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Posted (edited)

He has all but 11 of the BYU passing attempts this season.  Bachmeier is indeed a Freshman, but he's been playing damn well for the Cougars.

He's not 'new.'

Discussed upthread, but also thought BYU pulled the reins in the 3rd a little, and most definitely in the 4th.  It was some boring-ass, plain vanilla play calling by both teams, with the prospect of a possible rematch looming.

Edited by Iceman
Posted
2 hours ago, hornbri said:

It is not that dumb, we are going to be the last at large in this week and the 9 teams in front of us are not going to move that much. If we lose to Georgia it is something like 

B1G

OSU

Indiana (or Ohio State whoever loses the B1G)

2 of A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss (depending on who wins the SEC)

Big 12 Champ 

Georgia (they miss the SEC game)

Oregon 

ND

…..

So 3 loss Texas with wins over A&M, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma would be battling to be the 5th SEC team in against the 4th Big 10 team, the 2nd big 12 team and the 2nd ACC team. I just don’t think it is as clear cut that for sure a 3 loss team is getting in, i do think it would be close. 

Read what I wrote  I said definitely getting in above us for a reason because I was responding to a moron who said absolutely no chance if we lose to GA. Every computer has 9/3 texas north of 70% ringer in. It’s not a metaphysical certainty or anything but to say no chance is idiotically dumb. 
mall those teams you were talking about getting in probably have losses ahead of them. Michigan. Georgia Tech, USC, OU will all be prohibitive favorites to not win out. We just need that to happen. If it doesn’t we also have river card outs with the chance for Oregon to lose twice, MSST to lose to Florida or Ole Miss or Domers to lose. No chance with a loss to Georgia?  Incredibly fucking dumb man. That’s what I was replying to. 

Posted
27 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Texas & OU tied for 10th in Coach’s poll w/ both Georgia Tech & BYU behind them…..

glad this poll doesn't count

Posted

SC is a team to watch. A 10-2 SC and 10-2 Oregon would be a pretty compelling to the committee. 
 

People don’t want to talk about it but OSU is a team with a lot of bread on the schedule outside of Texas.  They have, however, won convincingly most games.

Fans and talking heads overvalue “big” wins (and overly punish big losses). And they undervalue consistent winning when teams are moderate favorites or moderate dawgs. You’ll look at 5 game stretch where a team is at 75% chance to win and think its a walk; but each of those dogs has a better chance to win than the favorite to emerge unscathed.  Drop a game or two to 60 or 55 percent chance of winning and its really a longshot. 
 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

SC is a team to watch. A 10-2 SC and 10-2 Oregon would be a pretty compelling to the committee. 
 

People don’t want to talk about it but OSU is a team with a lot of bread on the schedule outside of Texas.  They have, however, won convincingly most games.

Fans and talking heads overvalue “big” wins (and overly punish big losses). And they undervalue consistent winning when teams are moderate favorites or moderate dawgs. You’ll look at 5 game stretch where a team is at 75% chance to win and think its a walk; but each of those dogs has a better chance to win than the favorite to emerge unscathed.  Drop a game or two to 60 or 55 percent chance of winning and its really a longshot. 
 

Either or both SC and Oregon at 10-2 will absolutely be in the playoffs. It seems unlikely that they both will finish 10-2. Lot of loseable games on the schedule for each team and the only way they could both be 10-2 is if USC wins at Oregon which won’t be how the game is favored to go. 

Posted
16 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

SC is a team to watch. A 10-2 SC and 10-2 Oregon would be a pretty compelling to the committee. 
 

People don’t want to talk about it but OSU is a team with a lot of bread on the schedule outside of Texas.  They have, however, won convincingly most games.

Fans and talking heads overvalue “big” wins (and overly punish big losses). And they undervalue consistent winning when teams are moderate favorites or moderate dawgs. You’ll look at 5 game stretch where a team is at 75% chance to win and think its a walk; but each of those dogs has a better chance to win than the favorite to emerge unscathed.  Drop a game or two to 60 or 55 percent chance of winning and its really a longshot. 
 

How would 10-2 Oregon be compelling? They would have played 3 good teams and lost to 2 of them.

Posted
23 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

SC is a team to watch. A 10-2 SC and 10-2 Oregon would be a pretty compelling to the committee. 
 

People don’t want to talk about it but OSU is a team with a lot of bread on the schedule outside of Texas.  They have, however, won convincingly most games.

Fans and talking heads overvalue “big” wins (and overly punish big losses). And they undervalue consistent winning when teams are moderate favorites or moderate dawgs. You’ll look at 5 game stretch where a team is at 75% chance to win and think its a walk; but each of those dogs has a better chance to win than the favorite to emerge unscathed.  Drop a game or two to 60 or 55 percent chance of winning and its really a longshot. 
 

OSU has a resume comparable to your school, just with more cache. One legit win and a whole bunch of bread. But unlike Texas, for example, OSU and A&M have generally showed up and flexed muscle against their bread.

Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

OSU has a resume comparable to your school, just with more cache. One legit win and a whole bunch of bread. But unlike Texas, for example, OSU and A&M have generally showed up and flexed muscle against their bread.

On every metric A&M’s SoS is far closer to Texas’ than to tOSU. Massey, Sagarin, FPI. Take your pick. A&M and Texas usually within about 5 of each other and tOSU down in the 20s to even 40s.  
 

But— as I posted earlier— fans overstate SoS value for the committee. 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
Posted

Since several different opinions, just wondering which 3 loss scenario gives Texas best chance to make playoffs:

  1. Lose to Ga, beat arky & aggy
  2. Lose to arky, beat Ga & aggy
  3. Lose to aggy, beat Ga & arky

 

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Posted
Just now, LTtxfan said:

Since several different opinions, just wondering which 3 loss scenario gives Texas best chance to make playoffs:

  1. Lose to Ga, beat arky & aggy
  2. Lose to arky, beat Ga & aggy
  3. Lose to aggy, beat Ga & arky

 

Or just don't lose. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, ztejas said:

How would 10-2 Oregon be compelling? They would have played 3 good teams and lost to 2 of them.

The committee will look for reasons to have more rather than less conference balance. 

Posted
1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

Since several different opinions, just wondering which 3 loss scenario gives Texas best chance to make playoffs:

  1. Lose to Ga, beat arky & aggy
  2. Lose to arky, beat Ga & aggy
  3. Lose to aggy, beat Ga & arky

 

1 for sure. The later you lose, the less chance you have to move back up.  
 

the old adage it’s better to lose early than to lose late….

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

Since several different opinions, just wondering which 3 loss scenario gives Texas best chance to make playoffs:

  1. Lose to Ga, beat arky & aggy
  2. Lose to arky, beat Ga & aggy
  3. Lose to aggy, beat Ga & arky

 

Very much dependent on how you look in the losses and what the teams do with rest of the schedule. Blowing out UGA at home, thumping Arky, and dropping a tight one to A&M is a good look, or you can swap the results for UGA and A&M assuming they both win out otherwise. Likewise, eking out a win over A&M but losing big to UGA is likely less helpful. 

Posted

Lose to Georgia then we don’t really need to worry about playoffs…  If we don’t beat them we aren’t magically going to turn into a team that’s going to actually going to win the National Championship.  

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Posted
11 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

On every metric A&M’s SoS is far closer to Texas’ than to tOSU. Massey, Sagarin, FPI. Take your pick. A&M and Texas usually within about 5 of each other and tOSU down in the 20s to even 40s.  
 

But— as I posted earlier— fans overstate SoS value for the committee. 

That’s interesting. Based on watching the games, I find it hard to find a discernible difference between Auburn, LSU, Missouri, Arkansas, Miss St and Florida, on the one hand, and Penn State, Washington, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Purdue, on the other hand. OU and Vandy would pretty clearly be the second and third best teams on either A&M’s or OSU’s schedule. 
 

Just to be clear, I’m not suggesting either team is either overranked or overrated. Just that both have only faced high level competition once this season. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Lose to Georgia then we don’t really need to worry about playoffs…  If we don’t beat them we aren’t magically going to turn into a team that’s going to actually going to win the National Championship.  

Idk I’d like to see us in the playoffs regardless of our odds to win it all. I’m crazy like that though 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, immamac said:

A Texas that wins out and misses the SECCG is fucking stupid as fuck.

Beating two Top 5 teams will elevate us over Ole Miss. I’m assuming that a tie between us and Ole Miss would be decided by rank, or is there some convoluted common opponent metric?

Posted
3 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

Beating two Top 5 teams will elevate us over Ole Miss. I’m assuming that a tie between us and Ole Miss would be decided by rank, or is there some convoluted common opponent metric?

Its some bullshit 3 way tie with a round robin clause now. Its the dumbest thing I've ever seen when there's a h2h in a 3 way tie there's no need for it to be round robin. 

Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

That’s interesting. Based on watching the games, I find it hard to find a discernible difference between Auburn, LSU, Missouri, Arkansas, Miss St and Florida, on the one hand, and Penn State, Washington, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Purdue, on the other hand. OU and Vandy would pretty clearly be the second and third best teams on either A&M’s or OSU’s schedule. 
 

Just to be clear, I’m not suggesting either team is either overranked or overrated. Just that both have only faced high level competition once this season. 

It’s the cumulative thing. In any given contest, the difference isn’t that big: maybe Auburn had a 15 percent or so greater chance to win against A&M than Minnesota did against tOSU (pulled that from my ass, BTW). But over five games those probabilities cumulatively mean a huge difference.

This has always been the secret about the SEC, btw. And why it’s so maddening to try and figure out why it is. The bottom and mid teams are just a BIT better than the bottom and mid of others. In indibidual games- doesn’t seem noticable. In a full season it shows up.

I think tOSU is in the right spot, btw. 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, immamac said:

A Texas that wins out and misses the SECCG is fucking stupid as fuck.

It will be hilarious because if we win out A&M at Texas will be a top 5 match up. 

Texas would be ranked 2nd in the country and still miss the SEC 

Edit : r/wouldnt/would

Edited by BigHornedLurker
Posted
Just now, BigHornedLurker said:

It will be hilarious because if we win out A&M at Texas will be a top 5 match up. 

Texas wouldn't be ranked 2nd in the country and still miss the SEC 

 

Except they would because the rules are written so fucking dumb. 

Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, immamac said:

Except they would because the rules are written so fucking dumb. 

I autocorrected but left it since you responded super fast. 

Maybe we move down to 3 after the SEC championship , but we'd be at 2 watching everything from a hot tub 

Edited by BigHornedLurker
Posted
Just now, William Bludworth said:

ND ahead of us is a crime against humanity. How is that even possible? They play literally academy schools. 

They didn’t lose to Florida. To be fair without that loss Texas is a top 5 team

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Yeah I'm sure Texas is not paying its players and definitely isn't in the top 5 in spend for this season. Fucking idiot take.

All he’s saying is that they outbid Texas for a few players, which they did. 

Posted

It feels like Ole Miss is going to get left out in the cold. They don’t have enough meat on the schedule to pass Bama or aggy. 
 

I bet Lane could give a shit, but pretty interesting that a 11-1 team might not make the conference championship. 

Posted
11 minutes ago, William Bludworth said:

ND ahead of us is a crime against humanity. How is that even possible? They play literally academy schools. 

ND has looked better than us for the entire season.    If we beat Georgia next week I think we jump them and tech.   

Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, The Original CaliHorn said:

Texas would beat the living shit out of Gomer and Tech

I was talking about this part.

Quote

What a wild ride after starting as the No. 1 team, to falling unranked, to back into the top 10

Is that a first?

Us being #1, then out of the poll, and back to #10 says more about the idiotic polls than it  does about us imho. It was stupid that we were dropped out of the top 25 when it happened. Just as stupid as ranking us #1 with a new stasrting qb among others. We never should have been out of the top 25 and shouldn't have been #1. But I wonder if that's ever happened before.

 

 

Edited by wood
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Posted

It's pretty wild and fun when you can't really point to a dominant group among the top ten teams. It felt like it would be that way from the beginning.

I'd say Bama, Georgia, and Ohio State are the barely elite. A&M has done with their easy schedule all that can be done. I suspect that they belong lower in the rating, but it's so hard to tell for sure. 

If we get our safeties back and Arch keeps growing, we might end up being the national monster. Big if.

If Arch can execute from the start, I think we can jump ahead of Georgia early. Sark's specially designed plays will work.

Then we have to see if we can hold off their furious fourth quarter comeback.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

Lose to Georgia then we don’t really need to worry about playoffs…  If we don’t beat them we aren’t magically going to turn into a team that’s going to actually going to win the National Championship.  

Like if Ohio State lost to Michigan last year?

Just get in.

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Posted
27 minutes ago, immamac said:

They didn’t lose to Florida. To be fair without that loss Texas is a top 5 team

God damn, that loss to Florida just completely face raped us. You know it's bad when you go from #9 to completely out of the polls. It's amazing we're back to where we were. That loss it a hard pill to swallow. 

Posted
6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t typically tend to notice names unless they a sociopaths, absolute and utter morons, or awesome, consistently, all  the time. Or, Sydney Carton who’s none of the above but I notice. Maybe he should be on my always ignore but that’s Helo level dumb for me to really notice. 

Glad to know I'm on your radar.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Mr. Drummond said:

ND has looked better than us for the entire season.    If we beat Georgia next week I think we jump them and tech.   

ND hasn’t played a really bad schedule. Theirs is better than most teams in the Big Ten or ACC. Four opponents currently in the CFP rankings. Only two G5 opponents (fewer than nearly all actual P4 schools). One of those was a CFP team last year and the other was  one loss team. 
 

Beyond that, ND-Navy has been played since 1927 with only COVID interrupting. A lot of the things people shit on ND for are actually cool things ND does. They could easily replace that game for another bigger payday but it’s one of the older and cooler games in the sport and its awesome that every Middie player gets a shot at Domer. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

It's pretty wild and fun when you can't really point to a dominant group among the top ten teams. It felt like it would be that way from the beginning.

I'd say Bama, Georgia, and Ohio State are the barely elite. A&M has done with their easy schedule all that can be done. I suspect that they belong lower in the rating, but it's so hard to tell for sure. 

If we get our safeties back and Arch keeps growing, we might end up being the national monster. Big if.

If Arch can execute from the start, I think we can jump ahead of Georgia early. Sark's specially designed plays will work.

Then we have to see if we can hold off their furious fourth quarter comeback.

I can say with almost complete confidence that if aggy were to play Indiana, they would get embarrassed. That's a game I want to see. Not Georgia/TCU embarrassed, but they would lose by 2-3 TD's. They're definitely a tier three team. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, William Bludworth said:

I can say with almost complete confidence that if aggy were to play Indiana, they would get embarrassed. That's a game I want to see. Not Georgia/TCU embarrassed, but they would lose by 2-3 TD's. They're definitely a tier three team. 

I've kind of fallen in love with Indiana. I had a similar feeling for Iowa State when we were Big 12. Indiana football is pretty old school tough discipline. I enjoy watching their games. I pretty much think they deserve their ranking. I'd love to see that matchup. I'm glad of the expanded playoff because of the wild possibilities.

We'd be the story of the decade if we took it all (must win out). What a ride! A footnote of pleasure would be doing in the year the Aggies have their best chance since the 90s (fuck the Covid season).

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Posted
1 hour ago, Brian Fantana said:

Yeah I'm sure Texas is not paying its players and definitely isn't in the top 5 in spend for this season. Fucking idiot take.

The worst thing about Tech being “good” is having to listen to this cunt. Why don’t you fuck off to Raider Power.

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