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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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2 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

If Michigan loses to Iowa and we beat Oklahoma St to win the Big 12, we should be good. Iowa obviously isn't in the mix. Ohio St is not getting in over us for a spot. Definitely need to root for Iowa. And obviously Lousiville.

SEC Champ is in, whether UGA or Alabama

PAC-12 Champ is in, whether Oregon or Washington

If Texas gets in, it will be in the slot vacated by Big 10 or ACC with a Michigan or FSU loss.

 

SEC Champ

PAC-12 Champ

ACC/Big 10 Champ

Texas

 

If BOTH FSU and Michigan lose, then that's where a 1-loss non conference champ UGA or Ohio State starts coming into play.

Texas in one of those slots and UGA/OSU in the other.

 

SEC Champ

PAC-12 Champ

Texas

UGA or Ohio State

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10 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

nah... 

a. no way SEC doesn't have representation. I think the committee would put both Bama and Georgia in the playoff and leave Big12 out - I don't agree, i just think they'd do it.

b. I think the committee would still rank a 12-1 Michigan team higher than a 12-1 Texas team (plus no way Iowa wins and Ohio State is still ranked ahead of us) - again, I don't agree, but I think that's how they'd score it.

 

 

This is a bad post and you should feel bad for making it. 

Again, never in the history of the playoff had a non-champion gone ahead of a P5 champion with the same number of losses. Never. Ever. 

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2 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

All I hear is they want the "4 best teams" in the playoffs yet all they seem to focus on is the W/L column. Bama, UT, Oregon, Wash can all be debated endlessly but NOBODY with a straight thinks FSU is a top 4 team. Not without Jordan Travis. The only eye test they have is them escaping against a 5-7 team. 

Committee chair only talked about Bo Nix and his 78% completion, when confronted with Texas having a better resume (better win, SOS, and same opponent performance), only to say FSU is more the than their QB 2 minutes later. Hard to say WTF they are looking at

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I think the only possibility of Texas jumping Oregon revolves around alabama winning this weekend (and assuming Oregon and Texas win).  This also assumes Michigan and FSU win. 

2 spots for 3 teams.  You have to make guesses on bias of committee.  I think #1 bias that has been there for last 20 years is SEC is the best conference.  Therefor Alabama gets the nod.  Then you have to hope and pray the drums are so loud that you can’t leave out a team that beat Bama.  If you discount that SEC bias, and Oregon is a lock because they beat Washington, then you have to hope that the head to head matters and can’t be discounted by “but that was week 2”.  In either scenario there is more than enough wiggle room to leave Horns out and emotionally we should prepare for that outcome.  

 

As multiple people have pointed out, safest way in for us is either a Michigan loss or FSU loss.  Otherwise get ready to get fucked.

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37 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

I’m done arguing with you dude. I even hope you’re 100% right on UGA not making it with a 3 point loss to Bama, and I pay you $100. Because that will mean we make it. But you’re extremely incapable of rational conversation. I’m not even saying you’re wrong. I’m saying I don’t know, versus your irreverent cockdaddy attitude. It’s tiresome. 

We are on the same team.

30 pages too late, my bro. 

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6 minutes ago, Hondo said:

SEC Champ is in, whether UGA or Alabama

PAC-12 Champ is in, whether Oregon or Washington

If Texas gets in, it will be in the slot vacated by Big 10 or ACC with a Michigan or FSU loss.

 

SEC Champ

PAC-12 Champ

ACC/Big 10 Champ

Texas

 

If BOTH FSU and Michigan lose, then that's where a 1-loss non conference champ UGA or Ohio State starts coming into play.

Texas in one of those slots and UGA/OSU in the other.

 

SEC Champ

PAC-12 Champ

Texas

UGA or Ohio State

I think this is wrong in that if Bama beats Georgia, Texas would ultimately get the nod over Bama for the H2H and SEC is shut out. Of course Texas could get fucked in that scenario but I think common sense would prevail. There is no justification for Bama over Texas at that point based on September's result.

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51 minutes ago, immamac said:

texas didn’t beat #1 back to back champion Georgia.

You poormouth others for being "conspiracy theorists", yet you lean on a completely untested theory yourself.  What evidence do you have that 2021 and 2022 results mean anything to the committee?

I would say the fact that UGA is #1 is enough to skew opinion towards Alabama (should they win), but you keep putting out these opinions you claim are locks when in fact we are in fairly uncharted waters this year.

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I don’t think we get in.  I’m not debating the what ifs, 100% or 0% chances/guarantees scenarios.  But, if we do get in, I want it to be by the skin of our teeth.  I want the committee to make it evident that we were reluctantly selected, but for another team losing out.  Then, I want us to win it all and shove it up their asses.

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10 hours ago, C-Man said:

Counterpoint -- scheduling Bama OOC and winning that game is the ONLY thing that really gives us a chance at getting into the playoffs this year. (Now, if we, Bama and Georgia all end up 12-1 and one or both of those go ahead of us, then yes, it will prove that scheduling games like makes little sense.)

what about 12-1 Oregon?

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Trying to find fuel to a Phil Knight/Nike Conspiracy. 

NC State- Just reupped with Addidas last year

Kentucky- Nike through 2025

Nevada- Adidas through 2024. Was Nike previuosly

Utah- Under Armour through 2027

Navy- Under Armour. Will always be 

Michigan- Nike. One of the largest Nike deals

Miami OH- Adidas? 

Nebraska- Adidas

Notre Dame- Under Armour

K State- Currently Nike but there will be a bidding "war" after this season

Virginia Union- Under Armour?

Montclair St U- Adidas

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10 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Committee chair only talked about Bo Nix and his 78% completion, when confronted with Texas having a better resume (better win, SOS, and same opponent performance), only to say FSU is more the than their QB 2 minutes later. Hard to say WTF they are looking at

Here is the answer: the committee really doesn't do any hard thinking until the final rankings. Nothing until then matters. I guarantee you that every member of this board has thought more about the rankings than the committee has until this point. They will not start seriously thinking about it until like midnight on Saturday. 

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16 minutes ago, immamac said:

I think we are finally on common ground, but this is a chaos scenario that doesn’t really have much to do with Oregon or Texas as much as it does Bama Texas. 

I know better than to think the CFP committee drops Oregon and takes Texas Bama over them. lol 

We disagree here, because now the committee is in a bind.. Usually a committee will take the path of least resistance. In that case the committee could come out and talk about SOS, which would heavily favor Bama and Texas. If the committee puts in Oregon in this scenario, they have to decide between Texas and Bama. Putting Bama in over Texas and ignoring a head to head (on the road) would be one of the most controversial decisions ever. Leaving the SEC out, would be unprecedented. The least controversial would be to say "screw it, lets go with resume and leave Oregon out" 

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4 minutes ago, 89Horn said:

I don’t think we get in.  I’m not debating the what ifs, 100% or 0% chances/guarantees scenarios.  But, if we do get in, I want it to be by the skin of our teeth.  I want the committee to make it evident that we were reluctantly selected, but for another team losing out.  Then, I want us to win it all and shove it up their asses.

Well, we don't get in without FSU losing for sure. Bama winning could throw a kink in things.

And yes, the committee absolutely does not value the Big 12 at all.

 

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Just now, Codaxx said:

We disagree here, because now the committee is in a bind.. Usually a committee will take the path of least resistance. In that case the committee could come out and talk about SOS, which would heavily favor Bama and Texas. If the committee puts in Oregon in this scenario, they have to decide between Texas and Bama. Putting Bama in over Texas and ignoring a head to head (on the road) would be one of the most controversial decisions ever. Leaving the SEC out, would be unprecedented. The least controversial would be to say "screw it, lets go with resume and leave Oregon out" 

And here's the thing... I think that would be the correct decision. Or the least bad one, in a spot where they'd be in a no-win situation. 

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what about 12-1 Oregon?

I’m looking at it on a case-by-case basis. If you replace Alabama with Portland State or Illinois or whoever on our schedule — and we still have the loss to OU — then we are behind Alabama with no H2H Trump card to help us in a tie-break situation for the CFP. I can say with certainty that the win over Bama is the single-biggest card in our hand, followed by a potential Big 12 Championship.

Oregon has this narrative going about the depth of the PAC-12 this year that kind of falls apart when you look at it now and the Ducks played all of the conference’s worst teams and lost by three at Washington. They’ve got the “style” points that OU had in 2008.
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7 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

We disagree here, because now the committee is in a bind.. Usually a committee will take the path of least resistance. In that case the committee could come out and talk about SOS, which would heavily favor Bama and Texas. If the committee puts in Oregon in this scenario, they have to decide between Texas and Bama. Putting Bama in over Texas and ignoring a head to head (on the road) would be one of the most controversial decisions ever. Leaving the SEC out, would be unprecedented. The least controversial would be to say "screw it, lets go with resume and leave Oregon out" 

Correct. And there really is no tradition of the Pac-12 being in the playoffs. No non-champion Pac 12 team has ever made the playoffs. And, of the power 5 conferences, the Pac 12 has gotten in the least amount of times. 

Pac 12 playoffs appearances: 2014 and 2016. That is it.  Notre Dame, OU, Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Ohio State have each made the playoffs at least as many times as the Pac 12 as a whole.

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10 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

All I hear is they want the "4 best teams" in the playoffs yet all they seem to focus on is the W/L column. Bama, UT, Oregon, Wash can all be debated endlessly but NOBODY with a straight thinks FSU is a top 4 team. Not without Jordan Travis. The only eye test they have is them escaping against a 5-7 team. 

It's because they're using different sets of criteria. If you're an undefeated P5 team then you're in. If you're a 1-loss team then it's simply a matter of who the committee likes more. They like UO most because Nix has looked incredible & they're giving the benefit of the doubt to the PAC this year (for some reason beyond our mere mortal comprehension). They like OSU more than UT for reasons that were unexplained but that one doesn't include completion percentage since QE has a better one than McCord. The B1G has gotten the benefit of the doubt since the CFP inception so I'm guessing that's why.

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6 hours ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

In the 12 team playoff era, playing tough OOC games will probably be more beneficial from a team development standpoint. Teams will start taking more of an NFL mindset of prepping for the "real season" instead of focusing so much on the beauty contest. 

They rank teams by number of losses just like in the poll era.  look at 1-12 right now.  chalk down to #13 LSU 9-3 and #14 Louisville 10-2.  and that is only because LSU is SEC and Louisville is in the shittiest P5 conf.

you don't get credit for SOS(even if it is 40-50 spots different and a team above you played FCS Portland State) obviously.  It would take too much brain power for these morons on the CFP committee to look at that.

There is no reason whatsoever to give yourself a chance at a loss in games you get to pick to play.

and I'm not sure what you mean about NFL mindset.  The NFL office sets the games and the starters hardly even play in the preseason games.

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11 minutes ago, C-Man said:

I think this is wrong in that if Bama beats Georgia, Texas would ultimately get the nod over Bama for the H2H and SEC is shut out. Of course Texas could get fucked in that scenario but I think common sense would prevail. There is no justification for Bama over Texas at that point based on September's result.

I don't disagree with the rationale.  I simply don't see them leaving the 1-loss SEC champ out of the playoff. 

A CFP without "2x Defending National Champion UGA" or the "1-loss team that knocked off the 2x Defending National Champion UGA to win the SECCG" ... which in this case is already "Nick Saban's Alabama"...?  File it under "things that are probably not gonna happen" for whatever the reason.

Obviously, that's a situation where I'll be thrilled to be proven wrong.

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

For those that want to say but what about 1 loss Oregon Alabama and Texas!!! 
 

texas didn’t beat #1 back to back champion Georgia. There is no fucking world where I would even pick the longhorns to go over Alabama in that scenario. Stop it. 
 

Texas plays #18 OK State. And Lost to #14 Oklahoma or something. 

Alabama plays #1 and lost to #7 

Oregon Lost to #3 and can revenge it. 

this isn’t fucking hard stop being conspiracy theorists. We aren’t playing undefeated #2 Oklahoma in a revenge game. 

Completely disagree with this take.  If Bama beats Georgia, Georgia would then be ranked behind Alabama.  Texas would have a win on the road by double digits against the higher ranked team.  Also I don't think the committee will set the precedent that head to head doesn't matter.  If they do that, there is no reason to play tough OOC games for any power 5 team anymore.  Everyone should pull an SEC and schedule at least 2 FCS teams, and 2 games against bottom feeders.  

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3 minutes ago, hook me said:

It's because they're using different sets of criteria. If you're an undefeated P5 team then you're in. If you're a 1-loss team then it's simply a matter of who the committee likes more. They like UO most because Nix has looked incredible & they're giving the benefit of the doubt to the PAC this year (for some reason beyond our mere mortal comprehension). They like OSU more than UT for reasons that were unexplained but that one doesn't include completion percentage since QE has a better one than McCord. The B1G has gotten the benefit of the doubt since the CFP inception so I'm guessing that's why.

This one's just a throwaway for clicks and eyeballs.  tOSU is done at 12 games, they're 11-1 and they can't do anything to change their position.  If Texas beats OkState then Texas has an extra win and a conference championship, which immediately puts Texas above tOSU.  If Texas loses then the Horns are a 2-loss non-champ that would be behind Ohio State regardless.  Ohio State's position is completely irrelevant with respect to Texas' chances at the CFP.

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24 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

30 pages too late, my bro. 

This time I really really really mean it. 

23 minutes ago, C-Man said:

I think this is wrong in that if Bama beats Georgia, Texas would ultimately get the nod over Bama for the H2H and SEC is shut out. Of course Texas could get fucked in that scenario but I think common sense would prevail. There is no justification for Bama over Texas at that point based on September's result.

Not only will this not happen (SEC ain’t getting left out), but I also don’t personally agree with it. 

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12 minutes ago, C-Man said:


I’m looking at it on a case-by-case basis. If you replace Alabama with Portland State or Illinois or whoever on our schedule — and we still have the loss to OU — then we are behind Alabama with no H2H Trump card to help us in a tie-break situation for the CFP. I can say with certainty that the win over Bama is the single-biggest card in our hand, followed by a potential Big 12 Championship.

Oregon has this narrative going about the depth of the PAC-12 this year that kind of falls apart when you look at it now and the Ducks played all of the conference’s worst teams and lost by three at Washington. They’ve got the “style” points that OU had in 2008.

my point is that we should already be above Oregon based on SOS difference of 40 spots+ with the same record and loss to OU.  we beat the other teams on our schedule which was much harder.  If Oregon plays our schedule they lose 2 games at least.

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PAC 12 winner is in (horseshit but it is what it is)

SEC winner is in

FSU is in if they win. 


Michigan is in if they win. (They aren’t losing)
 

So it’s basically all down to the ACC championship for us. I don’t think they would put in one loss Georgia over us since they didn’t win their conference. 

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10 minutes ago, chemHORN said:

 I don't think the committee will set the precedent that head to head doesn't matter.  If they do that, there is no reason to play tough OOC games for any power 5 team anymore.  

I hear this a lot. Honest question.. Does the precedent matter anymore after this year? Will the playoffs next year be selected the same way?  or will the debate next year just be 11,12,13 seeds and H2H etc?

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Just now, joeycovers said:

I hear this a lot. Honest question.. Does the precedent matter anymore after this year? Will the playoffs next year be selected the same way?  or will the debate next year just be 11,12,13 seeds and H2H etc?

The answer will be the same as it is now.  Sometimes there will be no head to head to consider, and sometimes it will matter for those last few spots.  The 12 team playoff will still have discussions like this it will just be further down the list.  

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2 minutes ago, Jersey Man10 said:

We’re gonna lose to Ok State anyway so none of this matters.

Ha!  Certainly possible, of course.

I have been wondering when someone was going to chime in with some brilliance like, "I sure hope the team is more focused on OkState than the fans are."

 

 

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2 minutes ago, BlackCat said:

PAC 12 winner is in (horseshit but it is what it is)

SEC winner is in

FSU is in if they win. 


Michigan is in if they win. (They aren’t losing)
 

So it’s basically all down to the ACC championship for us. I don’t think they would put in one loss Georgia over us since they didn’t win their conference. 

so this is what was pissing me off earlier because people are conflating a few things that aren't necessarily true and I was rightfully flamed for this because I was arguing a different argument (specifically against Oregon v Texas getting in)

Pac12 winner is in (committee fuckery, but whatever it's a known thing) <-- This is where people are trying to debate, but it makes no sense at all for THIS SPECIFIC COMMITTEE to not put one of these 2 teams in. Leaving FSU out is easier than not putting one of them in. 

MICH B1G winner is in with win, which is more of a rubber stamp than anything anyway <-- You lose to the worst offense in the NCAA you don't get to play with the big boys. Won't happen, but needs to be said. 

FSU ACC winner is most likely in with win, but it's not certain because they are so dogshit and played a joke of a schedule and don't have their MVP. <-- This cleans up a lot of the debate and only makes FSU big mad, but who cares fuck them.

SEC winner in with GA win, questionable with Alabama win because of H2H with Texas. <-- This is where the real debate lies, do you ignore the H2H and if so, why? 

I think the thread has gotten to the debate that matters now instead of "OMFG OREGON AND tOSU AHEAD OF TEXAS LGKNBOLIKHNEQWOPINHLSBHJZ"

 

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33 minutes ago, C-Man said:

I think this is wrong in that if Bama beats Georgia, Texas would ultimately get the nod over Bama for the H2H and SEC is shut out. Of course Texas could get fucked in that scenario but I think common sense would prevail. There is no justification for Bama over Texas at that point based on September's result.

Yep, it would be same criteria of why Texas gets in over 1 loss Georgia, Texas would have Conf championship. Georgia would have better loss, but wouldn't matter.

Conf champ is 1 of 4 criteria when comparing close teams. H2H is another and why we would get in before Bama.

It would be like us arguing against a 1 loss OU for CCG... but we beat Bama and OU going but we beat you.

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11 minutes ago, utee94 said:

This one's just a throwaway for clicks and eyeballs.  tOSU is done at 12 games, they're 11-1 and they can't do anything to change their position.  If Texas beats OkState then Texas has an extra win and a conference championship, which immediately puts Texas above tOSU.  If Texas loses then the Horns are a 2-loss non-champ that would be behind Ohio State regardless.  Ohio State's position is completely irrelevant with respect to Texas' chances at the CFP.

By slotting OSU between us the committee has made its plan clear w/ regards to championship weekend. For those saying "these rankings don't matter until the last one" you're just wrong because the committee is going to base their next set of rankings off of this one + new results. Will we jump OSU with a win? Most likely yes, but they've eliminated any debate that we could have had over whether or not we could win impressively enough to jump UO should they win in an ugly manner. Their reasoning? Because UO dispatched of Oregon St. with ease which is another PAC team that the committee really respects. How do we know that? Because they were ranked 11 a couple of weeks ago before their close loss to UW (and because the CFP chair literally said so). The committee isn't setting us up for a complete upheaval of the top 5 this week unless complete chaos ensues. We know exactly where everyone stands & the only result that may change things is a Bama upset over UGA. Otherwise you're going to get UM, UW/UO, FSU/UT, & UGA. And UT better not limp to the finish line vs. OKST because it's pretty clear that they don't respect UTs SOS as it is.

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29 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

They rank teams by number of losses just like in the poll era.  look at 1-12 right now.  chalk down to #13 LSU 9-3 and #14 Louisville 10-2.  and that is only because LSU is SEC and Louisville is in the shittiest P5 conf.

you don't get credit for SOS(even if it is 40-50 spots different and a team above you played FCS Portland State) obviously.  It would take too much brain power for these morons on the CFP committee to look at that.

There is no reason whatsoever to give yourself a chance at a loss in games you get to pick to play.

and I'm not sure what you mean about NFL mindset.  The NFL office sets the games and the starters hardly even play in the preseason games.

I meant that in the sense that it's acknowledged that even the best NFL teams are going to have a loss or two in the regular season.

With the new super conferences, I think the result is going to be that the big boys start taking a loss or two more than has been normal historically; due to the fact that they're in a conference with even more big boys (still nowhere near the parity in the NFL, obviously). With the 12 team playoff, however, having a single loss isn't going to keep any team in the new SEC or Big 10 out of the playoffs. 

In this case, from a team development standpoint, I'm thinking that scheduling a premier OOC opponent could prove beneficial down the line in the playoffs. 

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6 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is the correct scenario for everyone to be rooting for. 

image.png.cd61bf33a0b5f0d8ddc4a195cb6e9465.png

Texas is out of the top 4 currently, so they need spots to open up. Texas fans should root against every undefeated team, because there is  0 argument for Texas to get in over a undefeated team (maybe with FSU, snowballs chance in hell type o thing).. Rooting for Michigan and Washington does not help.. Texas fans need to root for Iowa, Oregon, and Bama. Chaos is a friend of Texas

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42 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You poormouth others for being "conspiracy theorists", yet you lean on a completely untested theory yourself.  What evidence do you have that 2021 and 2022 results mean anything to the committee?

Look at the results for 2023 Georgia and explain why they're ranked #1.

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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