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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


justhookit

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7 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I am in Travis, but drove out of county (grimes) to get my j&j shot in March. Wonder how many people have similar issues that are skewing the stats. 

I imagine quite a few. Damn near everyone i know who was getting the shot early had to go outside of Travis County. 

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Hold up. They're using where you got the shot, not where you live for county vaccination rates?

If Travis county is at 70% by that metric, we might be actually above 80%. With APH having trouble with the roll out in the beginning, all my family went to either Bexar or Wilco for they're shots.

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9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I know a huge chunk of this is that younger folks make up a large chunk of the unvaccinated population, but I'm also curious if it's because, putting aside vaccination status, they are willing to be a little more risky in their behavior (getting together in maskless groups, etc.).  

It seems like a lot of the older folks I know are still being careful, still not mingling in large crowds, still wearing masks, have cut down on errands/etc..

Again, I understand that it's a huge function of being unvaccinated here in July of 2021, but I just know quite a few olds that have changed up their daily habits.

It’s a lot of it. My 22 year old son, who is vaccinated, didn’t do shit outside the house for the last year and a half, last week he and some vaccinated friends went out to eat and had a get together afterwards.  I’m sure most in that age group are doing the same regularly.

 

1 hour ago, Deej said:

I imagine quite a few. Damn near everyone i know who was getting the shot early had to go outside of Travis County. 

I would think that your vaccination record reflects your county of residence, not just where you got vaccinated.

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1 hour ago, smoky said:

Hold up. They're using where you got the shot, not where you live for county vaccination rates?

If Travis county is at 70% by that metric, we might be actually above 80%. With APH having trouble with the roll out in the beginning, all my family went to either Bexar or Wilco for they're shots.
 

Which would also mean the rural county numbers are higher than actual. 

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If the majority of new cases are young people, and young people tend to do pretty well with covid, and delta is more contagious but less deadly than the other variants, then why are hospitalizations going up so much? I would think that young people testing positive would, for the most part, be sent home with mild symptoms. This new wave of hospitalizations, are there any metrics for it? What age are they, and why are they being hospitalized?

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4 minutes ago, XYZ said:

If the majority of new cases are young people, and young people tend to do pretty well with covid, and delta is more contagious but less deadly than the other variants, then why are hospitalizations going up so much? I would think that young people testing positive would, for the most part, be sent home with mild symptoms. This new wave of hospitalizations, are there any metrics for it? What age are they, and why are they being hospitalized?

If delta hospitalizes less frequently, but has a larger footprint of cases... It makes sense that it's driving hospitalizations by volume.

Which is why wearing a facemask even if you're vaccinated and getting vaccinated even if you've been previously infected is an important tool for us to fight the virus.

It's not about achieving 100% immunity, it's about shrinking the odds of getting infected or passing an infection along.

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5 minutes ago, XYZ said:

If the majority of new cases are young people, and young people tend to do pretty well with covid, and delta is more contagious but less deadly than the other variants, then why are hospitalizations going up so much? I would think that young people testing positive would, for the most part, be sent home with mild symptoms. This new wave of hospitalizations, are there any metrics for it? What age are they, and why are they being hospitalized?

I think we are pulling in hospitalizations from a larger area than cases. We have seen admits decoupled from cases for a long time now. Also it isn't like CV19 is less serious and the bulk of people getting admitted are unvaccinated. As all of the restrictions let up and everyone went back to life as normal in terms of bars, restaurants, events etc this has layered a decent number of admits on top of the steady state we had.

 

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2 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I think we are pulling in hospitalizations from a larger area than cases. We have seen admits decoupled from cases for a long time now. Also it isn't like CV19 is less serious and the bulk of people getting admitted are unvaccinated. As all of the restrictions let up and everyone went back to life as normal in terms of bars, restaurants, events etc this has layered a decent number of admits on top of the steady state we had.

Thanks for the response. Is it possible that the hospital admission criteria has changed from several months ago when most beds were occupied to now that there is space? I’m being hyperbolic here, but back when we were at close to 100% capacity, people were being told to go home and if your heart stops beating, call 911. Is it possible that now hospitals are admitting patients with only mild symptoms that before were being turned away?

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13 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Thanks for the response. Is it possible that the hospital admission criteria has changed from several months ago when most beds were occupied to now that there is space? I’m being hyperbolic here, but back when we were at close to 100% capacity, people were being told to go home and if your heart stops beating, call 911. Is it possible that now hospitals are admitting patients with only mild symptoms that before were being turned away?

That is entirely possible. I don't doubt that the admission criteria are more lax now than during the spike last year. There are a lot of beds still available for people to use.

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On 7/21/2021 at 3:50 PM, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

^ffs, see what I mean?

btw, I've noticed in every case people testing positive have taken Pfizer (not saying that it's only Pfizer, but both news stories and FB friend anecdotes point to this being a Pfizer problem). Does anyone have evidence on whether those with Moderna vax are experiencing similar infection rates? 

All the Yankees that had breakthrough infections were given the J&J shot.

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14 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

All the Yankees that had breakthrough infections were given the J&J shot.

I follow Dr Christine Mann on FB. She's an MD in RR who ran for Tx 31 last year. She reports all breakthrough cases that come through her office on her FB page, and it seems J&J is most common, but Pfizer and Moderna have both had a few. Again, small sample size of 1 GP office in RR. 

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2 hours ago, smoky said:

Hold up. They're using where you got the shot, not where you live for county vaccination rates?

If Travis county is at 70% by that metric, we might be actually above 80%. With APH having trouble with the roll out in the beginning, all my family went to either Bexar or Wilco for they're shots.
 

Probably goes both ways though as people were seeking out the vaccine wherever they could drive to get it, or in some cases fly cheap to Lubbock/Amarillo. 

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The bulk of people being admitted are unvaccinated.

The legit concern is the virus mutating perpetually among the unvaccinated to the point where the vaccine is completely useless and we are back to lockdowns. Source: sister who is internist.

Will a booster shot keep things under control? Hopefully.
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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

…which was a sharp turnabout from the agency’s position before May.  Funny how changing circumstances sometimes lead to changing guidance. 

inb4 people shitposting about scientists changing their position when they receive new data.

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Yep, based on new information, the experts have made a slight pivot which negates everything they've ever done.  Ever.  

In fact, we now know that the scientific method itself has long since disproven as a massive and hypocritical hoax perpetrated by Anthony Fauci, Copernicus, and a Dr. Trapper John.  

 

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27 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I follow Dr Christine Mann on FB. She's an MD in RR who ran for Tx 31 last year. She reports all breakthrough cases that come through her office on her FB page, and it seems J&J is most common, but Pfizer and Moderna have both had a few. Again, small sample size of 1 GP office in RR. 

She's my family Dr.

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On 7/24/2021 at 1:42 PM, scottsins said:


Y’all are over-analyzing this whole issue.
These CNA’s are people with online/bullshit certificates. They get paid less than employees starting at Dairy Queen…to change adult diapers, etc.

Broad brush and all, but it’s not hard to fathom these people being clueless AF.

Fun fact: when I used to have to handle hiring for my office, I automatically tossed every resume with “CNA” on it, straight into the trash.

I employ these people. Convincing the young AA CNA's and caregivers to get the shot is like pulling teeth. We simply don't have enough people available to provide 24/7 care to people in facilities without using some people that won't get vaccinated. They would rather test twice a week and wear PPE. This has been a really shitty 18 months to do this job. 

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36 minutes ago, Da Fino said:

I employ these people. Convincing the young AA CNA's and caregivers to get the shot is like pulling teeth. We simply don't have enough people available to provide 24/7 care to people in facilities without using some people that won't get vaccinated. They would rather test twice a week and wear PPE. This has been a really shitty 18 months to do this job. 

And do these people give an explanation for why not get vaccinated? What is it? Scared that it is an untested technology? “Muh rights”? Bill fuckin’ Gates is gonna control them with a joystick from his office?

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20 minutes ago, XYZ said:

And do these people give an explanation for why not get vaccinated? What is it? Scared that it is an untested technology? “Muh rights”? Bill fuckin’ Gates is gonna control them with a joystick from his office?

They've all "heard some things they don't like" about the vaccine. Between their dumbass friends and the news they don't know who to trust. I usually just give them a pamphlet that I assume they won't actually read.  

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20 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Scared that it is an untested technology?

One of my law partners, who is one of the more intelligent and rock solid people I know, gives this reason for not getting the vaccine.  She hasn't gotten the shot because she may have genetic predisposition to MS (her mother died of it a few years ago) and is worried about how a drug without full FDA approval might affect her.  And her daughter who's starting college this fall hasn't gotten the shots because she's worried about a potential link between the vaccines and infertility (which I believe has been debunked in scientific literature). I'm not sure I agree with her reasoning, but she's not a full anti-vaxxer, as her husband and son have gotten their shots.

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3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

hasn't gotten the shots because she's worried about a potential link between the vaccines and infertility 

An friend of mine gave this excuse, nevermind that she's divorced with 2 kids, dating a dude with 3 kids from a previous marriage, and a year away from 40.  And not surly 1%.

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The comical thing about the vax is that if you DO end up getting it and it is in any way significantly bad you are cruising to get a whole bunch of other drugs pumped into you that all have their issues and side effects.  

Here are the side effects of the most common prescribed drug in America....Atorvastatin, which we take in this country like fucking candy

Quote

In rare cases, atorvastatin can cause a condition that results in the breakdown of skeletal muscle tissue, potentially leading to kidney failure. Call your doctor right away if you have unexplained muscle pain, tenderness, or weakness especially if you also have fever, unusual tiredness, and dark colored urine.

Also call your doctor at once if you have:

muscle weakness in your hips, shoulders, neck, and back

trouble lifting your arms, trouble climbing or standing;

liver problems - upper stomach pain, weakness, tired feeling, loss of appetite, dark urine, jaundice (yellowing of the skin or eyes); or

kidney problems - little or no urinating, swelling in your feet or ankles, feeling tired or short of breath.

Common atorvastatin side effects may include:

joint pain;

stuffy nose, sore throat;

diarrhea; or

pain in your arms or legs.

 

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One of my law partners, who is one of the more intelligent and rock solid people I know, gives this reason for not getting the vaccine.  She hasn't gotten the shot because she may have genetic predisposition to MS (her mother died of it a few years ago) and is worried about how a drug without full FDA approval might affect her.  And her daughter who's starting college this fall hasn't gotten the shots because she's worried about a potential link between the vaccines and infertility (which I believe has been debunked in scientific literature). I'm not sure I agree with her reasoning, but she's not a full anti-vaxxer, as her husband and son have gotten their shots.

As long as she’s had an honest conversation with a real physician, then I respect her decision. And its serious enough, she should see a specialist.

But her personal calculus should also consider the longterm effects of getting infected with COVID, and possibly repeatedly, which have had some fucked up side effects. and unknown future consequences.

As a basic example, is when children get the chicken pox, they can later get shingles decades later as an adult.

And if she’s over 50 and refuses to get vaxxed, or has other preconditions, then she needs to take precautions for the rest of her life or until CoVid disappears, which it doesn’t look like it will anytime in the near future.

COVID is a shitshow. Until 90% of the world’s population gets vaccinated it will continue to be a shitshow. Unless we catch a break, and we wont.
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4 hours ago, XYZ said:

If the majority of new cases are young people, and young people tend to do pretty well with covid, and delta is more contagious but less deadly than the other variants, then why are hospitalizations going up so much? I would think that young people testing positive would, for the most part, be sent home with mild symptoms. This new wave of hospitalizations, are there any metrics for it? What age are they, and why are they being hospitalized?

The Delta variant grows much more rapidly in the body, and to far greater levels than Ye Olde Run-of-the-Mill Covid-19, and is much more infectious in the early stages of infection.

https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/covid-19-information/delta-variant.html

If a lot more young people are ending up in the hospital, it's because this thing is kicking their asses from practically the beginning.  The 2020 covid was slower growing, and young people had a better chance of shrugging it off.

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3 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I follow Dr Christine Mann on FB. She's an MD in RR who ran for Tx 31 last year. She reports all breakthrough cases that come through her office on her FB page, and it seems J&J is most common, but Pfizer and Moderna have both had a few. Again, small sample size of 1 GP office in RR. 

That sounds like a "Law of Small Numbers" situation.

APH/Travis County was saying that most of the breakthrough infections were Pfizer, simply because Pfizer was the most common vaccine given out in the county.

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1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

The comical thing about the vax is that if you DO end up getting it and it is in any way significantly bad you are cruising to get a whole bunch of other drugs pumped into you that all have their issues and side effects.  

That's what I've started telling a few anti-vaccine relatives.

Some act like they've read every fucking blog entry the Qanon/anti-vax crowd has pumped out about the vaccines, but they haven't read anything about what happens if they end up in the hospital, and what drugs will have to be used.

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50 minutes ago, RexWilson said:

I live in Wilco and got my shot in Travis so we cancel each other.

I live in a subdivision which his part Travis and part Wilco so I have to travel through both daily. I had appointments in Harris and Bell but I ended up doing it in Travis, bitches.

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So the way I read the current "guidance" from this afternoon, the CDC seems to be saying vaccinated folks need to wear a mask indoors in high transmission areas and near unvaccinated people because the viral load with Delta is so much higher. So the asymptomatic and minor symptomatic carriers carry a whole lot more virus than with the earlier flavors. Therefore it's relatively more likely a vaccinated person could actually unknowingly carry enough to spread.

In other words (and in keeping with the general idea that the mask is supposed to protect others, not you), it's not that they're saying Delta is enough worse/more virulent that you could give it to or get it from someone vaccinated.  But you need to do it to protect the unvaccinated.  

To which, with obvious exceptions like kids and some special cases, I tend to say "no."

Am I missing something?  They're not saying "the vaccine's not all that great against Delta" like Israel, are they?

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I've looked at State vaccine numbers each of the last 3 Tues.   From 7/13 to 7/20 the increase in first doses administered was only about 155K.    From 7/20 to 7/27 the increase was about 330K.    So Delta does seem to have some impact with the vaccine hesitant (or lazy) population over the past week.   A bit too little too late but maintaining that pace, combined with current rampant spread, hopefully improves the fall outlook.

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375 cases in Travis County today with 292 hospitalized & 60 fucking admits (most admits since Feb 5th). Get the fuck vaccinated if you are not already. You are fucking re-opening up for everyone. On a totally different note I recommend the "Woodstock 99" documentary on HBO Max. Watching that while doing this daily update so maybe it got me a little fired up.

Cases still skewing younger as they have been. Hopefully this keeps mortality low as it has been the past several weeks.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 7/27 vs 7/26 7 27 45 116 78 47 25 20 6 4 375
% of Daily Change 1.87% 7.20% 12.00% 30.93% 20.80% 12.53% 6.67% 5.33% 1.60% 1.07%  
% of Total Cases 0.64% 4.38% 10.60% 26.03% 20.73% 14.86% 11.11% 6.49% 3.15% 2.03%  
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Someone remind me why vaccinated people should be concerned about Delta? Even with breakthrough cases, it's very rare for an otherwise healthy vaccinated person to become seriously ill from Delta. 

Is the whole point that we should start masking up and distancing again out of concern for the unvaccinated people? The expectation is that those of us who have done the right thing should now take extra precautions to help people who are too selfish or lazy to help themselves?

This pandemic should be effectively over in the U.S. but we all still endure it because 40% of American adults won't get their vaccines. Meanwhile there are poor countries around the world where people desperately need vaccines but can't get them because they are sitting unused on a shelf in our country. There should be a cutoff date of September 15 where any vaccines that haven't been administered will be shipped to 3rd world countries and Americans just have to live with their decisions beyond that.

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12 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

Someone remind me why vaccinated people should be concerned about Delta? Even with breakthrough cases, it's very rare for an otherwise healthy vaccinated person to become seriously ill from Delta. 

Is the whole point that we should start masking up and distancing again out of concern for the unvaccinated people? The expectation is that those of us who have done the right thing should now take extra precautions to help people who are too selfish or lazy to help themselves?

This pandemic should be effectively over in the U.S. but we all still endure it because 40% of American adults won't get their vaccines. Meanwhile there are poor countries around the world where people desperately need vaccines but can't get them because they are sitting unused on a shelf in our country. There should be a cutoff date of September 15 where any vaccines that haven't been administered will be shipped to 3rd world countries and Americans just have to live with their decisions beyond that.

Because even if YOU won't get sick if you get a breakthrough infection, you could still pass it on to another person (who is almost certainly unvaccinated). More COVID burning through the unvaxxed is more chances for epsilon or zeta or eta variants to be worse. 

But you are right, we are all suffering because of idiot chuds who think that vaccines cause Jewish space lasers to target your 5G microchips. 

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