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Markets still falling like whoa

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Yeah, your last sentence is what I'm thinking.  These ETFs hold corporate debt, but that debt has already been issued and the companies received the money from those bonds already.

Someone buys units of an ETF it's not like the companies are getting any more capital.  I guess it props up the overall corporate debt market to keep interest rates in check and provides a synthetic demand for more corporate debt until things get back to normal.  Is that the reasoning behind it?

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I guess it props up the overall corporate debt market to keep interest rates in check and provides a synthetic demand for more corporate debt until things get back to normal.  Is that the reasoning behind it?


What would you have them do with all the money they're printing? Buy baseball cards?

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1 hour ago, Parliament said:


 

 


What would you have them do with all the money they're printing? Buy baseball cards?
 

 

I haven't looked in a long time but I would imagine that my 1989 Upper Deck Jerome Walton rookie cards have substantially appreciated in value, right?

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5 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

I haven't looked in a long time but I would imagine that my 1989 Upper Deck Jerome Walton rookie cards have substantially appreciated in value, right?

No, but the Greg Jeffries is worth an absolute fortune.

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5 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, your last sentence is what I'm thinking.  These ETFs hold corporate debt, but that debt has already been issued and the companies received the money from those bonds already.

Someone buys units of an ETF it's not like the companies are getting any more capital.  I guess it props up the overall corporate debt market to keep interest rates in check and provides a synthetic demand for more corporate debt until things get back to normal.  Is that the reasoning behind it?

Yes, it’s to support companies future bond issuance. They’re gonna need to borrow a lot more. 

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Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

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7 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

The HK situation was going on prior to the Rona and had no impact on the market rally from late 2019 until Feb.

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Saw this chart yesterday. Not sure how far back they go with the data but it’s pretty interesting.

8c15353d2eddb1b4362e56ae5d5f3b5f.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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How long will equity markets keep shooting the moon when this starts picking up steam?

Quote

The monthly tally of defaults in the U.S. leveraged loan market has hit a six-year high, data from Fitch Ratings showed, as companies are either missing payments or filing for bankruptcy because of the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-debt-leveraged-idUSKBN22X1BD

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1 hour ago, milkman said:

Saw this chart yesterday. Not sure how far back they go with the data but it’s pretty interesting.

8c15353d2eddb1b4362e56ae5d5f3b5f.jpg


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Unless I’m missing something, that table is total bullshit. 

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5 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Unless I’m missing something, that table is total bullshit. 

Yeah, it does not make much sense at all. 

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9 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Unless I’m missing something, that table is total bullshit. 

Call it what you want but.......I stole this from the folks at Stockcharts.com. It’s a table showing average pre-holiday results over the last 50 years.

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Yeah, the average yearly return for the stock market is not 31 fucking percent over the last 50 years.  But that's basically what the table is saying if'n you buy two days before the New Year and sell at the end of the year.

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, the average yearly return for the stock market is not 31 fucking percent over the last 50 years.  But that's basically what the table is saying if'n you buy two days before the New Year and sell at the end of the year.

But but he saw it in the internet it must be true!

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17 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I guess it props up the overall corporate debt market to keep interest rates in check and provides a synthetic demand for more corporate debt until things get back to normal.  Is that the reasoning behind it?

I thought that's what the BRRRRRRRRRT was for?

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I just re-balanced into some lower expense funds due to a job change.  I'm sure that means the market is about to take a gigantic shit.

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19 hours ago, Baconboy said:

CSB: 4 or 5 years ago when NVDA was at like $38/share I got one of those typical cold calls from a fresh-out-of-school kid with a strong NY accent begging me to listen to his one tip and if it worked out promise I'd give him more to invest. His whole pitch was about NVDA and for the first time ever I thought to myself, "this pitch actually makes sense." I of course did nothing.

That's probably about the same time I bought PBT, which I'm still holding. Stonks!

I bought 2000 shares of NVDA in my Dad’s acct at 27 for the same reasons.  Sold them at 51, and used some of the money to buy AMD at 4. Sold the AMD at 12.  Jesus what I’d do to still have those positions 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, hornbri said:

Yeah, it does not make much sense at all. 

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading_strategies:the_pre-holiday_effect

Dataset is also 1928 to 1975. Still doesnt make any sense to me. For example:

Quote

To put those returns in perspective, if you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 Index in January 1928 and sold it all in December 1975, you would have ended up with $51,441. However, if you had invested one-ninth of your money just before each pre-holiday period (selling everything at the end of the year), you would have finished with $1,440,716. Not bad!

 

Edited by Blotto

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2 hours ago, hornbri said:

But but he saw it in the internet it must be true!

you really need to give proper references to your quotes

96 Best Abraham Lincoln memes images | Abraham lincoln, Lincoln ...

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16 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Billy Ripken Fuck Face imo

1972 Billy Martin...the OG

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3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I bought 2000 shares of NVDA in my Dad’s acct at 27 for the same reasons.  Sold them at 51, and used some of the money to buy AMD at 4. Sold the AMD at 12.  Jesus what I’d do to still have those positions 

Based on my math, if you'd have found some other money to buy those AMD shares instead of selling your NVDA, you'd have changed your $54,000 NVDA and $102,000 AMD into $722,000 in NVDA + $1,406,000 in AMD = $2,128,000.  

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22 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

if you'd have found some other money to buy those AMD shares instead of selling your NVDA

Should have had his old man take out a home equity loan to buy the AMD shares. And he claims to be a financial advisor?  Pshaw.

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32 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

checks in on futures...

 

 
American biotech company Novavax said Monday it started the first human study of its experimental coronavirus vaccine. The company said it expects initial results on safety and immune responses in July.  
 
 
Edited by LTtxfan

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With probably 50+ companies all working on vaccines, thats enough press releases to get the S&P over 4000 by the end of June. 

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On 5/22/2020 at 12:37 AM, TonyTexas said:

Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

Beijing could drop bombs on HK this morning and the US markets would rise 10%.  There is no logic any longer to this market other than a crap shoot.

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8 hours ago, Eastwood said:

My bet is on Pfizer coming out with the vaccine first.

AZ with Oxford vaccine would be my bet, if you put a gun to my head. 

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Beijing could drop bombs on HK this morning and the US markets would rise 10%.  There is no logic any longer to this market other than a crap shoot.

Invest with Bobby Axelrod and you’re golden.

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1 minute ago, troph said:


Invest with Bobby Axelrod and you’re golden.

LOL.  My one attempt at shorting (SNV) has blown up this morning too   Do you have his number?  Do I have to have more than $3k for Bobby's assistance?

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Say someone had a few thousand dollars they wanted to make a stonks bet on the S&P 500 going down in the next 6-12 months. What would be the best method for doing this?

I understand the concept of a put option and how they work, but don't understand how they are priced. Any good resources to learn about this? How do you know if they are "expensive" and if this information is already "priced in"? I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

Also, other than the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

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4 minutes ago, Southland said:

Say someone had a few thousand dollars they wanted to make a stonks bet on the S&P 500 going down in the next 6-12 months. What would be the best method for doing this?

I understand the concept of a put option and how they work, but don't understand how they are priced. Any good resources to learn about this? How do you know if they are "expensive" and if this information is already "priced in"? I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

Also, other than the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

if you wanted to get fucked out of your hard-earned money, you should just get married

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6 hours ago, Southland said:

A) I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

B)Also, otherthan the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

A) Stonk investors don't do that analysis.

B) If you are right, options will give you more upside to balance the 100% downside

 

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10 hours ago, Southland said:

Say someone had a few thousand dollars they wanted to make a stonks bet on the S&P 500 going down in the next 6-12 months. What would be the best method for doing this?

I understand the concept of a put option and how they work, but don't understand how they are priced. Any good resources to learn about this? How do you know if they are "expensive" and if this information is already "priced in"? I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

Also, other than the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

Free Resource with training/webinars on options:  The Options Industry Council (OIC)

OIC is an industry resource supported by OCC (Options Clearing Corporation) to provide trustworthy education about the benefits and risks of exchange-listed options.   Since 1992, OIC has been dedicated to increasing the awareness, knowledge and responsible use of options by individual investors, financial advisors and institutional managers.

https://www.optionseducation.org 

 

Also here's an article on simulators you can practice trading options on without any risk of losing money.... (OIC has a simulator on their website)

https://www.personalincome.org/best-options-trading-simulator-2020/

 

Edited by LTtxfan

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On 5/22/2020 at 12:37 AM, TonyTexas said:

Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

Chinese shenanigans you say?  Those were priced in, bro.  
 

But seriously, I called a rally here through summer a little over a week ago.  And I also admit that call would be the death knell for said rally.  Loaded up on some index funds and crossed my fingers.  That’s the best strategy these days.  To the moon!

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