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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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B00M

B00M 6248

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

...but it's spiking up significantly even in places with the strictest mask mandates and the highest rates of mask wearing like CA, NM...

You know CA and NM have plenty rural towns and Trump supporting anti-maskers right? Lots of the state is red. CA's governor really only barely eased up on restrictions for businesses even when their numbers were good for the last few months. The people are sick of it now when they need to be respecting it. These states also have a border with Mexico and big Hispanic populations that, as we've seen in Texas, tend to be more impacted by covid. 

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

Posted
Posted

The mask thing is yet another area where I think there's a reductive analysis.  I believe this guy is reducing potential spread for sure:

25818020-8098703-image-a-1_1583902535408

But this guy?  Doubt it:

Screen_Shot_2020-06-13_at_2.19.11_.2e16d

 

How many football games have you seen where the coach has his mask down, sees the camera, and pulls it up?  Or pulls it down to give a player or ref an ass-chewing?  Like this:

106712548-1600788995007-gettyimages-1274523613-em5_4281_2020092181505212.jpeg?v=1600789067

 

Same with the BS black gaiters I see most refs wearing. 

hi-res-0d90b47815e21c45966cc9f65397933f_

"Is he wearing a mask?" is kind of useless when all of that counts as a "yes."

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6227

Posted
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18 minutes ago, B00M said:

You know CA and NM have plenty rural towns and Trump supporting anti-maskers right? Lots of the state is red. CA's governor really only barely eased up on restrictions for businesses even when their numbers were good for the last few months. The people are sick of it now when they need to be respecting it. These states also have a border with Mexico and big Hispanic populations that, as we've seen in Texas, tend to be more impacted by covid. 

Now do San Fran.  They went from about 20 cases per day in early October to about 140 per day now. 

Untitled

 

That's not Trump supporters.  And it's also not people suddenly abandoning masking.  It's illegal to go anywhere in public there without a mask and compliance is as high there as we can probably reasonably expect it to be anywhere in the western world.  That was my only point.  

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VRHorn

VRHorn 718

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Posted
13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Gosh, maybe that's because mask usage isn't universal?  It's really not that hard to imagine why the virus might spike as temperatures cool and people spend more time indoors, not to mention when they are "guided" to ignore medical advice.  "Spiking" from a mortality rate of 0.01% to 0.02% is different than spiking from a mortality rate of 0.2% to 0.5%.  (Numbers wholly made up, don't get your britches wrapped around your "axle".)

Are you seriously a prof?

When I see a post of his, I always hope he's a beauty school prof, because he isn't too bright.

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B00M

B00M 6248

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1 hour ago, bschoolprof said:

Now do San Fran.  They went from about 20 cases per day in early October to about 140 per day now. 

Untitled

 

That's not Trump supporters.  And it's also not people suddenly abandoning masking.  It's illegal to go anywhere in public there without a mask and compliance is as high there as we can probably reasonably expect it to be anywhere in the western world.  That was my only point.  

Extremely similar population to Austin with roughly half the daily cases right now. And Austin is doing extremely well by Texas city standards. I don't think San Fran makes the argument you think it does. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
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Extremely similar population to Austin with roughly half the daily cases right now. And Austin is doing extremely well by Texas city standards. I don't think San Fran makes the argument you think it does. 
There are literally a dozen studies that show cities with high mask usage correlate to lower Covid cases and deaths that he is completely ignoring. He is not approaching the issue honestly and he's clearly dug into a politically driven position as outed by him bringing up Trump when nobody here is talking politics. He's being intentionally dishonest and doesn't deserve any of the effort we're giving trying to respond to him in good faith.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89304

Posted
Posted

Brazos County taking cases from El Paso - that's a 10- hour drive.  Shit, California is closer to El Paso than Brazos County.

Baylor Scott & White Health is saying they are taking covid cases.

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/11/23/local-hospitals-treating-covid-19-patients-from-el-paso-other-areas-of-texas/

On the one hand, Texas is a big fucking state.  On the other hand, that means West Texas hospitals must be closing in on capacity if they are shipping them that far east.

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Message Board User

Message Board User 12388

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Brazos County taking cases from El Paso - that's a 10- hour drive.  Shit, California is closer to El Paso than Brazos County.

Baylor Scott & White Health is saying they are taking covid cases.

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/11/23/local-hospitals-treating-covid-19-patients-from-el-paso-other-areas-of-texas/

On the one hand, Texas is a big fucking state.  On the other hand, that means West Texas hospitals must be closing in on capacity if they are shipping them that far east.

I doubt this (El Paso shipping patients to other cities) lasts too much longer as the situation there has been trending, sharply, in the right direction over the last week:

https://covid-texas.csullender.com/?tsa=I

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Willfully Horn

Willfully Horn 7911

Posted
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On 11/27/2020 at 1:09 PM, bschoolprof said:

  Even South Korea - held up in this thread as a paragon for really controlling this virus - has seen a massive uptick in cases recently.  They are likely the most masked up country on the planet.  

Well, they have five times as many people as Texas, and a tenth as many new cases today. And we have seven times more space in which to distance, and roughly half the number of large (1M, or so, population) cities.

So, are you saying efforts at mitigation aren’t successful because they only mitigate? Sure, the SKs do more than mask up, but those other things lead credence to their claim that not a single infection can be traced to their recent election, where  29,000,000 people voted. You know, masked up people.

https://undark.org/2020/10/05/south-korea-covid-19-success/

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

Well, they have five times as many people as Texas, and a tenth as many new cases today. And we have seven times more space in which to distance, and roughly half the number of large (1M, or so, population) cities.

So, are you saying efforts at mitigation aren’t successful because they only mitigate? Sure, the SKs do more than mask up, but those other things lead credence to their claim that not a single infection can be traced to their recent election, where  29,000,000 people voted. You know, masked up people.

https://undark.org/2020/10/05/south-korea-covid-19-success/

South Korea has 75% more people than Texas, not five times more.

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6227

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

 

So, are you saying efforts at mitigation aren’t successful because they only mitigate? 

 

No, that's not what I was saying.

Turning back to Texas, El Paso appears to have peaked, and Amarillo appears to have as well.  Possibly Lubbock.  So thankfully, things are looking better out west.  

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6575

Posted
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Not a great day for Travis County Saturday with 232 cases and 26 new admits. Deaths still aren't trending materially higher however which is a positive overall based on the increase in cases and hospitalizations and cases. There were 7 deaths last week, 100% of which were in the 60 years and up age groups.

~37% of cases yesterday sat in the 20 to 29 age group. Very low showing in the 60+ age groups relative to their normal contribution so this bodes well for lower deaths in upcoming weeks. (relative to current performance off higher cases, not the lows we were seeing before this second spike)

If you are planning on seeing elderly people you shouldn't. If they are planning on seeing you they shouldn't. Everyone has to make their choice obviously but math is math and if the person you are planning to see is >80 they have around a 23% chance of dying if they catch CV19.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/28  vs 11/27 1 7 14 86 49 31 30 13 0 1 232
% of Daily Change 0.43% 3.02% 6.03% 37.07% 21.12% 13.36% 12.93% 5.60% 0.00% 0.43%  
% of Total Cases 0.50% 2.99% 9.62% 27.66% 20.79% 15.39% 11.25% 6.46% 3.19% 2.15%   37,898
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89304

Posted
Posted

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/11/28/photo-texas-doctor-hugs-lonely-covid-19-patient-thanksgiving/6451760002/

spacer.png

Quote

Photographer Go Nakamura has visited a COVID-19 intensive care unit in Houston about 20 times, but he never gets used to what he sees there.

Taking photos too graphic to share; seeing patients one day who will be gone when he returns later in the week — there's no getting used to that, he told USA TODAY on Saturday.

Quote

But on Thanksgiving, Nakamura captured an image of compassion that has gained national attention as the United States reels under a record number of daily COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.

The photo shows Dr. Joseph Varon, clad in protective equipment, embracing a patient who has collapsed into his arms. 

In the moments before the photo was taken, the patient was clearly feeling "vulnerable ... lonely,” Nakamura said. 

 

 

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5052

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With 1:25 of Texans testing positive and either recovering or dying, what are post COVID survivors supposed to do? They have immunity and are non-spreaders, and there are quite a few of them. Do most of you just think they are uncaring "Dicks" if they don't wear a mask? Or do any of you consider that they had it and got over it? Should they just wear a mask to make others feel safe? Should they be required to wear "I Beat COVID" tee shirts?

CHIEF

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B00M

B00M 6248

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Posted
2 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

With 1:25 of Texans testing positive and either recovering or dying, what are post COVID survivors supposed to do? They have immunity and are non-spreaders, and there are quite a few of them. Do most of you just think they are uncaring "Dicks" if they don't wear a mask? Or do any of you consider that they had it and got over it? Should they just wear a mask to make others feel safe? Should they be required to wear "I Beat COVID" tee shirts?

CHIEF

I vote arm bands.

USP--2.jpg

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8795

Posted
Posted
With 1:25 of Texans testing positive and either recovering or dying, what are post COVID survivors supposed to do? They have immunity and are non-spreaders, and there are quite a few of them. Do most of you just think they are uncaring "Dicks" if they don't wear a mask? Or do any of you consider that they had it and got over it? Should they just wear a mask to make others feel safe? Should they be required to wear "I Beat COVID" tee shirts?
CHIEF

Gold jackets
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Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Bartles said:

You absolutely wear a mask in public. No need to give deniers another excuse to happily yell to everybody as they walk into CVS

bullshit.

Why would deniers go to CVS?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89304

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

With 1:25 of Texans testing positive and either recovering or dying, what are post COVID survivors supposed to do? They have immunity and are non-spreaders, and there are quite a few of them. Do most of you just think they are uncaring "Dicks" if they don't wear a mask? Or do any of you consider that they had it and got over it? Should they just wear a mask to make others feel safe? Should they be required to wear "I Beat COVID" tee shirts?

Based on their postings on Facebook and twitter, they think and act like they are rock stars, so maybe we could have them wear a gold star or something to show their celebrity status, or maybe tattoo the date they had it on their arm, since they love to tell you when they had it.

If you run into them and they aren't wearing a mask, and you ask them why, they could just roll up their sleeve and show the date they had it, or point to the star.

The star idea is more visible though, so that the anti-mask types are pointing them out saying "look, they don't have a mask, why should I have one?"  You can respond "look at the gold star, they've already had it!"

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5052

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Based on their postings on Facebook and twitter, they think and act like they are rock stars, so maybe we could have them wear a gold star or something to show their celebrity status, or maybe tattoo the date they had it on their arm, since they love to tell you when they had it.

If you run into them and they aren't wearing a mask, and you ask them why, they could just roll up their sleeve and show the date they had it, or point to the star.

The star idea is more visible though, so that the anti-mask types are pointing them out saying "look, they don't have a mask, why should I have one?"  You can respond "look at the gold star, they've already had it!"

Hedley Lamarr voice: Too Jewish.

CHIEF

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89304

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Sounds like you work for Big Gold Star. 
I say we break the windows of their storefronts- that way they know better than to not wear a mask. 

Opening the windows up would increase airflow, which can help, but I'd rather be in the business of selling air purifiers or fancy HVAC systems designed (at least on paper) to remove the dangerous 'vid particles.

Actually, if we come out of this with the the right mentality (Narrator: We won't), people who have to come to work sick will now wear a mask without any social stigmas, and more kids can stay home and do their schoolwork remotely for a few days, at least those whose parents can support that.

We could cut down on a lot of colds and flus in the winter months.  Nothing wrong with "toughing it out" if you have to work while sick, but at least now more people might mask up.

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5052

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's legitimate that recovered COVID people should question whether they need a mask or not. But its impossible to tell the recovered people from the liars so the only clear method is to say everyone has to wear it. 

What's going to keep people from lying about getting the vaccine and stop wearing their masks? 

CHIEF

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13388

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

What's going to keep people from lying about getting the vaccine and stop wearing their masks? 

CHIEF

I don't think that getting the vaccine will lead to people being allowed to forgo masks in places that it's required. I believe that the elimination of COVID will lead to masks being tossed aside.

And the vaccine is not proving to be 100% effective in eliminating COVID, so if you get a vaccine and believe that you're ok with that reason alone, it's still a big risk for you.

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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1930

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't think that getting the vaccine will lead to people being allowed to forgo masks in places that it's required. I believe that the elimination of COVID will lead to masks being tossed aside.

Yep, I think this is correct ... Travis County has to get back to Stage 1 to remove the mask requirement which means close to zero average new hospital admits over the past seven days.  Counties and cities have their own requirements.  So we are likely to all stop wearing masks at the same time, but it might be county by county and city by city, at least in Texas.

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11771

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CHIEF said:

With 1:25 of Texans testing positive and either recovering or dying, what are post COVID survivors supposed to do? They have immunity and are non-spreaders, and there are quite a few of them. Do most of you just think they are uncaring "Dicks" if they don't wear a mask? Or do any of you consider that they had it and got over it? Should they just wear a mask to make others feel safe? Should they be required to wear "I Beat COVID" tee shirts?

CHIEF

Depends on how many other people they infected and possibly killed.   

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, CHIEF said:

With 1:25 of Texans testing positive and either recovering or dying, what are post COVID survivors supposed to do? They have immunity and are non-spreaders, and there are quite a few of them. Do most of you just think they are uncaring "Dicks" if they don't wear a mask? Or do any of you consider that they had it and got over it? Should they just wear a mask to make others feel safe? Should they be required to wear "I Beat COVID" tee shirts?

CHIEF

If actual infections are truly 5 times or more the number of confirmed cases, should the sheer amount of people with antibodies start to reduce the spread at some point soon?

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Bevo

Bevo 13468

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

If actual infections are truly 5 times or more the number of confirmed cases, should the sheer amount of people with antibodies start to reduce the spread at some point soon?

Yes, especially with first responders getting vaccinated.

BTW, does anyone have info on which people can get vaccinated early and where to get vaccinated? I'm surprised I haven't received some sort of an announcement. I'll be first in line but what about my staff? My wife who works in the office part-time hasn't seen her mom in about 3 years and her mom probably won't live more than a couple years longer. She would like to see her mom over Christmas in central Washington but with 21 days between vaccinations it is unlikely we can get it done in time. The obvious answer is to just see her from a distance and have her fly back to see her in the spring.

She really doesn't know her grandkids and it would be good for them to see each other before she passes. My oldest is in college so if it doesn't happen over Christmas, it probably won't happen. Personally, I doubt it will happen unless I get him tested for antibodies and it turns out he has already had Covid. I guess that would also work for my wife and I if the vaccine isn't available for some reason.

Sorry for the rambling. Just trying to figure out a way to make it happen.

Edited by Bevo
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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1930

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

If actual infections are truly 5 times or more the number of confirmed cases, should the sheer amount of people with antibodies start to reduce the spread at some point soon?

The Texas antibody testing has been consistently showing around 15% of those tested for antibodies actually having antibodies, since about Aug 1st.  And that's kind of a self-selected population, since the tested people thought they might have them.  5x of the Texas cases is about 19% of the population.  Use the 5x number or the antibody number, it still isn't enough for 70% herd immunity.

Texas hospitalization data shows that the slope of the increase in the November wave was less than the July wave.  Maybe this is antibodies at work or some other factor.

 

 

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