March 20, 20205 yr Is DJIA 15,000 out of the question? Seems like cash positions are growing exponentially even with the interest rate cut and stimulus news and without the impending unprecedented unemployment claims data and terrible quarterly earnings reports.
March 20, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said: Risk management is everything. Nice trading, padnuh. Gracias. Will wait for SOXS to drop back in the 20’s and sell in the 30’s. When it hits the 40’s (which it will), I’ll start buying in the 30’s and selling in the 40’s. Q2 earnings will be a disaster
March 20, 20205 yr 39 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said: Marcus not so Smart He once got lost in his own museum
March 20, 20205 yr 29 minutes ago, Henry Hill said: Is DJIA 15,000 out of the question? Seems like cash positions are growing exponentially even with the interest rate cut and stimulus news and without the impending unprecedented unemployment claims data and terrible quarterly earnings reports. I'll repeat my earlier prediction. Get out your Dow 10,000 hats. You''re practicing a cognitive bias known as anchoring. Edited March 20, 20205 yr by Thetexashammer
March 20, 20205 yr Just now, Thetexashammer said: I'll repeat my earlier prediction. Get out your Dow 10,000 hats. The bounce if it went that low would be like a super ball when we get to the other side, whenever that is.
March 20, 20205 yr 3 minutes ago, Sbbruin said: The bounce if it went that low would be like a super ball when we get to the other side, whenever that is. Even gold is down. Everybody is selling, everybody needs cash. It took ten years from the last crash to create enough jobs for everyone. The damage is literally incalculable. Mark Cuban donating money now is like the Christmas Truce of WWI. Edited March 20, 20205 yr by Thetexashammer
March 20, 20205 yr I think it's crazy to put some sort of entry number right now, because we have no clue how bad this could get. I think we'll just know when we've hit bottom. So you’re waiting for zero?Fair enough
March 20, 20205 yr Debated putting this here instead one of the other 90 other corona threads but really thought this op-ed from the WSJ last night hit the nail on head.To keep this markets-focused, I’m staying all cash until the tide turns on some of these suggestionsFinancial markets paused their slide Thursday, but no one should think this rolling economic calamity is over. If this govern-ment-ordered shutdown continues for much more than another week or two, the human cost of job losses and bankruptcies will exceed what most Americans imagine. This won’t be popular to read in some quarters, but federal and state officials need to start adjusting their anti-virus strategy now to avoid an economic reces-sion that will dwarf the harm from 2008-2009.The vast social-distancing project of the last 10 days or so has been necessary and has done much good. Warnings about large gatherings of more than 10 people and limiting access to nursing homes will save lives. The public has received a crucial education in hygiene and disease prevention, and even young people may get the message. With any luck, this behavior change will reduce the coronavirus spread enough that our hospitals won’t be over-whelmed with patients. Anthony Fauci, Scott Gottlieb and other disease experts are buying crucial time for government and private industry to marshal resources against the virus.Yet the costs of this national shutdown are growing by the hour, and we don’t mean federal spending. We mean a tsunami of economic destruction that will cause tens of millions to lose their jobs as commerce and production simply cease. Many large compa-nies can withstand a few weeks without revenue but that isn’t true of millions of small and mid-sized firms.Even cash-rich businesses operate on a thin margin and can bleed through reserves in a month. First they will lay off employees and then out of necessity they will shut down. Another month like this week and the layoffs will be measured in millions of people.The deadweight loss in production will be profound and take years to rebuild. In a normal recession the U.S. loses about 5% of national output over the course of a year or so. In this case we may lose that much, or twice as much, in a month.Our friend Ed Hyman, the Wall Street economist, on Thursday adjusted his estimate for the second quarter to an annual rate loss in GDP of minus-20%. Trea-sury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s assertion on Fox Business Thurs-day that the economy will power through all this is happy talk if this continues for much longer.If GDP seems abstract, consider the human cost. Think about the entrepreneur who has invested his life in his Memphis ribs joint only to see his customers vanish in a week. Or the retail chain of 30 stores that employs hundreds but sees no sales and must shut its doors.Or the recent graduate with $20,000 in student-loan debt—taken on with the encouragement of politicians—who finds herself laid off from her first job. Perhaps she can return home and live with her parents, but what if they’re laid off too? How do you measure the human cost of these crushed dreams, lives upended, or mental-health damage that result from the orders of federal and state governments?Some in the media who don’t understand American business say that China managed a comparable shock to its economy and is now beginning to emerge on the other side. Why can’t the U.S. do it too? This ignores that the Chinese state owns an enormous stake in that economy and chose to absorb the losses. In the U.S. those losses will be borne by private owners and workers who rely on a functioning private economy. They have no state balance sheet to fall back on.The politicians in Washington are telling Americans, as they always do, that they are riding to the rescue by writing checks to individuals and offering loans to business. But there is no amount of money that can make up for losses of the magnitude we are facing if this extends for several more weeks. After the first $1 trillion this month, will we have to spend another $1 trillion in April, and another in June?By the time Treasury’s small-business lending program runs through the bureaucratic hoops—complete with ordering owners that they can’t lay off anyone as a price for getting the loan—millions of businesses will be bankrupt and tens of millions will be jobless.Perhaps we will be lucky, and the human and capitalist genius for innovation will produce a vaccine faster than expected—or at least treatments that reduce Covid-19 symptoms. But barring that, our leaders and our society will very soon need to shift their virus-fighting strategy to something that is sustainable.Dr. Fauci has explained this severe lockdown policy as lasting 14 days in its initial term. The national guidance would then be reconsid-ered depending on the spread of the disease. That should be the moment, if not sooner, to offer new guidance on what might be called phase two of the coronavirus pandemic campaign.That will surely include strict measures to isolate and protect the most vulnerable—our elderly and those with underlying medical problems. This should not become a debate over how many lives to sacrifice against how many lost jobs we can tolerate. Substantial social distancing and other measures will have to continue for some time in some form, depend-ing on how our knowledge of the virus and its effects evolves.But no society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its overall economic health. Even America’s resources to fight a viral plague aren’t limitless—and they will become more limited by the day as individuals lose jobs, businesses close, and American prosperity gives way to poverty. America urgently needs a pandemic strategy that is more economically and socially sustainable than the current national lockdown.
March 20, 20205 yr 56 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said: I’m thinking 1750 where we pause and try to make a stand. Then, we go lower.
March 20, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Thetexashammer said: I'll repeat my earlier prediction. Get out your Dow 10,000 hats. You''re practicing a cognitive bias known as anchoring.
March 21, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, Dbeasy said: S&p 1800 is definitely in play 1 hour ago, Harrison Stafford said: I’m thinking 1750 where we pause and try to make a stand. Then, we go lower. I like the way you think - as I have a series puts that start at 310 and go down to 150, so as much as that would mean bad things to the economy (short-term I hope) I will have protected my IRA.
March 21, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Thetexashammer said: Even gold is down. ... Just FYI, because I know a lot of you peeps don't pay much attention to gold (or silver), but the spot price is down because of action in the futures market ("paper gold/silver"). No one is selling physical gold/silver. Quite the opposite in fact. Dealers are selling out of inventory and a demand shock is playing out.
March 21, 20205 yr Gave my sister a 1oz gold coin for her wedding. Hope she didn't try to sell it for the nominal/face value of €100
March 21, 20205 yr Well guys my step brother’s wife and her antivax mom group determined that the stock market is going to bottom out at zero. I didn’t bother asking if that was for the Dow or all public companies. I couldn’t handle any more stupidity. whatever it is, give me all of it. All of everything. Edited March 21, 20205 yr by heso
March 21, 20205 yr Thought this was a good read for those of us trying to stay the close and not time the market. 3 Charts that show why investors should stay the course
March 21, 20205 yr Man, my 401k money market fee sucks! S&P index fund .01%. 2040-50-60 etc are .06%. Money market is .11%?!? Wtf?
March 21, 20205 yr 51 minutes ago, heso said: Well guys my step brother’s wife and her antivax mom group determined that the stock market is going to bottom out at zero. I didn’t bother asking if that was for the Dow or all public companies. I couldn’t handle any more stupidity. whatever it is, give me all of it. All of everything. Lol good lord. Sad thing is they're probably rooting for it.
March 21, 20205 yr Whether it’s good or bad, yesterday I decided to shift an old 401k (~40% of my retirement money) to another custodian. This will keep that money out of the market for a week.
March 21, 20205 yr 31 minutes ago, Lurch said: Man, my 401k money market fee sucks! S&P index fund .01%. 2040-50-60 etc are .06%. Money market is .11%?!? Wtf? Is that your biggest problem?
March 21, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, hornbri said: Thought this was a good read for those of us trying to stay the close and not time the market. 3 Charts that show why investors should stay the course Wife went into total sell mode. She agreed to let me keep IRA at 70% stock as long as I locked in my losses and went conservative on the 401K. (They are each about equal amounts). I'm going to start buying back into stocks next week on the 401k. If my wife doesn't sleep, I don't sleep.
March 21, 20205 yr I am targeting week after next. I expect freak outs over seeing the actual UI claim numbers roll in and government capitulation to the impossibility of locking down entire states. If tanks roll in my view changes significantly.
March 21, 20205 yr Is that your biggest problem? No. Your point? It’s about $50/month in management fees that I wasn’t paying before. It sucks, as per post.
March 21, 20205 yr 26 minutes ago, tantric superman said: Wife went into total sell mode. She agreed to let me keep IRA at 70% stock as long as I locked in my losses and went conservative on the 401K. (They are each about equal amounts). I'm going to start buying back into stocks next week on the 401k. If my wife doesn't sleep, I don't sleep. Lulz my wife doesn’t even know what a 401k is. I don’t keep her apprised of market views for my sanity.
March 21, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said: Lulz my wife doesn’t even know what a 401k is. I don’t keep her apprised of market views for my sanity. Quote We don't sell stock to women. I don't care who it is; we don't do it. Nancy Sinatra calls, you tell her you're sorry. They're a constant pain in the ass and your never gonna hear the end of it. All right? They're gonna call you every furking day wanting to know why the stock is dropping. And god forbid the stock should go up. You're gonna hear from them every bleepin' 15 minutes. It's just not worth it. Don't pitch the bitch.
March 21, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, hornbri said: Thought this was a good read for those of us trying to stay the close and not time the market. 3 Charts that show why investors should stay the course I understand that market timing is impossible and usually not a good idea, but when markets are crashing like this there is no harm to have some dry powder available. You have to love those stories that say "If you miss the best single month you will miss out on a significant portion of overall positive returns" (to paraphrase). Yeah, no shit. But when the market starts off the month with a -15% move it's probably safe to bet it ain't going to be one of those "best months" that are so crucial.
March 21, 20205 yr 9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said: I understand that market timing is impossible and usually not a good idea, but when markets are crashing like this there is no harm to have some dry powder available. You have to love those stories that say "If you miss the best single month you will miss out on a significant portion of overall positive returns" (to paraphrase). Yeah, no shit. But when the market starts off the month with a -15% move it's probably safe to bet it ain't going to be one of those "best months" that are so crucial. Yes but if day 1 is -15% and days 2-30 are +1% each you still missed out. The point is you just don't know what is going to happen. I do get the point in having dry powder available, and if we all know for 100% certainty what was going to happen in the next week we would sell everything and buy puts.
March 21, 20205 yr 32 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said: Lulz my wife doesn’t even know what a 401k is. I don’t keep her apprised of market views for my sanity. Yeah, my wife has a long term hold philosophy. She has no idea that I'm neck deep it puts; although most of it is parlaying gains....so far it's gains
March 21, 20205 yr 13 minutes ago, hornbri said: Yes but if day 1 is -15% and days 2-30 are +1% each you still missed out. The point is you just don't know what is going to happen. No, you don't. But that doesn't mean one has to throw up one's hands and just buy and hold. Here's the deal: "buy and hold" is market timing. It just is. It is the most primitive version, but it is just as arbitrary as anything else. I've been out of the market except for a small pile of risk trading capital for probably a year. This had nothing to do with any sense that the market was overheated -- I did it for other reasons. But I'll say this: my market timing strategy that I use would have had me out of the S&P 500 at $3,226 or so. It's currently at $2,305. Is that evidence that my ridiculously simple means of "timing the market" works? Of course not. For one thing, I haven't yet seen a buy signal, and if and when it triggers if the S&P is above $3,226 then the concept failed in this particular case. And, as is almost always true, a strategy that works to get you out of the huge downturns often whipsaws during normal market ebb and flow, and that right there costs money. That said, just stop with the "we just don't know" bullshit. There are by definition a million different ways to time the market, and "buy and hold" is merely one. It is not infalllible and it for damn sure is not always the "best". If you're comfortable with it, great. Others aren't. Risk abounds. How will you deal with risk?
March 21, 20205 yr Why is this even a debate? Who gives a shit what anyone else is doing? We all have our reasons for making the decisions we make.
March 21, 20205 yr 48 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said: No, you don't. But that doesn't mean one has to throw up one's hands and just buy and hold. Here's the deal: "buy and hold" is market timing. It just is. It is the most primitive version, but it is just as arbitrary as anything else. I've been out of the market except for a small pile of risk trading capital for probably a year. This had nothing to do with any sense that the market was overheated -- I did it for other reasons. But I'll say this: my market timing strategy that I use would have had me out of the S&P 500 at $3,226 or so. It's currently at $2,305. Is that evidence that my ridiculously simple means of "timing the market" works? Of course not. For one thing, I haven't yet seen a buy signal, and if and when it triggers if the S&P is above $3,226 then the concept failed in this particular case. And, as is almost always true, a strategy that works to get you out of the huge downturns often whipsaws during normal market ebb and flow, and that right there costs money. That said, just stop with the "we just don't know" bullshit. There are by definition a million different ways to time the market, and "buy and hold" is merely one. It is not infalllible and it for damn sure is not always the "best". If you're comfortable with it, great. Others aren't. Risk abounds. How will you deal with risk? I am not telling anyone else to do it that is not comfortable with it. My post said "for those of us trying to stay the course". Of course any number of strategies might be better then others. My point was more once you pick one you should stick with it. Bouncing between different strategies is no strategy.
March 21, 20205 yr So are they going to borrow $5 trillion dollars, or just print it? I'm guessing they aren't going to borrow it.
March 21, 20205 yr 19 minutes ago, hornbri said: I am not telling anyone else to do it that is not comfortable with it. My post said "for those of us trying to stay the course". Fair enough. There is a large demographic for whom it's a pretty sound strategy: people who don't have the time or inclination to pay attention to the daily or weekly swings of the market.
March 21, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, Thetexashammer said: So are they going to borrow $5 trillion dollars, or just print it? I'm guessing they aren't going to borrow it. They can print 10Tr more. The dollar ain’t dropping in value anytime soon.
March 22, 20205 yr Quote Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) poured more than $1 billion into two of its prime money-market portfolios this week due to heavy investor withdrawals, according to a filing with the U.S. securities regulator. The Wall Street bank purchased $722.4 million in assets from its Goldman Sachs Financial Square Money Market Fund (GPMXX.O) and $301.2 million from its Goldman Sachs Fund Square Prime Obligations Fund. ... The bank repurchased securities from its two funds on Thursday after investors withdrew a net $8.1 billion from them during a four-day stretch, according to the disclosure. Industrywide, investors pulled tens of billions of dollars from prime money-market funds, which buy top-rated corporate debt. Although they are among the tamest investment vehicles, they can be riskier than portfolios that rely more on U.S. government bonds. The U.S. Federal Reserve rolled out three emergency credit programs this week to battle a global economic shutdown that has roiled the $3.8 trillion money-market mutual fund industry. The Fed is in effect encouraging banks to buy assets from those funds, insulating them from having to sell assets at a discount if they come under pressure from households or firms wanting to withdraw money. Weekly liquidity levels at the nearly $18 billion Goldman Sachs Fund Square Money Market Fund dropped to 34% on Thursday from 43% on Monday. SEC rules on weekly liquidity dictate that funds have to keep at least 30% of their portfolios in securities that can be converted to cash in five business days. During that four-day stretch, investors made $6.84 billion in net withdrawals from the fund, Goldman disclosures show. Goldman’s support is unusual, but it does not stand alone in supporting its funds during the coronavirus panic. Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK.N) also stepped in twice this week with a total of $2.1 billion to prop up Dreyfus Cash Management. That $10.5 billion portfolio was also hit by heavy investor withdrawals. BNY bought $1.2 billion from the prime money-market fund on Wednesday and then another $949 million on Thursday, according to fund disclosures, part of which was first reported by the Financial Times. If a prime fund’s weekly liquidity level falls below 30%, SEC rules give its board discretion to introduce redemption fees of up to 2% to slow down investor withdrawals. They can also put up gates for up to 10 business days. Those moves, however, would not be welcomed by investors. That’s why fund sponsors like Goldman and BNY Mellon can provide capital support so liquidity levels don’t drop below the threshold. Other fund sponsors have stayed more heavily weighted in liquidity. The recent market panic has been reminiscent of what happened in 2008, when money-market fund problems threatened to freeze up global markets. ... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-goldman-mny-mkt-ex/exclusive-goldman-injects-1-billion-into-own-money-market-funds-after-heavy-withdrawals-idUSKBN21810A
March 22, 20205 yr So refresh my memory. Wasn't it just the opposite in 2008? Money poured IN to MMA's? Or was it the same as this time?
March 22, 20205 yr If it’s pouring out of Money markets, where is it going? Moves to 250k fdic insured bank accounts can’t produce that much outflow can it?
March 22, 20205 yr My assumption is that businesses facing economic slowdowns, supply chain disruptions, etc. are pulling cash to make payroll and debt payments. People may be pulling cash to weather extended quarantine conditions. @Parliament - no, 2008 was the same problem in essence (cash outflows) : https://money.cnn.com/2008/09/29/news/economy/money_market/ Edited March 22, 20205 yr by bernorange
March 22, 20205 yr Didn't see too much shock and awe in this news this weekend. I'm tempted to gamble again, against small cap market. And to cut my losses on the (earlier) airline purchase.....cuz that was fucking stupid.
March 22, 20205 yr While true no panic news necessarily, the states are starting to fall one by one on shelter in place calls. There’s just not any good news, and short of a chloroquine miracle I don’t expect there to be any good news for a while. Just need one more nonsensical silly day of a bump to narrow a few losses then I cash out til it settles in the next few wks. Thinking stimulus might provide it but that’s just a band aid on a Bowie knife wound IMO.
March 22, 20205 yr Just now, bluto said: While true no panic news necessarily, the states are starting to fall one by one on shelter in place calls. There’s just not any good news, and short of a chloroquine miracle I don’t expect there to be any good news for a while. Just need one more nonsensical silly day of a bump to narrow a few losses then I cash out til it settles in the next few wks. Thinking stimulus might provide it but that’s just a band aid on a Bowie knife wound IMO. More like trying to superglue a gunshot exit wound
March 22, 20205 yr The rat bastards at Goldman Sachs predict -6% GDP for Q1 and -24% for Q2. You can not invest in a market with -24% GDP with a global economy at a standstill.
March 22, 20205 yr I think the numbers show if you're overly aggressive you shorten the time period that we have to shut the damn economy down. I think that allows a quicker transition to quarantining just the olds. If this administration believes this and it seems lately they have bought into the science just a bit more...I don't see how you don't shut domestic travel down for a week or two. Makes total sense and how much money is being made anyway with planes flying around at 10% capacity? Edited March 22, 20205 yr by ChiTownDoc
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