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Cairn Horn88

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25 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Because Trump doesn't do his own fundraising.  Someone else decides what's going to be in the ad and how much they're going to ask for.   

Trump has been so endlessly bleating about stolen and rigged elections, with no supporting evidence, that it will probably be hard to differentiate any one particular bleat from any other bleat, prove that bleat's knowing falsity, and prove that it was intended to induce a specific person to donate money.

Contrast that with sales agent, who specifically and with Big Boss' knowledge, told you certain art they knew was fake was real, priced it accordingly, and took your money.  If you could tie Trump to even one specific transaction, you'd have him, but I rather doubt you can.  I'd be happy to be wrong.

Those people aren't doing it for their own gain. They're doing it for trump. As such should be sufficient to access the financial records through subpoena to see where the money went. If it went predominantly to Trump then it's beyond a reasonable doubt he directed the activity. No one is going to commit crimes so someone else can get rich with zero connection to the person(s) getting rich. 

That has been used to convict people of conspiracy to commit murder for paying someone else to do the murder, even if there isn't a text or phone call or video showing the explicit request to commit murder. The paper trail showing payment and phone records showing contact has been enough to convict many times. 

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Might wanna hang on to it. His paintings are still going for a lot. Dunno about the prints, and that doesn't look like a limited series. But some Zoomer might pay for it.
I donated it to my alma mater (I attributed the purchase to Florida after all), who graciously vastly overestimated the value for my subsequent questionable tax  deduction.  IRS Statute of limitations has passed. 
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22 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The campaign supposedly hired two firms to find election fraud and came up empty both times.  Election fraud has not been proven by anyone at anytime.  Last I checked it wasn't the other side's responsibility to prove the election was fair but rather dotard's responsibility to show it was fraudulent.  So the first two points are overcome. 

As for the last, the donation requests were sent to specific email addresses.  Are you suggesting the defense will be "Well we just made up a bunch of email addresses and sent out these false claims of election fraud to them for shits and giggles."? 

I'm suggesting that they can nail people in the campaign to the wall.

I'm suggesting they may not be able to nail Trump to the wall on similar facts.

 

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6 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

If it went predominantly to Trump then it's beyond a reasonable doubt he directed the activity.

Yeah, no.  And no it hasn't.

First off, if it went predominantly to Trump, and they could prove it, that would be a whole other crime.

Wire fraud requires the intent to defraud.  Trump's general desire that all the people give him all the money all the time does not equate to an intent to defraud on a specific matter.

If it could be shown somehow that he approached a specific donor or set of them and said he was going to wind them up with rigged election bullshit so they'd give him money, that might be something else entirely.

But what actually most likely happened is some someones said "hey, we can parlay all this election grievance bullshit into a lot of donations," let's gin up the ads right now. They may have a problem.  It would take some probably pretty unusual evidence to tie Trump to that specifically enough to convict him of wire fraud.

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I said that under the assumption Smith's case shows strong enough evidence of attempt to defraud based on provable lies about the election to eventually issue charges. We don't know what he has so I'm having to assume if he files charges here he's got something.

Given every angle he has to charge Trump i can't imagine he'd be pursuing this to the point of filing charges if he didn't have that evidence. Whether it's to go directly after trump or to go after trump's inner circle to get them to sell out trump on other things I have to think spending time on this isn't done on a longshot. 

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Many bleats:  send me money, for my pursuit of the stolen election.  Then comes the many emails endorsed by tfg saying same.  Ditto.  Money comes.  Everyone, tfg included, knew it was a lie.  I, for one, don’t accept for a nano second that he did not falsely ask for that money, by mail.  10 years.

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Trump does have an ability to not put things in writing and to convey what he wants done to his minions in a way that gives him plausible deniability. Even Cohen says Trump is really good at conveying what he wanted without ever telling you exactly what he wanted.   Like a mafia Don, his skill set in that area is very good.

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Here's Appendix 33 to the January 6 Committee Report, detailing what they learned about campaign efforts.

You can find a lot of names and a lot of actions and inactions, but pretty conspicuously missing from the discussion is one Donald J. Trump.  https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-J6-REPORT/html-submitted/index.html#app3_

Stranger things have happened, maybe they'll come across something that explicitly ties Trump to specific false advertisments and he can be convicted or stand a reasonable chance of it.  But I think there are too many layers insulating him from liability here.

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7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Here's Appendix 33 to the January 6 Committee Report, detailing what they learned about campaign efforts.

You can find a lot of names and a lot of actions and inactions, but pretty conspicuously missing from the discussion is one Donald J. Trump.  https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-J6-REPORT/html-submitted/index.html#app3_

Stranger things have happened, maybe they'll come across something that explicitly ties Trump to specific false advertisments and he can be convicted or stand a reasonable chance of it.  But I think there are too many layers insulating him from liability here.

twice catches a lot of heat for giving his opinion on the challenges of convicting Trump on various things.

I will say that New Orleans former Mayor Marc Morial comes to mind.  His closest advisers were convicted. Several family members of his were convicted.  They all were convicted of criminal offenses having to do with hanging around the orbit of the mayor of New Orleans. And yet the feds, who wanted his ass in the most desperate way, we’re unable to penetrate his inner circle and get anyone to flip. He finally left office and literally did not come back to the state until the statute of limitation had run on any possible conviction. 

Which is all to say that, even though it defies logic to think that his inner advisers and closest family members were guilty while Marc was not, he was able to avoid any criminal responsibility for his eight year tenure as mayor.   However, the mayor was smart as hell. Trump is a moron. And Trump is a moron, who likes to shit on people who work for him.  I think the one aspect of this that I am most hopeful for is that Trump’s one-way loyalty Street will ultimately lead to people willing to exchange a lighter sentence for proof of Trump’s involvement.  

I honestly think that Trump does not realize that most of the stuff he does is actually criminal.  As a supreme narcissist, Trump just wants what Trump wants and does not understand why that is a problem.

We will see I guess.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


Man, I thought Nagel was some high-art sophisticated shit back in the 80s.

In my defense, it was the 80s.
And I was a dipshit.
And I thought chicks might think it was sophisticated.
Did I mention the dipshit part? I may also have been a dumbass of little style or taste.

It may not be high art but that slick, stylized was look was so very 80’s. That takes me back. I’ve got no problem with Patrick Nagel.

F35656B4-644E-483B-8DE7-05CE63E9621E.png.c358207558d7192e35076a210f08cd93.png


Of course, he was no Alberto Vargas.

7CDBB101-CA89-4378-BF45-A470274008B6.png.2cf3b88da4492ca8fa576a9dd2e837e2.png

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Color me naive:  how much incentive is there for local/state/federal prosecutors to pursue white collar crimes?  Outside of the (alleged, cough) rape, most of what Trump has done has been the definition of "white collar" -- real estate, financial, tax and insurance fraud, etc.  I honestly doubt he's the most egregious white collar criminal in south Florida, much less the 5 boroughs or the state of New York.

The Feds nailed Al Capone on tax evasion.  They wanted him for being a mob boss and the head of a vicious, murdering conglomerate.

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Well, JJ, the US Attorney that worked with me left me no doubt as to the energies he dedicated to white collar crime.  In the case I referenced, it took essentially just one person to testify that the perps had said what they said.  It was verbal, but then translated into receipts.   But the essence of the direct and cross were all about what was said.   
In the tfg case, 100 million persons heard what he said, over and over and over.  A dead person could make the connection.

This is no tirade against more informed legal views.  Just a nattering  against injustice.   

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Here's Appendix 33 to the January 6 Committee Report, detailing what they learned about campaign efforts.

You can find a lot of names and a lot of actions and inactions, but pretty conspicuously missing from the discussion is one Donald J. Trump.  https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-J6-REPORT/html-submitted/index.html#app3_

???

Quote

B. POST-ELECTION FUNDRAISING OFF THE BIG LIE
Both the Trump Campaign and the RNC directed TMAGAC to continue fundraising after the election.84 Justin Clark, the deputy campaign manager, explained that the decision to continue fundraising after the election would have come from President Trump himself.85

  The TMAGAC fundraisers used inflammatory language and false election fraud claims after the election because it was both effective at fundraising and accurately captured President Trump’s ongoing tone and messaging.89 When the digital fundraising team drafted emails claiming, for example, that “Democrats are trying to steal the election,” they did not bother to confirm whether or not those inflammatory statements were true, and instead they merely took President Trump’s words and made an effective fundraising email.90 As Zambrano stated, “the President issuing statements or tweets would be the genesis of the copy that would then go into the approval process for edits, for checks. That is why the approval process worked.” 91 President Trump was the source of the lies. Not only was President Trump’s fundraising driven by his daily deluge of lies about the election, but these lies were also able to go unchallenged before being spread because TMAGAC had an ineffective process when it came to scrutinizing and correcting those lies.

 

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3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:
3 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:
Might wanna hang on to it. His paintings are still going for a lot. Dunno about the prints, and that doesn't look like a limited series. But some Zoomer might pay for it.

I donated it to my alma mater (I attributed the purchase to Florida after all), who graciously vastly overestimated the value for my subsequent questionable tax  deduction.  IRS Statute of limitations has passed. 

CSB: in the early 90s a gym owner wanted an artist to paint Beautiful People on the walls of his property, and, to match the narcissism of the place, I sketched him up some Nagel-esque work and a decent total price where I could work like a coke head, finish fast, and make a great hourly wage.

He was down for the art, but he wanted to pay me hourly instead of by-the-job, at a not-great hourly wage.

Well, I could work in a cafeteria for a not-great hourly wage, so I went and did that instead, never had to climb a ladder, and got free food. /CSB

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3 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Here's Appendix 33 to the January 6 Committee Report, detailing what they learned about campaign efforts.

You can find a lot of names and a lot of actions and inactions, but pretty conspicuously missing from the discussion is one Donald J. Trump.  https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-J6-REPORT/html-submitted/index.html#app3_

Stranger things have happened, maybe they'll come across something that explicitly ties Trump to specific false advertisments and he can be convicted or stand a reasonable chance of it.  But I think there are too many layers insulating him from liability here.

I can’t find the post where you mention Cohen but wanted to say while I agree with you in general I think Trump has gotten sloppy and has fucked up.

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4 hours ago, nbmishoid said:

Gator - that’s pretty close, how could we know?   
NAIU - just a bit less than 2 years, kids were pre school,  not so bad for that short time.  Learned to like Lubbock.

The lack of trees or the variety of STDs?

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5 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Color me naive:  how much incentive is there for local/state/federal prosecutors to pursue white collar crimes?  Outside of the (alleged, cough) rape, most of what Trump has done has been the definition of "white collar" -- real estate, financial, tax and insurance fraud, etc.  I honestly doubt he's the most egregious white collar criminal in south Florida, much less the 5 boroughs or the state of New York.

The Feds nailed Al Capone on tax evasion.  They wanted him for being a mob boss and the head of a vicious, murdering conglomerate.

Actually a good question.

First things first.  It's difficult to secure a lot of white collar convictions.  The crimes are subtle and/or complex, the defendants and their lawyers have lots of resources, so the likelihood of convictions substantially lower than most of the low-hanging-fruit they go after.

When I did the Criminal Defense Clinic at UT 30 years ago, all misdemeanor stuff, the lawyers mentoring us said the common denominators among our clients were guilt and stupidity.  White-collar defendants have engaged in stupidity, or at least hubris, but it's not the general-purpose kind that leaves evidence and witnesses lying around for the cops to pick up.

So, it takes a lot of time, and money, to investigate and indict these crimes, and if for no other reason than W/L, they don't bring the cases if they don't feel pretty confident of a conviction.

Counterbalancing that is the "glory" of convicting them, which really I think drives a whole lot of prosecutions.  It's either a kind of self-righteous "I'm making the streets safer," or "look, we don't just go after poors and browns."  I'm sure white-collar prosecutors generate their own self-motivations about "preserving honest capital markets" or some such, but let's face it, it's probably not as easy to get riled up about as violent criminals, or even those that spread around the devastation of drugs.

Then you add in political pressures, and there's quite a bit of headwind against white-collar prosecutions.

It's kind of interesting, the SEC brings civil and administrative actions against stock crooks all the time, often getting them barred from the industry and money disgorged for return to investors, but US Attorneys only pick up prosecutions off of those, most of which are at least technically a crime, a relatively small percentage of the time.

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7 hours ago, Gatorubet said:
7 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:
Might wanna hang on to it. His paintings are still going for a lot. Dunno about the prints, and that doesn't look like a limited series. But some Zoomer might pay for it.

I donated it to my alma mater (I attributed the purchase to Florida after all), who graciously vastly overestimated the value for my subsequent questionable tax  deduction.  IRS Statute of limitations has passed. 

A poster from from Playboy's staff artist while drunk in a strange town?  Easily worth $500.  

 

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A poster from from Playboy's staff artist while drunk in a strange town?  Easily worth $500.  
 
My drunk self hit on Gloria Steinem in an elevator at the Century City hotel I was staying at.  She somehow resisted my slurred charms.  I may or may not have told her about the Nagel.
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5 hours ago, The Dog said:

I can’t find the post where you mention Cohen but wanted to say while I agree with you in general I think Trump has gotten sloppy and has fucked up.

That was me, not Twice.

I don’t think he got sloppy so much as  for the first time in his life he had a lot more people who paid greater attention to all the shady stuff he was doing.   He’d been doing it his whole life and getting away with it because there weren’t that many people who cared.

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5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

That was me, not Twice.

I don’t think he got sloppy so much as  for the first time in his life he had a lot more people who paid greater attention to all the shady stuff he was doing.   He’d been doing it his whole life and getting away with it because there weren’t that many people who cared.

Agreed.  He escaped prosecution before the presidency like a whole lot of other lower Manhattan grifters.  Then he reached a whole new audience.  

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9 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

but let's face it, it's probably not as easy to get riled up about as violent criminals, or even those that spread around the devastation of drugs.

I disagree strongly here. I find white collar crime to be just as bad, and in many ways, worse than blue collar crime. A crime of passion (Uncle Leo), is understandable in many instances and is often a spur of the moment thing. White collar crime is pre-meditated and purposeful and can hurt way more people over the long run than blue collar crime. It’s pure fucking evil. 

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27 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I disagree strongly here. I find white collar crime to be just as bad, and in many ways, worse than blue collar crime. A crime of passion (Uncle Leo), is understandable in many instances and is often a spur of the moment thing. White collar crime is pre-meditated and purposeful and can hurt way more people over the long run than blue collar crime. It’s pure fucking evil. 

I very much agree in the sense of "to whom much is given, much is expected," especially when it comes to sentencing.

But in the day-in, day-out world of prosecuting white-collar crime, I imagine that it's harder for prosecutors to generate the self-righteous fury that seems to be a necessary component of doing their jobs.

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16 hours ago, Macanudo said:

The lack of trees or the variety of STDs?

Why not both?

At the time my Mom was still in Austin and I came to know that drive well.  Trees slowly appear out of the ground headed east, and slowly sink back into the ground headed west.

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15 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I will say that if Trump does NOT get convicted of something, then we need to completely ban forever the use of the phrase “follow the money!”


i don’t see trunp himself leaning a digital trail. So everything turns into he said / she said 

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21 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

twice catches a lot of heat for giving his opinion on the challenges of convicting Trump on various things.

I will say that New Orleans former Mayor Marc Morial comes to mind.  His closest advisers were convicted. Several family members of his were convicted.  They all were convicted of criminal offenses having to do with hanging around the orbit of the mayor of New Orleans. And yet the feds, who wanted his ass in the most desperate way, we’re unable to penetrate his inner circle and get anyone to flip. He finally left office and literally did not come back to the state until the statute of limitation had run on any possible conviction. 

Which is all to say that, even though it defies logic to think that his inner advisers and closest family members were guilty while Marc was not, he was able to avoid any criminal responsibility for his eight year tenure as mayor.   However, the mayor was smart as hell. Trump is a moron. And Trump is a moron, who likes to shit on people who work for him.  I think the one aspect of this that I am most hopeful for is that Trump’s one-way loyalty Street will ultimately lead to people willing to exchange a lighter sentence for proof of Trump’s involvement.  

I honestly think that Trump does not realize that most of the stuff he does is actually criminal.  As a supreme narcissist, Trump just wants what Trump wants and does not understand why that is a problem.

We will see I guess.

An old strong arm tactic used by cops and in prisons was when someone was acting up, everyone around him had their meals withheld while they got to eat.  After a few days of this, once the lights went out, they others beat the ever living shit out of the person acting up.  My brother was in lockup when they did this to someone.  He said you could hear the guy screaming when the lights went out.  This was general lockup and not cell driven, but you get the point.  I would fantasize about such an event on the streets when enough of the people around Trump got prosecuted while he remained free.  He'd have to flee the country to get away from them, and not just the authorities.  Also, he's probably made enough international enemies that he very well could accidentally fall out a window.  However, what complicates things is his security dispatch, that we all pay for.  Do the recordings of him trying to fix the election in Pennsylvania and Georgia not mean anything?  

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1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:


i don’t see trunp himself leaning a digital trail. So everything turns into he said / she said 

But calls he made surely not just imply--why else even call a polling place, much less get recorded asking for them to leave the room and they'd take care of everything or finding him the extra votes.  That has to have some kind of traction.  

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2 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

But calls he made surely not just imply--why else even call a polling place, much less get recorded asking for them to leave the room and they'd take care of everything or finding him the extra votes.  That has to have some kind of traction.  

He will be indicted. Whether or not you consider that ‘traction’ is an individual decision.  And we all want the fucker convicted.  But if indictments are enough to change the results of the 2024 elections because the GQP has to constantly defend him, I will mollify myself with that result.

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1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:


i don’t see trunp himself leaning a digital trail. So everything turns into he said / she said 

Just for the sake of argument, it is clear that he surrounds himself with morons, or at least semi morons whose only goal is getting ahead, getting rich, or getting power.   

I simply refuse to believe that some of those morons were not texting or emailing each other with details of the elections fraud and the run up to January 6.   The penumbra of idiocy surrounding his administration has to result in evidence of culpability at some level.  I agree with twice that it may come to largely circumstantial evidence. And as we all know that is enough to convict you for a capital punishment crime, so it should be good enough to convict that corrupt treasonous motherfucker.

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6 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Just for the sake of argument, it is clear that he surrounds himself with morons, or at least semi morons whose only goal is getting ahead, getting rich, or getting power.   

I simply refuse to believe that some of those morons were not texting or emailing each other with details of the elections fraud and the run up to January 6.   The penumbra of idiocy surrounding his administration has to result in evidence of culpability at some level.  I agree with twice that it may come to largely circumstantial evidence. And as we all know that is enough to convict you for a capital punishment crime, so it should be good enough to convict that corrupt treasonous motherfucker.

My thoughts are that if you can't get him on circumstantial evidence, then there are quite a few mob bosses/felons that can be freed or are exhaling.  

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32 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

My thoughts are that if you can't get him on circumstantial evidence, then there are quite a few mob bosses/felons that can be freed or are exhaling.  

It's going to be mostly circumstantial most likely, yes.  The question is how much circumstantial evidence can they compile and how convincing is it?

One of the problems with discussing it here is everyone thinks the absolute worst of Donald Trump and is willing to indulge the absolute worst inferences of him, probably rightfully so.

However, that is pretty much the paradigm of a biased juror.  While the prosecution is going to do everything in its power to obtain biased jurors, so is the defense, the other way.  So you absolutely must plan a case to convince at best neutral jurors, and at worst those biased against you.

None of these prosecutors are going to indict just because they can, and they can.  They're going to want to convict, whether the royal we do or not.

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2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

One of the problems with discussing it here is everyone thinks the absolute worst of Donald Trump and is willing to indulge the absolute worst inferences of him, probably rightfully so.

However, that is pretty much the paradigm of a biased juror.  While the prosecution is going to do everything in its power to obtain biased jurors, so is the defense, the other way.  So you absolutely must plan a case to convince at best neutral jurors, and at worst those biased against you.

Anyone who can be neutral about Donald Trump is a brainless simpleton.

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16 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I disagree strongly here. I find white collar crime to be just as bad, and in many ways, worse than blue collar crime. A crime of passion (Uncle Leo), is understandable in many instances and is often a spur of the moment thing. White collar crime is pre-meditated and purposeful and can hurt way more people over the long run than blue collar crime. It’s pure fucking evil. 

Well, the societal cost of just one white collar crime, which might as well be defined as those crimes which police do not investigate, wage theft, the stealing of duly earned wages, is  three times the amount of all robberies, shoplifting to bank robbery. So, yeah.

This source says three times as much. 
 

Quote

Unfortunately, the truth is that wage theft has been identified as the largest type of theft in the United States. It is responsible for roughly 3 times as much economic loss as other types of theft combined.

https://www.edelson-law.com/blog/2022/10/wage-theft-outpaces-all-other-theft-in-america/#:~:text=Unfortunately%2C the truth is that,other types of theft combined.

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8 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

 

Well, the societal cost of just one white collar crime, which might as well be defined as those crimes which police do not investigate, wage theft, the stealing of duly earned wages, is  three times the amount of all robberies, shoplifting to bank robbery. So, yeah.

This source says three times as much. 
 

https://www.edelson-law.com/blog/2022/10/wage-theft-outpaces-all-other-theft-in-america/#:~:text=Unfortunately%2C the truth is that,other types of theft combined.

The very next line in the linked article is an outrage:

Quote

According to a report from the National Employment Law Project, in 2019 approximately $9.27 billion in wages was stolen from workers who earned less than $13 an hour. 

 

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