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2020 Senate Elections


Patrick Bateman

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14 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Don't statewide winners in Mississippi have to also win a majority of the state's Legislature districts, or some goofy thing like that?

For governor I think that’s still the case. I heard it’s on the ballot to get rid of that this year. 

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Ok- so bold prediction (maybe not so bold) I’m predicting that there will be one and only one state where the Senator and the presidential candidate which that stage voted for don’t come from the same party and that will be Montana which will vote trump but ticket split in Senate. 
If I’m wrong about that it will be because we go 33/33 in those races. 
total and complete federalizations of the Senate. 
I also predict that the GOP senate candidates will run ahead of the president in every swing state race other than IA

 

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49 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Dem Flips -- Maine, NC (barely), CO, Zona, MT

GOP Flips -- Bama

Potential surprises:  GA, Alaska, SC, and IA

I think Dems win one from the surprise column.

Move MT to surprised column imo and add in another GA as there is two at play. 1 -3 surprises in play. 

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41 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

There's almost no way Warnock gets to a majority...... It's not really in play.  Only 1 seat in GA is in play and it may go to SE.

 

I think they might both go to a special and are both in play before it’s all said and done. So that bet won’t be finished until January. 
I’m assuming there’s a 3rd party or two in the oasis race as I’ve seen 95 percent electoral share. If I’m wrong and those are all undecideds sorry for partying. 

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46 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

you've been pushing montana, but i just don't think there is such a thing as a local election any more in a state that is so clearly red or blue.  

Very few places. WVA. MT. The dakotas. Keep in mind the challenger has won state wide races at the top of the ticket before. 
And Montana gonna be less red than you think. 

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Just now, StassneyHorn said:

If both GA senate elections go to a special and Trump loses, it’s going to be a massive momentum change. Add the rest of the country watching and talking about it for weeks

Agreed. That’s why I said put both GA’s in there and plan on 3 potential flips. 

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6 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

you've been pushing montana, but i just don't think there is such a thing as a local election any more in a state that is so clearly red or blue.  

You don’t think the democrat, who has won the governorship in Montana as a democrat, can’t win a senate seat?

Montana has medical marijuana btw. It’s not Wyoming. 

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MJ is a good candidate. She just couldn't get it done in this cycle  against a man with a solid machine working for him. We knew this was most likely going to be the case. 

Fuck calling it her fault. We have a lot of work still to get Texas to turn blue. Her name gets bigger now and she isn't done trying, I'm sure.

 

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9 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

 Her name gets bigger now and she isn't done trying, I'm sure.

 

Yes because she has lost 2 major political races. That's not a good thing to be known for. The whole cool biker chick tough campaign was dumb.

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13 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

MJ is a good candidate. She just couldn't get it done in this cycle  against a man with a solid machine working for him. We knew this was most likely going to be the case. 

Fuck calling it her fault. We have a lot of work still to get Texas to turn blue. Her name gets bigger now and she isn't done trying, I'm sure.

 

She should have been a good candidate. She should have actually ran a campaign. 

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23 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

MJ is a good candidate. She just couldn't get it done in this cycle  against a man with a solid machine working for him. We knew this was most likely going to be the case. 

Fuck calling it her fault. We have a lot of work still to get Texas to turn blue. Her name gets bigger now and she isn't done trying, I'm sure.

 

Nope, she ran an absolutely terrible campaign. 

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He had a machine and consistent money that he worked steadily. 

She had a good story, a motorcycle and progressive ideas....and a campaign consisting mostly of duct tape and bubble gum. You don't have to be done just because of conventional wisdom.  She is going to run in something that is realistic and figure out how to connect with closet misogynists that this state is filled with eventually.  How big a stable do you think we have? She can't stop trying just because this shit is hard. Beto couldn't get it done for fucks sake. This takes tenacity, imo. 

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31 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Nope, she ran an absolutely terrible campaign. 

I said this before, the first time I ever heard of her was when I saw her on my ballot in the voting booth. Multiply me x80% of the electorate. Everyone had heard of Beto by the time Election Day rolled around in 2018.

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