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the 2023 speaker of the house voting thread of implosion


henrygandorf

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4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Really didn't think it would come to this but if McCarthy can't get the votes the name I see mentioned in articles is Fred Upton (as in Kate's uncle and retired Michigan rep).

And I don't read the "start with Kevin" line as expecting Democrats to support McCarthy but rather they should try to do everything they can to get him elected Speaker before moving on to other options. 

Mick Mulvaney floated Upton's name yesterday on CNN after Congress recessed for the night.

 

1 minute ago, bernorange said:

I have not read this entire thread, so apologies if already posted, but, and dumb question amnesty requested:

The Rs have a slight majority, so obviously a D isn't going to get elected as Speaker.  Wouldn't it be a 5D chess move for the Ds to support (ie. vote for) a moderate R for Speaker?  I realize this might seem like a dumb idea on the surface, but the ramifications of doing it seem to perhaps have more nuance/depth than a surface reaction might evoke.  Thwart the Trumpist wing soundly, perhaps weaken the R Speaker's position within his/her party, perhaps engender some tit for tat/leverage with the R Speaker, etc.

Scroll up to post #552 in this thread. Sounds like that idea might be getting bandied about.

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2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Mick Mulvaney floated Upton's name yesterday on CNN after Congress recessed for the night.

 

Scroll up to post #552 in this thread. Sounds like that idea might be getting bandied about.

Why would dems do that? There’s no advantage for the dems to agree on a compromise candidate. If pubs want to compromise tell them they can vote Jeffries or they can continue pantsing themselves 

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47 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Trump (or his advisers) have to be working some game here.   Backing McCarthy "should" get the Gosars, Biggs and Roys to go along.   The fact that they aren't means something else is going on here.   My guess is that Trump is saying one thing out loud (Back McCarthy) doing another in the background (Telling the Freedom Caucus to fight it.)  He's trying to take down McCarthy because Kevin is a threat to him.  Whether that's real or imagined doesn't really matter.

I don’t think Trump is that much of a strategist. And who are his advisers? He doesn’t take advice from anyone unless they’re telling him what he wants to hear. Or if they’re his lawyers telling him he can’t do something or he’ll go to jail. If he can’t stump for a candidate or (ha ha, yeah, right) give them money, I just don’t know what power he has right now. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see but my money is on him not having much sway on who is the next Speaker. 

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Just now, hobbes2702 said:

Why would dems do that? There’s no advantage for the dems to agree on a compromise candidate. If pubs want to compromise tell them they can vote Jeffries or they can continue pantsing themselves 

They would get significant power sharing concessions including chairs of committees. 

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2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

They would get significant power sharing concessions including chairs of committees. 

Meh. Let them implode. Show up for every single vote and vote Jeffries over and over. Make pubs continue to show up and vote.

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1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

Meh. Let them implode. Show up for every single vote and vote Jeffries over and over. Make pubs continue to show up and vote.

if the opportunity presents itself you see if it works because then the Democrats get a LOT more than they would have otherwise as the minority party. 

while the shitshow is entertaining the possibility of moving your agenda forward (even if slower) is much, much more palatable. 

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

if the opportunity presents itself you see if it works because then the Democrats get a LOT more than they would have otherwise as the minority party. 

while the shitshow is entertaining the possibility of moving your agenda forward (even if slower) is much, much more palatable. 

If McCarthy cuts any deals for Dem votes, he's going to lose double the votes from the nutbags in his party who are currently voting for him.  

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1 minute ago, Bama Chick said:

Yeah but that don’t pay the bills, man.

government work isn't known for their fat salaries neither, unfortunately.

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

Well, there you are--McCarthy won't have a majority on the fourth vote.

he almost made it to the d's though, so...

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8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

They would get significant power sharing concessions including chairs of committees. 

If Dems *had* to cut a deal, I'd demand Judiciary Chair be a Dem and cut Jordan off at the knees.  Or else no deal. 

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

government work isn't known for their fat salaries neither, unfortunately.

he almost made it to the d's though, so...

Big deal, South Austin's Mom made it through all the D's.  And she's a goddamn champ if you ask me.

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If Dems *had* to cut a deal, I'd demand Judiciary Chair be a Dem and cut Jordan off at the knees.  Or else no deal. 

Yup. It’s not enough to get a couple chairs. We would need to control specific chairs and powerful ones. Even with a compromise the pubs wouldn’t do that.

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45 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

Typically, when things were still functional, you could horse trade and negotiate with the other guy because he wanted something. These folks want nothing. They have no plan or goal other than to burn it all down. These men are nihilists, Donny.

Correction. They are fascists and theocrats. The believe a mythic God has their backs, they believe in a mythic America ruled under the sacred scrolls of the Bible, they believe they should have total state power to implement that vision.

They are nowhere near nihilists.

As for their plan, I summarized it upthread:

"They have American women living in The Handmaid's Tale, they are coming for all reproductive rights and contraception, they are still working on the border wall, they are humiliating migrants by busing them to cities, they are coming after the rights of LGBTQIA communities and people of color, they are banning books (the burning of books is coming), they are planning on overturning elections, they are in denial of climate disruption (we are way beyond merely "changing" the climate), they are attacking science with complete idiocy, from evolution to Covid. The list of targets will keep expanding. Eventually, they'll be coming after the non-believers in religion. It's only a matter of time."

 

Edited by BevoAbyss
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26 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I have not read this entire thread, so apologies if already posted, but, and dumb question amnesty requested:

The Rs have a slight majority, so obviously a D isn't going to get elected as Speaker.  Wouldn't it be a 5D chess move for the Ds to support (ie. vote for) a moderate R for Speaker?  I realize this might seem like a dumb idea on the surface, but the ramifications of doing it seem to perhaps have more nuance/depth than a surface reaction might evoke.  Thwart the Trumpist wing soundly, perhaps weaken the R Speaker's position within his/her party, perhaps engender some tit for tat/leverage with the R Speaker, etc.

I am just noodling on this for fun. Not saying I agree with it.  
 

But is the idea to trial balloon a group of Dems voting for a moderate Republican in a vote to create momentum and get the folks supporting Kevin to consider to switch to that person in subsequent vote?
 

I don’t think prisoners’ dilemma game theory would allow for it, but that outcome is nice because it sidelined the 20 never Kevins and probably folks like MTG as well. 

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He can't, because he can't risk Lou going over to DeSantis.

Donald Trump has the self restraint and strategic chops to recognize that - and just sit on being dissed in public?     Maybe. Maybe not. 

Edited by Gatorubet
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11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If Dems *had* to cut a deal, I'd demand Judiciary Chair be a Dem and cut Jordan off at the knees.  Or else no deal. 

i wouldn't even start entertaining offers until next week.

make it clear that we're in absolutely no hurry.

until then, the answer to "what do you want?" is "the mother fucking gavel".

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Serious question.  What are the odds of 20-30 moderate Republicans (if they exist) cutting a deal with the Dems which would make Jeffries Speaker and split the committee chairs?

Dems have all the leverage here and don't need to help the Republicans while they're stepping on their dicks.  Also, I don't see any other Republican being acceptable to the entire Republican caucus.

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3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

What are those 20 holding out for ?

money ?

There's blood in the water, and this is a chance to knock McCarthy out now, rather than wait for the Dems to do it.

And arguably Boebert, Gaetz, etc. are at their peak power/influence right now.  They'll never have this much influence again.

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9 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

I don’t think prisoners’ dilemma game theory would allow for it, but that outcome is nice because it sidelined the 20 never Kevins and probably folks like MTG as well. 

Prisoners' dilemma doesn't apply here:

Quote

The Prisoner's Dilemma is a game analyzed in game theory. It is a thought experiment that challenges two completely rational agents to a dilemma: cooperate with their partner for mutual reward, or betray their partner for individual reward.

 

Edited by Beau Vine
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10 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Serious question.  What are the odds of 20-30 moderate Republicans (if they exist) cutting a deal with the Dems which would make Jeffries Speaker and split the committee chairs?

Dems have all the leverage here and don't need to help the Republicans while they're stepping on their dicks.  Also, I don't see any other Republican being acceptable to the entire Republican caucus.

yesterday i would've said there was no compromise possible.  but after gaetz's eviction letter, i think just about everything is on the table.

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I'm thinking this is more akin to the 2 Sentries guarding the two doors.  One Sentry can only lie, the other can only tell the truth.  One door is the Speaker of the House position and untold power.  Other door is retiring in shame in Bakersfield, CA of all places.  McCarthy can ask only one question of one Sentry and is forced to choose a door after hearing the answer.  What does Kevin do?

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44 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:


Off topic - but @Bateshorn your career is so fascinating to me. Any way a 50 year old liberal woman from Alabama - with no career experience in politics - can get in the door?

I have a Masters and did sales, marketing, hospital administration for 25 years.

Just wanting to get the fuck out of Alabama and do something meaningful.

Traditionally people get admin or hill jobs by working as interns or on campaigns. From there they transition into private life either lobbying, non profit, etc.  

My advice is to get involved with politics at a local level: volunteering in campaigns, local advocacy groups, etc.  there’s a bit of  right place at the right time component to it, but the first thing you have to do is be politics adjacent.  You could apply for internships, but much like line chef, that’s a young persons game. 
 

The federal government is always hiring, but those jobs are highly specialized and you need to know someone on the inside. I’m happy to start an AMA if there’s interest.  


Assuming you aren’t  hitbyAtrain of course…..

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