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The Beto Effect


tantric superman

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18 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So there's no doubt this is still Abbott's race to lose. But I'm thinking that the Beto tour to all these small towns is pretty smart strategy. 

On a whim, I looked through the Texas results for president. Trump won overall 52/46. But what stood out to me is how DEEP red so many of those small rural counties. While Biden might win a big county 55/45 or 60/40, Trump won these smaller counties by insane margins -- 85/15. 

Meanwhile, Abbott isn't going to these places. If Beto can turn some counties from 85/15 to 80/20 by visiting and showing his face, it can add up.

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18 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The problem isn't so much percentages, but net votes. Some of those counties are so small you could flip the 85%/15% and it would still only net you a couple hundred votes. If he can't pick up at least 2,000 votes with a 5 point swing (really should be 5,000), he's wasting his time visiting them more than once. 

 

17 hours ago, Js1 said:

You love to see it.

Texas Republicans worry Beto could win the suburbs - Axios Dallas

Collin County GOP is flipping out.  Trump won 51% in Collin County.  Beto lost is by 6 in 2018. 

 

16 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Tarrant county ( where I’m from) is crucial for the future of the states politics. It actually went blue in 2020 by the slimmest of margins and I really hope the trend of it turning blue continues.

This is why Beto needs to hurry up and finish his podunk, Texas tour and camp out in Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco and El Paso and their suburbs. Drive the base and the shifting demographics in the population centers and the suburbs. 
 

that’s the winning strategy, and it’s manageable.  All 254 counties and drive the vote in population centers seems like too much.  It makes for a nice headline but that’s about it. 

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Texas has a better shot at beating Alabama than Beto does at winning this election. Stop it. 

Eh, Beto could win if a million different things go his way. They won’t, but it’s possible.

If a million things go Texas’s way vs Alabama, they lose by 17 instead of 77.

Y’all talking about chipping away at the rural vote and the suburbs sound exactly like 2018 and 2020. At some point you’ve got to come to grips with that this state is. Transplants aren’t going to save us. Disaffected Republicans are more moving here like we all think about moving to Colorado or wherever. Remember, exit polling showed Beto won native Texans.
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This is why Beto needs to hurry up and finish his podunk, Texas tour and camp out in Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco and El Paso and their suburbs. Drive the base and the shifting demographics in the population centers and the suburbs. 
 
that’s the winning strategy, and it’s manageable.  All 254 counties and drive the vote in population centers seems like too much.  It makes for a nice headline but that’s about it. 

Yes. The winning strategy is getting as many votes out as possible in the triangle, EP, and the valley. I don’t know that there is a path to victory, but if it exists, that’s where it is.
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1 hour ago, troph said:

 

 

 

This is why Beto needs to hurry up and finish his podunk, Texas tour and camp out in Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco and El Paso and their suburbs. Drive the base and the shifting demographics in the population centers and the suburbs. 
 

that’s the winning strategy, and it’s manageable.  All 254 counties and drive the vote in population centers seems like too much.  It makes for a nice headline but that’s about it. 

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2 hours ago, troph said:

 

 

 

This is why Beto needs to hurry up and finish his podunk, Texas tour and camp out in Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Waco and El Paso and their suburbs. Drive the base and the shifting demographics in the population centers and the suburbs. 
 

that’s the winning strategy, and it’s manageable.  All 254 counties and drive the vote in population centers seems like too much.  It makes for a nice headline but that’s about it. 

 Beto's gun control stance and confrontational projection of it is what has gotten the media attention, but what is he saying/doing about Texas women's loss of their reproductive rights?  It seems like this would be a big opportunity to pick up some very motivated voters in Texas, maybe more so than with his stance on guns.  This is a very real, concrete instance of Texans actually losing rights to a government operating counter to the general public desire.  In other words, tyranny.

I only get glimpses of Beto when he makes a big enough ruckus to get on news outside of Texas -- Uvalde press conference confrontation, it aint funny to me, motherfucker, etc...

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I know that most of you feel that Beto going into the rural counties is reaping minimal results when it comes to votes and everything should be focused on the big metro areas. 

However the Wendy Davis campaign (in conjunction with Battleground Texas) decided to completely ignore the rural vote in 16, as well as most of the white vote.  She lost by double digits with that strategy.  So while he might not win by turning out an additional 3% podunk vote, he'll certainly lose by not paying attention to what he already has there.    And the other down ballot people are out there pressing flesh and making speeches, touring as well.  

Every one of these stops is getting local TV and print coverage, for free.  The MAGAs showing up just make it even more appealing to the news people.   He is getting tons of exposure on all the social medias as well.   IG, twitter, TikTok are full of folks reposting his content, as well as Collier's, Warford's, etc.  We can't fight the huge war chests for TV ads, but social media is a boon to cash poor but follower rich candidates.

Plus the timing of this tour is good, because it's a period right before Labor Day when all the races really dig in and run hard.  So he's out there working the smaller counties and saving his time in Sept/Oct for those larger metro areas.  

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The timing of the small town swing may be good.  It shows he is working his butt off in a traditional dead period when his opponent is a no show.  I think he will do a whirlwind statewide tour before Election Day to remind those people he is there and Wheels is not.  The Collin county numbers show where he has a real opportunity though

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9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

No Show Abbott 

Absent Abbott.

 

Beto has zero chance of winning.  But he at least deserves acknowledgement that he is campaigning hard as fuck.  He will lose, but not because he didn’t work hard to get votes.

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2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Absent Abbott.

 

Beto has zero chance of winning.  But he at least deserves acknowledgement that he is campaigning hard as fuck.  He will lose, but not because he didn’t work hard to get votes.

People said the same thing about Trump.

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21 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

People said the same thing about Trump.

Sure, lots of people said Trump didn’t have a chance in 2015-2016; I was one of them.  But no one at all ever said Trump worked super hard to be nominated.  He didn’t work hard at all.  He just stepped into a gaping void no one else with fame was willing to step into.  He was uniquely suited to be crowned by the people freaked out about a black dude becoming president.

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42 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Sure, lots of people said Trump didn’t have a chance in 2015-2016; I was one of them.  But no one at all ever said Trump worked super hard to be nominated.  He didn’t work hard at all.  He just stepped into a gaping void no one else with fame was willing to step into.  He was uniquely suited to be crowned by the people freaked out about a black dude becoming president.

I don't know how hard of work it was for him, but Trump showed up in the places he needed to to ramble on as he does, and Hilary didn't.  I think that's the point.  I agree Beto doesn't have much of a chance if history is any indication.  But Abbott is Hilary in this simulation - complacent career politician candidate, with scandals and controversies (real this time), who doesn't get anyone excited.  Complacent GOP voters expect him to win and don't show up to polls in same numbers as usual because what races in Texas matter anyway?

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31 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

I don't know how hard of work it was for him, but Trump showed up in the places he needed to to ramble on as he does, and Hilary didn't.  I think that's the point.  I agree Beto doesn't have much of a chance if history is any indication.  But Abbott is Hilary in this simulation - complacent career politician candidate, with scandals and controversies (real this time), who doesn't get anyone excited.  Complacent GOP voters expect him to win and don't show up to polls in same numbers as usual because what races in Texas matter anyway?

Beto has Roe v Wade running alongside him, and Trump is not on the ticket, so I’m not quite willing to write him off just yet.

Women do vote.  Kansas was a wake up call.

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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Beto has Roe v Wade running alongside him, and Trump is not on the ticket, so I’m not quite willing to write him off just yet.

Women do vote.  Kansas was a wake up call.

This. Between Uvalde and Dobbs, if a popular and charismatic guy like Beto can't win, then write off Texas for another 20 years. This is our best shot. 

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21 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

This. Between Uvalde and Dobbs, if a popular and charismatic guy like Beto can't win, then write off Texas for another 20 years. This is our best shot. 

That's how it felt in 2018, and it's how it will feel in 2026. The demographics keep shifting away from the GOP, which is why they're trying so hard to make inroads with latinos and blacks. The flip is inevitable.

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35 minutes ago, RPM said:

Don't forget Abbott agreed to debate Beto. 

 

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This isn't the slam dunk we think it is.  Beto didn't destroy Cruz 4 years ago in the debates and I thought he would.  And he was below average in the presidential debates.  I think he has the potential to wipe the floor with Greg if he approaches it right.  But he can't go at it the same way as the prior races.

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1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

That's how it felt in 2018, and it's how it will feel in 2026. The demographics keep shifting away from the GOP, which is why they're trying so hard to make inroads with latinos and blacks. The flip is inevitable.

 

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

Texas moves closer to flipping every election. Have to get the young female vote out, especially young latinas. 

We keep saying this, but it never happens. For every college educated tech worker that moves to Austin, it seems like two blue collar families from the rust belt move to Corpus or Beaumont to work in the O&G business. I read a piece about a year ago that blue collar refugees from the rust belt were moving here in larger numbers than educated white collar workers because the Texas energy industry is one of the last high paying blue collar industries in the country. 

The shift to WFH for white collar jobs might even make it worse. 

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Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

 

We keep saying this, but it never happens. For every college educated tech worker that moves to Austin, it seems like two blue collar families from the rust belt move to Corpus or Beaumont to work in the O&G business. I read a piece about a year ago that blue collar refugees from the rust belt were moving here in larger numbers than educated white collar workers because the Texas energy industry is one of the last high paying blue collar industries in the country. 

The shift to WFH for white collar jobs might even make it worse. 

Corpus is not growing faster than CenTex. Williamson is never going red again, and neither is Sugar Land.

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25 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Corpus is not growing faster than CenTex. Williamson is never going red again, and neither is Sugar Land.


corpus was the largest Texas city to vote trump over Biden

 

 

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11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


corpus was the largest Texas city to vote trump over Biden

 

 

I believe it. But it's not developing at the pace of Austin. Not even close. Only grew 4% from 2010 to 2020 compared to Austin's 20%

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1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Corpus is not growing faster than CenTex. Williamson is never going red again, and neither is Sugar Land.

Quote

Still, Texas is a strong competitor for interstate migrants and a large portion of those migrants are working age. We get a clue to this migration pattern from an unusual statistic. Only about half of migrants to Texas move to its major population centers. People aren’t moving to Lubbock or Midland for the scenery. What’s driving migration to Texas is the oil business.

Thanks its dominance of the oil industry, encompassing every aspect of the business from pipefitting to shipping to futures trading, Texas retains an attraction that Ohio and Michigan have lost – an abundance of well paid blue-collar jobs. It’s not just drilling. Truck driving, surveying, pipeline maintenance, refining and all of the white collar elements of the industry are based primarily in Texas. Oil shapes every Texas industry from software to finance.

Texas’ big surge of migration after 2005 coincides with the collapse of Rust Belt manufacturing in the same period. Thanks to the oil business, Texas is a magnet for blue collar migration not seen since the early 20th century. Texas isn’t the new California. It’s the new Ohio.

This also helps explain why Texas’ growth hasn’t done much to moderate the state’s politics. Only a small fraction of the state’s growth over the past fifteen years or so has knowledge work of the kind dominating New York or Boston. Migrants in the prime working age population are not skewing the state left, because a large portion of them respond to a blue collar populist appeal. Even in Houston or Dallas, much of the population growth has been sucked into the very conservative orbit of oil and gas. Unlike almost any other region of the US, Texas continues to support job growth in secondary and even small cities thanks to the demands of oil and gas. 

 

Why Texas Is Growing So Fast

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3 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

This. Between Uvalde and Dobbs, if a popular and charismatic guy like Beto can't win, then write off Texas for another 20 years. This is our best shot. 

Perspective is a funny thing. I think Beto is going to win it.  After that, you can write off Texas for at least the next 20 years.  

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6 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Perspective is a funny thing. I think Beto is going to win it.  After that, you can write off Texas for at least the next 20 years.  

finger-guns-michael-scott.gif

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45 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Perspective is a funny thing. I think Beto is going to win it.  After that, you can write off Texas for at least the next 20 years.  

So Beto is going to pull off the upset, and then somefuckinghow mismanage the state so badly that Rs keep Texas for 20 years? Hell the dump I took this morning could have handled the 2021 freeze and non existent border crisis than the Abbott ever could.

 

That said, unfortunately I don't think Beto has a shot and that Rs keep hold for at least 20 years because of gerrymandering and fear mongering.

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42 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Perspective is a funny thing. I think Beto is going to win it.  After that, you can write off Texas for at least the next 20 years.  

LOL, as opposed to now, where Republican legislators in Texas are getting fired up about tracking women who leave the state for abortion and filing criminal charges against those who would help them?  They have Paxton’s ear, and they are already threatening law firms who would aid women who leave Texas for an abortion.  You do realize that to accomplish what they are hoping to do, they will have to try and turn Texas into a police state.  They want to turn it into the very thing they claim liberals want.

Women are paying attention to that stuff.

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13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

LOL, as opposed to now, where Republican legislators in Texas are getting fired up about tracking women who leave the state for abortion and filing criminal charges against those who would help them?  They have Paxton’s ear, and they are already threatening law firms who would aid women who leave Texas for an abortion.  You do realize that to accomplish what they are hoping to do, they will have to try and turn Texas into a police state.  They want to turn it into the very thing they claim liberals want.

Women are paying attention to that stuff.

Yep, the pubs fucked up with the RvW bullshit and the non-evangelicals among us are going to be fucked, probably for a decade plus.  

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https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/12/texas-2020-census/amp/


People of color make up 95% of Texas’ population growth, and cities and suburbs are booming, 2020 census shows

 

Group White
2010 population 11,397,345
2020 population 11,584,597
2020 percent 39.75%
Increase 187,252
 
Group Hispanic
2010 population 9,460,921
2020 population 11,441,717
2020 percent 39.26%
Increase 1,980,796
 
Group Black
2010 population 2,886,825
2020 population 3,444,712
2020 percent 11.82%
Increase 557,887
 
Group Asian
2010 population 948,426
2020 population 1,561,518
2020 percent 5.36%
Increase 613,092

 

 

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2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:


corpus was the largest Texas city to vote trump over Biden

 

 

fuck, would have preferred to not know that
cross-out-people-to-kill.gif

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

I believe it. But it's not developing at the pace of Austin. Not even close. Only grew 4% from 2010 to 2020 compared to Austin's 20%

TIL Corpus is growing.

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1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

fuck, would have preferred to not know that
cross-out-people-to-kill.gif

TIL Corpus is growing.

I honestly thought it has shrunken but I guess it only feels small once you've seen so much bigger.

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3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:


corpus was the largest Texas city to vote trump over Biden

 

 

Don't think I ever went to Corpus. But I heard that there was a restaurant there that never changed their grease. When they moved to a new location, the had a police escort for their old grease, which they kept using in the new place.

A Corpus-person told me that. Not sure if true, but every time I hear the name "Corpus," I smell burnt grease.

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Growth in Texas goes both ways.  Tarrant County is a perfect example.  Suburban Morons elect a nut job in the primary.  Beto should get same numbers as against Cruz, but he does have a chance if the constellations align 

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7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

LOL, as opposed to now, where Republican legislators in Texas are getting fired up about tracking women who leave the state for abortion and filing criminal charges against those who would help them?  They have Paxton’s ear, and they are already threatening law firms who would aid women who leave Texas for an abortion.  You do realize that to accomplish what they are hoping to do, they will have to try and turn Texas into a police state.  They want to turn it into the very thing they claim liberals want.

Women are paying attention to that stuff.

As a father of a daughter, I am too.  Fuck Hot Wheels and Patrick.  

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8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

LOL, as opposed to now, where Republican legislators in Texas are getting fired up about tracking women who leave the state for abortion and filing criminal charges against those who would help them?  They have Paxton’s ear, and they are already threatening law firms who would aid women who leave Texas for an abortion.  You do realize that to accomplish what they are hoping to do, they will have to try and turn Texas into a police state.  They want to turn it into the very thing they claim liberals want.

Women are paying attention to that stuff.

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