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2022-2023 Winter Weather Thread


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6 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Is a Stage 1 Tornado Warning when you can go outside and record the thing when it's 100 yards from you?

I thought you take shelter under any Tornado Warning. Never heard of the stage thing. 

It's a work safety protocol. We have stage 1, 2 & 3. Basically telling you where to go. Stage 3 is everyone head to the basement and pray.

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FWIW---for us in Central Texas, weather.com and some other models backing off the hard freezes for next week/holiday weekend.  Highs near 50 and soft freezes in hill country type of stuff.  Today and tomorrow still reaching 70 so gonna try and warm up the house before temps drop off the cliff on Friday and let the furnace rest.  Monday rain still holding steady across all websites which is good, we could still use it and nobody does anything fun first Monday of Holiday Break anyway.  Typical seasonal weather most of next week leading up to Christmas with very little precip so we can all have our kiddo activities outside.  

some bad news though for our football team, looks like precip chances high in San Antonio for the AlamoBowl.  Seattle-based Huskies are used to that, we aren't.  /scaresyoutodeathMB

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40 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

FWIW---for us in Central Texas, weather.com and some other models backing off the hard freezes for next week/holiday weekend.  Highs near 50 and soft freezes in hill country type of stuff.  Today and tomorrow still reaching 70 so gonna try and warm up the house before temps drop off the cliff on Friday and let the furnace rest.  Monday rain still holding steady across all websites which is good, we could still use it and nobody does anything fun first Monday of Holiday Break anyway.  Typical seasonal weather most of next week leading up to Christmas with very little precip so we can all have our kiddo activities outside.  

some bad news though for our football team, looks like precip chances high in San Antonio for the AlamoBowl.  Seattle-based Huskies are used to that, we aren't.  /scaresyoutodeathMB

Uh what ?

It is going to rain inside the Alamodome ?

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4 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Weather.com and big national weather sites are largely hot garbage for local coverage.  Find a local news guy you can trust.  I like the CBS Austin team as they are decidedly non-hype.

Yeomans on KXAN is pretty damn solid as well.  When he and Jim Spencer were providing round-the-clock coverage of the February 2021 event (lead-up and once it was happening), it was as good as it gets.

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32 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Weather.com and big national weather sites are largely hot garbage for local coverage.  Find a local news guy you can trust.  I like the CBS Austin team as they are decidedly non-hype.

Yeah, I mainly look to KXAN/Yeoman.  Hate does some good stuff on here but he's near Houston and whenever I ask him about Austin weather, he just screams at me, "They shut down all the good restaurants after we moved, Austin sucks...get out before the.....!"  And then he cuts out.  

PhDHorn was obviously my favorite.  We lived on opposite ends of 2244, but for a couple years there, his exact rainfall amounts matched mine (though I'm several inches longer).  So whatever he says about Austin-area weather is still gospel to me.  But I dunno where the hell he went.  This time of year...ya' miss him...

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1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

 

some bad news though for our football team, looks like precip chances high in San Antonio for the AlamoBowl.  Seattle-based Huskies are used to that, we aren't.  /scaresyoutodeathMB

I mean not only is it in a dome, from what I understand, precipitation is most difficult thing to predict far in advance.  Trying to predict the chance of rain 15 days out seems worthless.

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2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I mean not only is it in a dome, from what I understand, precipitation is most difficult thing to predict far in advance.  Trying to predict the change of rain 15 days out seems worthless.

Yeah see, but thats what makes the Dome prediction more reliable.  Because it's played in the Alamodome...the precip levels are much easier to predict this far out.  And so far, the high chances of rain, perhaps even wintry mix, will favor the Seattle-based Huskies...not us.  Especially with us missing our two best ground attack guys 

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2 hours ago, texasdago said:

Weather.com and big national weather sites are largely hot garbage for local coverage.  Find a local news guy you can trust.  I like the CBS Austin team as they are decidedly non-hype.

Anytime someone quotes weather.com or whatever their phone says for the weather, I get all judgey. Ain’t nobody got time for that stupidity!

Edited by Vanderpool
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From a poster on one of the forums I follow, this is in regards to all of the factors that need to come into play for us to get a really cold event here in Texas:

Quote

Arctic Air next week - it's likely happening.

So, in my mind the questions left are down to the following:

- Just how cold is the arctic airmass?
- What is the magnitude of high pressure - the higher it is, the more likely it heads this way
- Will the be any blocking N of Texas? (Probably NO)
- What is the Eastward bias of the airmass?
- How much snowpack will there be north of Texas?
- Other moderating factors?

All of these factors will determine just how cold it gets and every scenario is on the table at this point.  It could be seasonal cold, it could be a little colder and have precipitation, or it could be really fucking cold and dry.  We'll know more by Saturday and Sunday. 

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10 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeomans on KXAN is pretty damn solid as well.  When he and Jim Spencer were providing round-the-clock coverage of the February 2021 event (lead-up and once it was happening), it was as good as it gets.

Yeomans is really good. Guessing with his depth of knowledge, personality and looks he'll be getting offers from major markets soon, if not already.

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Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner. He is the lead meteorologist for Harris County and someone that I really respect and listen to.  Keep in m ind, this is for SE Texas, but it applies to Central Texas as well.  The temps of course may be a few degrees colder for CenTex.

Quote

Late Next Week:
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to support the unleashing of an arctic air mass into the US around the middle of next week with an arrival into TX around the 22nd. This cold air mass is driven by a significant 1050-1065mb arctic high pressure dome that develops over NW Canada later this weekend and sinks southward toward the US/Montana border early next week. Some of the deterministic model runs want to push the arctic air more east with a glancing (still cold) blow across TX. Historical analogs suggest that once this air mass begins to move southward it is coming south fast and cold as global models tend to struggle with the extreme density of such air masses and are historically too warm and slow with the arrival of such air masses into the southern plains. Still need to see how cold the air mass becomes this weekend in NW Canada before having a decent idea of how cold temperatures will be in the southern plains and TX late next week.

For now will go with an arrival of the arctic front across SE TX on the 22nd/23rd with significantly colder temperatures. Averaging out the various longer range guidance outputs suggests at least 2-3 nights below freezing over the entire area with highs in the 30’s around Christmas Eve/Day. This may need to be trended colder as the intensity of this air mass comes into better focus early next week. The NAM usually does a good job with these sorts of air masses and we are still 3-4 days before coming into the view of that guidance. For now much of the global guidance is fairly dry behind the arctic front, so at the moment no entertainment of freezing or frozen precipitation.

 

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Absolutely perfect today. 51 and 30% humidity right now. Not a cloud in the sky and hardly any wind. Going be in the low 60's this afternoon. Definitely outdoor happy hour weather.

Pretty solid weekend on tap, though not quite as idyllic as today. Looks to be quite chilly Saturday night.

Coldest weather seems set to arrive overnight on 12/22 into the morning of 12/23. Gonna be visiting in-laws in Baton Rouge that day. Current forecast showing a low of 22. Don't know if it will get THAT cold, but I don't think anyone needs to worry about an unseasonably warm Xmas weekend. 

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5 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I’ll tell you at Waffle House.  Tomorrow morning?  I didn’t even tell you about our mutual friend and fitlump at DQ holiday party last weekend.  I am forgetful in my old age 

I'd KILL for a Waffle House visit.  Have a morning meeting.  But I might could do lunch?  You know, they'll serve the full menu all day long.

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43 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I’ll tell you at Waffle House.  Tomorrow morning?  I didn’t even tell you about our mutual friend and fitlump at DQ holiday party last weekend.  I am forgetful in my old age 

I'm sorry, but you're not allowed to just drop this nugget and not follow through. I will be watching the other thread for a detailed report.

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15 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Absolutely perfect today. 51 and 30% humidity right now. Not a cloud in the sky and hardly any wind. Going be in the low 60's this afternoon. Definitely outdoor happy hour weather.

Pretty solid weekend on tap, though not quite as idyllic as today. Looks to be quite chilly Saturday night.

Coldest weather seems set to arrive overnight on 12/22 into the morning of 12/23. Gonna be visiting in-laws in Baton Rouge that day. Current forecast showing a low of 22. Don't know if it will get THAT cold, but I don't think anyone needs to worry about an unseasonably warm Xmas weekend. 

70-80 degree Christmas’s suck balls unless you’re in Arizona or Hawaii I guess.

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