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2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread


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52 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Yeah but the grid was impacted in the first 5-6 hours of the Feb2021 storm wasn't it? The weather looks fine for a big portion of the state too so I don't expect to be without, but still prepared of course.

Not immediately for most of the state. The first freezes occurred about February 10th, and most of the state had power. I think they initiated rolling blackout something like the 12th or 13th, then the emergency happened on the 14th and power was off for most of the state for another 2 days, as an increasing number of natural gas lines froze and suppliers couldn't get the power to manage for ERCOT. Eventually there just wasn't enough power being produced to withstand the demand no matter what ERCOT did!  Most of the state had power back  by the 16th. I know that my power stayed on 5 1/2 days until it went off early Monday the 15th.

Remember we had three major winter storms within 6 days. Any one of those storms would have been a 10-year event in and of itself.

There was a lot of discussion after the event last year here but people centered a lot on ERCOT and of course they had a lot of the blame, but this was a complete failure of all electrical resources in the state - power companies were just as guilty, as were power brokers and providers, not just the managers like ERCOT. Yeah they deserve blame for not being better prepared, but that blame covers years beforehand and way, Way beyond ERCOT. Frankly they saved the grid and ultimately did their job as, crappy as they set things up. At the time of the event, ERCOT "worked." If it hadn't, power might have been off for much of the state for 6 months at least- my FIL to be it's a major power manager in the state, and listening to the horror stories if it would've burned up make anything happen last winter pale by comparison - thousands of fried transformers, burnout wires, burnt and broken metal, etc; it would have been months if not over a year to fix all that stuff, and far, far more expensive. I'm not defending them per se or their planning policies and the overhaul has been a good first step, but when it came to doing exactly what they're supposed to do, they did save power for Texas. I'll give them that. People can batter around should have and would have but at least they saved the grid. Sure as hell better than the alternative.

The problems with the grid go Way beyond ERCOT, but the solutions are actually not so difficult, and I think the state is on its way to making it a lot better, actually. If people are actually willing to listen on a open-minded basis.

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47 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I live with three women, two of whom are "always freezing."  We keep our heat on at 68 degrees a matter of course in the Winter, even on very cold nights.  Typically when the two little ones are at school and I'm home, I'll keep it on 66.  Put on a long-sleeve shirt and you're fine.  I don't understand how people can keep it on 72 all the time, that air just bothers me after a couple of hours.  And it's wasteful.  My in-laws keep their house at 78.  I do not understand so much of society.  

Of course the tradeoff is, we don't get to keep the house nearly as cool as I'd like in the summers.  So I drink more. 

We kept it on 68 before the kiddos.  But with a 16 mo old who gets croup and what not every 5-7 weeks, and a 3 mo old...that shit is on 71 almost all the time.  Pretty well drives me batty, but I get by.  

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Well yeah, kids that small...you get a pass.  Kids under 2, adults over 82...crank it up, grid and environment be dammed.  To save money and be environmentally conscious, wife keeps upstairs at 66 when kids go to bed.  But I after I read and do good-nights, I'll turn it up to 68 for 'em, and we sleep downstairs at 66. 

I've woken up many times with an extra blanket over me and I realized, it's not my wife's doing since she sleeps like a long-haul trucker crashed back down off an ether binge.  It's just half-asleep muscle memory, I wake up and pull the horizontal blanket at the foot of the bed up over us to keep us cozy at 66 and don't even remember I'm doing it until the next morning's shower.  Little kids, certainly a 16 month old, don't know how to do that yet.  So I'll go up there and they'll have kicked off their blankets and they get chilly.  They either wake up cold and shout for one of us to help them, or they just stay cold and asleep.  So I kick up the heat for them so they'll be okay even after kicking off covers.  Apparently they both got the jimmy-legs.  

But yeah, I don't know how normal adults just blast 72 for 7-8 hours a night.  I couldn't sleep like that.  Thankfully, my body came with an internal heating mechanism and a couple blankets help keep it humming along nicely.  

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4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Well yeah, kids that small...you get a pass.  Kids under 2, adults over 82...crank it up, grid and environment be dammed.  To save money and be environmentally conscious, wife keeps upstairs at 66 when kids go to bed.  But I after I read and do good-nights, I'll turn it up to 68 for 'em, and we sleep downstairs at 66. 

I've woken up many times with an extra blanket over me and I realized, it's not my wife's doing since she sleeps like a long-haul trucker crashed back down off an ether binge.  It's just half-asleep muscle memory, I wake up and pull the horizontal blanket at the foot of the bed up over us to keep us cozy at 66 and don't even remember I'm doing it until the next morning's shower.  Little kids, certainly a 16 month old, don't know how to do that yet.  So I'll go up there and they'll have kicked off their blankets and they get chilly.  They either wake up cold and shout for one of us to help them, or they just stay cold and asleep.  So I kick up the heat for them so they'll be okay even after kicking off covers.  Apparently they both got the jimmy-legs.  

But yeah, I don't know how normal adults just blast 72 for 7-8 hours a night.  I couldn't sleep like that.  Thankfully, my body came with an internal heating mechanism and a couple blankets help keep it humming along nicely.  

We blast ours to 75 at 5AM to pretty much force us to wake up, but keep it at 68 plus a fan to sleep. 

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2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

We blast ours to 75 at 5AM to pretty much force us to wake up, but keep it at 68 plus a fan to sleep. 

If you need something to wake up your wife at 5am with hot, dry air...I'm available to just come over and breathe heavily at the foot of your bed.  

 

And yeah, during the Icepocalypse...we maintained power that Sunday-Wednesday while most of the state went out (long story I've shared on other threads).  To be good fellow citizens, I think we kept heat on at just 60-62 or so.  But after we lost power to a broken limb, we went down into the 50's which was tolerable, but when it sat in the 40's until Sunday...that was a fucking problem.  When you gotta start huddling with your children with no shirts on to keep them from shivering.....  But I'm thankful we didn't lose anybody, we know some folks who lost elderly loved ones...that was something I hadn't thought about ever happening once I left Chicago.  

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64 degrees on the heat from about 10am-5am, raise to 66 at 5am.  Wake up and decide if weather for the day necessitates increasing any from there...usually to max of 68 or 69, though many days if it is sunny and going to be in the 50s/60s (or more) we just leave it at 66 or 67.

Anybody who routinely has a thermostat above 72 for any reason while they are physically in the house is not to be trusted.  That goes for winter and summer.

The 42 degree temperature my house attained in the 36 hours straight of no power last February fucking sucked though.

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

 I don't understand how people can keep it on 72 all the time, that air just bothers me after a couple of hours.  And it's wasteful.  My in-laws keep their house at 78.  I do not understand so much of society.  

Of course the tradeoff is, we don't get to keep the house nearly as cool as I'd like in the summers.  So I drink more. 

1 hour ago, texasdago said:

Oh yeah... when I visit my parents its like someone started bonfires in all the upstairs rooms.  Awful.

Are we related? Because my dad will crank it to the upper 70s in the winter, which dries my sinuses out (because it has to run more as a result, so the air is drier) and is just uncomfortable as fuck - I keep the A/C lower than that in the summer. Going from an inferno of 78 in the house to the 20s or 30s outside is also miserable.

It's like "why the fuck am I wearing jeans and a long-sleeve shirt out and about, when I'm going to have to change into shorts and a t-shirt in their house?"

Our last visit, they compromised and put it at 74, which was still too warm at night.  

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8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are we related? Because my dad will crank it to the upper 70s in the winter, which dries my sinuses out (because it has to run more as a result, so the air is drier) and is just uncomfortable as fuck - I keep the A/C lower than that in the summer. Going from an inferno of 78 in the house to the 20s or 30s outside is also miserable.

It's like "why the fuck am I wearing jeans and a long-sleeve shirt out and about, when I'm going to have to change into shorts and a t-shirt in their house?"

Our last visit, they compromised and put it at 74, which was still too warm at night.  

One recent visit, I had to sleep with the covers off until I finally just opened up the window and let the cold air flow.  

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50 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lot of pussies in this thread. 68 for heat in winter, 78 for AC when it’s hot out. Some summers I’ll turn the AC off entirely and let it get up to 81/82 during the day in the house and be perfectly fine. 

You are totally undead if you actually like that…..  78, That sounds like torte actually. Lol   I absolutely can’t sleep if it’s close to 74 no less 78, that’s miserable   

FE11B5C3-6587-4310-AEC5-E88D0124B30E.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Hook1997 said:

You are totally undead if you actually like that…..  78, That sounds like torte actually. Lol   I absolutely can’t sleep if it’s close to 74 no less 78, that’s miserable   

FE11B5C3-6587-4310-AEC5-E88D0124B30E.jpeg

When I was a kid I took a nap on my grandparent’s porch once in the summertime. Yeah it was in the shade but it was still easily almost 100 outside. I’ve always, always loved the heat. But I’ll admit I turn into a whimpering bitch in anything under 60 degrees. 

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7 hours ago, Helobious said:

Lot of pussies in this thread. 68 for heat in winter, 78 for AC when it’s hot out. Some summers I’ll turn the AC off entirely and let it get up to 81/82 during the day in the house and be perfectly fine. 

Tell us that you like to walk around naked and unashamed in the summer without telling us that you like to walk and naked and unashamed in the summer.

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11 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Update: Uggh!
A little long (per usual) but the situation calls for it.

Basically, as I said above, it's Tuesday morning, within about 48 hrs. of the event, which is when models get better (er, more accurate).

And they've gotten "better", but worse, in two ways:  1) colder temps, and... wait for it... 2) more precip.

Not a good recipe.  Usually storms that bring in fronts do their precip thing, the front swings by, and pushes the rain out, then cold but dry hits.

Not this time.

A low sitting NW of us will come in starting the rain event, and the front will push the precip over the low, underrunning it.  The storm will have enough punch to keep "precip"ing after temps start going down.  Now it looks like Thursday will be a widespread frozen precip event.  And, ATX is right smack dab on the border between significant icing and not so bad.

This is actually almost the exact same scenario that started the Big Freeze last year.  However, the difference is that this will move out within 36 hours, not 119, and even with this blast, it won't be quite as cold in toto.  But overnights through Sunday morning will be way below freezing.  And... here we go... 85% of Texas will be under hard freezes/frozen precip - are you listening, grid and power producers???? If you're not out there today prepping your sites, eat a bag. (BTW, peak power usage for this one is predicted early Friday a.m., something like 77K MW (the peak last year was like 72KMW before the shut it down).  But the people say they're ready, have at least 20K MW in reserve... okay, let's see how it goes).  I think it'll last for this relatively brief event... if it were 4 days or more, I doubt it.

But again, things will absolutely dry out and get better starting Friday.  This is a 2-day nut squeeze, not an 8 or 9.  That's 100% certain (no "sneaky storms" lining up behind this next one).

This will be a short but serious event.  Pipes will burst if not covered, plants, etc.  Sporadic power outages due to ice causing branches or lines themselves to pop but not grid-related.  Definitely have 2 day's worth of "stuff" you need.  However, this is a good test for statewide power... only 2 days around us but NW Texas could be under freezing24/7 for 4 or even 5 days in the most northern and western parts.  I think for Austin if we can get thru Thursday, roads will clear up Friday as it'll be dry and sunny (but cold!).  Enough to get back to normal.

Again, nothing like 2021, but a brief taste.
Winter Storm Watch issued for ATX region this morning.  The last one issued last week was downgraded to advisory.  This one I think will be upgraded to Winter Storm Warning (mostly due to icing conditions).

tl;dr:   Today (Tues.) - clouds/fog giving way to sun and 70°.  Soak it up, you're gonna need it.  This is main prep day.  Why?
Wed. - Because rain will start early afternoon in warm temps.  Gets to the mid-60's before the front hits around dinnertime.  But just rain thru midnight.
Thurs. - Temps fall thru night below freezing.  Any precip turns frozen by 3-4 a.m.  Light precip lingers on until dinner, likely freezing rain or sleet (probably not snow, which would be oodles better, for our area).  How bad it gets depends on how much precip is still around when front overtakes precip.  Anything over .20" ice is the borderline for damaging ice.  Temps struggle to get to 30°.  Drier overnight but temps still fall, falling into the 20's - and lower.
Fri. - coldest morning since last year, temps will be widespread teens most ATX region, maybe a few 20's S and E.  Dry, clears, temps high 30's- hopefully.  Still, should be enough pause to get the roads back.
Sat.  - Cold morning again, about 25°-30° around region.  Hard freeze.  Temps climb back to mid-40's.  "Almost" back to normal.  Last sub-freezing night overnight.
Sun. - Temps get to 50's, Sunday overnight into Monday around but in many places above freezing.  It's over.

Back as this obviously touchy weather situation changes.  Prep stuff today, you can't do it if it starts raining Wed. morning, anything wet will freeze, period.

Good luck, we're not counting on you.

Great info as always. 

I'd love to make it to your summer camp one year but since you limit it to 12 to 13-year old boys I'm probably shit out of luck. 

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5 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Great info as always. 

I'd love to make it to your summer camp one year but since you limit it to 12 to 13-year old boys I'm probably shit out of luck. 

That's okay, I've heard you act like one, so you're welcome.  BTW, it's true but I have a special cabin for their moms and that's where I stay.

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One last thing, on travel Thursday/Friday:

North or West (towards Waco/DFW/West Texas, Panhandle)  - forget it.  Ice/snow.  Driving will be next to impossible.  Maybe some main roads on Friday.
CenTex Thursday - probably difficult, esp. more N and W counties, Hill Country.  Snow/Ice line probably running through Belton or S. of Waco SW past I dunno, Brady. S and E region might hold up better.  Probably frozen/wet line somewhere near Columbus/U.S. 77 area. But most of ATX Thus. is looking bad, Fri. better.
South/East Tex  This event differs from last year in that it won't freeze the Valley or S. Texas, including Houston and south (N of Houston into East Texas not included, probably a no-go).  I'd say from maybe Conroeish S and E the whole thing will be just rain, and the daytimes > freezing (one huge boost for the state power is that Houston consumption shouldn't be too bad).  The south coast escapes the brunt of this one, Gulf breezes push back and keep the coast warmer. 

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55 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

North or West (towards Waco/DFW/West Texas, Panhandle)  - forget it.  Ice/snow.  Driving will be next to impossible.  Maybe some main roads on Friday.

And I will "be expected" to drive 15 miles to work Thursday morning. Does anyone want my Blackhawks jacket? Also everyone feel free to call Susan Davis.

Edited by SimonBolivar
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What really sucks about this is trying to figure out when to cover plants since the rain is going to screw things up... feel like they're going to have to be covered for a while but I hate doing it when things are wet so I wonder if they survive the freeze, if they will survive being nice and moist for extended periods.  Good times.  

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As I mentioned in the non-Texas weather thread - watch the ice line with this one. Ice is the worst. Be careful out there. Salt, sand and/or kitty litter is your friend in ice.
 

And - a reminder - 4wd means zero in ice. Conquering ice in a vehicle requires studded snow tires or chains. 
 

Tldr - keep an eye  ice line as the storm moves in. Good luck and Godspeed. 

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What the hell does that mean, you rabid anti-dentite? 

My buddy Kramer was right.  It always starts off with little slight comments here and there, "Hey Denty!  Snow Day today?"

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7 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

As I mentioned in the non-Texas weather thread - watch the ice line with this one. Ice is the worst. Be careful out there. Salt, sand and/or kitty litter is your friend in ice.
 

And - a reminder - 4wd means zero in ice. Conquering ice in a vehicle requires studded snow tires or chains. 
 

Tldr - keep an eye  ice line as the storm moves in. Good luck and Godspeed. 

I've got these for my shoes -- 421ccace-4458-4a0f-8179-e693f0706d82?siz

Actually came in super-handy during the storm last year.  Before the worst of it, we went down in the greenbelt to harvest some extra firewood, and had to walk on a lot of icy stones -- they did the trick.  But I don't have 'em for my truck, so I know we can get stuck at the bottom of our hill and have to stay there.

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21 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

We kept it on 68 before the kiddos.  But with a 16 mo old who gets croup and what not every 5-7 weeks, and a 3 mo old...that shit is on 71 almost all the time.  Pretty well drives me batty, but I get by.  

Lots of healthy Scandinavian babies.  Crank that shit down

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During the big ice storm last year a lady across the street slipped and suffered a compound fracture of her leg. I was outside turning my water off at the street because a pipe had burst when I heard her screaming for help. Her family couldn’t hear her so I don’t know how long she had been there before I found her. I damn near busted my ass several times just trying to cross the street to get to her. In short, fuck ice.

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During the big ice storm last year a lady across the street slipped and suffered a compound fracture of her leg. I was outside turning my water off at the street because a pipe had burst when I heard her screaming for help. Her family couldn’t hear her so I don’t know how long she had been there before I found her. I damn near busted my ass several times just trying to cross the street to get to her. In short, fuck ice.

Our neighbor last year slipped and hit her head. She was already in rough shape with dementia, and she never recovered from that blow. She died three months later. Don’t mess around on the ice.
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Our house is at 71. But that’s 71 in the warmest room in the house, the kitchen.  It’s nice and chilly on the bedrooms if it’s actually reading 71 on the thermostat. Most times unless it’s very cold outside it reads up to 78 during the day with radiant energy coming in.  Never have bothered to measure different room temps, just dialed it in based on feel and how often I noticed the furnace running. 

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12 hours ago, Helobious said:

Lot of pussies in this thread. 68 for heat in winter, 78 for AC when it’s hot out. Some summers I’ll turn the AC off entirely and let it get up to 81/82 during the day in the house and be perfectly fine. 

I grew up in a house where 85 during the summer was normal, if I turned it down to 82 my folks would get pissed off at me. Then in the winter we would basically wear ski clothes inside because we evidently didn't have heat. I was always so confused why we lived in a large house but evidently couldn't afford to heat and cool it. Turns out my parents were just crazy.

These days I am right there with you. I kick it down to 76 at night to sleep but the rest of the time 78/68 is fine.

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4 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

My grandparents' next door neighbors were like this, but instead of it being set to 85 they refused to turn on the AC until June and turned it off in mid-October no matter what the temperature was outside/inside. 

My grandparents lived in the hilly areas Southeast of Pittsburgh, PA.  They didn't have air conditioning.  Some of them July nights were an absolute beating with high humidity and very little air movement.  

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