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Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

LTtxfan

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It's a large Texas forum. Every thread will largely be dominated by Texas posters. This is news? Not only that, it's funny in some form? My view is that the Big 12 will be fine as the 4th of 4 la

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FartingDreamer

FartingDreamer 138

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

When the Big 12 only gets one team into the playoff because their strength of schedule is dehydrated dogshit, Gundy may want that game back on the schedule. Until then, watch the fuck out Murray State. 

I disagree, if the Big 12 becomes a solid #3 conference, I can see them putting in 2 teams most years.  

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48823

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19 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

I disagree, if the Big 12 becomes a solid #3 conference, I can see them putting in 2 teams most years.  

Seems like just 1 team in the B12 will make the CFP in most years unless they become a 16 team conference...

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18502

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FartingDreamer said:

I disagree, if the Big 12 becomes a solid #3 conference, I can see them putting in 2 teams most years.  

Out of the 6 at large bids every year, I would be surprised if the Big 10 and SEC didn't have 5 of them. We saw what happened when Baylor or TCU should have gotten into the playoff over Ohio State... the committee flopped and the helmet team got the bid. And they went on to win the entire thing, btw. The SEC and Big 10 are routinely getting 2 of the top 4 now, and that's before OU, Texas, and USC jump ship. And the rest of the Big 12 is used to having Texas and OU lift their national perception while routinely scheduling as many patsies as they can. I have news for you -- that ship is setting sail come next year. 

No way in hell Oklahoma state is getting in if is even remotely close between them (with a pussy nonconference schedule) and the big name schools like OU, Texas, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Michigan, USC, Alabama, Penn State, Ohio State, etc. Sorry, it's just not happening. 

And being the solid #3 conference isn't really going to hold much water. The way it's going to look is:

1. SEC
2. Big 10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3-4. ACC or Big 12 (probably ACC - they have bigger name schools)
5. Pac 12 (or whatever it turns into)
6 Who cares / never heard of them

Edited by Mitch Cumsteen
forgot ACC - they're easy to forget, obviously
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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4973

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52 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

I disagree, if the Big 12 becomes a solid #3 conference, I can see them putting in 2 teams most years.  

If they continue to play 9 conference games and everyone schedules at least one P5 game then yes, I can agree.

If they go back to 8 and still only occasionally schedule P5 OOC opponents then no.

Also keep in mind, the 6 automatic bids for conference champions is going to be renegotiated in 2026. If a weak schedule Big12/P12/ACC team steals a shit bid from the Big Ten/SEC in the next 2 seasons then that won’t be forgotten. You could easily see a scenario where that pool shrinks to 4 autobids.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12394

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14 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

If they continue to play 9 conference games and everyone schedules at least one P5 game then yes, I can agree.

If they go back to 8 and still only occasionally schedule P5 OOC opponents then no.

Also keep in mind, the 6 automatic bids for conference champions is going to be renegotiated in 2026. If a weak schedule Big12/P12/ACC team steals a shit bid from the Big Ten/SEC in the next 2 seasons then that won’t be forgotten. You could easily see a scenario where that pool shrinks to 4 autobids.

This is not in the cards, I can guarantee it.

I think at this point everyone but Baylor is playing 10 P5 games every year.  We've been doing it ever since the 9 game slate came out.  WVU plays 11 some years.

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

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4 hours ago, ouflak said:

I know things are probably not finalized yet, but I'm sure I've heard from multiple sources that regular OU/OSU matchups will occur yearly in all sports except football.

I assume that's the case as well; likely because non-conference schedules for pretty much every sport except football is done a year in advance, not like a decade in advance.

And for the record, I'm for continuing Bedlam in all sports, including football.

I'm just sick to fucking death of listening to assholes try and say it's somehow OSU's fault that Bedlam is being interrupted when OU is who left the goddamn conference.

It's like one spouse leaving the other and then being like, "it's kind of shitty that you don't want to hang out with me as much any more" to the one who was left. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3435

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2 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

When the Big 12 only gets one team into the playoff because their strength of schedule is dehydrated dogshit, Gundy may want that game back on the schedule. Until then, watch the fuck out Murray State. 

We have at least one P5 school on our non-conference schedule every year in between now and 2030, including home-and-homes with Arkansas, Oregon and Alabama. I think we'll be fine in the SOS department.

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18502

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24 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

We have at least one P5 school on our non-conference schedule every year in between now and 2030, including home-and-homes with Arkansas, Oregon and Alabama. I think we'll be fine in the SOS department.

That would be just grand if you had those games plus Texas and Oklahoma still on your schedule. If you think byu and ucf carry the same kind of weight with the committee, good luck with that. Gundy is being a gigantic pussy but I promise OSU needs that game a lot more than OU does. 

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Evil Bill Obrien

Evil Bill Obrien 3104

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Let's just call the spades spades here: Bedlam is over because OU is leaving the Big 12 is true. You know what is also true? Okie State is gladly taking an opponent with near 80% winning percentage over them off the schedule and replacing it with a softer conference slate plus 1 token P5 OOC game. I wouldn't be in a huge hurry to put that near insta L game back on the schedule either if I was Mike Gundy and Okie State.

Side note: Mike Gundy seems to have gone from a spry, clean cut "I'm a man, I'm 40" to "I'm a hobo Santa Claus with great lettuce up top still somehow, I'm 55" very quickly:
 

 

 

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camel at sea

camel at sea 589

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58 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

I'm just sick to fucking death of listening to assholes try and say it's somehow OSU's fault that Bedlam is being interrupted when OU is who left the goddamn conference.

It's like one spouse leaving the other and then being like, "it's kind of shitty that you don't want to hang out with me as much any more" to the one who was left. 

The reason OSU is being blamed at all is because everyone at OSU who addresses this publicly sounds like a jilted lover instead of a long-time opponent.  It's pretty obvious Oklahoma State doesn't want to play the football game anymore (or Gundy at least doesn't) and that's why we're getting the "they left us" answer instead of a "we're working on it" answer.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21070

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17 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

They’re both meth riddled sister fucking schools, who gives a shit.

Well, certain schools really get off on beating at least one of those two meth riddled sister fucking school.  I can't quite recall who it was...but they  definitely give a shit. 

Anyways, OSU is being OSU.  They have some good fans but the school itself, and specifically the football program, has always had a little brother loser attitude.  Also similar to another school I'm thinking of.  

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21070

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3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Just a reminder, fuck this conference and Weiser.

2022 Holding Calls

Texas 8
Opponents 2(Texas Tech/Kansas State)

Oklahoma 7(1 was declined)
Opponents 2(Baylor)

Texas/OU 15
Opponents 3

The above does not include the Texas vs Oklahoma Big 12 game.

Yormark is right tho.  It's probably because OU/UT don't have the talent of these other schools...so they try to make up for it with holding.  Right. 

Prepare your anus for a monumental fucking this year.  Sucks worse for UT imo, as OU is in let's win some games mode, vs Texas who is a legit favorite to win the conference.  

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21070

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Posted
2 hours ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Let's just call the spades spades here: Bedlam is over because OU is leaving the Big 12 is true. You know what is also true? Okie State is gladly taking an opponent with near 80% winning percentage over them off the schedule and replacing it with a softer conference slate plus 1 token P5 OOC game. I wouldn't be in a huge hurry to put that near insta L game back on the schedule either if I was Mike Gundy and Okie State.

Side note: Mike Gundy seems to have gone from a spry, clean cut "I'm a man, I'm 40" to "I'm a hobo Santa Claus with great lettuce up top still somehow, I'm 55" very quickly:
 

 

 

Top half of his fat head 20.  Bottom half 60. He still means 40. 

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Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 18417

Posted
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3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Well, certain schools really get off on beating at least one of those two meth riddled sister fucking school.  I can't quite recall who it was...but they  definitely give a shit. 

Anyways, OSU is being OSU.  They have some good fans but the school itself, and specifically the football program, has always had a little brother loser attitude.  Also similar to another school I'm thinking of.  

Right, but that game is still happening. I don’t give a shit what they/y’all do the other 364 days of the year. Meth, sister fucking, or otherwise. 

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statsman

statsman 5369

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7 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Just a reminder, fuck this conference and Weiser.

2022 Holding Calls

Texas 8
Opponents 2(Texas Tech/Kansas State)

Oklahoma 7(1 was declined)
Opponents 2(Baylor)

Texas/OU 15
Opponents 3

The above does not include the Texas vs Oklahoma Big 12 game.

Don’t forget- the two holding calls against Texas opponents? Each of them was followed by a personal foul on Texas that kept the drive going. 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30023

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6 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

It's like one spouse leaving the other and then being like, "it's kind of shitty that you don't want to hang out with me as much any more" to the one who was left. 

What if the Sooners just got tired of fucking you and wanted some strange? That ends a lot of marriages.

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

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5 hours ago, Jasper_Jester said:

and one FCS school

Dear god, wtf is going on here.   Georgia plays Tenn-Martin, Ball Fucking State, and UAB next year.   Aggy plays Abilene, Louisiana Monroe, and the Lobos.  The Vols play Austin Peay and the juggernaut that is UConn.  Hail State plays SE Louisiana, Western Michigan, and Southern Miss.  LSU plays Grambling and Georgia State, while Arkansas plays the Catamounts and FIU.

Generally speaking, most SEC schools schedule like bitches.   A few, like Bama, schedule like Texas.   If you're pissy about other's schedules now, just wait for two years.

IMO, 10 P5 games should be the minimum allowed to qualify for the post season.  Schools need to nut up.

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royiv

royiv 9124

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2 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Generally speaking, most SEC schools schedule like bitches.   A few, like Bama, schedule like Texas.   If you're pissy about other's schedules now, just wait for two years.

Alabama has the murderer's row of Middle Tennessee, USF and Chattanooga on their schedule this season.

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 11901

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Serious Question 

I’ve seen someone post non-TX/OU opponent TV ratings. And they look fine. But is it possible that some of those TV ratings are influenced by the Texas/OU fan bases watching those games because of conference standing implications. Is there possibility of a significant drop off? Or are they mainly from their respective TV markets?

 

This is something I have been curious about as well. With the viewing habits of college football fans generally tiered as "their team", then the "top ranked team match ups", then "conference foes that somewhat matter", then "fuck those guys I will laugh if they lose", and then "shit I need to find another game and another beer", how does losing texas and ou out of the viewership pool impact this?

Texas fans now have much bigger reason to watch the random mid tier SEC matchup instead of the same B12 level game. Outside of an occasional "fuck those guys I will laugh if they lose" game for TT, TCU, or Baylor how many of the B12 games will now fall into the "shit I need to find another game and another beer" tier? How many Texas fans will now tune in to watch say KY vs Auburn now instead of a random ISU vs UCF? It used to be that Texas, OU and even A&M fans would pay at least some attention to the B12 2nd tier game because it impacted the conference standing and if Texas and OU made the title game.  Now, since the 1st and 2nd tier SEC games are guaranteed premium slots on TV, how many of those fans will be migrating from the #2 B12 game to the #3 or even #4 SEC game of the day?

Once the SEC move is done, I might occasional catch a B12 game (especially if realignment brings in a few additional fun rivalries), but for the most part if it isn't a top ranked matchup, the B12 game is going to be competing with everything else. When conservatively 1/2 of the total current B12 viewers are tied to Texas or OU, doesn't losing them have a much greater disproportionate impact of the 2nd and 3rd level of B12 broadcast (and in truth even the top ranked B12 game but that has been beat to death) than anything else? People have talked about the SEC bringing in A&M for the Texas market, but in truth the major shift in viewership will now happen because now A&M, Texas, and OU have no real reason to track the non-premium games in the opposing conferences. There is no reason for aggie fans to watch B12 games anymore. Outside of a few ""fuck those guys I will laugh if they lose" games, how many games will the non-diehard Texas or OU fan watch now on for the Big 12?

Edited by Laxtonto
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TexArcher

TexArcher 37414

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15 hours ago, FartingDreamer said:

I disagree, if the Big 12 becomes a solid #3 conference, I can see them putting in 2 teams most years.  

I think people are underestimating how much every 4-star and 5-star prospect is going to want to play in the Big 10 or SEC.  And if they want to play early, or if they'd rather be a star on a lesser team than a role player at Bama, there are going to be about two dozen schools in the Big 10 and SEC where they can do that.

The point being, I don't think there's going to be any solid #3 conference.  I think it'll take 5 or so years, but we're gonna end up with 2 super-conferences and a bunch of Conference USA's.

And yes, a certain amount, probably a lot, of the viewership of Big 12 also-ran games was Texas and OU fans watching a game that had implications for their own standings, or just to take a look at the team they were gonna play next week, etc.  I used to watch several non-Texas B12 games a year.  I will watch exactly zero after we leave.  And I'm pretty sure there are an awful lot of Texas and OU fans who feel the same.

Bottom line, this is worse for the left-behinds than they realize and/or want to admit.  

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62033

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18 hours ago, FartingDreamer said:

I disagree, if the Big 12 becomes a solid #3 conference, I can see them putting in 2 teams most years.  

The 6 at large bids will be money-driven choices first, and justified second. Outside of a known tv draw like ND, the lean to who gets in will be about known and valuable brands way before merit. No one is going to give two shits if 11-1 Oklahoma State gets snubbed for 9-3 Tennessee. “Should have won your conference” and a shrug will be the response to the fake outcry from pundits in the media and fans.

We’ve already lived this to some degree. It’s about to get a lot more absurd. Sorry about your delusion otherwise. 

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

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This playoff count thing is a bit more difficult to read.   While I agree that there will be a weighting of brands, at some point losses matter.  Generally, there is a big argument over who is the top team, out of two, rarely is it the top team out of four, which is what you'd need to get 3 in the at large, since the CCG champ gets a bye.   I think the B1G/SEC having four in any year is about as rare as the ACC/B12 having 3.   Much more likely the B1G/SEC will always get 3 in and sometimes one of them will creep in a 4th, while one only gets two in a rare year. Along the way, the ACC/B12 manage two a year, in the years their best non-champ has 2 or less losses.

Autos:  SEC, B1G, ACC, B12, PAC, G5

At large/year: B1G/SEC - 2, ACC/B12 - .75, Pac - .5  (mostly due to 9 conf games with 10 teams)

Last year the count would have been:

  • SEC - 3
  • B1G - 3
  • ACC - 1
  • B12 - 2
  • PAC - 2
  • AAC - 1

The only realignment shake up was one of those PAC teams was USC.   You can't just assume their record would be the same, as they would have had to play the three big hitters in the B1G above them in the rankings.  Probably more likely the fourth B1G team drops below 10-2 Washington who may have fared better without USC.

Also of note, the entire concept of moving to 12 was to provide more access, not less, as the CFP is the only collegiate sport championship with a tiny representative sample of who gets a chance at the prize.   Basketball has 68 teams, baseball has a large percentage, football has four, from primarily two conferences.

When they moved to four they paid the rest of FBS more money to ward off lawsuits and those at the top don't want to fight lawsuits that will likely shake the foundations of their gravy train.   They need more variety in the championships for optics, even if those teams are seeded 9-12 and always lose in the first round.   Matter a fact, ESPECIALLY if those teams are 9-12 and lose in the first round.

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Hurtlocker

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21 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Serious Question 

I’ve seen someone post non-TX/OU opponent TV ratings. And they look fine. But is it possible that some of those TV ratings are influenced by the Texas/OU fan bases watching those games because of conference standing implications. Is there possibility of a significant drop off? Or are they mainly from their respective TV markets?

 

It shouldn't affect it too much.    The biggest audience builder is casual fans watching marketed "good games", then its kind of fanbase and cross pollination, as you reference.   

Usually what influences audience numbers are (in order):

  • Network, network marketing, and time slot 
  • Ranked match up or something "on the line"
  • Game going down to the last 5 minutes
  • Brand

They all kind of multiply the results and I only put brand last because a non brand team in a close game with something on the line in a great time slot will out draw a brand with nothing on the line in a blow out.   Have all of them though, and its an explosion like the Texas/USC natty coming down to the last play and locking up biggest CFB audience of all time.

Going forward I don't expect much of a drop for the B12, one of the entire reasons they got the contract they did is their audiences outside Texas/OU increased 40% in their games against each other from the last deal.   They don't have brands, so they won't be commanding $60-70m, but they have competitive teams with fervent fan bases who seem focused on developing, so they should be able to continue growing if they don't shoot themselves in the foot.

As for Texas and OU, I'm very confident we'll see a major uptick in Texas' audience numbers in the move to the SEC, by at least 30+%, regardless of record.   I'm not as convinced the Sonners will hold serve.   They easily could be heard in the B12 because they won and outsized all but Texas.   That isn't the case any more.   They need to not only out message Texas, but now they need to do the same with Bama, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida, all of whom have better demographics.   If they can't turn on repetitive 10 win seasons i think they risk becoming an A&M or Arkansas.

 

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CustersDoctor

CustersDoctor 584

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Serious Question 

I’ve seen someone post non-TX/OU opponent TV ratings. And they look fine. But is it possible that some of those TV ratings are influenced by the Texas/OU fan bases watching those games because of conference standing implications. Is there possibility of a significant drop off? Or are they mainly from their respective TV markets?

 

There's certainly some truth to that. What Big12 fan would have watched last years Cincy vs UCF game? NOBODY. But some BIG12 fans will be more likely to watch Cincy vs UCF in the future. OU & UT fanbases NOT watching as much BIG12 football will somewhat hurt the rating starting in 2024. We'll just have to wait and see. In 2024, Will the combined fanbases of BYU, UCF, UH & Cincy, watching Tech vs OkSt game be the same as the fan interest use to be from OU & UT fans? Maybe about the same, but it takes four schools to do it.

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11328

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Posted

I routinely watch MACtion. What else is there to do after baseball and before the NBA on a Tuesday/Wednesday night? I'm a junkie so I might not have the best perspective, but I think the new Big 12 has an opportunities on Thursday and Friday nights. I think US viewers are hungry for decent to to good college football games on those nights. 

When I was in school there were a lot of good Big East games on Thursday. I had some buddies that ran a tailgate sponsored by Shiner/HEB/Tito's. So all the free booze and food you could handle. Keggers and Big East games were good times. 

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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6087

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Posted
6 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

As for Texas and OU, I'm very confident we'll see a major uptick in Texas' audience numbers in the move to the SEC, by at least 30+%, regardless of record.   I'm not as convinced the Sonners will hold serve.   They easily could be heard in the B12 because they won and outsized all but Texas.   That isn't the case any more.   They need to not only out message Texas, but now they need to do the same with Bama, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida, all of whom have better demographics.   If they can't turn on repetitive 10 win seasons i think they risk becoming an A&M or Arkansas.

This reads as, "fuck 0u" to me.

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Gaffords

Gaffords 755

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Posted
Spoiler

 

I do wonder if "Going to market early" would have been a real option if the exit fees hadn't been so costly (especially on OU). How much of the 31 million per school deal based on value  and not ESPN sweeteners. And yes, ESPN giving up the Michigan vs Texas game in 2024 says ESPN was sweetening the pot.

Paul pegged it with we will see just how valuable the Big 12 is the next round when there is nothing to stand on but their own legs...

These numbers paint a bleak picture for viewership value of the new BIG 12.  Sorry BYU, you are not bringing massive numbers to the table... In fact,  your viewership on national TV period is pretty weak....  Sorry Cinci, trusting Paul's numbers once again, your best year in modern times (2021) being your playoff year, you were ranked 66th in viewership that year.  Houston?  Even less value at 77th.  UFC?  If a tree falls...?

I hope us and the dirt burglars both threaten to mudhole every team in front of us that the Big 12 has to rely on their refs to keep it somewhat close and it becomes so blatantly obvious that the national media has a field day with it all season long...  there will be 'a few' more eyes watching this farewell tour year so those OSU type of fuckings will not go unnoticed.  Especially when it becomes the weekly theme.  Piss off the national crowd and watch those national viewership numbers tailspin... not to mention how that will affect the playoff committee's decision making for years to come.

Who knows you might even find yourself invited back to market early...   Don't fuck with the Duck

 

 

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Gaffords

Gaffords 755

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Gaffords said:
  Reveal hidden contents

 

I do wonder if "Going to market early" would have been a real option if the exit fees hadn't been so costly (especially on OU). How much of the 31 million per school deal based on value  and not ESPN sweeteners. And yes, ESPN giving up the Michigan vs Texas game in 2024 says ESPN was sweetening the pot.

Paul pegged it with we will see just how valuable the Big 12 is the next round when there is nothing to stand on but their own legs...

These numbers paint a bleak picture for viewership value of the new BIG 12.  Sorry BYU, you are not bringing massive numbers to the table... In fact,  your viewership on national TV period is pretty weak....  Sorry Cinci, trusting Paul's numbers once again, your best year in modern times (2021) being your playoff year, you were ranked 66th in viewership that year.  Houston?  Even less value at 77th.  UFC?  If a tree falls...?

I hope us and the dirt burglars both threaten to mudhole every team in front of us that the Big 12 has to rely on their refs to keep it somewhat close and it becomes so blatantly obvious that the national media has a field day with it all season long...  there will be 'a few' more eyes watching this farewell tour year so those OSU type of fuckings will not go unnoticed.  Especially when it becomes the weekly theme.  Piss off the national crowd and watch those national viewership numbers tailspin... not to mention how that will affect the playoff committee's decision making for years to come.

Who knows you might even find yourself invited back to market early...   Don't fuck with the Duck

 

Oops, forgot link:

 

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

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Hurtlocker

Hurtlocker 2208

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Gaffords said:
  Hide contents

 

I do wonder if "Going to market early" would have been a real option if the exit fees hadn't been so costly (especially on OU). How much of the 31 million per school deal based on value  and not ESPN sweeteners. And yes, ESPN giving up the Michigan vs Texas game in 2024 says ESPN was sweetening the pot.

Paul pegged it with we will see just how valuable the Big 12 is the next round when there is nothing to stand on but their own legs...

These numbers paint a bleak picture for viewership value of the new BIG 12.  Sorry BYU, you are not bringing massive numbers to the table... In fact,  your viewership on national TV period is pretty weak....  Sorry Cinci, trusting Paul's numbers once again, your best year in modern times (2021) being your playoff year, you were ranked 66th in viewership that year.  Houston?  Even less value at 77th.  UFC?  If a tree falls...?

I hope us and the dirt burglars both threaten to mudhole every team in front of us that the Big 12 has to rely on their refs to keep it somewhat close and it becomes so blatantly obvious that the national media has a field day with it all season long...  there will be 'a few' more eyes watching this farewell tour year so those OSU type of fuckings will not go unnoticed.  Especially when it becomes the weekly theme.  Piss off the national crowd and watch those national viewership numbers tailspin... not to mention how that will affect the playoff committee's decision making for years to come.

Who knows you might even find yourself invited back to market early...   Don't fuck with the Duck

 

 

R.8eff7b4bb98c0028c6b16a6db1f35181?rik=b

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62033

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

This playoff count thing is a bit more difficult to read.   While I agree that there will be a weighting of brands, at some point losses matter.  Generally, there is a big argument over who is the top team, out of two, rarely is it the top team out of four, which is what you'd need to get 3 in the at large, since the CCG champ gets a bye.   I think the B1G/SEC having four in any year is about as rare as the ACC/B12 having 3.   Much more likely the B1G/SEC will always get 3 in and sometimes one of them will creep in a 4th, while one only gets two in a rare year. Along the way, the ACC/B12 manage two a year, in the years their best non-champ has 2 or less losses.

Autos:  SEC, B1G, ACC, B12, PAC, G5

At large/year: B1G/SEC - 2, ACC/B12 - .75, Pac - .5  (mostly due to 9 conf games with 10 teams)

Last year the count would have been:

  • SEC - 3
  • B1G - 3
  • ACC - 1
  • B12 - 2
  • PAC - 2
  • AAC - 1

The only realignment shake up was one of those PAC teams was USC.   You can't just assume their record would be the same, as they would have had to play the three big hitters in the B1G above them in the rankings.  Probably more likely the fourth B1G team drops below 10-2 Washington who may have fared better without USC.

Also of note, the entire concept of moving to 12 was to provide more access, not less, as the CFP is the only collegiate sport championship with a tiny representative sample of who gets a chance at the prize.   Basketball has 68 teams, baseball has a large percentage, football has four, from primarily two conferences.

When they moved to four they paid the rest of FBS more money to ward off lawsuits and those at the top don't want to fight lawsuits that will likely shake the foundations of their gravy train.   They need more variety in the championships for optics, even if those teams are seeded 9-12 and always lose in the first round.   Matter a fact, ESPECIALLY if those teams are 9-12 and lose in the first round.

This presumes a pretense of “fairness” and hits at the rapidly dissolving concept of valuing “amateur competition” when both notions have washed through CFB’s hands like sand by the sea. 

The sport has entered a new phase. It’s done so at breathtaking speed as NIL, the portal and the suddenly expanded CFP indicate. Playoff at large bids will be about money first, merit and other quaint notions second. If an 11-1 UW doesn’t win the Pac 12, they will be told to enjoy the Holiday Bowl and to go shit in a hat otherwise if a 9-3 Alabama, Texas, or Michigan didn’t get blown out in their losses. The hue and cry from the northwest will be so faint that it will be completely ignorable. 

You guys living off of the past performance premise for 3 loss teams in a 12 team expanded playoff are going to have whiplash when this shit unfolds. 

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Evil Bill Obrien

Evil Bill Obrien 3104

Posted
Posted

 

Not sure I'd be bragging too much about only 3 time zones conference when its not even technically true (Mountain West been doing it for years, B1G will be next season, shit think CUSA is/will be 3 time zones too) And especially thinking of future B1G and whatever CUSA will be, 3 time zones not exactly great for conference continuity/unity...

Yormark seems sharp but definitely not infallible as some of my Tech fan friends would make him seem...

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