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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
18 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

C'mon Helo, just tell us there's no way she can win Florida.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Pennsylvania weekend firewall:

D-R: 409k

D-R + 70-30 indie split: 492k

One final drop tomorrow of the mail should get it to 500k? 

Not built to be, but I did see a poll over the weekend from UNH that had ME-02 48-44 Trump.  

What's the EV total at now?  You have a link to the data?

Posted
6 minutes ago, immamac said:

Where are the actual new voters coming from for trump? We've been over this. It isn't from women of any color. The campaign has made that extremely clear, he's self admittedly doing poorly with women and he's running against a woman. Someone explain to me how the fuck this makes any sense to anyone? 

It doesn't. He's probably gained some minority men he didn't have last time, but he's also lost a lot of men he did have last time. 

These polls are almost all just people attributing whatever they believe will be true to any data set they get. It's the epitome of poisoning your data. Instead of just releasing what they are getting they start bastardizing the results to make it closely aligned to what they saw in 2020. Completely ignoring an insurrection, credit for the most unpopular supreme court fuckery of our lifetimes, being convicted of a multitude of felonies, indicted federally, and stealing classified info that still hasn't been returned (and probably sold to our enemies) have all occured by trump since the last vote of 2020 was cast. 

I imagine the data a lot of them are getting is showing Harris destroys him and they're uncomfortable with that because of 2016. 

12 minutes ago, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

Just go sit at the bar, order some chips and salsa and a Presidente Margarita, and celebrate. Nobody says you have to eat their food. 

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Posted

Forget all the election betting as an indicator.

Brinker International Stock Price today is at $107.68, up $2.76 per share.  

 

Case closed.  

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You're also looking at the full 2020 data and only partial 2024 data (just early, no E-Day voting) 

I beg so many of you, please worry about your post-mortems until late November.  Can we finish up through tomorrow, first? 

 

31 minutes ago, C-Man said:

The Proud Boys Have Regrouped and Are Signaling Election Plans

Obligatory 'this is fine'

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/the-proud-boys-have-regrouped-and-are-signaling-election-plans-de7a1f45

 


 

 

31 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

 

30 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

It wouldn't be a civil war in the classic sense. America is far too large, diverse, and technically advanced for that.

Think more along the lines of Ireland's "Troubles". Guerilla warfare, terrorist attacks, and attempted political assassination. 

Last time gutted idiot groups like proud boys and oath keepers, but much smaller groups like that could be lurking in the shadows keeping their heads down for now because they saw what happened last time. Then you have the lone wolf types looking to create mayhem that are harder to track if they aren't idiots on social media. 

I'm hopeful this isn't the case, but I'm also realistic. All of trump's rhetoric recently is violent and setting this up. Killing Liz Cheney, killing the media reporters, calling it rigged already, etc. 

 

16 minutes ago, Goredho said:

So those angry and terrified voters act out with enough critical mass to serve as a black swan event to wreck Wall Street and the economy/dollar.

This isn't going to be Red Dawn. The Proud Boys and associated fucks fled DC after J6 last time. Trump didn't bail them out. They know that they don't have the big guns, the military does. And Biden controls the military.

Last time, DC did NOTHING to prepare for this shit even though it was obvious shit was going go down. We had an office 6 blocks from the WH. We'd never before or since closed for non-holiday/weather reasons. We closed J6 because we knew there would be trouble and that DC was unprepared.

DC is already prepping for this shit this time. If the fucks want shit, they're going to get it in the face. Think 49-0.

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Posted
1 minute ago, quigley said:

 

 

 

 

This isn't going to be Red Dawn. The Proud Boys and associated fucks fled DC after J6 last time. Trump didn't bail them out. They know that they don't have the big guns, the military does. And Biden controls the military.

Last time, DC did NOTHING to prepare for this shit even though it was obvious shit was going go down. We had an office 6 blocks from the WH. We'd never before or since closed for non-holiday/weather reasons. We closed J6 because we knew there would be trouble and that DC was unprepared.

DC is already prepping for this shit this time. If the fucks want shit, they're going to get it in the face. Think 49-0.

Insurrection is a bad idea. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, quigley said:

 

 

 

 

This isn't going to be Red Dawn. The Proud Boys and associated fucks fled DC after J6 last time. Trump didn't bail them out. They know that they don't have the big guns, the military does. And Biden controls the military.

Last time, DC did NOTHING to prepare for this shit even though it was obvious shit was going go down. We had an office 6 blocks from the WH. We'd never before or since closed for non-holiday/weather reasons. We closed J6 because we knew there would be trouble and that DC was unprepared.

DC is already prepping for this shit this time. If the fucks want shit, they're going to get it in the face. Think 49-0.

Yep. DC is already prepping. They fortified the WH/VP’s residence basically over the weekend. 

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Posted
47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You're also looking at the full 2020 data and only partial 2024 data (just early, no E-Day voting) 

I beg so many of you, please worry about your post-mortems until late November.  Can we finish up through tomorrow, first? 

This, party registration and early vote don’t mean shit.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Forget all the election betting as an indicator.

Brinker International Stock Price today is at $107.68, up $2.76 per share.  

 

Case closed.  

Explain this to me like I am stupid. 
 

 

spoiler alert 

Posted
30 minutes ago, Goredho said:

He's not going to do that.  He'll just say the election is stolen, a few people around the country will take it upon themselves to vote from the rooftops towards their nearest federal building.  The federal government will provide the FO to their FA.  At that point, it gets very dangerous.  I mean, what if, at that point, a couple people that own social media platforms start saying that response by the federal government is the start of "christian/white genocide"?

I have a growing fear that the real goal being worked towards by some very influential people is to ensure an infuriating loss to millions.   So those angry and terrified voters act out with enough critical mass to serve as a black swan event to wreck Wall Street and the economy/dollar.

I think you overestimate the resolve of the average MAGA.  They'll bitch and whine on social media, but you had about what?  1,000 psychos for Jan 6?  I think one of the biggest reasons we won't see a second civil war is because of how comfortable the average American is, regardless of political affiliation or election results.

Too many of these folks are nothing more than keyboard warriors.  Plus, as you can see evidence of all over the place, the MAGA movement is just running out of steam on many fronts.  I'm sure some idiots will try to do something, but there won't be anywhere near enough coordination or scale to create the Black Swan event you're fearing.  IMO.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Look, I'm not a fan of it in terms I wish none of this stuff would happen. But if they riot again the easy solution is to Ashli Babbitt someone much more quickly this time. Once that happened they figured shit out real fast. I'm pretty confident this will happen on January 6th, 2025 because they're already designating it a national security event. The question is if they'll react accordingly in other locations on other dates.

If you want to attempt a coup then you are risking your life. Make that clear, and make it clear very early on. That's how this is handled quickly.

This.  This is how it must be responded to, with no hesitation.  Babbitt 10 people at once, and it all ends.

53 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Agreed. I'm actually more worried about the day the states certify individually, around mid December, as days where individual statehouses could get overrun. Going to need a well coordinated law enforcement effort to show enough force to keep the idiots from going full Darwin, or at least to send them to meet Darwin if they do. 

Also, Biden and his DOJ officials need to have a sit down with Mike Johnson and make very clear the consequences of dragging an insurrection this time will be far worse than last time. Show you're prepared for their bullshit. 

If they're scared to go that route the only other route is flooding the courts but, even with all those trump judges still floating around, I think that gets shut down. Especially if the rubes are restless and on the verge of lashing out. 

For all of individually in Texas, I recommend carrying everywhere you legally can just in case. My .40 hasn't left my side since Friday morning. 

Yep.  Gotta be willing to Babbitt people nationwide.  Show up intent on overthrowing the government and take violent action to do so?  Game over for you.

34 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Or..

 

Merle, and esp Rainbow Stew, will always get rep.

30 minutes ago, Goredho said:

He's not going to do that.  He'll just say the election is stolen, a few people around the country will take it upon themselves to vote from the rooftops towards their nearest federal building.  The federal government will provide the FO to their FA.  At that point, it gets very dangerous.  I mean, what if, at that point, a couple people that own social media platforms start saying that response by the federal government is the start of "christian/white genocide"?

I have a growing fear that the real goal being worked towards by some very influential people is to ensure an infuriating loss to millions.   So those angry and terrified voters act out with enough critical mass to serve as a black swan event to wreck Wall Street and the economy/dollar.

And this is definitely the high-end concern.  These fucking idiots truly don't realize that they are on track to wreck literally everything they claim to love.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, quigley said:

 

 

 

 

This isn't going to be Red Dawn. The Proud Boys and associated fucks fled DC after J6 last time. Trump didn't bail them out. They know that they don't have the big guns, the military does. And Biden controls the military.

Last time, DC did NOTHING to prepare for this shit even though it was obvious shit was going go down. We had an office 6 blocks from the WH. We'd never before or since closed for non-holiday/weather reasons. We closed J6 because we knew there would be trouble and that DC was unprepared.

DC is already prepping for this shit this time. If the fucks want shit, they're going to get it in the face. Think 49-0.

 

4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think you overestimate the resolve of the average MAGA.  They'll bitch and whine on social media, but you had about what?  1,000 psychos for Jan 6?  I think one of the biggest reasons we won't see a second civil war is because of how comfortable the average American is, regardless of political affiliation or election results.

Too many of these folks are nothing more than keyboard warriors.  Plus, as you can see evidence of all over the place, the MAGA movement is just running out of steam on many fronts.  I'm sure some idiots will try to do something, but there won't be anywhere near enough coordination or scale to create the Black Swan event you're fearing.  IMO.

I hope you both are correct and that I am wrong as fuck or that if such an attempt is in the works, it fails miserably.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  This is how it must be responded to, with no hesitation.  Babbitt 10 people at once, and it all ends.

Yep.  Gotta be willing to Babbitt people nationwide.  Show up intent on overthrowing the government and take violent action to do so?  Game over for you.

Merle, and esp Rainbow Stew, will always get rep.

And this is definitely the high-end concern.  These fucking idiots truly don't realize that they are on track to wreck literally everything they claim to love.

@Al_4_ISU is right. If the fucks want to die, a few will. Quickly.  There will not be mass turmoil this time.

This is what the FAFO emoji is for.

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Posted (edited)

There really is an enthusiasm gap this time around. I was in the very trumpy south suburbs this weekend and saw several Harris Walz signs and only one Trump. Granted on the east side I saw the whole trump flag with multiple signs cult shit at one house but that might be the only potential insurrectionist left in town. 

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This is why you don’t outsource your ground game to Elon

We're counting our Chili's chickens too early. You were right in saying wait until tomorrow (or more likely Wednesday) and play through the whistle.

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Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

There really is an enthusiasm gap this time around. I was in the very trumpy south suburbs this weekend and saw several Harris Walz signs and only one Trump. Granted on the east side I saw the whole flag multiple signs cult shit at one house but that might be the only potential insurrectionist left in town. 

This is the thing about cults.  They almost never survive beyond the vitality of their central figure.  Trump looks like a robot who's batteries are running out of juice.  He's not the firebrand he was 8, or even 4 years ago.  He's a tired old man that rambles, goes to bed early, and shits himself.  He's not cut out to lead an insurrection anymore.

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Posted
I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

You and Morris may be right. But what Selzer is telling me is that under a different set of assumptions-that are realistic and supported by a very respected pollster - Harris wins in a landslide. And yeah, that’s a data point that is aligning with my gut. It aligns with other data points that I admittedly filter for, because it matches my gut. But it’s still a valid, compelling data point.

(Worth noting that extrapolating from other IA polls, she still wins the election, but much tighter.)
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Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

There really is an enthusiasm gap this time around. I was in the very trumpy south suburbs this weekend and saw several Harris Walz signs and only one Trump. Granted on the east side I saw the whole flag multiple signs cult shit at one house but that might be the only potential insurrectionist left in town. 

What bout your enthusiasm for explosive diarrhea? I KNOW there's a Chilis close enough to you. I haven't been in decade but am willing to make the ultimate a significant sacrifice.

Join me in the shared pain of victory!

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Posted
1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

This is the thing about cults.  They almost never survive beyond the vitality of their central figure.  Trump looks like a robot who's batteries are running out of juice.  He's not the firebrand he was 8, or even 4 years ago.  He's a tired old man that rambles, goes to bed early, and shits himself.  He's not cut out to lead an insurrection anymore.

He looks and sounds like shit this morning 

Bret Stephens says Trump will win. So congrats Kamala!

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Posted
3 minutes ago, quigley said:

What bout your enthusiasm for explosive diarrhea? I KNOW there's a Chilis close enough to you. I haven't been in decade but am willing to make the ultimate a significant sacrifice.

Join me in the shared pain of victory!

Ugh, fine, if that’s what it takes. I have some Pepto left over from my last unfortunate chain restaurant experience.

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Posted
53 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

I sometimes wonder what would happen if Helo invoked the George Constanza opposite rule with his life.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Ugh, fine, if that’s what it takes. I have some Pepto left over from my last unfortunate chain restaurant experience.

Joining Welcome Home GIF

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Posted
8 minutes ago, quigley said:

We're counting our Chili's chickens too early. You were right in saying wait until tomorrow (or more likely Wednesday) and play through the whistle.

This is what I am and have been saying.

We don't know shit about fuck.

This entire timeline has been shit, we really have no basis to think/hope that it will change, unless and until it does.

5 minutes ago, quigley said:

What bout your enthusiasm for explosive diarrhea? I KNOW there's a Chilis close enough to you. I haven't been in decade but am willing to make the ultimate a significant sacrifice.

Join me in the shared pain of victory!

Who the FUCK are you namby pamby weaklings?  Your system can't handle freaking CHILI'S?  SEE, IT'S WEAKLINGS LIKE YOU WHO HAVE CURSED THIS COUNTRY.  MAN UP, EAT SOME CHIPS AND SALSA, SOME SW EGG ROLLS, AND A PRETTY DECENT BURGER!  DO IT FOR AMERICA.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

This came out this weekend but I was waiting for Jim Schutze to confirm the school. Apparently, it was a homecoming party for kids at Shelton, a North Dallas private school that mainly specializes in kids with "learning differences" of all kinds. It ain't cheap. Annual tuition is reportedly $32,900, making it the third-highest priced private school in Dallas behind Greenhill and ESD. The real kicker is that this homecoming party was held at the residence of one Kristal Roberts, a declared candidate for Dallas City Council. She denies knowing about the sign, sharing those views and said she would not have allowed the photo to be made if she were aware.

(Interesting note: Schutze is a long-time newspaper reporter/editor/columnist who penned the book "Bully" that was made into a movie that starred Brad Renfro and Nick Stahl.)

Screenshot2024-11-04at10_47_39AM.thumb.png.170fba5c64a599cbe55d430e166412d0.png

 

Screenshot2024-11-04at10_47_29AM.thumb.png.2c13f70a08a4d9b7437625ea8471f083.png

Translation: I'll say that this isn't my style right now, today.  But as soon as the election is over, and I need to curry more favor with the MAGAs, I'll proudly say this is what we believe, and we stand behind it, LET'S GO BRANDON!

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Posted
54 minutes ago, immamac said:

Where are the actual new voters coming from for trump? We've been over this. It isn't from women of any color. The campaign has made that extremely clear, he's self admittedly doing poorly with women and he's running against a woman. Someone explain to me how the fuck this makes any sense to anyone? 

Not only that, but Trump can target them all he wants, and if they aren’t registered to vote (many aren’t) and they don’t have same-day registration, it’s useless.

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Posted

Are we, the Goodwill stores, and sub Saharan Africa ready for the deluge of Trump gear that will be strewn across the globe in the coming months 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Constant said:

Cameraman must have had to zoom in tighter than a nuns cunt to avoid showing the embarrassment. 

you've got a way with words

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

Explain this to me like I am stupid. 
 

 

spoiler alert 

Pretty sure Brinker owns Chili's, among many other brands.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Who the FUCK are you namby pamby weaklings?  Your system can't handle freaking CHILI'S?  SEE, IT'S WEAKLINGS LIKE YOU WHO HAVE CURSED THIS COUNTRY.  MAN UP, EAT SOME CHIPS AND SALSA, SOME SW EGG ROLLS, AND A PRETTY DECENT BURGER!  DO IT FOR AMERICA.  

Why you yelling at me boss!

I'm going. I'm already planned that I'm lying to wife (bc I make dinner MWTh) about not having food and bring home this shit. It's going to take me an extra half hour and risk of disembowelment.

Point your fire at @'stache



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