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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
1 minute ago, bluto said:

This astute gentleman at texags has the polling hierarchy figured out IMG_6714.thumb.png.2f97e90fc908e3efb03a9ef4af527c1b.png

We need them to all think that Trump and Cruz are locks so they don’t need to take time away from their sheep to go vote.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

It's good news, but take it with a grain of salt.  2020 had a certain reason to keep people away from in person voting.

 

 

More in person voting, faster results 

3 minutes ago, bluto said:

This astute gentleman at texags has the polling hierarchy figured out IMG_6714.thumb.png.2f97e90fc908e3efb03a9ef4af527c1b.png

Behold the underminer posts on texags 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

He is addressing a specific component of the polls, that ended up being close.  And is saying that may be a useful tool to look at for this election. 

The margins were wrong bc Trump was polling in the 43-45 range, so plenty of room for undecided and late breakers to go to Trump. Which is what happened / but they were within less than  1/2 a point of Biden’s margins in the average of all 7 swing states in the end 

A poll showing Kamala winning 48-44 in PA ain’t shit, bc that 8% can break 80/20 and lose you the state. A poll showing her winning 50-46 is because 50% wins you the state, even if that 4% all broke to Trump

She is also leading with double haters and has the better favorable ratings, and most polls show the undecided votes are women, young voters or minorities. I’m quite certain I know which way they will lean

State polls showing her at or near 50 is what matters 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

It's good news, but take it with a grain of salt.  2020 had a certain reason to keep people away from in person voting.

 

 

Fairfax county makes it pretty easy to just do it by mail.  Once you apply to vote by mail once, you can just request for them to automatically send you a ballot for all elections going forward.  They text you when they mail it to you, text you when it is received by the post office and then another text when they receive it and count it.  Just got my text earlier today that it's on its way to me.  I'll have it counted by the end of next week.

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Posted
Just now, The Dog said:

 

Jeffries is actually a real good fundraiser but he did inherit Nancy’s Rolodex. I am 99% sure McCarthy burned his after he got ousted 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

If Harris is ever going to come out in support of full legalization of MJ, there's no time like the present.

I was wondering why DJT hadn't thought of that. PA is medical only, but WI, NC, and GA all are draconian. Seems like a good play for him, imo.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Trump can't do it because it pisses of old Republicans.

Yeah and they're for free trade too, until Orange God screams tariffs and credit card interest rate maximums. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

thatsbait.gif.

 

pick the worst polling year in 40 years and figure out how to say it was actually quite good, 

YARN | from a certain point of view. | Star Wars: Episode VI ...

What's wrong with it?  Please explain.

Posted
3 hours ago, Chopper said:

Not based on what various journos were saying last night but I have no idea. Honestly her cheating on him, or not, is not even part of the story we should care about. It's the way she tilted not only her coverage but probably influenced others. 

edit - someone posted a video back on page 728 of a short clip of her speaking and there's definitely notable body language to read as she speaks.

I had never heard of the skank or this Lizzard dude until 15 minutes ago.  You people are fucking weird.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

What's wrong with it?  Please explain.

I never once said the polling was great - I said they nailed Biden’s margins. So maybe that’s the issue - they can nail the Dem margins but figuring out Trump is hard because people wait until the last minute to decide to vote for him?

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I never once said the polling was great - I said they nailed Biden’s margins. So maybe that’s the issue - they can nail the Dem margins but figuring out Trump is hard because people wait until the last minute to decide to vote for him? won't admit they're voting for a shithead like him.

They aren't waiting to decide, they're just too ashamed to admit it to pollsters.

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

What's wrong with it?  Please explain.

seems to me there are two possible explanations. if something says, say biden 51 trump 44, and the final result is biden 51 trump 49, then either (1) js's theory that they nailed biden number but missed on all late deciders, or (2) they missed really bad.  a 7 point lead ended up a 2 point win.  it was happenstance that the bad miss on three groups (biden, trump, undecided) happened to align with the results of two groups (biden trump votes).  

seems to me that 2 is more likely.  i just did the thatsbait.gif because he and i have discussed polls in opposite directions multiple times, and that was going to get me discussing it again. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, locodos said:

Just the fact that truck isn't rusted out makes him a wizard.  If you listen carefully you can hear International trucks rust.  RIP my old 392 Travelall

Plus, the man drives in rock salt world during the winter.

 It took about one winter to destroy my Datsun B210 back in the day.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Plus, the man drives in rock salt world during the winter.

 It took about one winter to destroy my Datsun B210 back in the day.

Well, did you consider that maybe he sprung for the Trucoat?

fargo178.jpeg?ssl=1

Tim surely knows that if you don't get that Trucoat, you get oxidation problems.  But I also bet Tim talked em into throwing in the Trucoat for $100, not the $500 that Lundgard bastard was demanding.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

edit: (i mean: " happened to align with the results of ONE group (biden votes).)

Happened to align in just the same way in all seven swing states???

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I got a text that in-person voting starting in VA today. I checked, that's true - today is 45 days from election. that's nuts

I can confirm it did. I'm voting Monday

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Posted
1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Travis County Democratic Party is selling merch and yard signs at 601 East 53rd Street. I think @safe sex mentioned a few weeks ago she spotted the location. Also, for those of you who are Swifties or have some in your families, they're having Swifties for Harris get-together next Thursday after work.

They've (I assume it's the party itself) had stalls at the Uncommon Objects Flea Market that's on the last Sunday of the month in the past. I would hope they'll have one on the 29th.

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Posted
2 hours ago, locodos said:

Just the fact that truck isn't rusted out makes him a wizard.  If you listen carefully you can hear International trucks rust.  RIP my old 392 Travelall

I had a 76 Scout, in 1981.   A rusted out clunker.   Super props to Walz

Posted
16 minutes ago, Bevo in VA said:

Of course.  What do you expect when they pay them and bus them in!

Love that Byron York from the Washington Examiner, a shitty ass GOP rag not fit to line an animal’s cage, had to come out and be like “they’re not paid. They’re not bussed. This is real”



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