Jump to content

Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

Recommended Posts

Here's one of the better assessments I've seen of what's going on. Obviously short on specifics, and the guy admits he's parsing through a lot of Russian disinformation. But while he's pro Ukraine he's not rah rah. I've had mixed feelings about some of The Drive's reporting. I just don't know what to think of them so far, other than they're trying the best they can at making a living doing what they're passionate about. 

In any case, here's the article. Tons of twitter links so you can go further down the rabbit hole if you so desire:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-brings-claims-of-limited-breathroughs

Spoiler
 

As a new day dawns in Ukraine, there are indications Kyiv is making progress in its counteroffensive attack after a bloody first day that saw limited gains.

Ukraine has launched an attack largely focused in Zaphorizhzhia Oblast. As we predicted in December, it is designed to disrupt and eventually cut off the so-called land bridge to Crimea. On Thursday, the first full day of intensified action, Ukraine hit at locations in and around the largely destroyed city of Orikhiv, suffering what some U.S. officials said were “significant losses.”

 
 

That should come as no great surprise for an attack in an expected area with no air support against an enemy that has had many months to prepare. Meanwhile, the Russians too are almost certainly taking significant losses in both personnel and equipment, but that's not being highlighted by the Russian military bloggers who are providing the bulk of information regarding the front lines at the moment. Biases everywhere you look mixed with the fog of war mean that getting a clear picture of what is going on is nearly impossible, but some trends are emerging.

 

And while images are emerging on social media of destroyed Ukrainian equipment, including donated Leopard 2 tanks and other armor in both Zaporizhzhia as well as southern Donetsk Oblast where fighting is also taking place, some Russian Telegram channels are reporting limited breakthroughs.

 
 

“The enemy is pushing through our defense line on the Zaporizhzhia front,” Operation Z, a collective of Russian military commissars, journalists and volunteers, reported on its Telegram channel Thursday. “Armored groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are hitting one point.”

 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine “threw into battle up to 30 units of armored vehicles in a new assault near the town of Orikhiv, trying to break through our defenses in the Rabotino-Verbove area.”

The positions of Russia’s 291st regiment “have been under attack for more than a day,” says Operation Z. “According to the latest data, the enemy again managed to push through the defense line, ours retreated to reserve positions, the enemy is trying to gain a foothold.”

Many more Ukrainian troops await, Operation Z reported.

“In the near rear, the movement of columns of enemy equipment continues,” according to Operation Z. “The enemy has not yet thrown tank wedges into battle: a serious threat of a powerful offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains.”

Much of the fighting has been centered in and around the town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Google Earth image)
Much of the fighting has been centered in and around the town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Google Earth image)

“I do not share the joyful reports about the ‘defeat of the enemy,’” Dmitry Rogozin, “who is at the front with a group of military advisers,” Operation Z reported. “Yes, we repulsed the first attack. Yes, well done. But the enemy has not yet introduced the main forces of the breakthrough, primarily large tank wedges, has not driven them into our forward positions. And they are only in the vicinity of Orikhiv in the most tank-dangerous direction - about 600 tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, not counting the infantry fighting vehicles. Therefore, it is too early to rejoice, gentlemen. First, let's win, and only then we will ‘throw caps into the air,’” Rogozin said, according to Operation Z.

Though it has no air cover, Ukrainian forces are using drones and artillery to cover approaches to the battlezone, Russian propagandist Semyon Pegov said on his influential WarGonzo Telegram channel Thursday. 

“Despite the failure of the first attempt at a quick offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nothing has been completed on this sector of the front,” WarGonzo reported. “The boys are in for a tough night. We wish them good luck.”

“Ukrainian formations have been trying to break through the defense line of the Russian Armed Forces in the Orhikhiv sector,” the Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel reported. “Thanks to the competent actions of the defenders and the advantage in the air, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 40 armored vehicles, including at least four Leopard 2A4 tanks.”

However, “despite the failure of the Ukrainian offensive, it is too early to relax: the enemy is just beginning to seriously attack in the Zaporizhzhia direction. In addition, a blow should be expected in other sectors of the front.”

“The only area where the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to advance is Lobkove,” the Two Majors Telegram channel reported. ”The presence of the enemy remains there, from where the assault groups of the 128th Guards Brigade are trying to attack the positions of the [Russian] Armed Forces near the village of Zherebyanka.”

All this, of course, is the Russian viewpoint, so take that as you will, but it is hardly glowing for Russian forces and seems to set up an ominous situation in the hours and days to come.

During a briefing at the Pentagon Thursday, the Pentagon’s top spokesman declined to categorize Ukraine’s actions or the overall status of the battlefield.

“What I'm not going to do today is provide an operational update on ongoing developments on the battlefield,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. “Clearly Russia for some time has been building its defenses in Ukraine and in anticipation of a Ukrainian counter-offensive and so that's about as far as I'll go right now.”

Beyond seeing some Russian replacement forces, Ryder said that “I'm not aware of any significant large number of additional Russian forces coming in but of course, that's something we'll continue to keep an eye on.”

 

As we noted earlier in the day, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said without proof that the Russians had defeated the counteroffensive, with huge losses in personnel and equipment imposed on Ukrainians. Ukraine, meanwhile, has been mostly quiet on the subject.

There is a very long way to go in this effort and it is far too early to make any assessments of its success or failure.

We will keep a close eye on developments as the counteroffensive continues.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, kevwun said:

For some comparison, it took the Allies over a month of heavy fighting after D-Day before they finally had a huge breakthrough.  And it was jump started by one of the largest bombing operations in history.

No offense, but I don't see where D-Day is all that relevant of a comparison, other than the date, and one side was on offense while the other was on defense.

The fact is Ukraine only has 12 brigades they've formed made up of new western armor (and by new, I mean 40 years old). Many of the people in those brigades are newly mobilized. They have no industrial capacity to replace any losses. They have to go hat in hand for every single vehicle. There aren't any more Leopard 2A4s or better forthcoming. It's all Leopard 1s from what I can see, and the 31 M1 Abrams are older models that come with their own supply chain issues. 

They have no real close combat support. Both the planes and helicopters fly nape of the earth tactics and practically fling their air to ground missiles blind. The storm shadows are different because they can be fired at a safer range, but those aren't close combat support in any case. 

They certainly have no paratrooper capability, nor robust amphibious assault assets much beyond inflatable rafts. 

Unless the Russians show a discernible weakness in their lines at some point - and I'm personally convinced they will - it's going to be tough sledding. The assault teams will take a few meters. Support teams will then secure the area. Artillery will reposition. Rinse and repeat. Through minefields, entrenched positions, artillery fire, and against a more robust close combat air support. Oh, and across flat land with little topographical changes and limited cover of any sort. Which is both a strength and a weakness, but certainly leaves assault teams naked on approach.

From what I've read Ukraine is concentrating on taking strategic heights from which they can mount more attacks. In the Bakhmut region they're using veteran forces still utilizing their older equipment, and having success to the tune of 1.5 to 2 kilometers of advancement. 

Now, we also have huge fog of war issues, so who knows how up to date anything we're getting about the attack really is. But I do feel like it's safe to say we're not seeing any kind of Kharkiv style breakthroughs so far. Nor should we have expected any.

I feel extremely confident we haven't seen a wholesale "all in" type of attack, but we may not, either. This may be what the offensive looks like. I don't believe that, but I do understand a certain reluctance by Ukrainian command in committing assets that are very difficult to replace, in terms of both man and machine.

And remember, the Kherson offensive, while successful, apparently took a huge toll on both equipment and men. It could be we'll see a repeat of that offensive. I hope not. I hope they're able to achieve a breakthrough somewhere along the southern front that leads to a jail break. But anything which demonstrates this doesn't have to settle into an attritional war is a huge success in my opinion. So we'll see how it goes.  

  • Hook 'Em 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not D-Day itself, but the push inland.  The Allies bogged down after the landings and the German dug in in ideal defensive country.  It took some serious fighting to unseat them.  My point was that it could be a slog for quite awhile until they punch a hole somewhere.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Nivek said:


I am for healthy set of skepticism but I also caution against both-sidesing the issue. That the Ukraine military is conducting rescue missions in response, seems in character. It also seems in character that harming Ukrainians civilians and destroying towns is in Russia’s character.

It also benefits Russia by diverting troops to rescue efforts.

It harms Ukraine.

So the answer is clear to me who did it. Giving it more thought than this is buying into the doubt which is what Russia wants. This old tactic of muddying waters is easy to defeat and to understand.

That's not how an independent media operates, and you can't expect them to do differently. Now saying that, anyone that isn't a tool of the Russian propaganda machine either directly or indirectly that has a couple of synapses firing in their heads should be able to come to the conclusion Russia did it. I did that night. You could look at the devastation and know that came from a demolition from the structure itself. 

Since then there's been all kinds of confirmation. There's a seismic tracker that recorded an explosion in the area at 2am. There are eyewitnesses who saw no evidence of shelling or missile fire. There were Russian forces confiscating any type of flotation device on the left bank in the occupied areas in the weeks leading up to the demolition. There were Russian military stationed outside occupied villages who fired on the population when they tried to evacuate. There was Russian shelling of evacuation centers. There were numerous other smaller dams detonated across occupied areas. There's the fact that Russians are historical cock suckers who place no value on human life, either their own, and certainly not on anyone else's. 

But that doesn't change there's going to have to be a smoking gun for mainstream media sources to say Russia did it.

I went through a lot of this back in 2014. I knew it was Russian special forces that orchestrated the beginnings of the separatist movement. You could see them on video being recorded live by individuals peaking through their window with cell phones. I knew that the Russian army crossed the border, encircling and annihilating Ukrainian forces who were wiping the floor with the separatists. There were eyewitness reports from people in the Ukrainian paramilitary groups who saw it. But the media had to go along with the charade it was separatists in the Donbas region who spontaneously organized themselves as a protest against a Russian friendly president being kicked out with a Nazi friendly far right group taking power through a coup. All of it was absurd.

So sure, I hope no one tries to play that game on here. I haven't seen any sign of it. But to expect news organizations who ostensibly should be neutral parties rather than rooting sections flatly state it was Russia who did it without being able to cite a source beggars belief. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Estimates of the Russian defensive positions in the south. Should give a good perspective on the number of defensive lines to cross just to get to Tokmak. We will see how committed the Ruskies are if the counter offensive starts making breakthroughs and gains some momentum.

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Estimates of the Russian defensive positions in the south. Should give a good perspective on the number of defensive lines to cross just to get to Tokmak. We will see how committed the Ruskies are if the counter offensive starts making breakthroughs and gains some momentum.

 

Allegedly there are 6 defensive lines. It’s categorized as the most heavily fortified area in the southern region. So much so there are a ton of cheerleader analysts for Ukraine who think an offensive in that direction is just flat out dumb. 

I don’t agree. I don’t see how someone can know unless they’ve walked those fortifications, they know the quality and number of the personnel deployed there, and what the artillery, ammo, air support, and heavy armor availability is. 

And you discover that by making probing attacks to see how the enemy responds. 

I sure would be excited by a pending encirclement of Tokmak, I know that. But we’ll see. Don’t want to get my hopes up just yet. I want to mentally let Ukraine do their thang, whatever that may be. 

But refresh gets a bit worn out at times. Not going to lie. 

  • Hook 'Em 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

No offense, but I don't see where D-Day is all that relevant of a comparison, other than the date, and one side was on offense while the other was on defense.

The fact is Ukraine only has 12 brigades they've formed made up of new western armor (and by new, I mean 40 years old). Many of the people in those brigades are newly mobilized. They have no industrial capacity to replace any losses. They have to go hat in hand for every single vehicle. There aren't any more Leopard 2A4s or better forthcoming. It's all Leopard 1s from what I can see, and the 31 M1 Abrams are older models that come with their own supply chain issues. 

They have no real close combat support. Both the planes and helicopters fly nape of the earth tactics and practically fling their air to ground missiles blind. The storm shadows are different because they can be fired at a safer range, but those aren't close combat support in any case. 

They certainly have no paratrooper capability, nor robust amphibious assault assets much beyond inflatable rafts. 

Unless the Russians show a discernible weakness in their lines at some point - and I'm personally convinced they will - it's going to be tough sledding. The assault teams will take a few meters. Support teams will then secure the area. Artillery will reposition. Rinse and repeat. Through minefields, entrenched positions, artillery fire, and against a more robust close combat air support. Oh, and across flat land with little topographical changes and limited cover of any sort. Which is both a strength and a weakness, but certainly leaves assault teams naked on approach.

From what I've read Ukraine is concentrating on taking strategic heights from which they can mount more attacks. In the Bakhmut region they're using veteran forces still utilizing their older equipment, and having success to the tune of 1.5 to 2 kilometers of advancement. 

Now, we also have huge fog of war issues, so who knows how up to date anything we're getting about the attack really is. But I do feel like it's safe to say we're not seeing any kind of Kharkiv style breakthroughs so far. Nor should we have expected any.

I feel extremely confident we haven't seen a wholesale "all in" type of attack, but we may not, either. This may be what the offensive looks like. I don't believe that, but I do understand a certain reluctance by Ukrainian command in committing assets that are very difficult to replace, in terms of both man and machine.

And remember, the Kherson offensive, while successful, apparently took a huge toll on both equipment and men. It could be we'll see a repeat of that offensive. I hope not. I hope they're able to achieve a breakthrough somewhere along the southern front that leads to a jail break. But anything which demonstrates this doesn't have to settle into an attritional war is a huge success in my opinion. So we'll see how it goes.  

Agree. I think the Croatian Operation Storm in 1995 is more of a similar operation. Took time to prepare and to get going. Once the break throughs happened the Serbs were finally ready to go to Dayton and talk peace. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Storm

 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Disgusting. 

The moment when Kherson was shelled by Ruzzian Nazis during the evacuation of civilians. (No gore- it hits water)

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1667169809082007553?t=T44lyWxDuMiX3DhW5q9vFg&s=19 

 

Zelensky has been railing against the Red Cross and UN, but they’re in the same predicament. If Russians insist on artillery attacks against civilian staging areas you can’t expect aid agencies to go in there. 

If this was anyone but Russia (or China) NATO/US would likely be sending troops to temporarily secure the area so aid organizations can operate. 

They’re just a bunch of fuckheads. Always have been. Always will be. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

No offense, but I don't see where D-Day is all that relevant of a comparison, other than the date, and one side was on offense while the other was on defense.

The fact is Ukraine only has 12 brigades they've formed made up of new western armor (and by new, I mean 40 years old). Many of the people in those brigades are newly mobilized. They have no industrial capacity to replace any losses. They have to go hat in hand for every single vehicle. There aren't any more Leopard 2A4s or better forthcoming. It's all Leopard 1s from what I can see, and the 31 M1 Abrams are older models that come with their own supply chain issues. 

They have no real close combat support. Both the planes and helicopters fly nape of the earth tactics and practically fling their air to ground missiles blind. The storm shadows are different because they can be fired at a safer range, but those aren't close combat support in any case. 

They certainly have no paratrooper capability, nor robust amphibious assault assets much beyond inflatable rafts. 

Unless the Russians show a discernible weakness in their lines at some point - and I'm personally convinced they will - it's going to be tough sledding. The assault teams will take a few meters. Support teams will then secure the area. Artillery will reposition. Rinse and repeat. Through minefields, entrenched positions, artillery fire, and against a more robust close combat air support. Oh, and across flat land with little topographical changes and limited cover of any sort. Which is both a strength and a weakness, but certainly leaves assault teams naked on approach.

From what I've read Ukraine is concentrating on taking strategic heights from which they can mount more attacks. In the Bakhmut region they're using veteran forces still utilizing their older equipment, and having success to the tune of 1.5 to 2 kilometers of advancement. 

Now, we also have huge fog of war issues, so who knows how up to date anything we're getting about the attack really is. But I do feel like it's safe to say we're not seeing any kind of Kharkiv style breakthroughs so far. Nor should we have expected any.

I feel extremely confident we haven't seen a wholesale "all in" type of attack, but we may not, either. This may be what the offensive looks like. I don't believe that, but I do understand a certain reluctance by Ukrainian command in committing assets that are very difficult to replace, in terms of both man and machine.

And remember, the Kherson offensive, while successful, apparently took a huge toll on both equipment and men. It could be we'll see a repeat of that offensive. I hope not. I hope they're able to achieve a breakthrough somewhere along the southern front that leads to a jail break. But anything which demonstrates this doesn't have to settle into an attritional war is a huge success in my opinion. So we'll see how it goes.  

At this stage of the war, I think it's more analogous to the Hundred Days Offensive in 1918.  You've got the side on the offensive that is newly bolstered with American equipment, but has a lot of inexperienced troops.  And they're against a side that is well dug-in, but is lacking critical materiel and has pretty lousy morale.

But any analogy to a conflict from the last century is going to be very imprecise.  So it's probably best just to stay away from them.

  • Hook 'Em 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 37th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine filmed the mass escape of the Ruzzian invaders from the battlefield.

 https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1667138580156674052?t=LVerW-Zrn-G7Eh5yTrOUmg&s=19

The StratCom of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in one of the directions the Ruzzian invaders are fleeing, leaving their positions.
The first video is Zaporizhzhia.
This video is presumably also Zaporizhzhia

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1667164482349531136?t=_6EMmIZNqI5hFipOknCKCQ&s=19 

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Zelensky has been railing against the Red Cross and UN, but they’re in the same predicament. If Russians insist on artillery attacks against civilian staging areas you can’t expect aid agencies to go in there. 

If this was anyone but Russia (or China) NATO/US would likely be sending troops to temporarily secure the area so aid organizations can operate. 

They’re just a bunch of fuckheads. Always have been. Always will be. 

This is what I keep thinking about. At some point isn’t there an obligation to stop the wholesale slaughter of innocent people?

Is our stance that anything short of a nuclear attack won’t result in those capable of stopping these atrocities from taking action?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

This is what I keep thinking about. At some point isn’t there an obligation to stop the wholesale slaughter of innocent people?

Is our stance that anything short of a nuclear attack won’t result in those capable of stopping these atrocities from taking action?

Well it took over 4 years to get serious in Bosnia. And the Serbs did not have nukes. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...