Jump to content

2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


Recommended Posts

Posted
10 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Read a story a few weeks back, and might've even posted it here, that said Trump has been consistently lying for so long he can no longer keep track of things on a day-to-day basis. That's partly due to obvious cognitive decline. Basically, whatever comes out of his mouth is what he believes to be true at that given time. He is likely to totally contradict himself the next day. It's amazing this guy will get more than 70M votes on 11/5.

Whatever sounds good in the moment. Kamala is saying she'll re-institute the draft, Walz wants to kill babies, I actually won California in 2020, etc. These aren't even "They're eating the dogs" lies, where he's repeating something ridiculous he heard. He's just making shit up out of whole cloth. And it's largely being ignored. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
10 minutes ago, texastough said:

Re: a deal for Trump. This is all fantasy but I'll play along:

Instead of pardons for the federal crimes, you offer a non-prosecution agreement based on DJT fulfilling a number of conditions. Admissions of guilt. Never running for any office again. But way beyond that. He has to publicly admit that almost everything he's said to the American people have been intentional lies. It would be an enumerated list, including the admission that Biden and dems didn't steal the 2020 election; rather he attempted to defraud the American people in a number of ways, including fake electors, march on the capitol, bogus lawsuits, etc. And, he has to out an enumerated list of GOP pols as liars who are only serving billionaires and big corporations, explain all the rhetoric from the GOP and Fox/right wing media about things like immigration are lies designed to dupe the public to vote for a party actively trying to shit on the average American. He has to expose how GOP's get bought by the mega rich, corporations, and malicious foreign enemies. The list could go on, but the gist is something that would finally annihilate the GOP.

He fails to fulfill any of that, you prosecute. 

 

And as soon as the video of him was released, with him reading from a script admitting all of this, the MAGA folk would yell it's AI and refuse to believe it.

 

 

Posted
1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Purely anecdotal, but of all the "deeply religious" people I know, Mormons seem to be the most consistent in following the words/actions of Jesus in the bible and don't just use religion as an excuse to discriminate.  I think there's definitely something here.

Counterpoint: mormonism has some of the most recent history of deeply embedded dogmatic racism of any significant religion.  And Kamala is black.

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 1
Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: mormonism has some of the most recent history of deeply embedded dogmatic racism of any significant religion.  And Kamala is black.

Well yeah but she just turned black. 

  • Haha 4
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I for one do not welcome our new Mormon porn overlords....

EUDP4vjXQAASJ42.jpg:large

I can still fap to that. 

7 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

 

My understanding is that they'll use whichever morals their elders tell them to?

I had a Mormon friend who had to ask her elders if she could spend her own money on a new roof for her house.  After some deliberation, they said yes, as long as she also permanently increased her tithe to the church.  It makes perfect sense that these people have a significant say in an election in the United States in 2024.  Everything's cool.

Not in any way to downplay the signifigance of gaining another 100k voters in AZ, so I'm glad they're going to go this route to court Mormons. THat being said, the bolded above...Those elders sound like grifting motherfuckers who might like the cut of Trump's jib.

That being said, I've also heard that mormon's make the best neighbors, etc. so maybe they do prioritize harmony over division. Unless you're black. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Mormon "morality" permits them to elect a woman as the president? My understanding was the most responsibility afforded a Mormon woman was taking the lead on the weekly grocery shopping.

  • Haha 1
Posted
55 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, I find it incomprehensible he's getting 12% of the black vote, and yet here we are...

Maybe that 12% just suddenly turned black.

  • Haha 5
Posted
3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Those elders sound like grifting motherfuckers who might like the cut of Trump's jib.

 

Well, yeah, the guy out front with the golden plates from Heaven that only he can read shoulda told ya...

  • Haha 1
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

LOL this is funny: https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

Interesting model, but come on now bro, Harris is not winning 400 EVs. I fucking wish. 

Not so fast my friend.

I want to be clear upfront I don’t think she’s getting close to that total if she wins*.

theres a lot of talk a few pages back about the declining GOP EC advantage and how pollsters are dealing with systemic errors. 2016 and 2020 saw large systemic errors in favor of Clinton and Biden in the 2-4% range, but there’s no real reason to believe that those errors persist this time around, or for that matter that pollsters wouldn’t overcorrect in the other direction. In other words, the polls aren’t wrong, but they are just a snapshot of a group at a point in time. 

this is a tight election and there’s no getting around that fact, but I continue to believe that the “undecided voter” will move as a group at the end in a way that may be invisible to polling. I was playing around with some numbers on 270 to win this morning and the output was very interesting. 

If the polling averages are correct as of today, Harris wins with 292 EC votes, holding Nev, NC, Wi, MI, PA.

If there’s a systematic 2% error in Trump’s favor he picks up all of the above and gets 312EVs

With a 3% error in his favor across the board he also would win Oregon and Minnesota, or 330, and with a 3.5% error  he would pick up VA, OR and Neb 2, putting his total at 343. 

On the other hand:

if there is a 2% error in her favor, she wins picks up Maine 2, AZ, GA and maybe IA for 326. With 3% in her favor, she would also win Florida and Alaska, or 359 EVs, and with 3.5% she would win Texas and possibly Ohio, putting her at 399-416.
 

 

 

 

 

*Inshallah!

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

Are those numbers of mormons in AZ hardcore practicing mormons or mormons only by birth/heritage? In my experience, the latter share some of the same general values but not the batshit crazy beliefs. ETA the latter also don't have elders dictating their decisions.

Edited by texastough
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Not so fast my friend.

theres a lot of talk a few pages back about the declining GOP EC advantage and how pollsters are dealing with systemic errors. 2016 and 2020 saw large systemic errors in favor of Clinton and Biden in the 2-4% range, but there’s no real reason to believe that those errors persist this time around, or for that matter that pollsters wouldn’t overcorrect in the other direction. In other words, the polls aren’t wrong, but they are just a snapshot of a group at a point in time. 

this is a tight election and there’s no getting around that fact, but I continue to believe that the “undecided voter” will move as a group at the end in a way that may be invisible to polling. I was playing around with some numbers on 270 to win this morning and the output was very interesting. 

If the polling averages are correct as of today, Harris wins with 292 EC votes, holding Nev, NC, Wi, MI, PA.

If there’s a systematic 2% error in Trump’s favor he picks up all of the above and gets 312EVs

With a 3% error in his favor across the board he also would win Oregon and Minnesota, or 330, and with a 3.5% error  he would pick up VA, OR and Neb 2, putting his total at 343. 

On the other hand:

if there is a 2% error in her favor, she wins picks up Maine 2, AZ, GA and maybe IA for 326. With 3% in her favor, she would also win Florida and Alaska, or 359 EVs, and with 3.5% she would win Texas and possibly Ohio, putting her at 399-416.

Dude.....the protocol is puff, puff, PASS.  You are clearly bogarting all the doobage.

Posted
Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

Potential NC implications:

 

Honestly can't even begin to speculate what could be worse than the endless Robinson information already out there.

Surveillance footage of him at the adult video stores?

Honestly I thought it was pretty cool of him to bring pizza to the employees.

  • Haha 1
Posted
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude.....the protocol is puff, puff, PASS.  You are clearly bogarting all the doobage.

Maybe. But here’s the thing- if I told you that there was a good reason to believe that Donald Trump is going to win 330 electoral votes in this election, you would believe it, because there IS a good reason to believe that. But for the same reason it’s equally possible that Kamala Harris is cruising and on pace to win in an electoral landslide.

Posted

Don't worry everyone, the race is over.

Shitter is all a buzz because Trump is doing a rally in Long Island - New York is gonna flip, New Jersey is gonna flip, Virginia is in play

YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh

Posted
4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Potential NC implications:

 

Honestly can't even begin to speculate what could be worse than the endless Robinson information already out there.

Have we passed all NC deadlines to change the governor candidates?

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Maybe. But here’s the thing- if I told you that there was a good reason to believe that Donald Trump is going to win 330 electoral votes in this election, you would believe it, because there IS a good reason to believe that. But for the same reason it’s equally possible that Kamala Harris is cruising and on pace to win in an electoral landslide.

No, I don't believe Donald Trump is going to win 330 EVs.  Even Nate Silver hasn't thought that

Let me put it this way - if Trump wins 330 EVs, every single polling company will be out of business on by Jan 1, 2025, because their reputations will implode faster than a submersible of billionaires going to see the Titanic 

Edited by Js1
  • Haha 2
Posted
4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Potential NC implications:

 

Honestly can't even begin to speculate what could be worse than the endless Robinson information already out there.

Donated to a pro-immigrant org?

  • Haha 1
Posted

Pardon negotiation? now? are you people insane? all this chain of events of a collapsing democracy, abosolutely all of it can be traced to Ford pardoning Nixon, the culture of leniency towards republicans (lets face it always republicans) can be traced from there all the way to the supreme court granting immunity, all of it! building block by building block.

Denazification is the only solution, enough with playing scared with fascists they are idiots a second civil war would be over quickly if a dem controlled the military. If MAGA controlled the millitary it would take much longer but again they are idiots but they would lose in the end see Russia.

  • Hook 'Em 8
  • Like 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

"I'm in a cult. Actually, I'm in a couple of cults." 

I've been involved in a number of cults. As both a leader and a follower. You have more fun as a follower, but you make more money as a leader.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
  • Drool 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted

 

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Have we passed all NC deadlines to change the governor candidates?

 

 

Yes. Absentee ballots for NC start mailing tomorrow. Have by Saturday to meet overseas deadline.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Would appreciate hearing thoughts on Scaramucci’s statements on Trump. He believes a not insignificant reason Trump is running is because he fears all of the legal threats he faces. He wants the Presidency not only for grifting and power, but to stay out of jail and avoid massive legal fees. 


 

 

Trump, Bibi Netanyahu, and his homeboy Maduro down in Venezuela are cut from the exact same cloth. Either they stay in office for life or they die in prison.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
37 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

What is even the point of a pardon if he loses again? Let him run in 2028 as an 82-year-old two-time loser with a conspiracy platform with an even more diverse electorate.

Tbh this would be best case scenario for democrats that the GOP is tied to him for 4 more years thus further alienating the party from reality 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

He should refuse.  It doesn't matter if the allegations are that he raped a baby while murdering a puppy and it's all on video.  Republicans don't admit guilt, they don't apologize, and they have no shame.  "IT'S ALL JUST A DEM WITCH HUNT!"  FAKE NEWS!" and then move on.

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Tbh this would be best case scenario for democrats that the GOP is tied to him for 4 more years thus further alienating the party from reality 

I really don't want to monkey paw this, knock on wood 20 times, but the best scenario for us all is DJT keeps running forever behind bars (or most likely in exile). The fundamentals are all there for continual and constant defeat of the GOP.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

allegedly online nazi-esque comments by robinson

wasn't he already a holocaust denier?  i honestly can't imagine how bad it could be considering the crazy shit he's said and done already.

  • Hook 'Em 5
Posted
6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

This would be a truly shocking development. 

That there's something bad enough a Republican could do for his colleagues to ask him to drop out of a competitive race.

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Rage+1 1
  • Drool 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

 

For example, assume internal polling shows Trump he’s going to lose. Would he try to get an agreement with her before Election Day? 


 

 

Biden:  You want a deal?  First return that binder containing highly classified information related to Russian election interference that went missing before you left office.  Once they are on my desk, we can start talking.
Trump :  

  • Like 1
Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No, I don't believe Donald Trump is going to win 330 EVs.  Even Nate Silver hasn't thought that

Let me put it this way - if Trump wins 330 EVs, every single polling company will be out of business on by Jan 1, 2025, because their reputations will implode faster than a submersible of billionaires going to see the Titanic 

  No, 330 could absolutely happen. With only a 1% move in his direction he would get 292 or 306. (She would get 313)

Posted
14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

They also love whites like Jim McMahon who don’t follow any of their morality code, when they play for byu. 

Be careful when bagging on ex-BYU QB’s.

  • Haha 2


×
×
  • Create New...