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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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41 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This is a good thread from one of the best analysts on the Russian military. He’s raising a lot of the points made here, and for me the information about stop-loss was useful. He mentions the idea of raising second-tier infantry units to hold lines as better volunteer forces are trained and notes that Ukraine is on the clock to take more territory. 

I generally believe Russia is overall fucked on this, but there’s still a lot of damage it can do. 
 

 
 

 

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

That's a densely packed thread. I read it earlier today and on second reading these stand out.

 

 

Kofman is great, highly recommend.

 

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This is one of the bigger Russian YouTubers, he streamed this 7 hours ago and had nearly half a million watched it, for reference  

I can’t really stand him, because he pumps sunshine way too much, and always tries to find the positive side of things about living there.

He actually covered some of the protests in St. Petersburg today, around the 11 minute or so mark (I was skipping through) and around 21 minutes, and maybe more.

He doesn’t think the protests won’t work.

And around 16:30 some granny threw up some sign showing her fingernails painted in Ukrainian colors.

And around 17:50 somebody shoved/slapped him around for speaking English  

 

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I’m wanting to listen to this in the background later or tomorrow, but he starts off talking about his American ex-wife (Bunny or Bonnie), so it might be entertaining.  He’s wearing his Puma game shirt.  Since he posted a 59-second video this morning saying mobilization was a shitstorm, it should be entertaining.

 

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Conscript army doesn’t work in a foreign invasion against an enemy that accepts surrenders. 
 
That wasn’t the case in Vietnam. The N. Vietnamese and VC were like Comanches- they didn’t take prisoners and defeated survivors were tortured to death. That’ll get the least enthusiastic draftee to fight. 
 
Still, army career soldiers will tell you the US volunteer army is far superior to the one with draftees. 

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40 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I’m wanting to listen to this in the background later or tomorrow, but he starts off talking about his American ex-wife (Bunny or Bonnie), so it might be entertaining.  He’s wearing his Puma game shirt.  Since he posted a 59-second video this morning saying mobilization was a shitstorm, it should be entertaining.

 

Your name’s Petrovsky, Petrovsky.  Your wife is Bunny.   

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How is the Ruble stronger then it was a year ago??  Was talking to a friend of a friend about it who idk why but thinks all Ukraine news on Twitter or anywhere is propaganda.  He believes most areas of Ukraine controlled by Russia now prefer Russia, ect ect besides the point he’s brainwashed. He thinks Putin is just sending all the scrubs cause why send real troops, then why a draft, he’s like why not?  Why use the real troops? (Bar conversation)   But he said if Russia is in such a bad spot why is the Ruble higher then before the war?  I called bs then looked it up, wtf is going on?  Shouldn’t all these sanctions be having the opposite effect?

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2 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

How is the Ruble stronger then it was a year ago??  Was talking to a friend of a friend about it who idk why but thinks all Ukraine news on Twitter or anywhere is propaganda.  He believes most areas of Ukraine controlled by Russia now prefer Russia, ect ect besides the point he’s brainwashed.  But he said if Russia is in such a bad spot why is the Ruble higher then before the war?  I called bs then looked it up, wtf is going on?  Shouldn’t all these sanctions be having the opposite effect?

Mixture of commodity prices and the fact they aren't printing any currency right now (well, some...but way below usual).  Fiat currencies are different than treasuries (or whatever the fuck you call debentures in Russia)...they don't necessarily tag along an economic full faith and credit, or even circulation.  The USD doesn't necessarily track global currencies either.  Look at what we're doing alongside the Euro right now.  It ain't all because of inflation on our end or war on their end.  

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Just now, Gatorubet said:

You have shitty taste in friends.  Try to befriend smarter people. 

Hints the friend of a friend part at a bar.  It’s a valid point to bring up because globally the price of their currency is actually up.  I understand it inflated but also is the dollar by far.  Fake inflation by their government or not it seems the price should not be going up with all that’s going on.  @YGIFS and @The Dogexplained it best I think.  Still to a blind eye it makes no sense.  

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32 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Hints the friend of a friend part at a bar.  It’s a valid point to bring up because globally the price of their currency is actually up.  I understand it inflated but also is the dollar by far.  Fake inflation by their government or not it seems the price should not be going up with all that’s going on.  @YGIFS and @The Dogexplained it best I think.  Still to a blind eye it makes no sense.  

The short answer is that Russia instituted a series of currency controls right after the start of the war to prop up the ruble. People like Peter Zeihan covered it months ago. It's similar to Russia saying it's economy hasn't been hurt as bad as expected by the sanctions while not publishing certain economic data and expecting everyone to just trust them. It's bullshit.

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2 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

How is the Ruble stronger then it was a year ago??  Was talking to a friend of a friend about it who idk why but thinks all Ukraine news on Twitter or anywhere is propaganda.  He believes most areas of Ukraine controlled by Russia now prefer Russia, ect ect besides the point he’s brainwashed. He thinks Putin is just sending all the scrubs cause why send real troops, then why a draft, he’s like why not?  Why use the real troops? (Bar conversation)   But he said if Russia is in such a bad spot why is the Ruble higher then before the war?  I called bs then looked it up, wtf is going on?  Shouldn’t all these sanctions be having the opposite effect?

This guy provides a nice summary of sanctions and the impact upon the Russian economy to date. His delivery is a bit dry but he does slip in a few sly jokes such as oligarchs concerned about the changes in the building codes. (Why do the windows always have to be open?)

 

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1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

Hints the friend of a friend part at a bar.  It’s a valid point to bring up because globally the price of their currency is actually up.  I understand it inflated but also is the dollar by far.  Fake inflation by their government or not it seems the price should not be going up with all that’s going on.  @YGIFS and @The Dogexplained it best I think.  Still to a blind eye it makes no sense.  

There’s more going on as well.  Their central bank juiced the ruble back in the spring with capital controls and it actually went too high.  They’ve been trying to bring it down without much luck.  For the ruble, demand is pretty much all inside Russia and all that means is no one needs foreign currency. They don’t need it because importers are hit by sanctions and can’t pay for imported goods (that aren’t coming in any event) in dollars. 
 

And remember, a strong ruble actually eats away at profits when you are exporting dollar-linked commodities. 

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8 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Haha.

I an real man. You girly man need go fight while I insult you manliness. If you lose it is your fault.

They should start with that “one good push” line from All Quiet on the Western Front” soon.

They got any big dogs or Chimpanzees on the Donbas battlefront? 

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8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

So if they attack Ukraine with Russian weapons containing American built computer chips does that count?   Which is odd, because I could have sworn she said we were all morons and our equipment sucked and our soldiers sucked, and America sucks.  I don't understand how such a shitty country with shitty dumbasses are providing their most sophisticated weapons components.   

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20 hours ago, ABSR said:

I think they need grunts as badly as anything.   If I was a betting man I would place a large wager than very little of the 300K troops will be pulled from Moscow or St. Petersburg reserves.

I’ve read that Russia only has around 16M males between 18 and 35. Using extremely lax standards maybe half of them would be fit for service. There will be draftees from Moscow and St Petersburg 

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46 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I’ve read that Russia only has around 16M males between 18 and 35. Using extremely lax standards maybe half of them would be fit for service. There will be draftees from Moscow and St Petersburg 

Some people are about to get a nasty surprise. I was looking at an eligibility chart flying around Russian inter webs, and “junior officer conscript reserves” (that’s a LOT of people) are eligible up to age 50.

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Hmmmmm.....in a country where conditions are starting to go to shit, let's draft.....EVERYONE....give them a rifle, and tell them to go get slaughtered in a stupid and pointless war being fought solely to satisfy a deranged godking's folly.  Let's provide them no training, little/lousy food and clothing, and no real support.

Battleship Potemkin much?

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Hmmmmm.....in a country where conditions are starting to go to shit, let's draft.....EVERYONE....give them a rifle, and tell them to go get slaughtered in a stupid and pointless war being fought solely to satisfy a deranged godking's folly.  Let's provide them no training, little/lousy food and clothing, and no real support.

Battleship Potemkin much?

Try to get the oligarchs involved and the mixture gets interesting.

 

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Hmmmmm.....in a country where conditions are starting to go to shit, let's draft.....EVERYONE....give them a rifle, and tell them to go get slaughtered in a stupid and pointless war being fought solely to satisfy a deranged godking's folly.  Let's provide them no training, little/lousy food and clothing, and no real support.

Battleship Potemkin much?

Probably they'll give every other soldier a rifle since they may not have enough to go around.  They really haven't evolved much since the 1940's, have they?

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8 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

My question on the mobilization concept is where are they going to put them? Hell, before we get to training or equipment, the first question has to be where are they going to assemble that large of group (be it 50k or 300k or even 1M) to do intake and just basic concepts like providing uniforms and small arms.

How are they going to get those troops that are spread all across Russia to where ever to start the process? All of those people have to move across the expanse of Russia via rail. Most have to transit through Moscow and all of this will further tax their rail infrastructure.

If this is going to be a slow roll up of conscript, then it really doesn’t provide a significant boost for their war effort, but if it is a major fast mobilization it is going to chaos massive chaos on their already stressed internal rail transport.

 

I am more and more falling into this is more of a empty proclamation and saber rattling than a real mobilization. It’s almost like Putin is hoping this will bring the Ukrainians back to the bargaining table so he can have a diplomatic solution at this point than any real effort to provide major support to the cause.

 

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1 minute ago, Laxtonto said:

My question on the mobilization concept is where are they going to put them? Hell, before we get to training or equipment, the first question has to be where are they going to assemble that large of group (be it 50k or 300k or even 1M) to do intake and just basic concepts like providing uniforms and small arms.

How are they going to get those troops that are spread all across Russia to where ever to start the process? All of those people have to move across the expanse of Russia via rail. Most have to transit through Moscow and all of this will further tax their rail infrastructure.

If this is going to be a slow roll up of conscript, then it really doesn’t provide a significant boost for their war effort, but if it is a major fast mobilization it is going to chaos massive chaos on their already stressed internal rail transport.

 

I am more and more falling into this is more of a empty proclamation and saber rattling than a real mobilization. It’s almost like Putin is hoping this will bring the Ukrainians back to the bargaining table so he can have a diplomatic solution at this point than any real effort to provide major support to the cause.

 

They may well do something breathtakingly stupid, like put them onto potato trucks and ship them to a large field outside Moscow, piecemeal.  Where they will have no real place to live (maybe 20 men per leaky tent), no bathroom facilities, substandard food, insufficient winter clothing and heat (it's going to get cold there, and right soon).  If you wanted to put together a recipe for a mutiny, the Russians are hastily gathering the very best ingredients.

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

They are going to put them in uniforms, give them rifles, and send them all straight to the front lines. 

They will do this until they either win in Ukraine or all of their troops are dead.

Giving an untrained and pissed off conscript a rifle, no winter clothing, shitty food, and stuffing him in a train car and sending him to die with hundreds of his compatriots.....ALSO an excellent recipe for mutiny, except at the actual front lines.

Do that to me and my buddies?  We'd discuss it for a few minutes, shoot dead the officers trying to force us to go die, radio back to HQ and tell them the UKA is overrunning our position, they already killed officers Yuri and Gregor!.....and promptly surrender to the nearest UKA troops I can find.  Spend the next several months safe and warm at a UKA POW facility, not getting blown up by HIMARS and shit, and eating actual food.

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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Giving an untrained and pissed off conscript a rifle, no winter clothing, shitty food, and stuffing him in a train car and sending him to die with hundreds of his compatriots.....ALSO an excellent recipe for mutiny, except at the actual front lines.

Do that to me and my buddies?  We'd discuss it for a few minutes, shoot dead the officers trying to force us to go die, radio back to HQ and tell them the UKA is overrunning our position, they already killed officers Yuri and Gregor!.....and promptly surrender to the nearest UKA troops I can find.  Spend the next several months safe and warm at a UKA POW facility, not getting blown up by HIMARS and shit, and eating actual food.

that's what Wagner and the Chechens are there to prevent. attack Ukrainians or be shot.

we've already seen stories where there have been shootouts between those groups and regular russian army.

but how much longer can this go on? 

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24 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Some people are about to get a nasty surprise. I was looking at an eligibility chart flying around Russian inter webs, and “junior officer conscript reserves” (that’s a LOT of people) are eligible up to age 50.

Lol imagine what kind of physical condition your typical 50 yo Russian male is in

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