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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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2 hours ago, Gut Wagon said:

We haven't trailed much at all this year. Credit to our fast starts, as per usual with Sark scripting the attack. I think UGA tends to get a media mulligan for past achievements and will continue to until they finally lose. 

It’s a very odd take with a team that has no losses that they are living on past achievements until they lose Wouldn't they also be living on current achievements by definition since they are undefeated?

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35 minutes ago, Mach 1 said:

Hey man, I’m In agreement that Texas is unfortunately on the outside looking in, but don’t keep pushing out arguments that are contrary to your thesis. Re: Washington and Alabama.

Forgot to add FSU.

Agreed about Alabama, that SECSECSEC bias is real and bullshit. Washington and FSU  are still undefeated. They get the benefit of the doubt at this stage in the season. And Washington has a ton of underwhelming wins.  

To your larger point: prolly time for me to step back on this thing. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Agreed about Alabama, that SECSECSEC bias is real and bullshit. Washington and FSU  are still undefeated. They get the benefit of the doubt at this stage in the season. And Washington has a ton of underwhelming wins.  

To your larger point: prolly time for me to step back on this thing. 

You referenced top 10 ten teams in prior posts. I think you meant top 10 ahead of us. Not fucking with you, but I get what you’re saying, and I think your argument is valid but debatable.  This weekend will decide if we should scream bloody murder or say aiight.

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1 hour ago, GTJ1982 said:

Wonder if the committee would have the guts to leave out Alabama if they win next weekend but FSU, Washington, and Michigan finish undefeated conference champs and Texas wins the big 12.  Almost feel that is the best scenario for Texas.  Head to head is part of the criteria.  No amount of twisting and turning could justify putting in Alabama over Texas or undefeated P5 conference champions.  

I don’t agree with what I’m about to say, but I’ll make the counter case—-

the head to head criteria only comes into play if the teams are closely matched. If Bama beats Georgia, the committee will say Bama is so much better than Texas, that they won’t invoke that piece of criteria. Bama would be #2-3 compared to #6-7 Texas. 
 

It’s total bullshit, but unfortunately for us that’s how they’ll justify ignoring the h2h.

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7 hours ago, BurgleBro said:

That was Texas strategy most the last 15 years and we failed to win the conference and convert that into a national title. 

 

 

well yeah.  we had one coach quit on the job, one who couldn't actually field a competitive D1 football team, and an asshole who didn't believe in momentum.

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8 minutes ago, Brew said:

It’s a very odd take with a team that has no losses that they are living on past achievements until they lose Wouldn't they also be living on current achievements by definition since they are undefeated?

Of course. They've not been good at all against the spread this year (4-7-1 vs. our 6-6), but they've still won every week. Were they not the 2X defending champs, I'm not sure this year's play would have earned them their current No. 1 ranking. But such a great track record going into 2023 reinforced the media and fans' perception that Georgia always will find a way to win, no matter what.

Even in close games they aren't really seen as being in trouble. I mean, they had a game last night in a rival's stadium, but nobody seemed to be on "upset alert" even when the score was close. Few other teams (Bama among them) would get that same benefit of the doubt by the fans or media. Again, it's perception rooted as much in the past few years of history as in Georgia's performance so far this fall. I just don't know if such biases subconsciously enter into the committee's thinking, whether for or against a team.

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11 minutes ago, oh_snap said:

It’s total bullshit, but unfortunately for us that’s how they’ll justify ignoring the h2h.

They won't ignore it.  If it comes down to UT or Alabama, the makeup of the committee is not going to slob Nick Saban's knob (and plenty of them have losses to him in some form or fashion).

I'm more concerned about another conference getting in over UT, because the committee has more than enough members affiliated with other conferences, that in a tight vote, will hurt us.

33 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

that SECSECSEC bias is real and bullshit. 

Normally I'd agree, but there's one active SEC team on the committee and it's Kentucky, along with R.C. Slocum (who will vote against us no matter what).  Kentucky won't have any love for Alabama, and there's plenty of committee members who if they do not downright hate the SEC/Alabama, wouldn't shed one single tear if they didn't make it in.

I'm more worried about Gene Taylor (K-State's AD) and Colorado's AD, along with the Big 10 affiliated members, fucking us over, because that's 5 right there (well maybe 4, because the former Penn State player probably has no love for Michigan or Ohio State).

It's fucking shit though, and I'm giving my Okie relatives shit for OU dropping a second game when it would have helped us out if they were one loss (plus it'd give us a chance at revenge in the CCG).

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I don’t understand how Oregon is consistently ahead of us. We have better resume as far as wins go. SOS is in our favor. Common opponent they barely beat and we PUMMELED. I don’t get it

Mainly because after we both lost close games in early/mid October they throttled teams by 14, 29, 44 then beat USC by 9 and then applied two more throttlings of 36 and 24. Their loss still hasn’t lost (while ours has stumbled twice) and we spent time dicking around with UH and TCU who are not well thought of this season.

Like it or not that is what they mean when they talk about the “eye test”.
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32 minutes ago, Majorcholas said:

I don’t understand how Oregon is consistently ahead of us. We have better resume as far as wins go. SOS is in our favor. Common opponent they barely beat and we PUMMELED. I don’t get it

 

21 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:


Mainly because after we both lost close games in early/mid October they throttled teams by 14, 29, 44 then beat USC by 9 and then applied two more throttlings of 36 and 24. Their loss still hasn’t lost (while ours has stumbled twice) and we spent time dicking around with UH and TCU who are not well thought of this season.

Like it or not that is what they mean when they talk about the “eye test”.

Yes, it’s basically due to rankings inertia where Oregon won in dominant fashion for a few weeks while we escaped with wins and that essentially set the pecking order going forward. Oregon didn’t give them any reason to question their initial relative ranking of them and Texas so it hasn’t changed. With a game against Washington it’s hard to see that changing after this week. Not impossible, but unlikely IMO.

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1 hour ago, Gut Wagon said:

Of course. They've not been good at all against the spread this year (4-7-1 vs. our 6-6), but they've still won every week. Were they not the 2X defending champs, I'm not sure this year's play would have earned them their current No. 1 ranking. But such a great track record going into 2023 reinforced the media and fans' perception that Georgia always will find a way to win, no matter what.

Even in close games they aren't really seen as being in trouble. I mean, they had a game last night in a rival's stadium, but nobody seemed to be on "upset alert" even when the score was close. Few other teams (Bama among them) would get that same benefit of the doubt by the fans or media. Again, it's perception rooted as much in the past few years of history as in Georgia's performance so far this fall. I just don't know if such biases subconsciously enter into the committee's thinking, whether for or against a team.

To be fair they started off at 2 and moved to 1 in week 3 when they throttled Mizzou and Ole Miss back to back. I would say 40-1 over 3 seasons and the current year performance earns them some benefit of the doubt, but seriously who are you ranking ahead of them right now? If you’re trying to argue them behind TX if they lose, then just go with the conference champ argument. To question their standing as of right now and argue media bias is just dumb based on any metric you look at.

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9 minutes ago, Brew said:

To be fair they started off at 2 and moved to 1 in week 3 when they throttled Mizzou and Ole Miss back to back. I would say 40-1 over 3 seasons and the current year performance earns them some benefit of the doubt, but seriously who are you ranking ahead of them right now? If you’re trying to argue them behind TX if they lose, then just go with the conference champ argument. To question their standing as of right now and argue media bias is just dumb based on any metric you look at.

They did NOT throttle Mizzou. Go check the box score again. They did throttle paper tiger Ole Miss. 

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5 hours ago, oh_snap said:

All the people quoting “the committee has never done X” are missing one critically important distinction: this is the last fucking committee for the 4-team playoff. Any new precedent they set is irrelevant to the future integrity of an already bullshit system. Fuckery will be turned up to an 11 if there’s multiple one loss teams to sort through and agendas and power will be flexed. Anything can be justified because the consequences of doing something controversial are minimal in the long run. 

That…actually sounds better for us

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Wonder if the committee would have the guts to leave out Alabama if they win next weekend but FSU, Washington, and Michigan finish undefeated conference champs and Texas wins the big 12.  Almost feel that is the best scenario for Texas.  Head to head is part of the criteria.  No amount of twisting and turning could justify putting in Alabama over Texas or undefeated P5 conference champions.  
If that happens it would strengthen our argument. Now Texas has beaten the SEC champs as well so they've earned the right to get in.
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18 hours ago, oh_snap said:

They are a 2-time defending champion that has won something crazy like 45 out of their last 46 games. Yes, each season is different, but would be hard to leave them out.
Look, no one knows for certain what the committee will do… but as a Texas fan that has watched our possible avenues to the CFP get slimmer each week as we get chalky results, I personally think the bama beating uga scenario makes it even harder. No one knows for certain though because humans are involved, and anyone saying otherwise is just your typical message board tough guy. 

Yeah, as much as we may not like it, Georgia is the only team that's in the CFP no matter what happens next week.

Which means we need Alabama and FSU to lose. 

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1 hour ago, AbraCadabra said:

Yeah, as much as we may not like it, Georgia is the only team that's in the CFP no matter what happens next week.

Which means we need Alabama and FSU to lose. 

Rooting for Georgia only makes sense if we have already (for intensive porpoises) clinched a spot.  If Georgia wins, they will be above us and Bama below; if Georgia loses, both might either be above or below us.  You root for the chaos until you have a place virtually secured, then you root for the predictable outcome.

It's the same way with Washington and Oregon. How things currently stand we want Oregon and Alabama to win. 

Edited by JBJ
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1 minute ago, UTEE97 said:

People who are hitching their wagons to our h2h win over Bama will be severely disappointed when Bama gets in over us with a win over UGA. Fair or not, that's how it will go down.

I'd this happens I hope we get Georgia in the cotton bowl , 

 

If Bama wins out I'd be talking  shit for the end of time 

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8 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Rooting for Georgia only makes sense if we have already (for intensive porpoises) clinched a spot.  If Georgia wins, they will be above us and Bama below; if Georgia loses, both might either be above or below us.  You root for the chaos until you have a place virtually secured, then you root for the predictable outcome.

It's the same way with Washington and Oregon. How things currently stand we want Oregon and Alabama to win. 

Chaos in a weak conference with only one contender is good. Chaos in a strong conference with multiple contenders is not good. There is a general perception that certain teams are elite given their recent history. For them to have a close loss doesn't sway that general perception unfortunately.

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13 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Rooting for Georgia only makes sense if we have already (for intensive porpoises) clinched a spot.  If Georgia wins, they will be above us and Bama below; if Georgia loses, both might either be above or below us.  You root for the chaos until you have a place virtually secured, then you root for the predictable outcome.

It's the same way with Washington and Oregon. How things currently stand we want Oregon and Alabama to win. 

Order of Games: Friday PM: PAC Champ, Sat AM: Big 12 Champ, Sat 3PM: SEC Champ, Sat PM: Big 10 Champ and ACC champ

For what it is worth, I dont see Bama beating Georgia. Milroe is a low IQ QB and I think they will expose that like Texas did. Georgia will only lose if they turn the ball over multiple times. 

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4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Order of Games: Friday PM: PAC Champ, Sat AM: Big 12 Champ, Sat 3PM: SEC Champ, Sat PM: Big 10 Champ and ACC champ

For what it is worth, I dont see Bama beating Georgia. Milroe is a low IQ QB and I think they will expose that like Texas did. Georgia will only lose if they turn the ball over multiple times. 

Yeah I think Alabama has the athletes and coaching to keep it close through the half, maybe even lead if they get ahead in turnovers.  But by the 4th quarter I expect Georgia to finally overpower them, and win by 10-14.

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People argue endlessly about where teams should be in the ranking, but nobody ever establishes what the ranking is supposed to represent.  Is it the best 4 teams today?  Or the best 4 teams over the course of the season?

I blame the CFP for that.  In their charter, they don't make it explicit. Sometimes one is implied, sometimes the other is.

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/11/faq
 

Quote

 

How are teams chosen?

The four teams that go to the College Football Playoff are determined by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. The selection committee chooses the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results against common opponents, championships won and other factors. 

 

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2017/9/20/selection-committee-faq

Quote

What criteria does the committee use?

The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable. The selection committee is comprised of experts in college football, and they use their expertise in the deliberations.

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol

Quote

Proposed Selection Process:
Establish a selection committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head‐to‐head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie‐breaker; apply specific guidelines).

The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non‐champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non‐champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

  • Championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

 

Conference Championship seems like the leading horse...

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7 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

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Whoever made those odds is regarded.  If Georgia loses on Saturday, they are out.  Unless the odds are Georgia has an 84% chance of winning.

How do you put them, a one loss non-conference champion, over a conference champion that also has one loss and a much better SOS?  A team that went on the road and beat by double digits the team that just beat Georgia in Atlanta, Georgia?

There is no fucking way UGA gets in if they lose Saturday to Alabama unless Texas and a couple others lose.

And Ohio State has little to no chance over Texas.

Edited by Frank Drebin
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1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

Whoever made those odds is regarded.  If Georgia loses on Saturday, they are out.  Unless the odds are Georgia has an 84% chance of winning.

How do you put them, a one loss non-conference champion, over a conference champion that also has one loss and a much better SOS?  A team that went on the road and beat by double digits the team that just beat Georgia in Atlanta, Georgia?

There is no fucking way UGA gets in if they lose Saturday to Alabama unless Texas and a couple others lose.

Also, we're in with an FSU loss. That alone is much more likely than 11%. 

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14 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

How do you put them, a one loss non-conference champion, over a conference champion that also has one loss and a much better SOS?  A team that went on the road and beat by double digits the team that just beat Georgia in Atlanta, Georgia?

 

They won’t bc the committee doesn’t do that. You win your champ game with 1 loss, you’re slotted ahead of a 1-loss non champ. Yes, hypothetically, the committee could decide 9 years of data where they continuously have valued 1 loss champions over 1 loss non champs over 2 loss champs means nothing, but it’s not very likely. 

Georgia loses, barring massive chaos in the ACC and Big 12 and Big 10, and they are out. Ohio State is out, barring major chaos in the ACC, Big 12, SEC and Big 10. And even then, 12-1 Michigan should be in before an 11-1 Ohio State, 100%. 

Sunday morning, the drama is most likely going to be 12-1 Texas or 12-1 Oregon and maybe 12-1 Alabama. I don’t have high confidence for FSU beating Louisville. Gata sucks and FSU almost lost that one. The magic ends in Charlotte without Jordan Travis. 

Edited by Js1
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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They won’t bc the committee doesn’t do that. You win your champ game with 1 loss, you’re slotted ahead of a 1-loss non champ. Yes, hypothetically, the committee could decide 9 years of data where they continuously have valued 1 loss champions over 1 loss non champs over 2 loss champs means nothing, but it’s not very likely. 

Georgia loses, barring massive chaos in the ACC and Big 12 and Big 10, and they are out. Ohio State is out, barring major chaos in the ACC, Big 12, SEC and Big 10. And even then, 12-1 Michigan should be in before an 11-1 Ohio State, 100%. 

Sunday morning, the drama is most likely going to be 12-1 Texas or 12-1 Oregon and maybe 12-1 Alabama. I don’t have high confidence for FSU beating Louisville. Gata sucks and FSU almost lost that one. The magic ends in Charlotte without Travis Hunter. 

They've gone 12-0 without Travis Hunter so I don't see where him not being in Charlotte would make a difference.

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Oregon/Washington is a play-in game. Winner goes and loser goes to a bowl. Oregon over Texas even if we win because they beat everyone on their schedule.

Yes, I know about the Tech thing as I've brought that up myself but I think this is where the committee lands. Sucks for us but I can live with that. 

If Florida State or Michigan loses then Alabama/Georgia becomes a play-in game and Texas is in with a win.

If Bama wins and Texas wins then Texas is in over Bama due to head to head. SEC honks will scream bloody murder while ignoring the fact that the Big XII champ will have beaten the SEC champ. Again, easiest decision to defend.

The only non-conference champ who has a shot is Ohio State and they would need two of Texas, Georgia, Florida State, and Michigan to lose. Maybe Georgia backs in over them. 

I think all of the undefeateds win except for Washington so the playoff will be Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, FSU. 

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I mean, I would have big issues with 12-1 Texas going over 13-0 FSU. You beat everyone on your schedule in a P5 conference and won your champ game, you’re in. 

Injuries happen and they suck. But if FSU beat 2 P5 teams with their backup, they should be in 

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I'll be interested where FSU lands in tomorrow's rankings.  They "deserve" to be #4 and I expect them to be ranked there, but are clearly not the 4th best team right now.  If the committee has them lower than 4, it obviously opens the possibility of them being left out after going undefeated.  I know it's unprecedented and I personally wouldn't agree with it, but something unprecedented is going to happen this year if Bama/Texas/FSU/Oregon all win.   

One reason I think there is a small chance of FSU getting excluded was the committee chairman making comments about considering injuries on the show a couple weeks ago.  It was a really short segment and he brought up injury considerations 2 times (but wasn't clear about how they consider them).  You really have to go back to what the committee is even trying to accomplish.  It's never been only about picking the best teams and it's not about most deserving either, it's some squishy hybrid between the 2.    

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Yeah we need FSU to lose to Louisville or some truly bizarre shit to happen.

Fortunately this is the last time we have to endure this bullshit as a one loss team. I know it has been a while since 2008 and 2004 but the garbage our 1 loss teams have had to endure is just ridiculous. So tired of it. It would be cool for things to work out just once.

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14 hours ago, BB65 said:

Texas will be ranked ahead of Oregon this week. 
 

If Oregon beats Washington in the PAC CG they will jump  Texas again. 
 

The committee can then say the criteria listed on their website worked as designed. That’s not to say Texas will not make the cfp, that will be determined by the other cc games

Texas jumping Oregon this week should be the case given our comparable victories over Tech. But alas, we live in an imperfect world so i doubt it happens.

I think the two concerns I have are:

1. If Bama beats Georgia, will the committee put both into the playoffs. I think that is very much a possibility, at which point PAC-12, Big10, and SEC are competing for the NC and Big12/ACC are left out.

2. If FSU beats Louisville, regardless of what happens in other conferences, we'll be cockblocked. 

 

IMHO, we need a decisive win over OSU, a decisive win for Georgia over Alabama, and an FSU loss. Then we'll have Washington/Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, and Texas in the playoffs.

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1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

Yeah we need FSU to lose to Louisville or some truly bizarre shit to happen.

Fortunately this is the last time we have to endure this bullshit as a one loss team. I know it has been a while since 2008 and 2004 but the garbage our 1 loss teams have had to endure is just ridiculous. So tired of it. It would be cool for things to work out just once.

Our 2004 team actually got the best deal possible.

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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