albeit improving O-line. 8-4 with the culture change is a really good improvement over last year's debacle considering we are not "there" at lots of positions yet. It's possible we can win more, but less would be a huge let down at this point. 

[ztejas 42744]

4 minutes ago, Deej said:

If it's 2-3 or worse, Immamac will need to pull the plug on this board until next Fall.

On the bright side y'all wouldn't have to put up with ztejas as I'd likely off myself. 

[Deej 76081]

Now I'm torn. 😆 

[Surly Bevo 24249]

7 minutes ago, ztejas said:

On the bright side y'all wouldn't have to put up with ztejas as I'd likely off myself. 

[Hook1997 5231]

One loss and playing in and winning the Big 12 Champions and winning it is my hope.  That would mean a Sugarbowl vs Tennessee or a rematch with Bama possibly.  

[jettrink 42]

8 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Somebody let Frankenstein's monster out his cage?  JFC ugly

[jettrink 42]

It all depends on how much influence Patterson has on limp dick pk.

[Huckleberry 32144]

So my system has it 3.66 expected wins in the last 5. I voted for 4-1 because I'm a fan, but my gut says 3-2 is more likely. My math says:

5-0: 20.7%
4-1: 38.9%
3-2: 28.5%
2-3: 10.1%
1-4: 1.7%
0-5: 0.1%

The annoying part of sports message boards is that this means that if our team plays at a Top 10 level (which is where my system has us rated) we could pretty easily go 3-2 to finish 8-4 and people will be pissed off. Because the Big 12 is fucking good this season. Now to my eyeballs we're not yet a top 10 team so that's why I think 3-2 is the most likely, I'm just saying it's going to be annoying when people think that a 3-2 finish means we played like shit at the end of the season. Meanwhile, if we played like the 15th-20th best team in the country in every single game the rest of the season we would probably go 3-2.

[SilasCoade 2620]

9 hours ago, Horn Dogg said:

5-0 motherfucker!

Este

[Hook1997 5231]

52 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

One loss and playing in and winning the Big 12 Champions and winning it is my hope.  That would mean a Sugarbowl vs Tennessee or a rematch with Bama possibly.  

When you post while doing something else then read it later…. But yea 4-1 or maybe 5-0 and playing in the Big 12 Championships should be the expectation and doable. Defense should learn from this game and improve unlike last year.  Zone coverage on third and long definitely needs to go. 

[T-dog 202]

36 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

So my system has it 3.66 expected wins in the last 5. I voted for 4-1 because I'm a fan, but my gut says 3-2 is more likely. My math says:

5-0: 20.7%
4-1: 38.9%
3-2: 28.5%
2-3: 10.1%
1-4: 1.7%
0-5: 0.1%

The annoying part of sports message boards is that this means that if our team plays at a Top 10 level (which is where my system has us rated) we could pretty easily go 3-2 to finish 8-4 and people will be pissed off. Because the Big 12 is fucking good this season. Now to my eyeballs we're not yet a top 10 team so that's why I think 3-2 is the most likely, I'm just saying it's going to be annoying when people think that a 3-2 finish means we played like shit at the end of the season. Meanwhile, if we played like the 15th-20th best team in the country in every single game the rest of the season we would probably go 3-2.

This seems pretty accurate.

Think 3-2 and 4-1 are the most likely outcomes, personally voted for 4-1. Think we most likely drop the Okie Lite game but who knows… 

We can definitely win out if we stay healthy - the team has enough talent, OLine is maturing by the week, and while everyone (me included) likes to shit on the defense, we have given up less than 20 pts on average which I would have gladly taken at the beginning of the year. 

Getting to Arlington and winning the B12 would give the program some nice additional momentum heading into the offseason, but we cannot afford to have any let down games for the rest of the schedule

[hornian 5153]

Show me a loss. 

[Chad 1728]

3-2 with close losses @ KSU and @ Okie St. Texas beats TCU, KU and clobbers the fuck out of Baylor to conclude the season 8-4. Texas wins a bowl game to finish 9-4, if it wasn't for that letdown game against Tech it would've been a 10-3 finish coming off of the nightmarish 2021 season.

[OU Sucks 8667]

9 hours ago, MirrOlure said:

We beat the best D in the conference with a B+ running game and C- (generous) passing game.

KSU is the only decent D we play, the rest are garbage on that side of the ball.

4-1 is our floor.

Counterpoint: The team with the best D in the conference also has the worst O in the conference.

[Crapinon 2238]

I drank the Kool-Aid/ trashcan punch at the beginning of the season and said 9-3, so I'm going to say 4-1 the rest of the year. But I would be glad to be wrong if it's 5-0.

 

[The Deuce 1094]

Well if this is the “revenge tour”, then that means we go 3-2, with wins and losses already predetermined before conference play even started.

Wins: @ Okstate, @ Kansas, Baylor

Losses: @ Kstate, TCU

The “revenge tour” makes 2021’s L’s a W & vice versa. 
 

Now that I’ve got that nonsense that means absolutely fuckall out of the way, I’ll get to my prediction…..

4-1 w/the loss coming @Kstate. That shouldn’t be our toughest of the 5, but I really don’t want to lose to those other 4 in this selection. 

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

Tough to win games against good teams if you can’t get off the field on 3rd and 4th downs. That stat line for the Cyclone QB on 3rd downs is the stuff of nightmares.

[Nivek 16643]

OSU is probably the best matchup for Texas of the three. Most erratic/turnover prone, least accurate QB, and a very bad pass defense. 

Except when they play us (and the refs overturn every turnover)

[Scheiss Meister 8300]

3 - 2 is the most optimism that I can drag up.  I think that 4 - 1 is possible, but I don't trust the defense/coaches to be consistent enough for that or 5 - 0.

I would be happy to be proven too pessimistic.

[KeysPhoneWallet 807]

We beat the best D in the conference with a B+ running game and C- (generous) passing game.

KSU is the only decent D we play, the rest are garbage on that side of the ball.

4-1 is our floor.

I think we’ll be somewhere between our floor of 0-5 and our ceiling of 5-0, not counting the big 12 championship game. If we’re gonna play the guessing game, I prefer the 5-0 scenario.

[ousux 5566]

After rewatching the Clones game sober..Bijan, Rojo, JWitt, K. Robinson, D-line and LB's were beast mode all day long.

If they can repeat those performances every Saturday there is no reason to not win out even if Ewers and others (DB's in particular) have a sub par day.

[TrashMaster G 17263]

3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

So my system has it 3.66 expected wins in the last 5. I voted for 4-1 because I'm a fan, but my gut says 3-2 is more likely. My math says:

5-0: 20.7%
4-1: 38.9%
3-2: 28.5%
2-3: 10.1%
1-4: 1.7%
0-5: 0.1%

The annoying part of sports message boards is that this means that if our team plays at a Top 10 level (which is where my system has us rated) we could pretty easily go 3-2 to finish 8-4 and people will be pissed off. Because the Big 12 is fucking good this season. Now to my eyeballs we're not yet a top 10 team so that's why I think 3-2 is the most likely, I'm just saying it's going to be annoying when people think that a 3-2 finish means we played like shit at the end of the season. Meanwhile, if we played like the 15th-20th best team in the country in every single game the rest of the season we would probably go 3-2.

What is your win likelihood on each game remaining?

[Valmy77 12519]

11 hours ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

I laughed at the “playoff dreams are done with bama losing”. Have you seen other big teams lose also? Yeah been happening a lot. Who the hell can project the playoff now. Stick to the topic. We had the same wins last year as we do now, let’s shoot for the moon but the moon isn’t playoffs. Moon is ny6 bowl and top 5 class and not losing a ton in the off-season. 

The moon is the Big 12 title. Some crazy 2007-esque stuff would have to happen to get a 11-2 Texas into the playoff. USC losing is a start but there is a ton more chaos that would have to happen and there are still a ton of undefeated teams out there much less 1 loss teams.

Once we lost to Tech the main goal left is the conference title. The Big 12 is not likely to get a playoff team this year so that is probably the only way we are getting to a NY6 Bowl anyway. So win the league or enjoy the Alamo Bowl (at best).

Edited October 17, 2022 by Valmy77

[UT_OB1 2193]

We’re going to have more than 5 games left. Please edit the poll to have a 7-0 option so I can pick and then quote this post all off season. 

[wood 10788]

My bitchass says 5-0.

[txduck87 972]

This playoff and NY6 talk is nuts. Are we trending higher? Yes.

Let’s fucking beat Kansas, tcu, and osu before we talk about cfp.

Have you seen our program over the last 13 years? Good grief. Just win games.

Love the enthusiasm but this old grad has seen this movie too many times over the last 13 (or 30) years. Jesus , let’s just beat Kansas.

CFP talk. LOL.

And to answer the OP question, 3-2.

Hook ‘em.

[Valmy77 12519]

4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

The annoying part of sports message boards is that this means that if our team plays at a Top 10 level (which is where my system has us rated) we could pretty easily go 3-2 to finish 8-4 and people will be pissed off.

I wouldn't be pissed off. 8-4 would be ok. It would be fine. It might even be a relief depending upon how we got there.

Just 9-3 would just be such a huge step forward. Likely a chance to do something special. We all want it so bad.

A trip to the Cheez-it or Texas Bowl again? Ok fine. Another decent post-2009 season. And that is the likely scenario which considering how very close we were to winning both Tech and Bama is frustrating. But if Texas goes 8-4 with a 6-3 conference record and a Cheez-it Bowl? The future seems bright, we are getting recruits the team seems focused, we had a decent year. Wait till next year. All that stuff.

If, on the other hand, things go worse than that...I don't know man. I don't want to think about it.