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Texas Basketball Recruiting Notes: A Clean Shave


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6 hours ago, HookEm said:

Go ahead and post your list of high impact freshman in March in recent years then.

This is becoming very aggie. Duke should've won the title last year with a freshman dominated team. Jalen Suggs made a game winner in the final four two years ago. Alabama was the No. 1 overall seed thanks to a freshman. Just because Texas has had a string of tweener, long development curve forwards or defensive big men five stars doesn't mean they're worthless. Get old, stay old remains the maxim in the sport, but you don't see KU or Baylor or Gonzaga simply ignoring recruiting five star freshman. 

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2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I'd prefer to have 1-2 5 stars littered in with seasoned transfers with 1-2 developmental freshmen guys

This is the way, and notably, the way that almost every title team winner the last decade or so has gone. UConn was not a bunch of gritty 2-3 stars either, almost all of their rotation guys except the ECU transfer was a borderline 5 star on the 247 composite. Get old by developing your players, stay old by the same + the portal, and inject the one and dones who are not on long dev curves (the actual problem with UT one and dones since KD) as the icing on the cake. 

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48 minutes ago, RollingPresidential said:

This is the way, and notably, the way that almost every title team winner the last decade or so has gone. UConn was not a bunch of gritty 2-3 stars either, almost all of their rotation guys except the ECU transfer was a borderline 5 star on the 247 composite. Get old by developing your players, stay old by the same + the portal, and inject the one and dones who are not on long dev curves (the actual problem with UT one and dones since KD) as the icing on the cake. 

Wondering if we need to focus on players in the 30-75 range?  No, I'm not advocating on passing on guys like Holland.

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3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Wondering if we need to focus on players in the 30-75 range?  No, I'm not advocating on passing on guys like Holland.

Take what you get as 5 star talent is rare, but do elite scouting on psychological side. Make sure said player is the right fit for your system.

 

Make a living off highly ranked 4 stars, the 30-80 range. Find the right body types mixed with athleticism in that rank and you can shine. 

 

Don't take a pure defensive specialist type at all. Was listening to a pod cast and in this day and the gist was that in this day and age of basketball having a player be an offensive liability is worse than a defensive liability. Need 5 people who can score.

 

 

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Way more often than not, these prima donna top-10 recruits are more trouble than they are worth during their one year rental.  And if anyone disagrees, go ahead and a bunch of top-10 freshman who have made an impact in March in the last 5 years.  And then I will list you 3X as many who didn't do anything.

It seems like basketball recruiting is too much for you. Maybe just don’t follow it and wait for the season to start.
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9 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Brumbaugh didn't sign up to play for Terry and he didn't get one minute of playing time. 

Why would he have stayed is a better question. 

I was under the assumption (perhaps falsely) that he knew he was coming in as a developmental guy behind veteran guards and Morris and was redshirting from the start. 

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13 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

I was under the assumption (perhaps falsely) that he knew he was coming in as a developmental guy behind veteran guards and Morris and was redshirting from the start. 

Sure - he was going to redshirt either way - but whatever he was promised he was promised from a guy not on the staff anymore. Whether Beard was the primary recruiter or not. 

He could have stuck it out but I understand him leaving. He'll get more PT at Gtown.

I mean between him, AJ, Holland, Arterio and Tyrese I expected a few guys to leave. Maybe not all 5 potentially but I think Hunter stays. 

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My issue isn't that I don't like the one-and-dones.  It is fun to have NBA-level talent on a team and then to follow them in the NBA.

I just don't think they generally promote winning basketball in March.  And they represent lost opportunity to go get top-level transfers because they demand minutes, NIL $$$ and special attention that could be spent on more mature players.  As I said previously, our team would have been better last year with all of Dillon Mitchell's minutes being given to Brock Cunningham, and he isn't even a great player.  

If you take the top-10 players for each of the last 3 years (using RSCI), you have 30 players.  Here are some tournament stats for them:

  • 2 Final Fours  (Paulo Banchero and Jalen Sugs)
  • 2 Elite Eights (Evan Mobley and Dillon Mitchell)
  • 11 zero or one win NCAA Tourneys
  • 6 Missed NCAA Tourneys
  • Average Season:  11.5 PTS, 5.1 TRB, 2.2 AST

Here are those players:

2022  - 10.1 PTS, 4.4 TRB, 1.7 AST, 45.4 FG%, 34.1 3P%, 72.3 FT%, 2.3 WS, 1.4 NCAA Win Ave, Zero Final Fours

  1. Dariq Whitehead – Duke – 8.8 PTS, 2.4 TRB, 1.3 AST – 1 NCAA Win
  2. Dereck Lively – Duke – 4.7 PTS, 4.7 TRB, 1.0 AST – 1 NCAA Win
  3. Nick Smith – Arkansas – 9.9 PTS, 1.4 TRB, 1.4 AST  (36.5 FG%) – 2 NCAA Wins
  4. Kyle Filipowski – Duke – 15.1 PTS, 9.2 TRB, 1.3 AST – 1 NCAA Win
  5. Dillon Mitchell – Texas – 5.4 PTS, 4.5 TRB, 0.5 AST – 3 NCAA Wins, Elite 8
  6. Kel’el Ware – Oregon – 6.7 PTS, 4.0 TRB, 0.6 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney
  7. Keyonte George – Baylor – 16.6 PTS, 4.5 TRB, 3.0 AST  (38.9 FG%) – 1 NCAA Win
  8. Carson Wallace – Kentucky – 11.8 PTS, 3.7 TRB, 4.1 AST – 1 NCAA Win
  9. Jarace Walker – Houston – 11.3 PTS, 6.4 TRB, 1.8 AST – 2 NCAA Wins
  10. Amari Bailey – UCLA – 10.3 PTS, 3.4 TRB, 2.1 AST – 2 NCAA Wins

 

2021 – 11.8 PTS, 5.6 TRB, 2.4 AST, 46.5 FG%, 35.8 3P%, 72.7 FT%, 3.6 WS, 1.2 NCAA Win Ave, One Final Four

  1. Chet Holmgren – Gonzaga - 14.1 PTS, 9.9 TRB, 1.9 AST – 2 NCAA Wins
  2. Jaden Hardy - none
  3. Paulo Banchero – Duke - 17.2 PTS, 7.8 TRB, 3.2 AST – 4 NCAA Wins, Final Four
  4. Jabari Smith – Auburn - 16.9 PTS, 7.4 TRB, 2.0 AST – 1 NCAA Win
  5. Patrick Baldwin – Milwaukee - 12.1 PTS, 5.8 TRB, 1.5 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney
  6. Kennedy Chandler – Tennessee - 13.9 PTS, 3.2 TRB, 4.7 AST – 1 NCAA Wins
  7. Caleb Houstan – Michigan - 10.1 PTS, 4.0 REB, 1.4 AST – 2 NCAA Wins
  8. Peyton Watson – UCLA - 3.3 PTS, 2.9 TRB, 0.8 AST – 2 NCAA Wins
  9. JD Davison – Alabama - 8.5 PTS, 4.8 TRB, 4.3 AST – 0 NCAA Wins
  10. Jendall Brown – Baylor - 9.7 PTS, 4.9 TRB, 1.9 AST – 1 NCAA Win

 

2020 – 13.0 PTS, 5.2 TRB, 2.5 AST, 45.5 FG%, 32.7 3P%, 74.5 FT%, 2.5 WS, 1.1 NCAA Win Ave, One Final Four

  1. Cade Cunningham – OSU – 20.1 PTS, 6.2 TRB, 3.5 AST – 1 NCAA Win
  2. Jalen Green - none
  3. Evan Mobley – USC – 16.4 PTS, 8.7 TRB, 2.4 AST – 3 NCAA Wins, Elite 8
  4. Brandon Boston – Kentucky - 11.5 PTS, 4.5 TRB, 1.6 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney
  5. Scottie Barnes – FSU - 10.3 PTS, 4.0 TRB, 4.1 AST – 2 NCAA Wins
  6. Ziaire Williams – Stanford - 10.7 PTS, 4.6 TRB, 2.2 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney
  7. Jalen Suggs – Gonzaga - 14.4 PTS, 5.3 TRB, 4.5 AST – 5 NCAA Wins, NCAA Title Game
  8. Greg Brown – Texas - 9.3 PTS, 6.2 TRB, 0.4 AST – 0 NCAA Wins
  9. Terrence Clarke – Kentucky - 9.6 PTS, 2.6 TRB, 2.0 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney
  10. Josh Christopher – ASU - 14.3 PTS, 4.7 TRB, 1.4 AST – Missed NCAA Tourney
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1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

I've been wondering the same thing re: Brumbaugh.  He seemed like a great developmental candidate. 

 

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Brumbaugh didn't sign up to play for Terry and he didn't get one minute of playing time. 

Why would he have stayed is a better question. 

And he’s also from the Northeast and just transferred to a school back there. So yeah, he was never going to stay once Beard was fired, and he still may not have stayed. It’s not like he was playing under Beard. 

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If I have time, I will do the same exercise for the top-10 transfer portal players for the same years.

You are viewing this as binary when it’s not. You’re also falling victim to recency bias. For however long players are required to spend one year in college it will be worth taking a few swings at the elites.

The contact rate is going to be low, but you don’t fully close the door to either pipeline of talent.
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2 minutes ago, RichUT said:


You are viewing this as binary when it’s not. You’re also falling victim to recency bias. For however long players are required to spend one year in college it will be worth taking a few swings at the elites.

The contact rate is going to be low, but you don’t fully close the door to either pipeline of talent.

It’s not as binary as you’re making it out to be. The hit rate on high school one and dones is much lower than proven transfers and a lot of the one and dones are super expensive to secure. So it’s generally a more efficient use of money to go after transfers and you also have a better shot of keeping them for multiple years. The majority of HS 5 stars declare for the draft or transfer after Year 1. 
 

Im not saying we should completely forego one and dones, but we should definitely focus way more of our resources on transfers and program guys out of HS. 

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I don't view it as binary at all.  The whole thing is an optimization exercise.  We have a fixed number of roster spots, fixed number of minutes to allocate, fixed amount of NIL resources, etc.  I am only saying where I would focus my resources. 

Also, I think this is a case where recency bias is way more appropriate than a long-term perspective.  The game has changed.  Five years ago players had to sit out a year if they wanted to transfer.  Five years ago we didn't have NIL.  In the old environment it made more sense to go after high-level one and dones.  Now, the smart teams will adjust. 

I think this is why Kentucky is struggling. They haven't adjusted to the new landscape.

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9 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I don't view it as binary at all.  The whole thing is an optimization exercise.  We have a fixed number of roster spots, fixed number of minutes to allocate, fixed amount of NIL resources, etc.  I am only saying where I would focus my resources. 

Also, I think this is a case where recency bias is way more appropriate than a long-term perspective.  The game has changed.  Five years ago players had to sit out a year if they wanted to transfer.  Five years ago we didn't have NIL.  In the old environment it made more sense to go after high-level one and dones.  Now, the smart teams will adjust. 

I think this is why Kentucky is struggling. They haven't adjusted to the new landscape.

 

Kentucky struggles because Cal keeps running an offense from the 1990s

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Here are the top-10 transfer portal recruits for 2022...  It gets a little harder to go back and find previous years - and there isn't a consensus so I had to average a few sites.

2022 – 14.3 PTS, 4.9 TRB, 2.7 AST – 1.3 NCAA Win Ave, One Final Four + 2 Elite Eight

  1. Kendrick Davis – Memphis – 21.9 PTS, 3.7 TRB, 5.4 AST – NCAA Round 1
  2. Nijel Pack – Miami – 13.6 PTS, 2.7 TRB, 2.3 AST – Final Four
  3. Tyrese Hunter – Texas – 10.3 PTS, 3.0 TRB, 2.5 AST – Elite Eight
  4. Brandon Murray – Georgetown – 13.7 PTS, 3.9 TRB, 3.2 AST – NCAA Round 1
  5. Kevin McCullar – Kansas – 10.7 PTS, 7.0 TRB, 2.4 AST – NCAA Round 2
  6. Terrence Shannon – Illinois – 17.2 PTS, 4.6 TRB, 2.8 AST – NCAA Round 1
  7. Baylor Sheierman – Creighton – 12.8 PTS, 8.3 TRB, 3.3 AST – Elite Eight
  8. Isiaih Mosley – Missouri – 9.6 PTS, 2.0 TRB, 2.5 AST – NCAA Round 2
  9. Johni Broome – Auburn – 14.2 PTS, 8.4 TRB, 1.3 AST – NCAA Round 2
  10. Emoni Bates - Eastern Michigan – 19.2 PTS, 5.8 TRB, 1.4 AST – Missed Tourney

As a group they are better in just about every way than the top-10 high-school recruits. 

If you extend it out to the top-25 transfers, it shows how deep the pool is.  You add in a National Champion + another Final Four + 2 more Elite Eights. And as a group, they averaged 11.6 PTS, 5.5 TRB, 1.8 AST, 3.1 WS  

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It seems like the conversation has shifted away from “recruit absolutely zero five star HS players” towards a discussion about the allocation of resources across HS recruits and transfer portal targets. I can get on board with a 70/30 or 80/20 portal/HS player model.

That wasn’t the initial solution offered up, however.

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I wouldn’t allocate anything toward 5 stars, especially high 5 stars. I stand by that. Reasonable people can disagree. I could see bringing in one per year but I wouldn’t fret if it didn’t work out. 

I would definitely bring in 2-3 high school recruits per year in the 40-100 range and try to keep them for 3-4 years. This seems to be the Michigan State model.

Mainly though, I would prioritize getting several top-25 portal targets every year, hopefully with 2 years left to play. I would also prioritize cultural fit above everything else to try to get some continuity.

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2 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I wouldn’t allocate anything toward 5 stars, especially high 5 stars. I stand by that. Reasonable people can disagree. I could see bringing in one per year but I wouldn’t fret if it didn’t work out. 

I would definitely bring in 2-3 high school recruits per year in the 40-100 range and try to keep them for 3-4 years. This seems to be the Michigan State model.

Mainly though, I would prioritize getting several top-25 portal targets every year, hopefully with 2 years left to play. I would also prioritize cultural fit above everything else to try to get some continuity.

So you wouldn't allocate anything to the #1 recruit in the country? Seems smart!

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I wouldn’t allocate anything toward 5 stars, especially high 5 stars. I stand by that. Reasonable people can disagree.


And you lost me again.

Listen, it doesn’t make a shit bit of difference what either of us thinks here. But I’m not seeing a world where we would never want the buzz/juice associated with pulling down the blue bloods. The program benefits from that in ways that go beyond the pure on court product.
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Going forward, it's going to be a rare player at the HS level that justifies Texas NIL pushing significant chips in on him. The falloff from the high 5 stars to damned good 4 stars that can be developed isn't enough to merit the massive gap in dollar figures between the two groups. It's unbelievable, really. Also, in basketball, the problem with endless dollars isn't just Oregon, but also, apparently, Arkansas, at the least. It's not like Texas isn't well-heeled, either. 

I'm not offering an opinion as part of y'all's discussion. This is just how it is going to be.

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18 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

So you wouldn't allocate anything to the #1 recruit in the country? Seems smart!

Nope. I wouldn't personally, but I can understand why others may see if differently.  How much effort do you think you have to extend to get the #1 recruit?  What are your odds of getting them AND keeping them? How much NIL $$$ do you have to throw their way? Will they buy into your culture and their role on the team?  

Of course, if this recruit has close ties to the program or was in our backyard then that would change the calculation.  

 

10 minutes ago, RichUT said:

But I’m not seeing a world where we would never want the buzz/juice associated with pulling down the blue bloods. The program benefits from that in ways that go beyond the pure on court product.

I can agree with this.  For me, that is the main benefit of bringing in the true blue chips - cache for the program.  I just don't think it is NESSARY.

 

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On 4/28/2023 at 4:43 PM, MuellerHorn said:

Today just keeps getting more fun. 
 

 

 

At least we are moving to the SEC and won't have to play against him but one year?

 

On 4/28/2023 at 3:15 PM, Frank Drebin said:

Ouch.  Terry probably won't last long

 

Very Trew.

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Was just talking with a buddy today about this- it's really hard to justify paying a freshman 1 and done any amount of NIL money when you can instead get a SirJabari Rice, Dylan Disu and Max Abram for the same price. I know those 3 are going to help the team a shitload more than the 1 and done- unless his name is Kevin Durant and you already have the infrastructure in place.  

I think Holland might have been that rare 1 and done guy I wanted on my team- but if the price tag was the kid from VA and the kid from ORU and the UTEP kid then whatever- I don't give a shit- bye bye Holland.  

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So you think Paolo Banchero wouldn't move the needle? How about Cade Cunningham? Some of you are taking this delusion a bit too far. There's a level of talent that is definitely a must take in any and all circumstances, it's just a matter of how refined that talent is and the personality of said  player. Morris and Mitchell aren't one and done talents. Yeah Mitchell may get drafted, but it's not based on his skill level. Someone like Tre Johnson is a guy you take on Monday through Sunday. Ron Holland may be on that level too. And given last year's play, Anthony Black was that level of player as well and no level of post decommitment justification makes this any less of a fact. 

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Dallas area AAU is a tough nut to crack. Until Beard got commitments from Morris and Holland we were damn near 0 for 20 years in cracking prospects from top flight Dallas AAU swuads. Andrew Jones was somewhat of an anomaly with his family really being from Midland and they only moved to Dallas to broaden his sister's prospects when Andrew was young. And Myles Turner played for an off brand AAU team so we were fortunate we didnt have to deal with the normal DFW cesspool in his recruitment.  

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48 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

So you think Paolo Banchero wouldn't move the needle? How about Cade Cunningham? Some of you are taking this delusion a bit too far. There's a level of talent that is definitely a must take in any and all circumstances, it's just a matter of how refined that talent is and the personality of said  player. Morris and Mitchell aren't one and done talents. Yeah Mitchell may get drafted, but it's not based on his skill level. Someone like Tre Johnson is a guy you take on Monday through Sunday. Ron Holland may be on that level too. And given last year's play, Anthony Black was that level of player as well and no level of post decommitment justification makes this any less of a fact. 

In college for one year?  Honestly I’d take Disu, Abmas and Rice almost every year for the same money over all the guys you talked about. I would imagine the money on that 3 for 1 is probably pretty similar. If I had a squad of 4 starters I really liked already in place?  Yeah- the 1 and done dude is the best idea probably. 

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12 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

So you think Paolo Banchero wouldn't move the needle? How about Cade Cunningham? Some of you are taking this delusion a bit too far. There's a level of talent that is definitely a must take in any and all circumstances, it's just a matter of how refined that talent is and the personality of said  player. Morris and Mitchell aren't one and done talents. Yeah Mitchell may get drafted, but it's not based on his skill level. Someone like Tre Johnson is a guy you take on Monday through Sunday. Ron Holland may be on that level too. And given last year's play, Anthony Black was that level of player as well and no level of post decommitment justification makes this any less of a fact. 

Both of those guys played during a different period in college basketball. Neither played when NIL and the portal were as much a factor as they are today, Banchero missed it by a season, but he was one of the rare guys that was ready to lead a team as a freshmen, but he also had the GOAT coaching him. How did Duke do with their 5-star one and dones this season? Won one game in the tournament, and only Filipowski looked like he knew what he was doing.

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5 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Both of those guys played during a different period in college basketball. Neither played when NIL and the portal were as much a factor as they are today, Banchero missed it by a season, but he was one of the rare guys that was ready to lead a team as a freshmen, but he also had the GOAT coaching him. How did Duke do with their 5-star one and dones this season? Won one game in the tournament, and only Filipowski looked like he knew what he was doing.

Nobody is suggesting that we load the team up with nothing but 1 and dones, but this idea that we totally do away with going after uber elite talent because 2 guys who weren't uber elite talents decided to transfer after one year is foolish. 

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31 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

Why do all of you assume that all 5stars will be one-and-dones?

All 5-stars won’t be one and dones, but they all think they will be. And that isn’t any better for us in the era of the transfer portal.

Teenagers aren’t introspective. A good amount of the ones who aren’t one and done will blame the school for it before they blame themselves.

Im not one of the people who thinks we should entirely stop recruiting 5-stars, but there is an obvious downside. 5-stars are likely to be less patient.

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A top 5 ranked HS basketball player basing - for all intents and purposes - how he begins his professional basketball career on where some chick goes to college has to be one of the dumbest fucking things I've ever heard. I refuse to believe that. I've never heard of a one and done doing something like that. 

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I’m definitely on board with using resources to recruit older, experienced players.  With pro basketball offering these 18 year old big money, it doesn’t make sense to expend a bulk of your resources on a 5 star that demands playing time and shots.  Both our 5 star players could barely crack the lineup with older experienced guys on the court.  We just had our best year in a decade plus with transfers that have proven themselves on the college level in some aspect.  They understand what it takes to win at the college level and like Gerry said, you normally don’t have to deal with the bullshit from them like you do with freshman that have expectations.  We should probably stick to what worked for us last year.  Obviously I would take Ron Holland if he wanted to come here but look at the resources and time that were put into that recruitment and how it ended up the minute he got a better offer.  Just not worth it in my opinion. 

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