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Venezuela Invasion of Guyana


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6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes he was, but can russia really export any equipment now? Components?

I'm sure they can help provide some merc assistance as you'd know better than I would that they're still really active in Africa right now. I doubt Venezuela really needs all that much help if Guyana is in no shape to fight though.

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2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Which is what makes them such an easy target.

The terrain is not easy for a rapid attack. UK should drop in a Para regiment and some Royal Marines to hold a "training exercise." Add in some SAM units.

Make a second Jungle training center (the other is in Belize). Maybe toss in some older aircraft.

And the Venezuelan military is more of a militia around a small core of combat units.

Doctrine

The military doctrine of the armed forces today is based on policy laid out by the late Hugo Chávez (President and Commander in Chief from 1999 to 2013). According to Chávez's policy, the military would also follow defense principles of a "people's war of resistance" against the enemies of the republic and to assist in "internal order," as well as participate in government economic development plans and programs for the benefit of the people of Venezuela.[citation needed]

There are not many roads in this area. So their tanks are  pretty worthless. Not a lot of attack helicopters.

Air Force is meh. I doubt the F-16's are in great condition. So they do not have a real combat threat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_Air_Force

 

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1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

I'm sure they can help provide some merc assistance as you'd know better than I would that they're still really active in Africa right now. I doubt Venezuela really needs all that much help if Guyana is in no shape to fight though.

Maybe some, but probably more from Cuba. Who also has not had a combat operation other than advising since Angola.

There is one issue the Venezuelans have to consider is Colombia and that border. This could be why the FARC and ELN are making noise.

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I don't know much about this, but doesn't France claim a portion of Guyana?  And by claim, I meant treat it as a part of France.

Quote

Fully integrated in the French Republic since 1946, French Guiana is a part of the European Union, and its official currency is the euro. A large part of French Guiana's economy depends on jobs and businesses associated with the presence of the Guiana Space Centre, now the European Space Agency's primary launch site near the equator. As elsewhere in France, the official language is standard French, but each ethnic community has its own language, of which French Guianese Creole, a French-based creole language, is the most widely spoken. French Guiana is the only territory on the continental mainland of the Americas that is still under the sovereignty of a European state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Guiana

 

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3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

And the Venezuelan military is more of a militia around a small core of combat units.

I read somewhere that that was by design - previous leaders didn’t want a military that could stage a coup.

Brazil is the wildcard, they’ve made it known they don’t want Guyana invaded, and they want to be leaders on a larger international stage. 

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I read somewhere that that was by design - previous leaders didn’t want a military that could stage a coup.

Brazil is the wildcard, they’ve made it known they don’t want Guyana invaded, and they want to be leaders on a larger international stage. 

The issue with Brazil is Lula is friends with Maduro. What they would send would be minimal.

4 minutes ago, locodos said:

I don't know much about this, but doesn't France claim a portion of Guyana?  And by claim, I meant treat it as a part of France.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Guiana

 

Different country. Guyana is part of the UK Commonwealth.

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5 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

The issue with Brazil is Lula is friends with Maduro. What they would send would be minimal.

Venezuela don’t have the naval force to seize the (American/Brit) oil and gas assets offshore which is what they want..  Some FAFO vibes.

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Venezuela don’t have the naval force to seize the (American/Brit) oil and gas assets offshore which is what they want..  Some FAFO vibes.

No they do not, so perhaps a naval exclusion zone should be announced. Park a few destroyers down there augmented by US Air operating out of South Florida. Declare it for regional free maritime and environmental concerns.

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I have a close friend who was directly involved with the work regarding the oil discovery and now, delivery. He's down there all the time. They were briefed, along with the Guyana government brass, by US & UK state officials a month ago on the latest thinking regarding what Venezuela will and won't do. At that time, the whole thing was viewed as a nothingburger with Maduro saber-rattling to drum up support ahead of an election. It was emphasized by US & UK officials and attending non-officials to the corporate and governmental brass that the US & UK had zero interest in seeing Venezuela make any attempt on Guyana land. 

China's also really involved on the natural resources side, so I doubt they're super-excited if Venezuela does something. 

Anyway, a lot of you guys dork out way, way hard on international diplomacy and warfare, so I'm sure there are flaws in what I'm saying that will be exposed, but it's the best I've got from half-listening to an O&G buddy bore me for 30 minutes over a manhattan while our wives gabbed before being seated at Hamsa in Houston some weeks ago. I'd be kind of stunned if Maduro actually went through with something.

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37 minutes ago, locodos said:

I don't know much about this, but doesn't France claim a portion of Guyana?  And by claim, I meant treat it as a part of France.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Guiana

 

There are three countries/entities on the NE coast of South America.  From west to east....

Guyana (former British colony now independent), Suriname (former Dutch colony now independent) and French Guiana (overseas territory governed by France.)   Obviously, Venezuela is agitating for the oil fields and there's nothing like a good old distraction to keep peoples mind off the ramshackle Venezuelan economy.

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15 minutes ago, Grimas said:

Great band to have seen live a few times... Damn, I'm old...

Quite envious.  I'm a few years too young to have made it to any of their performances.  Growing up, I went to Church with David Bean's parents in Pearland.  Never had a chance to meet him as he's about 10 years older than me, but amongst the teenagers in the congregation, he was a mythical creature.

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