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2019 World Series: Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

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I don't think this is allowed.  We have to talk about the Yankees.  The Joe Buck out front shoulda told ya.

Edited by kevwun

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Hoping for no rain delays next weekend so that Verlander doesn't have another road start.

Cole v. Scherzer

Verlander v. Strasburg

Greinke v. Corbin

Peacock/Urquidy v. Sanchez

This is going to be one of the best pitching matchups we have ever seen.  Gonna have to run pitch counts up and get to the bullpen.

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Our fam witnessed all 162 regular season games this year. Looking forward to this series. I’ll be watching from section 225. Cole pitching Game 1 is magic.




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49 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Hoping for no rain delays next weekend so that Verlander doesn't have another road start.

Cole v. Scherzer

Verlander v. Strasburg

Greinke v. Corbin

Peacock/Urquidy v. Sanchez

This is going to be one of the best pitching matchups we have ever seen.  Gonna have to run pitch counts up and get to the bullpen.

And the Nats' bullpen is awful.

It'll be hard to chase Scherzer and Strasburg early, but Corbin and Sanchez hand out a decent amount of walks.  

Starters: Edge to Houston

Lineup: Edge to Houston

Bullpen: Solid edge to Houston

Astros in 6.  Maybe 5.

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35 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

And the Nats' bullpen is awful.

It'll be hard to chase Scherzer and Strasburg early, but Corbin and Sanchez hand out a decent amount of walks.  

Starters: Edge to Houston

Lineup: Edge to Houston

Bullpen: Solid edge to Houston

Astros in 6.  Maybe 5.

I have a buddy who works for the Nationals and is a huge Yankee fan. I am glad he gets to see the Astros come to town and that he gets to work that World Series.

Statistically speaking we have them in every category but they have been absolute wizards with RISP especially with 2 outs while the Astros mostly were atrocious in that arena. Hope the 6 days off has put some rust on their clutch mojo and for the first time in franchise history we are going into the series with the lineup set as ideally as possible.  First time in the state of Texas history that Game 1 of the World Series will be hosted there.

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Statistically speaking we have them in every category but they have been absolute wizards with RISP especially with 2 outs while the Astros mostly were atrocious in that arena.

 

That’s what slightly concerns me.

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I expect Houston's bats to be much better going forward.  Scherzer and Strasburg are fastball pitchers and we have a lot of guys who can square up a fastball.  We really struggled with Tanaka's nasty breaking stuff, Britton's sinkers, etc.  And we hit a lot of ropes right at guys.  Low BABIP = bad variance that should correct, etc.

And a new series can reset a lineup, just like when Springer was terrible in the 2017 ALCS then he was the MVP of the WS.  I think/hope we have several guys who are about to come around.

And yes, the Nats were red hot with RISP, but it's a small sample and the week off can't have helped them.  And here's Gerrit Cole to deal with.

I wish I could just fast forward to Tuesday night...

 

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10 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I expect Houston's bats to be much better going forward.  Scherzer and Strasburg are fastball pitchers and we have a lot of guys who can square up a fastball.  We really struggled with Tanaka's nasty breaking stuff, Britton's sinkers, etc.  And we hit a lot of ropes right at guys.  Low BABIP = bad variance that should correct, etc.

And a new series can reset a lineup, just like when Springer was terrible in the 2017 ALCS then he was the MVP of the WS.  I think/hope we have several guys who are about to come around.

And yes, the Nats were red hot with RISP, but it's a small sample and the week off can't have helped them.  And here's Gerrit Cole to deal with.

I wish I could just fast forward to Tuesday night...

 

If I recall, Springer wore a golden sombrero of G1 in the 2017 series. Then just went on an absolutely epic run starting G2. 

Nats starters are good. I think the key for the Astros will be to work the counts and get to their pen. 

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22 minutes ago, oh_snap said:

If I recall, Springer wore a golden sombrero of G1 in the 2017 series. Then just went on an absolutely epic run starting G2. 

He did hit his first HR in game 2 but the epic tear didn't really start for him until Game 4 when he went yard in 4 straight games.

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1 hour ago, Pimphand said:

I have a buddy who works for the Nationals and is a huge Yankee fan. I am glad he gets to see the Astros come to town and that he gets to work that World Series.

Statistically speaking we have them in every category but they have been absolute wizards with RISP especially with 2 outs while the Astros mostly were atrocious in that arena. Hope the 6 days off has put some rust on their clutch mojo and for the first time in franchise history we are going into the series with the lineup set as ideally as possible.  First time in the state of Texas history that Game 1 of the World Series will be hosted there.

I think it took the stros two series to get used to nothing but bullpen games from the opposition. The constant breaks in action and multiple pitchers each inning seemed to fuck with our rhythm. 
 

hopefully more traditional pitching usage will help the lineup preform as they are capable of. 

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A week off should hurt the nats as baseball is all about momentum. Anytime people say the NL sucks and it will be a sweep or 5 games it will end up going 7. And this Astros team makes things interesting so I will go Astros in 6 but all the games will be good. 

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Astros in 6 with same formula as Yanks.  We split 1 of 2 at MMP,  go 2 of 3 at their place, and lay the wood down in game 6.

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5 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

Astros in 6 with same formula as Yanks.  We split 1 of 2 at MMP,  go 2 of 3 at their place, and lay the wood down in game 6.

I say in 5.
2-0 in Houston

Win Greinke/Cole’s starts in DC - former NL pitchers and they can’t be any worse than Alvarez 

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Astros have a 72% chance of winning the series in Frangraph’s model. I can’t think of one with a heavier favorite.  Even the Indians had a 36% chance to win against the Cubs. 

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Just now, Fozzz said:

Astros have a 72% chance of winning the series in Frangraph’s model. I can’t think of one with a heavier favorite.  Even the Indians had a 36% chance to win against the Cubs. 

Hence why we are the second heaviest favorites since 07 Red Sox

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Ya’ll like starting pitching?

(Crosspost from Astros thread)

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/astros-nationals-a-historic-gathering-of-aces-11571659200

 

Astros-Nationals: A Historic Gathering of Aces

Houston and Washington will send the greatest combination of starters to the mound in a World Series since the adoption of earned runs as a statistic in 1913

 

 

 

 

When Bryce Harper rejected a $300 million contract offer from the Washington Nationals last off-season, they took more than half of the money they saved and spent it in an unlikely place. They signed a pair of starting pitchers, Patrick Corbin and Aníbal Sánchez, and inserted them into a rotation that already featured two aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.

 

At the July trade deadline, the Houston Astros proceeded with an equally surprising calculation. Despite possessing the American League’s second-best ERA at the time behind the lethal duo of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, they decided to trade four prospects to acquire Zack Greinke, another elite starter.

 

The moves defied baseball’s modern conventional wisdom and came with obvious risk. Not only did the Nationals and Astros add to their greatest strengths, they chose to allocate their resources—and pin their championship aspirations—on an area teams increasingly appear reluctant to build a roster around.

 

Their gambles paid off in a big way. The Astros and Nationals will meet in the World Series in what looks like a historic matchup of dominant arms. In an era that revolves around finding creative ways to navigate 27 outs with a parade of relievers, these two organizations proved that, sometimes, no strategy beats the original.

 

“Baseball’s changed a lot,” Nationals reliever Sean Doolittle said. “But if you have horses, they can carry you.”

 

Data wonks like to use a metric called adjusted ERA-plus to evaluate pitchers across the generations. Despite the fancy math required to calculate it, ERA-plus essentially attempts to answer a simple question: How did a pitcher fare in a given year compared to his peers?

 

An ERA-plus of 100 represents a league-average pitcher. Cole posted an ERA-plus of 192 in 2019, according to Stats LLC, which means he performed 92% better than average.

 

By this measurement, the Astros and Nationals will send the greatest combination of starters to the mound in a World Series since the adoption of earned runs as a statistic in 1913. For the first time, this Fall Classic will feature outings from six pitchers who registered at 30% above league average or better during the regular season: Cole, Verlander and Greinke for Houston and Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin for Washington. Four of those pitchers finished at least 50% better than average, and two, Cole and Verlander, came in at 75% better than average, both World Series firsts.

 

Together, this powerhouse group of six accounts for five Cy Young awards, an MVP and an average 2019 salary of $26 million. This winter, Cole will receive one of the largest free-agent deals ever awarded to a pitcher.

 

“Those guys that can go out and take the ball every five days are extremely valuable,” said Verlander. “They should be looked at as such.”

 

The current philosophy throughout the major leagues doesn’t necessarily agree with Verlander’s assessment. Relievers threw 42% of all innings in the regular season, setting a new all-time high for the fourth straight year.

 

Managers, buoyed by analytics, rarely allow their starters to face an opposing lineup more than twice in a given outing, resulting in many nights like the one this past Saturday: In Game 6 of the American League Championship Series, both the Astros and New York Yankees eschewed a traditional starter in favor of a “bullpen day,” using a total of 14 relievers, none for longer than 2 2/3 innings. After the Astros won, one of those relievers, Yankees setup man Zack Britton, admitted to reporters, “I still think starting pitching is what’s going to get you a World Series championship at the end of the day.”

 

For proof, just look to Houston and Washington. The Nationals trusted their starters to throw more than 65% of their innings, a MLB-high, while the Astros’ rotation threw 62% of their team’s innings, fourth-highest. They ranked second and third, respectively, in starter ERA, only behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, who compiled an NL-best 106 victories before falling to the Nationals in the division series.

 

So while new-age “bullpenning” can certainly succeed under the right circumstances, “There’s no doubt that having aces—and multiple aces—in the rotation relieves the pressure on the entire team,” Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said.

 

The challenge comes in accumulating those aces, a proposition that often requires a ridiculous amount of money and an iron-cast stomach. Between the constant threat of injury and natural regression, expensive pitchers often don’t pan out, and missing on a top-line starter can doom a franchise for years.

 

That didn’t stop the Astros from sending three players to the Detroit Tigers for Verlander in August 2017, two months before their first-ever World Series title. That winter, they parted with another four players for Cole and then four more this past summer for Greinke.

 

“There’s nervousness anytime you make a big deal like that because you’re taking a big chunk out of your farm system,” Luhnow said. Nonetheless, he made the three deals, knowing the potential consequences. Meanwhile, the Yankees, their vanquished ALCS foe, opted for relative austerity and repeatedly failed to shell out for a big-name starter. It cost them.

 

The Nationals took their reliance on starters to the extreme, focusing much of their financial capabilities on their rotation and valuing it more than anything else. Before the 2015 season, they gave Scherzer a seven-year contract worth a whopping $210 million, a remarkably bold choice for a 30-year-old pitcher. A year and a half later, they completed a $175 million extension to retain Strasburg, a former No. 1 overall draft pick. Last winter, they completed their trio with Corbin.

 

The gamble worked, with their starters enabling them to overcome a bullpen ERA of 5.66—not only the worst in baseball, but the worst for any team that ever reached the postseason. Mike Rizzo, the Nationals’ GM, believes strongly in the starter-first model. He served as the scouting director for the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks under general manager Joe Garagiola Jr. As Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling powered them to a title, Rizzo saw the importance of the starting pitcher firsthand, and he never forgot it.

 

“That was my foundation on how to build a championship-caliber club, and it’s stayed with me since then,” Rizzo said. “Good starting pitching is, to me, the key to any long-term success that you’re going to have.”

 

In many ways, the Astros and Nationals stand as opposite franchises in terms of how they operate. Led by Luhnow, an M.B.A. who entered sports from the world of consulting, the Astros pride themselves on their data-first approach, embracing analytics and technology perhaps more than any team in baseball. Rizzo assumed in his position from a traditional scouting background, and his old-school principles continue to inform the Nationals’ identity.

 

The two teams arrived in the same place and with the same backbone: in the World Series, led by starting pitchers who give hitters nightmares.

 

“Baseball has been around forever, and there are certain things that are truths,” Luhnow said. “There’s no need to reinvent things that aren’t broken.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And Sarris nerd analysis on what to watch for:

https://theathletic.com/1305134/2019/10/21/sarris-five-things-to-watch-for-in-a-pitching-nerds-dream-world-series/

 

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Astros in 5. Not seeing any chance the Nationals win this. But I picked Yankees in 7 last series so what the fuck do I know.

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As probably the only Nationals fan on this board, all y’all can fuck yourselves. This team was 19-31 in May and is playing for the World Series! What a season. Oh and the Dodgers were pretty heavily favored too. 
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15 hours ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

A week off should hurt the nats as baseball is all about momentum.

Oh noes! We won too quickly!

Scherzer and Strasburg are fastball pitchers and we have a lot of guys who can square up a fastball.  


 

The hottest of hot takes. Scherzer took a no hit bid into the 7th in the LCS and leads the majors in strike outs every year because he just doesn’t face lineups that can square up a fastball. 
 

The Nats may lose, but you guys are ridiculous 

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Is there a city worse than DC?  Gary, Indiana...maybe, although the people in Gary are probably nicer to be around.

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2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

As probably the only Nationals fan on this board, all y’all can fuck yourselves. This team was 19-31 in May and is playing for the World Series! What a season. Oh and the Dodgers were pretty heavily favored too. 
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Daddy shark duh duh duh, duh da duh?

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The Nats really aren't any better than the Rays and wouldn't have sniffed the playoffs if they were in the AL.  They have a really good rotation, but overall I don't know if their staff is as good as the Yankees' who had a lower SIERA and xwOBA while facing AL lineups and without their best pitcher in Sevy for almost the entire season.  

Edited by Fozzz

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3 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

The hottest of hot takes. Scherzer took a no hit bid into the 7th in the LCS and leads the majors in strike outs every year because he just doesn’t face lineups that can square up a fastball. 

Um, Scherzer is 8th in strikeouts.  Cole is 1 and JV is 2.

I didn't say he's not a badass.  I said that our lineup can hit fastball pitchers better than guys like Tanaka and Britton.  

Edited by TexArcher

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45 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

The Nats really aren't any better than the Rays and wouldn't have sniffed the playoffs if they were in the AL.  They have a really good rotation, but overall I don't know if their staff is as good as the Yankees' who had a lower SIERA and xwOBA while facing AL lineups and without their best pitcher in Sevy for almost the entire season.  

The Yankees didn't have German on the postseason roster you can't credit them for not having Sevy and not ding them for not having German.

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1 minute ago, Pimphand said:

The Yankees didn't have German on the postseason roster you can't credit them for not having Sevy and not ding them for not having German.

The credit for them performing better than the Nationals during the season without Sevy is so much bigger than the ding for not having lol German on the postseason roster that it doesn't really make a difference.  A healthy Sevy is one of the best pitchers in AL, while a healthy German is a mediocrity (see, e.g., his 101 FIP- for this season).  

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29 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Um, Scherzer is 8th in strikeouts. 

And he missed a few weeks bc of injury and is still 8th. Discount him and Strasburg at your own peril

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1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

And he missed a few weeks bc of injury and is still 8th. Discount him and Strasburg at your own peril

Literally no one did that.

Look, you said Scherzer leads the Majors in strikeouts every year.  If you meant "once in the last three years," you're correct.  

Edited by TexArcher

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The Nats starting pitching is every bit as good if not better than the  Astros but that’s the only unit that stacks up. The Astros have better hitting, bullpen and defense. I’d rank the pitchers 

1. Cole

2. Scherzer

3. Verlander

4. Strasburg 

5. Greinke

6. Corbin

7. Sanchez

8. Peacock/Urquidy

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Houston Astros pitcher gives World Series tickets to fans who were taunted at Yankee Stadium

CNN)Three Houston Astros fans needed a security escort after they said they were hassled in the stands at Yankee Stadium, but they're getting the last laugh.

Their beloved team is getting ready for the World Series, and they're going, too, thanks to Astros pitcher Lance McCullers Jr.
Cruz Arcia Jr., Nathan Rocha and Kristina Contreras were in New York to celebrate a birthday and managed to get tickets to Friday's Game 5 of the American League Championship Series.

The friends, who were wearing Astros gear, were heckled when they got to their seats, but they told KTRK that things got tense as the game went on. One guy tried to start a fight, they said, and onlookers threw food and a beer at them before police and security led them away.
"We thought we were going to be removed from the stadium, but some other New York fans told them we'd done nothing wrong," Rocha told KTRK. They said they were escorted to new, much better seats behind home plate, so they could watch the rest of the game.
They told KTRK that some Yankees fans have apologized on social media for the way they were treated.
Video was seen by millions of people on social media -- including McCullers, who had surgery in June on his right elbow.

McCullers was able to get in touch with Arcia on Twitter and offered to give them tickets to a game if Houston made it to the World Series.
"Fans of all teams should be celebrated for loving the game, not treated like that. I look forward to having you watch a WS game in the H on me," he wrote Arcia on Twitter.
The Astros earned their spot in the World Series on Saturday with a dramatic 6-4 win over the Yankees.
McCullers tweeted on Sunday that he'd see the fans at Game 1 and told them to bring their orange.
The Astros will host the National League champion Washington Nationals on Tuesday evening.

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1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

The Nats starting pitching is every bit as good if not better than the  Astros but that’s the only unit that stacks up. The Astros have better hitting, bullpen and defense. I’d rank the pitchers 

1. Cole

2. Scherzer

3. Verlander

4. Strasburg 

5. Greinke

6. Corbin

7. Sanchez

8. Peacock/Urquidy

 

Why do you have Scherzer over Verlander? Verladner has a better WHIP, BA, ERA and pitches a little more per start. The one thing Scherzer does better is strike out half of one more batters per 9 innings which is not much of a difference. 

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7 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

As probably the only Nationals fan on this board, all y’all can fuck yourselves. This team was 19-31 in May and is playing for the World Series! What a season. Oh and the Dodgers were pretty heavily favored too. 
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I really don't get it. But hey...sports.

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5 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

The Nats starting pitching is every bit as good if not better than the  Astros but that’s the only unit that stacks up. The Astros have better hitting, bullpen and defense. I’d rank the pitchers 

1. Cole

2. Scherzer

3. Verlander

4. Strasburg 

5. Greinke

6. Corbin

7. Sanchez

8. Peacock/Urquidy

I’d easily put Urquidy above Sanchez, who has not been good this season. 

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42 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Yeah shes an awesome human too!

 

 

 

Grade A cunt

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