Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Brisketexan 104226]

Just now, BabaYaga said:

It's a great thread, just don't want it to veer into the ditch

......like a Russian tank.

[Kel Varnsen 8425]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

It's a great thread, just don't want it to veer into the ditch

[The Dog 43716]

 

[BabaYaga 15190]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

[Born to Run 6420]

This.  It takes an incredible amount of time and capital to get things moving.  Then once production starts, you have to have the means to move it.  Again, this is why the pipelines are so important.  

A Q-Max tanker (The largest capacity super tanker) can carry about 266,000 cubic meters of LNG, equal to roughly 5.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas in the vapor form burned in furnaces, water heaters and kitchen ranges. That's enough to supply almost 75,000 U.S. households for a year.

Texas has two only LNG facilities. Germany would need a fuck load of tanker deliveries.

[BabaYaga 15190]

1 minute ago, Born to Run said:

A Q-Max tanker (The largest capacity super tanker) can carry about 266,000 cubic meters of LNG, equal to roughly 5.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas in the vapor form burned in furnaces, water heaters and kitchen ranges. That's enough to supply almost 75,000 U.S. households for a year.

Texas has two only LNG facilities. Germany would need a fuck load of tanker deliveries.

Yep.  It would be like the supply ship runs of WWII on a constant basis.  

[atomheartbevo 89304]

3 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Small number of Ukrainian forces already in the United States ahead of the invasion have been trained on Switchblade drones, senior U.S. defense official says

 

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1511737584166256648?s=20&t=upTsKHWvBuhuBXLOCzqHeQ

 It's well-known that we trained them like crazy in 2014 and 2015 (lots of Green Berets, and some US Army National Guard units that specialized in various systems/tactics) and presumably later than that (Western media interest waned as Crimea was locked up by Russia).  In December 2017, we sent them around 200 Javelins, with stipulations that they be kept in Western Ukraine and away from the warzone(s).  We didn't send much aid after that, and training was sporadic.  

In 2021 we dropped the restrictions and boosted the aid and Javelins, etc. were used in small numbers against the separatists/Russians, which apparently freaked out the Russians a bit.  It didn't cause the Feb 2022 invasion obviously since Putin had planned it for years, but it concerned the Russians that the Ukrainians looked to be capable of a very stiff resistance.  A lot of articles about the aid seemed focused on hard numbers (X amount of dollars, Y amount of missiles, etc.) and the loosening of restrictions on the aid we had provided, but lost in those articles were comments about us training the Ukrainians on "advanced" systems.

Obviously those "advanced" systems weren't Patriot batteries, but they also weren't Javelins since those were simple systems.

Makes me wonder if it was training for Switchblades, and other similar systems.  They were already using Bayraktar TB2 starting in 2019, so it wasn't those.

[BabaYaga 15190]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 It's well-known that we trained them like crazy in 2014 and 2015 (lots of Green Berets, and some US Army National Guard units that specialized in various systems/tactics) and presumably later than that (Western media interest waned as Crimea was locked up by Russia).  In December 2017, we sent them around 200 Javelins, with stipulations that they be kept in Western Ukraine and away from the warzone(s).  We didn't send much aid after that, and training was sporadic.  

In 2021 we dropped the restrictions and boosted the aid and Javelins, etc. were used in small numbers against the separatists/Russians, which apparently freaked out the Russians a bit.  It didn't cause the Feb 2022 invasion obviously since Putin had planned it for years, but it concerned the Russians that the Ukrainians looked to be capable of a very stiff resistance.  A lot of articles about the aid seemed focused on hard numbers (X amount of dollars, Y amount of missiles, etc.) and the loosening of restrictions on the aid we had provided, but lost in those articles were comments about us training the Ukrainians on "advanced" systems.

Obviously those "advanced" systems weren't Patriot batteries, but they also weren't Javelins since those were simple systems.

Makes me wonder if it was training for Switchblades, and other similar systems.  They were already using Bayraktar TB2 starting in 2019, so it wasn't those.

I'm guessing that we have quite a few "advisors" in country under any number of different cover stories helping train up the UA in a number of different scenarios, from weapons to medical 

[Bevo 13468]

7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Yep.  It would be like the supply ship runs of WWII on a constant basis.  

My brother runs a NG pipeline company and I know what he would say. US gas would increase production if Germany could guarantee purchase at market price for X number of years. All he would care about is ROI vs risk.

[BabaYaga 15190]

Just now, Bevo said:

My brother runs a NG pipeline company and I know what he would say. US gas would increase production if Germany could guarantee purchase at market price for X number of years. All he would care about is ROI vs risk.

Yeah, forecasting has to be a PITA

[Brisketexan 104226]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

My brother runs a NG pipeline company and I know what he would say. US gas would increase production if Germany could guarantee purchase at market price for X number of years. All he would care about is ROI vs risk.

This.  Other than the scale being super-large, it's not unlike a lot of other contracts for commodities that require large capital investments (water supply, electric generation, etc.) -- I'll manage securing a 100,00 acre-foot per year water supply if you'll sign a contract to buy that water, for X price (or X price formula) for Y period of time (X x Y x volume giving me my revenue yield against which I weigh my capital and O&M costs for that term).

If Germany wants Texas gas, and commits to buying a certain volume of LNG for a certain term at a certain price, folks will fast-track the terminals on either end.  

My separate question is whether there are other, closer NG sources.  I know Norway is no longer doing North Sea exploration and new drilling....but maybe they can/should?  But then, still the transport problem....need long pipelines, or LNG facilities.

[Bateshorn 9853]

9 minutes ago, Bevo said:

My brother runs a NG pipeline company and I know what he would say. US gas would increase production if Germany could guarantee purchase at market price for X number of years. All he would care about is ROI vs risk.

As it has been, as it always shall be. 
 

All of the things people are debating and using coded language can be true.  You can have a climate crisis that is threatening global peace and food security (among other things) and a total failure to forward look on Russian Aggression and EU energy needs dating back to the invasion of South Ossetia. 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

5 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

2.) Ukraine is considered the world's bread basket. China just bought a fuck ton of the available seed and grain on the world market because they were tipped off by Putin, and they had historic flooding. Russia has already directed no food exports to feed their own population. So with a likely worldwide shortage thanks to Ukraine being fucked, and Russia also lost an export good for their economy, tell me, where do you think there is going to be "cheap" food they can purchase? There won't be any cheap food anywhere in the world next year.
3.) With their shattered economy, who are they beating out on the economic market to buy these goods and food, when demand worldwide will be sky high? You think they can outbid other countries that need the same goods at this point? Even if there were cheap goods and  food they could purchase, do you think they're going to accept payment in shitty Rubles?

Peter Zeihan (former Stratfor guy here in Austin, writes on geopolitical issues, mainly focused on demographics/depopulation, etc.) has been beating this drum for a while, and in fact he said after the Crimea annexation that Russia would formally invade Ukraine within 8 years because of demographic problems, because they would run out of manpower.

Anyways, he's had a couple of long interviews a few weeks ago where he covers a lot of stuff around Ukraine/Russia/China, that I will post below and he seems to be one of the few talking not just about agricultural products such as grains in Ukraine and Russia being impacted (in terms of shipping elsewhere etc.), but he's talking about the problems that all of this is causing with regards to fertilizer production, and how because of the war and because of problems within China (that have nothing to do with the war), we maybe facing a situation where we don't have enough fertilizer going forward to help keep the world's agriculture churning along.

@Brisketexan would like him, because he's talked about how if Putin had rolled through Ukraine, he might have made a play for other parts of Eastern Europe including the threats of nuclear weapons, but he's very bullish on America/North America not facing the problems that Russia and China are facing both in terms of demographics and and in terms of agricultural production.

Yeah, this is very dry, and the interviewer is one of those business bros (who didn't understand Ukraine and was schooled by Peter), but fertilizer disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine could have a massive impact on the world in general going forward.

You can just listen to this - no need to watch it, and it's interesting as while I don't agree with everything he says, he makes an interesting point that this is the last battle/war of the Cold War, and that Russia is fucked within two generations.

 

[Bevo 13468]

3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Yeah, forecasting has to be a PITA

His business is all forecast. He doesn't produce the NG and he doesn't own the major pipelines. He takes the gas from the main pipelines to manufacturing facilities. So, his business is all finance. How much is it going to cost to get gas to a new Lockheed manufacturing plant (for example) and where is his breakeven? It differs a little from what we are talking about because he is not as tied to the cost of natural gas as producers are but he still needs to make sure that companies are going to use. Companies OTOH would want to increase or decrease use based on price compared to other energy products.

[Schulz2.0 28710]

 

[staboner 4955]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Also, looks like now that Orban's party won reelection, they are emboldened and going all-in on siding with Russia.

Cool.  Boot them the fuck out of the EU and sanction Hungary too.  Fuck around.  Find out.

just unreal. its hard to comment in complete surprise but still, a bit fucking surprised here. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

1 hour ago, PTINS said:

The US has incredible gas reserves and productive capacity. To unlock that capcaity, we need demand, a receptive political environment, and infrastructure.  

US gas storage (underground) is needed for US demand, it is filled and used annually on a seasonal basis.  US LNG plants and export terminals are basically at 100% capacity. US supply & demand is balanced as production is ~ equivalent to gas take away capacity.

LNG is the only practical way to get signifcant volumes of US gas to Europe, and LNG facilities are capital intensive, permits & construction take a very long time (5-10 years), and the facilities must be backed with long term contracts in order to secure financing.  Similarly, Europe needs to build LNG import terminals with equivalent capacity to unload the LNG.

Once all those things are in place, then we can begin to "ramp up production", assuming that companies, infrastructure, people, and equipment & supplies are available to meet the increased demand.  Keep in mind that every O&G company in the US lost money 2 years ago, many went bankrupt, and the industry had to pay to get someone to take the oil.  Those that survived did so by managing resources and expectations, which includes not getting to far over your skis because of a "one-time" world event, which happens about every 5 years.    The system will work, it just takes time.

It doesn't require socialism.  That new forward thinking mindset (socialist?) knee-capped the US O&G industry because "they" decided gas was bad. Now Putin has reminded the world what bad really looks like.

 

This correct. Except for the last sentence where you play the victim card. It is amazing an industry with record profits this quarter could claim being “knee-capped”. 

No one is canceling gas. No one is stopping you from producing gas. 
 

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, I appreciate the longcat basically agreeing with me. That being said, there is one point that muddies these waters, see the parts above. 

When I say it requires Socialism, I mean that the government basically has to have a method to tell/force companies to ramp up production. I'm not sure you've noticed, but Biden has been telling oil companies to produce more, and they've been telling him to fuck right off. For that dynamic to change, the US would have to take some form of control of these companies and MAKE Them produce. Which might or might be legal if he invokes the defense production act, I don't know. But my point was that right now companies can do whatever they want in regards to production. Now, as for your system to work and it takes time, I agree that other nations have to build and invest in those facilities. And hell, we might need to build more to "one day" meet demand. But a receptive political environment...I think we can all agree that we do not have thanks to partisan bullshit. 

I'm not saying America has to, or should become Socialist for this to work. What I am saying, for us to snap our fingers and ramp up production TODAY, there would have to be some serious fucking changes in our political structure, which isn't fucking happening. Because there is no receptive political environment. Gone are the days where any kind of crisis guarantees this country rallies behind a sitting president and puts aside it's differences.  So all we have is the invisible hand of capitalism "taking time to work." 

But yeah, I'm the guy who said there is no weening off the Russian energy tit for Europe above in this thread. And there's no real point to severely ramp up production right now because half of Europe doesn't have the facilities to receive the LNG. It's all a fucking mess. 

Yes. This. 

 

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

No shit.  Fuckers cry foul and forget that the government was literally wanting to plan to cease their operations just 6 months ago.  They don't give a fuck about anyone but making sure they get enough votes to stay in office and milk the teat.  

Sweet Jesus. Take a Valium. The government was not LITERALLY planning to cease their operations of private companies. 
 

[Parliament 14086]

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

OK, no more CR talk

We have waffled.  The EU has waffled.  Germany is mega-fucked, and Putin eats bags of cocks.....

And Oklahoma sucks.

[ABSR 5286]

9 minutes ago, staboner said:

just unreal. its hard to comment in complete surprise but still, a bit fucking surprised here. 

Orban and his party have control over most of the media....so it really shouldn't be a surprise.  Free press and free speech supports free and contested elections and ideas.  Hungary has been moving away from that for a decade.

[cactusflinthead 27588]

 

[Fico 1740]

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27588]

 

[staboner 4955]

1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

OK, no more CR talk

oh come on. i was really enjoying Putin vs Green energy pitched battle that page 499 became

[cactusflinthead 27588]

4 minutes ago, staboner said:

oh come on. i was really enjoying Putin vs Green energy pitched battle that page 499 became

Take it to the Oil Barons. Rex Beeper Porterhouse will love it.

 

[Brisketexan 104226]

14 minutes ago, Fico said:

 

 

 

[cactusflinthead 27588]

 

[cactusflinthead 27588]

Stop taking my picture and feed me you idiots

 

[Fico 1740]

26 minutes ago, Fico said:

 

 

 

Following this post, went to do a quick read about our Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša. He has been involved in as many wild ass good, bad, shady, surly things as you would expect from a longtime Eastern European leader. But he does have the nickname: Marshal Twitto

Edited April 6, 2022 by Fico
Surly

[CooterBrown 17851]

Google fu shows it takes 5 years to build a nuclear power plant. Maybe Germany should get started on a dozen of those.

[Orange&White 5516]

17 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Google fu shows it takes 5 years to build a nuclear power plant. Maybe Germany should get started on a dozen of those.

Maybe the rest of the world can make a giant donation of coats and blankets to the Germans and they can just skip buying NG until Putin is dead?

[Enchubben 5502]

In on 500. What a thread.

[Rockwell Torrey 1276]

Just now, Enchubben said:

In on 500. What a thread.

This.  Some smart, insightful broken brained assholes in here.

[Bateshorn 9853]

1 hour ago, staboner said:

just unreal. its hard to comment in complete surprise but still, a bit fucking surprised here. 

Without going CR, a free vote in Hungary is not necessarily a fair vote. 

[Schulz2.0 28710]

37 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Google fu shows it takes 5 years to build a nuclear power plant. Maybe Germany should get started on a dozen of those.

I don't think the majority of Germany cares enough to be that inconvenienced.

[Ghost of LL 15327]

Oh, wow--Page 500.  And some of y'all a few hundred pages ago didn't think Putin would actually invade.  Silly surls.  Don't you know that a Russian will always go Russian?

[atomheartbevo 89304]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Oh, wow--Page 500.  And some of y'all a few hundred pages ago didn't think Putin would actually invade.  Silly surls.  Don't you know that a Russian will always go Russian?

This post kind of aged well.

On 11/25/2018 at 4:36 PM, atomheartbevo said:

CNN is running it now.  BBC running it as their top story.  

Russia actively ramming Ukrainian ships is already a case of things getting out of hand. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

This is pure fear on full display.

 

[Celery Man 20832]

4 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

My paprika stocks are going to suffer!

Fuckin new world spice - can you believe that? Came from Mexico like everything else. Hungarians didn’t go apeshit for it until the 1800s

[Homercles 10205]

Add me as one of those people who stated on page 50 or whatever, that Putin wouldn’t invade.  I figured he was saber-rattling to squeeze Ukraine, raise the price of oil/NG, and cause general discourse.  
 

So yeah…me as news poured in that invasion was on:
 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

This is what guerrilla war is going to look like if it happens in SE Ukraine

 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Meanwhile....

 

[pops 6971]

In on 500 you beautiful bastards

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Insane

 

[cactusflinthead 27588]

Probably ought to be posted every so often

I don't post everything. That woman's shot up car and the aftermath. 500 pages in and there are a lot of victims. 

That kid hunkered down by his mom's grave.

That is gonna haunt me.

Sound up. 

[MillerEP 30311]

In the age of PET packaging, there is a "second army of the world" where food is packaged in glass jars. 🤮

 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

On 2/22/2022 at 6:56 PM, atomheartbevo said:

The regular/elite troops have some solid equipment, not as well equipped as our guys are, although I'm sure they have special operations units that are extremely well-equipped on par with our special operations folks.  I think Forgotten Weapons on YouTube has covered some of their newer rifles, or at least a few other channels have.

The conscripts and regular grunts, not so much.

From what I've heard/read over the years, much of the Russian defense money was poured into modernizing their aircraft, their tanks, and their heavy artillery/rockets, along with some naval upgrades.  They wanted a heavily integrated/"Shock and Awe" type of system like we displayed rolling into Iraq in 2003, which is convenient if you have neighbors you want to invade.

What they do have is better than the typical Ukrainian soldier or reservist, although it's possible enough Western stuff has been flowing in to improve things - I know the French and Brits have poured a lot of resources in since Crimea.

On 2/22/2022 at 6:56 PM, atomheartbevo said:

The thing about the Russian troops though, is how many actual infantry vs support they have, and whether the Ukrainians can force those infantry off of any "front lines" and into a position of having to guard supply convoys and whatever bases/hubs they build.

[Sbbruin 21690]

This one reminded me of the old "Battlezone" game.  I kicked ass at that.

[MillerEP 30311]

 

 

Legion "Freedom of Russia" 🤷‍♂️

 

[dimyh 1874]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Insane

 

Who could've guessed that this thread would hit 500 so quickly or that the Ukes would've destroyed nearly the same number of tanks in the same time frame.