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Israel-Hamas war thread


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11 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s some strong WWI vibes of no one wanting to go to war but no one really feeling like they have a choice here, BTW.

With the added complexity of some actors (in Hamas and Hizbollah) that are apocalyptic and believe God will prevail for them if they have faith.  FWIW, I don’t think Iranian leadership believes that. But their legitimacy inside Iran rests on them ACTING as though they believe it so it might not make a difference. 

Hamas has no choice, it's an existential moment for them, and they are all in as their leadership is slowly being picked off.  Well, they have one option - somebody within Hamas rises up and removes the remaining leadership/turns them over to the Israelis and tries to do a ceasefire of sorts, but given that Hamas is who they always said they were, the chances of somebody within Hamas trying to end this peacefully are extremely low.

For Hezbollah it's not yet existential, but if they attack while Israel is trying to deal with Hamas, it will become existential for them, and the US and others very well could become involved, both on the tactical level (going after Hezbollah targets directly with all those F-15Es the USAF parked in Jordan this weekend), but also on a strategic level by cutting off Hezbollah from Iran (helped by the US having forces in Syria and Iraq).

 

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3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I guess it depends on how much Israel is willing to accept fuckery wrt Iran?

What is Iran's military capability right now? The drones they gave to Russia and some human waves like it's 1980?

It's a weird dynamic - Israel's 9 million vs Iran's 88 million, but Israel is much better armed with high-tech and tested equipment - Iran has drones and missiles that they've been selling Russia, and of the stuff that could reach Israel, I doubt the Saudis/Iraqis/Turks want it flying overhead.

Meanwhile, Israel is preparing their tanks

 

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

For Hezbollah it's not yet existential, but if they attack while Israel is trying to deal with Hamas, it will become existential for them, and the US and others very well could become involved, both on the tactical level (going after Hezbollah targets directly with all those F-15Es the USAF parked in Jordan this weekend), but also on a strategic level by cutting off Hezbollah from Iran (helped by the US having forces in Syria and Iraq).

A good friend of mine lives in Beruit said that airlines have diverted away and there's no more outbound flights available. He's convinced that Hezbollah doesn't want to get drawn in as a combatant into Israel because they're so over stretched already, and it would mean their demise in no uncertain terms. 

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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s some strong WWI vibes of no one wanting to go to war but no one really feeling like they have a choice here, BTW.

With the added complexity of some actors (in Hamas and Hizbollah) that are apocalyptic and believe God will prevail for them if they have faith.  FWIW, I don’t think Iranian leadership believes that. But their legitimacy inside Iran rests on them ACTING as though they believe it so it might not make a difference. 

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1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

I guess it depends on how much Israel is willing to accept fuckery wrt Iran?

 

What is Iran's military capability right now? The drones they gave to Russia and some human waves like it's 1980?

Iran’s power projection capacity is extremely limited. Their Air Force’s best assets are F-14s they haven’t been able to maintain and some MiG-29s and Su-24s that are likely in terrible shape. There is no real threat that they are able to directly intervene with Israel.

There is a lot of space between Iran and Israel. There is no hope for Iran to deploy ground or naval assets into a place to threaten Israel.  None. 
 

There are some ballistic missiles that have that range but Israel’s retaliatory capacity far outstrips their capabilities there. 
 

Their real play is asymmetric and drawing us offsides elsewhere. 

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yep, and Iran can hit soft targets via proxies as they have proven more than a few times. 

One thing they have is the ability to use Syrian assets. Sure, we got US troops in Syria, but not sure we could stop the movement of equipment and people. So yeah, artillery and human waves. Sprinkle in some terror acts and away we go. 

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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Worth pointing out that there’d be no political space to do this if the admin hadn’t come out hard in support of Israel rhetorically. Without going further at risk of CR, it’s notable how limited the political jockeying at home has been around this. 

A coworker asked why there was so much support for Israel.  I told him to look up AIPAC.  

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4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s some strong WWI vibes of no one wanting to go to war but no one really feeling like they have a choice here, BTW.

With the added complexity of some actors (in Hamas and Hizbollah) that are apocalyptic and believe God will prevail for them if they have faith.  FWIW, I don’t think Iranian leadership believes that. But their legitimacy inside Iran rests on them ACTING as though they believe it so it might not make a difference. 

And that one turned out so well. 😬

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42 minutes ago, ztejas said:

That said, my support for Israel is almost totally unwavering. Because at the end of the day I'm a passionate American. I believe in what this country was founded upon and I believe in what it continues to at least try and stand for at the fringes. I believe in what the founding fathers believed in and I think it's the blueprint for just governance. 

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2 hours ago, ztejas said:

I'm an avid conspiracy theorist. I am willing to believe in almost anything that makes sense to me as long as someone presents it intelligently with supporting, objective/verifiable information. Shit - I'd be willing to believe that the Jews have a secret plan in place to install a NWO and put themselves in positions of ultimate power if someone presented it to me in the right way.

What if I told you that the secret plan starts with Fran Drescher being put in charge of the Screen Actors Guild?

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16 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

BNO reporting Muslim shooter. AP reporting the shooting, not making that allegation. BNO has been a good source in the past. 

 

https://apnews.com/article/belgium-shooting-swedes-dead-d023a72119dc73ffca7cc61b7a32a955

BRUSSELS (AP) — Two people were killed in a shooting late Monday in central Brussels, Belgian police said. 

Media reports aired amateur videos showing a man shooting several times near a station using a large weapon, and Belgian broadcasters said the two victims were Swedes. The Swedish national team was scheduled to play Belgium at Heysel Stadium later in the evening, some 3 miles (5 kilometers) away. 

Police spokeswoman Ilse Vande Keere said officers arrived soon at the scene, and sealed off the immediate neighborhood. She declined to elaborate on the circumstances of the shooting. 

The shooting came at a time of increased vigilance linked to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war that has heightened tension in several European nations.

Said he was inspired by ISIS. They believe he purposefully targeted Swedes due to the Quran burnings.

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14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's a weird dynamic - Israel's 9 million vs Iran's 88 million, but Israel is much better armed with high-tech and tested equipment - Iran has drones and missiles that they've been selling Russia, and of the stuff that could reach Israel, I doubt the Saudis/Iraqis/Turks want it flying overhead.

Meanwhile, Israel is preparing their tanks

 

I assume to protect from drone shenanigans?

 

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21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Most likely, but also if they are in urban settings, people tossing shit out of windows above them (Molotov cocktails, etc.).

This.  And shaped charge warheads like the RPG and others that can attack from the top from as elevated position.  

This is just beginning.  Shock and awe is coming to a head, now it's time for the ground assault.  

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I highly recommend The Looming Tower series on Hulu.

Aside from the infuriating failure of our government re 9/11, it gives great insight into the Arab culture and al Queada/terrorism in general. 

The lunatics want us and the jews the absolute fuck out of what they consider their holy lands. Full stop. There will never be a compromise.

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15 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I highly recommend The Looming Tower series on Hulu.

Aside from the infuriating failure of our government re 9/11, it gives great insight into the Arab culture and al Queada/terrorism in general. 

The lunatics want us and the jews the absolute fuck out of what they consider their holy lands. Full stop. There will never be a compromise.

And we'll never leave because we have too many interests there.  So here we are. 

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31 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

I highly recommend The Looming Tower series on Hulu.

 

The book is even better. Written and narrated by Austin based Lawrence Wright who also wrote God Save Texas: A Journey into the Soul of the Lone Star State which was depressingly fantastic too.

 

Who knew that the sluty women of Greeley, Colorado would be the cause of 9/11? 

Edited by SimonBolivar
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Israel is in an impossible situation due to (1) the cultural desire of their neighbors to eradicate them making negotiation a failure fait accompli, (2) the very nature of a terrorist organization controlling Gaza how they act, fight and govern from that terrorist mindset (see how the Palestinians are fucked below), (3) the attitude of Palestinian neighbors who will not render aid, and (4) the military objective to eliminate Hamas.

The Palestinian people are in an impossible situation due to (1) their military and current political power lies in the hands of a terrorist organization, (2) that terrorist organization uses them as a weapon and steals the limited resources given to the Palestinians, (3) broader motivations exist in the region to cause conflict at their expense, (4) their education system is so effed up they are brainwashed to hate their Israeli/Jewish neighbors to further ensure a fighter pipeline among young men and to reinforce cultural attitudes, (5) their Arab neighbors do not want them in their own country, and (6) their political and military leadership had the wise idea just last week to fire 6500 rockets on Israel and to go on a murderous and kidnapping spree.

I hope now that some senior Hamas leadership is dead Israel now shows restraint, I hope they achieve their objective, I hope human lives can be preserved, but I don't see much in reality other than more war and more death.

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1 minute ago, troph said:

Israel is in an impossible situation due to (1) the cultural desire of their neighbors to eradicate them making negotiation a failure fait accompli, (2) the very nature of a terrorist organization controlling Gaza how they act, fight and govern from that terrorist mindset (see how the Palestinians are fucked below), (3) the attitude of Palestinian neighbors who will not render aid, and (4) the military objective to eliminate Hamas.

The Palestinian people are in an impossible situation due to (1) their military and current political power lies in the hands of a terrorist organization, (2) that terrorist organization uses them as a weapon and steals the limited resources given to the Palestinians, (3) broader motivations exist in the region to cause conflict at their expense, (4) their education system is so effed up they are brainwashed to hate their Israeli/Jewish neighbors to further ensure a fighter pipeline among young men and to reinforce cultural attitudes, (5) their Arab neighbors do not want them in their own country, and (6) their political and military leadership had the wise idea just last week to fire 6500 rockets on Israel and to go on a murderous and kidnapping spree.

I hope now that some senior Hamas leadership is dead Israel now shows restraint, I hope they achieve their objective, I hope human lives can be preserved, but I don't see much in reality other than more war and more death.

It seems there has been some pressure from the US to show restraint. Hopefully that continues to limit casualties.

Just now, bolverk said:

Might want to slow your roll on Jordan. They already host about 2.4 million refugees, which I imagine in a country of 10 million is about all they can handle.

I mean why bother looking something up when you can read a tweet and get mad instead?

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6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Might want to slow your roll on Jordan. They already host about 2.4 million refugees, which I imagine in a country of 10 million is about all they can handle.

not shitting on Jordan specifically, just the fact that basically the entire Arab world does the absolute minimum for the Palestinians because of where they are and the fact they can use them as a stick to beat Israel with.

Jordan has a ton of Palestinian and Syrian refugees there, not sure where your # is from but I've seen about 2m registered Pal. and the thought is there is another like 1.3m Syrian refugees there (like half registered with UNRWA)

Edited by NoName
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15 minutes ago, troph said:

Israel is in an impossible situation due to (1) the cultural desire of their neighbors to eradicate them making negotiation a failure fait accompli,

Just give them Oregon. Or New Zealand. 10x the space and far away from the ‘Rabs. 

Everybody wins. 

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17 minutes ago, NoName said:

not shitting on Jordan specifically, just the fact that basically the entire Arab world does the absolute minimum for the Palestinians because of where they are and the fact they can use them as a stick to beat Israel with.

 

This.  Egypt especially says hold my beer as they share a border with the strip and have done basically fuck all to alleviate things.  

2 minutes ago, Deej said:

Leave New Zealand alone. 

Obligatory

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