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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

I enjoy Selzer trashing and throwing shade at Emerson this morning.  Said they're manipulating the data with their own assumptions about the electorate makeup in a way that helps Trump, instead of just taking the data at face value. 

I think she knows that these pollsters are getting more favorable numbers for Harris until they start messing with the numbers.  

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Posted
18 minutes ago, immamac said:

What? There's a huge uptick in 18-29 nearly everywhere. 

2020 was historic in the youth vote, so comparison shouldn't be a surprise.  It's like saying barry bonds 2002 was definitely worse than his 2001.  But this is the tenor of stuff I feel like I see a lot of:

 

Quote

Over 211,000 voters ages 18-24 have voted so far in the 2024 election, but young voters aren’t turning out to vote in the same fashion they turned out four years ago.

While young voters often lean more liberal, they are also more difficult to get to the polls. Total turnout among young adults, which Democrats often target on account of the group’s left-of-center tendencies, is down by 45,000 voters from this point in the 2020 election cycle. 

https://www.carolinajournal.com/nc-young-voter-trends-show-higher-republican-turnout-dems-down-37k/

Posted
1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

2020 was historic in the youth vote, so comparison shouldn't be a surprise.  It's like saying barry bonds 2002 was definitely worse than his 2001.  But this is the tenor of stuff I feel like I see a lot of:

 

https://www.carolinajournal.com/nc-young-voter-trends-show-higher-republican-turnout-dems-down-37k/

You're also looking at the full 2020 data and only partial 2024 data (just early, no E-Day voting) 

I beg so many of you, please worry about your post-mortems until late November.  Can we finish up through tomorrow, first? 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

If you want to attempt a coup then you are risking your life. Make that clear, and make it clear very early on. That's how this is handled quickly.

 

12 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Biden seems personally angry at these people and I suspect he'll give the order to shoot on sight if there's any fuckery.  

Good.

And, thanks to SCOTUS gargling Trump's balls, with immunity! 

Edited by Tonesky
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Agreed. I'm actually more worried about the day the states certify individually, around mid December, as days where individual statehouses could get overrun. Going to need a well coordinated law enforcement effort to show enough force to keep the idiots from going full Darwin, or at least to send them to meet Darwin if they do. 

Also, Biden and his DOJ officials need to have a sit down with Mike Johnson and make very clear the consequences of dragging an insurrection this time will be far worse than last time. Show you're prepared for their bullshit. 

If they're scared to go that route the only other route is flooding the courts but, even with all those trump judges still floating around, I think that gets shut down. Especially if the rubes are restless and on the verge of lashing out. 

For all of individually in Texas, I recommend carrying everywhere you legally can just in case. My .40 hasn't left my side since Friday morning. 

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

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Posted
1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Sounds plausible, but would love an actual source on this other than "The Halfway Post".

Stop being a bitch

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Happy I Love You GIF by Warner Bros. Deutschland

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Posted

So Chili's got rid of the orginal mozzarella sticks, the original chicken crispers, the ground peppercorn hamberder, the turkey sandwich, and the chocolate shake? Who has been in charge all these years? 

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

The problem with a Civil War is I don't even know what exactly we would be fighting over.

In any case it would be short. Whomever the military sides with would win almost immediately.

It wouldn't be a civil war in the classic sense. America is far too large, diverse, and technically advanced for that. 

Think more along the lines of Ireland's "Troubles". Guerilla warfare, terrorist attacks, and attempted political assassination. 

Last time gutted idiot groups like proud boys and oath keepers, but much smaller groups like that could be lurking in the shadows keeping their heads down for now because they saw what happened last time. Then you have the lone wolf types looking to create mayhem that are harder to track if they aren't idiots on social media. 

I'm hopeful this isn't the case, but I'm also realistic. All of trump's rhetoric recently is violent and setting this up. Killing Liz Cheney, killing the media reporters, calling it rigged already, etc. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I enjoy Selzer trashing and throwing shade at Emerson this morning.  Said they're manipulating the data with their own assumptions about the electorate makeup in a way that helps Trump, instead of just taking the data at face value. 

I think she knows that these pollsters are getting more favorable numbers for Harris until they start messing with the numbers.  

I've always thought her best observation was when she points out these pollster are always using the last election to make things fit instead of looking where things are going.

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Posted
Just now, Da Fino said:

So Chili's got rid of the orginal mozzarella sticks, the original chicken crispers, the ground peppercorn hamberder, the turkey sandwich, and the chocolate shake? Who has been in charge all these years? 

The new mozzarella sticks are superior. I always thought the original chicken crispers were not very crisper. 

Who gives a shit about ground peppercorn hamberder, you got the 3 for me mother fucker!

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, G650 said:

I've always thought her best observation was when she points out these pollster are always using the last election to make things fit instead of looking where things are going.

Yes, she has mentioned specifically she just asks "are you voting this year?" and doesn't really worry about if you voted in the last election, or last 2 elections, etc.

That's basically how she got Trump 2016 and Obama 2008 caucus results. 

Edit: 

Even Silver has called out Emerson for being the biggest herders in the industry. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
seems to be low yute participation compared to 2020 so far.  expected, imo.  but do we want the kids to vote, given that the olds seem to be sliding left and the trump campaign strategy is basically to get rogan bros?
I spent two weeks practically begging a 25 year old college educated white male to vote. He insisted he couldn't choose between the two. Best I could get was him promising to vote down ballot. He's not a Rogan bro from what I can tell, some of the youth are just baffling.
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Posted
18 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Minor point. But a "cuck" would know, that's the point of their fetish. The entire point of Cheung's attempt at an insult is negated, just like the disaster of a campaign he works for will be tomorrow. 

I guess you could argue that in public, but then you're just gonna be that guy in your neighborhood that is an expert in cuckoldry.

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Posted
1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

The new mozzarella sticks are superior. I always thought the original chicken crispers were not very crisper. 

Who gives a shit about ground peppercorn hamberder, you got the 3 for me mother fucker!

Fair. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

If the Senate is going to be 51+ Dem on Jan. 6, sure. There won't be a VP if she's POTUS, so a 50/50 split or worse only invites more fuckery.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

Yep.  After all, Harris has said that an intruder in her home is getting shot.  I don't think she'd fuck around with another insurrection.

Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Trump campaign:

Low energy
Empty rallies
Rushing out memos and polls from junk pollsters to offset Selzer, or even fake polls (Ryan Fournier)
"Please vote or I'm in big trouble"
Relying on the lowest propensity voters (young men) to show up and save him
Already calling it rigged, Dems cheating, etc.
Already having campaign leaks shifting blame
Insiders in the GOP already blasting warning bells about women/senior women abandoning Trump
No ground game

Harris campaign:

Big (dick) energy
Packed rallies in swing states
No leaking, no backstabbing (yet)
Know they have the highest propensity voters banked already (older women, young women, college educated voters, black voters)
Pure confidence from the likes of Nancy Pelosi, David Plouffe, etc. 
No one sounding the warnings about lack of enthusiasm, ground game, etc. (no 2016 Debbie Dingell sounding the alarms)
Such a huge ground game, they've had to turn away people 

Counter Argument - Sushi

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Minor point. But a "cuck" would know, that's the point of their fetish. The entire point of Cheung's attempt at an insult is negated, just like the disaster of a campaign he works for will be tomorrow. 

I feel certain Steven Cheung knows the cuck world pretty well. 

 

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Posted

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Helobious said:

Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day.

Things said in October 2020 when she released her poll that went fully against the polling CW that Iowa was in play for Biden. 

(I also said that, and I was 100% wrong) 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
8 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

Ironically this would be a bad idea. This is one of those few times the Vice President is important.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Ellellelle said:
36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:
seems to be low yute participation compared to 2020 so far.  expected, imo.  but do we want the kids to vote, given that the olds seem to be sliding left and the trump campaign strategy is basically to get rogan bros?

I spent two weeks practically begging a 25 year old college educated white male to vote. He insisted he couldn't choose between the two. Best I could get was him promising to vote down ballot. He's not a Rogan bro from what I can tell, some of the youth are just baffling.

Considering how fucked our culture has become, it's not that baffling. Among many other terrible turns we have taken, the normalization of Trumps antics, the tolerance of the emergence of head-shaking groups like incels and the prevalence of "making libs cry" as a theory of governance has to be quite confusing for young people.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I guess you could argue that in public, but then you're just gonna be that guy in your neighborhood that is an expert in cuckoldry.

So your logic is that knowing what a nazi is makes me a nazi. Good one. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

It is misrepresenting the situation to suggest we are only talking about one poll result and nothing else. 

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Posted

Where are the actual new voters coming from for trump? We've been over this. It isn't from women of any color. The campaign has made that extremely clear, he's self admittedly doing poorly with women and he's running against a woman. Someone explain to me how the fuck this makes any sense to anyone? 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

It is misrepresenting the situation to suggest we are only talking about one poll result and nothing else. 

Also the conversation if her poll was Trump +7 or better would be totally different, because it is more “in line” with that pollsters think the election will go 

Just now, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

No, we do this in solidarity. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Ellellelle said:
45 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:
seems to be low yute participation compared to 2020 so far.  expected, imo.  but do we want the kids to vote, given that the olds seem to be sliding left and the trump campaign strategy is basically to get rogan bros?

I spent two weeks practically begging a 25 year old college educated white male to vote. He insisted he couldn't choose between the two. Best I could get was him promising to vote down ballot. He's not a Rogan bro from what I can tell, some of the youth are just baffling.

Youth is wasted on the young.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

When Dotard starts in with his "Come to DC on January 6th and fight like hell!" stuff he should probably be arrested. 

He's not going to do that.  He'll just say the election is stolen, a few people around the country will take it upon themselves to vote from the rooftops towards their nearest federal building.  The federal government will provide the FO to their FA.  At that point, it gets very dangerous.  I mean, what if, at that point, a couple people that own social media platforms start saying that response by the federal government is the start of "christian/white genocide"?

I have a growing fear that the real goal being worked towards by some very influential people is to ensure an infuriating loss to millions.   So those angry and terrified voters act out with enough critical mass to serve as a black swan event to wreck Wall Street and the economy/dollar.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

No. 



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