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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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59 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 

 

 

I really appreciate that second map, as it puts into perspective how much of a slog this has been. Below, I zoomed in a little more to measure out a mile, and three wide open fields make up only a little more than a mile. This is some tough work.

 image.thumb.png.7c61955c537115c9281d92c34b7b284c.png

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50 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukraine is upset about the blocking of Ukrainian grain through several European countries because it fucks Ukraine's ability to move grain out of the country. Poland is getting pissy because they feel like Ukraine isn't being appreciative enough of what Poland has done foe them. That's about it.

I'm starting a conspiracy theory that Poland wants Ukraine to fail, so then Russian annexes Belarus and attacks one of the Baltics or Poland, and then Poland can conquer Belarus, Ukraine, and part of Eastern Russia and create a new Polish Empire, one that will rival the Kiwi Polish Empire.

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm starting a conspiracy theory that Poland wants Ukraine to fail, so then Russian annexes Belarus and attacks one of the Baltics or Poland, and then Poland can conquer Belarus, Ukraine, and part of Eastern Russia and create a new Polish Empire, one that will rival the Kiwi Polish Empire.

Well, if you go way back on this thread to late January 2021, you'll see me express the concern that Putin might, if he were really smart, approach Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland and offer to partition Belarus and Ukraine with an aim of restoring the pre-1939 borders.

Knowing what we know know, I think we can say that Hungary would've jumped at that offer.  I don't know about Slovakia and Romania.  Poland likely would've rejected it.  But who knows?

But had the offer been made and accepted, it would've prevented any effective Western response.  Ukraine would've never been able to defend against a Russian invasion carried out in conjunction with an invasion from the west.  But even if it had, the United States and the UK would've have any way of getting weapons into Ukraine.

But in any event, Putin isn't very smart.  And that isn't a Putin idea.  It's more like a Stalin idea.

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3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Germany has basically said they'll provide the Taurus missiles when we provide ATACMS.

 

Could be total bullshit, but I remember reading somewhere that Germany may have a legal issue with providing Taurus due to the related software needed to operate it. Can’t recall the exact details, but I think it was something like “once a country is given Taurus capabilities, they have the ability to counteract anyone else using Taurus missiles.” Because of that, their third-party contracts have a lot of guarantees to ensure Germany doesn’t just hand them out willy nilly. So there’s an enormous risk with them falling into the wrong hands. Again, that could be total bullshit

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58 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, if you go way back on this thread to late January 2021, you'll see me express the concern that Putin might, if he were really smart, approach Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland and offer to partition Belarus and Ukraine with an aim of restoring the pre-1939 borders.

Knowing what we know know, I think we can say that Hungary would've jumped at that offer.  I don't know about Slovakia and Romania.  Poland likely would've rejected it.  But who knows?

But had the offer been made and accepted, it would've prevented any effective Western response.  Ukraine would've never been able to defend against a Russian invasion carried out in conjunction with an invasion from the west.  But even if it had, the United States and the UK would've have any way of getting weapons into Ukraine.

But in any event, Putin isn't very smart.  And that isn't a Putin idea.  It's more like a Stalin idea.

Slovakia's government looks to be heading from pro-Western to pro-Russian.

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3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukraine is upset about the blocking of Ukrainian grain through several European countries because it fucks Ukraine's ability to move grain out of the country. Poland is getting pissy because they feel like Ukraine isn't being appreciative enough of what Poland has done foe them. That's about it.

 

Somebody loaned Z a suit and a razor! 
That’s gonna ruin his image.

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm starting a conspiracy theory that Poland wants Ukraine to fail, so then Russian annexes Belarus and attacks one of the Baltics or Poland, and then Poland can conquer Belarus, Ukraine, and part of Eastern Russia and create a new Polish Empire, one that will rival the Kiwi Polish Empire.

Kiwi? 
WTF are the New Zealanders doing in Eastern Europ?

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2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, if you go way back on this thread to late January 2021, you'll see me express the concern that Putin might, if he were really smart, approach Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland and offer to partition Belarus and Ukraine with an aim of restoring the pre-1939 borders.

Knowing what we know know, I think we can say that Hungary would've jumped at that offer.  I don't know about Slovakia and Romania.  Poland likely would've rejected it.  But who knows?

But had the offer been made and accepted, it would've prevented any effective Western response.  Ukraine would've never been able to defend against a Russian invasion carried out in conjunction with an invasion from the west.  But even if it had, the United States and the UK would've have any way of getting weapons into Ukraine.

But in any event, Putin isn't very smart.  And that isn't a Putin idea.  It's more like a Stalin idea.

zero chance any of them would have gone along with getting rid of a sovereign nation by force.  That's a Russian thing.  

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30 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It's obvious that Ukraine took out the air defenses of Sevastopol and now they are running train on it. 

And if Russia moves backups from elsewhere, that opens up gaps in those areas.  I doubt they'd pull air defense from Russia proper, so what part of the front do they want to open up to Ukrainian attack?

Meanwhile, thanks to Ukraine taking out air defenses and radars on those platforms and in Crimea, they appear to be opening up shipping from Odesa. It's like they are daring the Russians to get out into the Black Sea.

 

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27 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Evolution is one way to frame it.  Devolution is another. Then: we could hit places with a toy. Now: it takes a $10MM import. 

What? How big of a warhead do you think the drone had? 

22 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The drone hit it, but didn't really damage anything. The cruise missile is going to fuck it up.

This. 

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16 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, if you go way back on this thread to late January 2021, you'll see me express the concern that Putin might, if he were really smart, approach Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Poland and offer to partition Belarus and Ukraine with an aim of restoring the pre-1939 borders.

Knowing what we know know, I think we can say that Hungary would've jumped at that offer.  I don't know about Slovakia and Romania.  Poland likely would've rejected it.  But who knows?

But had the offer been made and accepted, it would've prevented any effective Western response.  Ukraine would've never been able to defend against a Russian invasion carried out in conjunction with an invasion from the west.  But even if it had, the United States and the UK would've have any way of getting weapons into Ukraine.

But in any event, Putin isn't very smart.  And that isn't a Putin idea.  It's more like a Stalin idea.

Reuters and the NYT are both sufficiently worried about the Slovaks and their election on Saturday. It appears that they have taken the Kremlin's bait hook, line, and sinker.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/not-single-round-slovak-election-could-see-kyiv-lose-staunch-ally-2023-09-21/

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2 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-black-sea-fleet-hq-up-in-flames-after-ukraine-missile-strike
 

“The headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean city of Sevastopol was in flames Friday after being hit by a Ukrainian missile. 

The latest Ukrainian success against Russian naval targets in the occupied peninsula was confirmed by the city's Russian-appointed governor, Mikhail Razvozhayev, who urged locals to avoid the city center in a post on the Telegram messaging app.”

More at the link but this is great 

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19 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukraine is upset about the blocking of Ukrainian grain through several European countries because it fucks Ukraine's ability to move grain out of the country. Poland is getting pissy because they feel like Ukraine isn't being appreciative enough of what Poland has done foe them. That's about it.

 

It sounds like everybody else here but me has this all figured out, but in the event there are others playing checkers, this CNN video interviewee says this is domestic political pandering for their upcoming elections next month.

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6 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-black-sea-fleet-hq-up-in-flames-after-ukraine-missile-strike
 

“The headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean city of Sevastopol was in flames Friday after being hit by a Ukrainian missile. 

The latest Ukrainian success against Russian naval targets in the occupied peninsula was confirmed by the city's Russian-appointed governor, Mikhail Razvozhayev, who urged locals to avoid the city center in a post on the Telegram messaging app.”

More at the link but this is great 

Quote

The hit on what should be the best-protected building in Crimea was further proof of Ukraine’s recent progress in degrading Russia’s air defense capability over the Black Sea—ending Russian air dominance not just over the sea itself but much of southern Ukraine. It came as a ship carrying more than 17,000 tonnes of grain left the Ukraine port of Chornomorsk as part of Kyiv’s campaign to reopen trade routes despite a Russian blockade.

george lucas foresaw so much

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4 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Maybe a token amount sufficient enough to provide Germany "cover" to send the Taurus?

Seems that way. It’s the same play as USA sending Tanks, once they said yes, the floodgates opened up for other NATO members to send them. This will have the same effect. 

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Just now, Gengs1 said:

Seems that way. It’s the same play as USA sending Tanks, once they said yes, the floodgates opened up for other NATO members to send them. This will have the same effect. 

I don't know what else is out there, outside of the Taurus (anyone else have the Ford product in their mind?) but I believe the UK and France have already sent their equivalents.

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25 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

george lucas foresaw so much

Apparently the Ukrainians have been hammering Russian comms/internet as well, so yeah.

7 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

A flying Ford Taurus would fuck some shit up.

5 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The Taurus has some stealth features and a slightly larger warhead than the Storm Shadow.

A 17 year-old in a Ford Taurus is going to try and fuck something.

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Reportedly the ATACMS for Ukraine will be armed with cluster bomblets as opposed to a single warhead.

Quote

But the cluster-armed version of ATACMS are more plentiful than those topped with a single — or “unitary” — warhead and are no longer considered a front-line U.S. weapon. From an estimated original production of 2,500, some from the early 1990s, an unknown number were later refitted with unitary warheads, according to a fiscal year 2018 Defense Department publication. But many of the cluster variant remain in stockpiles. Consideration of the cluster warhead ATACMS was first reported by Reuters.

Quote

 

According to a 2022 Army publication, different versions of the cluster-armed ATACMS contain between 300 to 950 individual bomblets. It was unclear whether the aging cluster weapons remaining in U.S. stockpiles have been subjected to the same updated dud rate testing as the 155 mm artillery shells.

Last spring, Britain and France provided Ukraine with cruise missiles with a range of about 140 miles — nearly three times as far as what was previously available to Ukraine, but about 50 miles short of the farthest ATACMS range.

 

image.thumb.png.a203d0c5a0adb49564f66cda6ee7b3e5.png

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/22/atacms-ukraine-cluster-munitions

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34 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Reportedly the ATACMS for Ukraine will be armed with cluster bomblets as opposed to a single warhead.

image.thumb.png.a203d0c5a0adb49564f66cda6ee7b3e5.png

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/22/atacms-ukraine-cluster-munitions

Worth noting that Storm Shadow likely has a significantly longer range than what is listed there. MDBA advertises range "exceeding 250km," so the Post just used 250km, but other sources indicate its range is up to 350 miles. It'll depend on the variant Ukraine has received, as some export variants are limited to 180 miles range. 

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20 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukraine is upset about the blocking of Ukrainian grain through several European countries because it fucks Ukraine's ability to move grain out of the country. Poland is getting pissy because they feel like Ukraine isn't being appreciative enough of what Poland has done foe them. That's about it.

 

The unstated thing is that for Poland and Ukraine to act pissy towards each other, it means neither one is all that scared of Russians.

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So if the move is to get the Germans to move forward with the Taurus, here is some background info.  The bunker buster capability could be huge for the Ukrainians.  If you go after the bridge with one of these, my guess is that you would penetrate the deck with the first charge and hit a column.  We've seen that the Russians can somewhat rapidly fix a deck, column would be more crippling.  All that having been said, getting key fortified bunkers may be more value.

 

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