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The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread


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1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I hope they fucking lose out. Fuck all this pussy ass “we need so and so to win.”

 

its pathetic. Win out and let the chips fall where they may. If we dont make the playoff, i really dont care because this team doesnt deserve the playoff, losing to that shit team/coaching staff in the cotton bowl

Lol what a chode

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23 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

Well this is wrong seeing as our likely opponent is already at 15 and will likely win 3 more to get to the CCG.

Yeah, just ball parking it.  Still, likely not in the top 10 with who they have left to play.  My point is that there is no path that makes our CCG a really big win against a top brand that is highly ranked.  OU crapping themselves removed that as a possibility.  Compare that to the possibility of OSU/Mich, Oregon/Wash, Bama/Georgia (not saying all those will be highly ranked, but at least there is a possibility).  Those CCG games will carry a lot of weight (much more than our week 2 win).  We really need PAC to self destruct before CCG or for FSU to lose whenever.  I think think it very likely we get a spot if we win out, but certainly need some help.    

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59 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

 


I remember that time in 2008 when a 1-loss Texas got left out while a team we beat played in the NC game, and how we all were super chill about it and just shrugged our shoulders and said “that sort of sucked.”

 

That was completely different because we got buttfucked by humans with an agenda. 
 

If we get left out this time it’s because there are 4 undefeated conference champions and we are the only team left standing that’s not. 

If that happens I’m not mad at anybody but us. And I’m not even mad. 12-1 is a great season with a really good but flawed team. 
 

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Bama is not going to jump us as long as we win out.  We won by double digits on their home field in a game we completely dominated.  There is a reason they ranked Oregon is ahead and not Bama, we already know how they see it.  We just need to win out, that is all that matters.  A Texas team in the playoffs would be a big ratings hit for the networks and there will be a push for us.  We also just beat a well coached top 25 team with our backup QB. Let’s not act like pussies.  

 

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1 hour ago, wild_turkey said:

 


I remember that time in 2008 when a 1-loss Texas got left out while a team we beat played in the NC game, and how we all were super chill about it and just shrugged our shoulders and said “that sort of sucked.”

 

2008 was a far different scenario. After Tech rolled over and spread their cheeks for OU, the Big12 tiebreaker rules let a team that we beat clinch the Big12 South and thus granted them an extra game to win. Also, a certain asshole voted us very low in the coaches poll. Us getting fucked that season was one of the reasons why we moved to a four team playoff in 2014.

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7 minutes ago, victory88 said:

Bama is not going to jump us as long as we win out.  We won by double digits on their home field in a game we completely dominated.  There is a reason they ranked Oregon is ahead and not Bama, we already know how they see it.  We just need to win out, that is all that matters.  A Texas team in the playoffs would be a big ratings hit for the networks and there will be a push for us.  We also just beat a well coached top 25 team with our backup QB. Let’s not act like pussies.  

 

Wait. You actually think that if bama wins out, including the SEC championship, that we’d still be ahead of them at the end of the year?  Where the fucking have you been the last 10 years that makes you think that the cfp is going to keep a 1 loss sec champ out of the playoff?

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23 minutes ago, victory88 said:

Bama is not going to jump us as long as we win out.  We won by double digits on their home field in a game we completely dominated.  There is a reason they ranked Oregon is ahead and not Bama, we already know how they see it.  We just need to win out, that is all that matters.  A Texas team in the playoffs would be a big ratings hit for the networks and there will be a push for us.  We also just beat a well coached top 25 team with our backup QB. Let’s not act like pussies.  

 

I wouldn’t be so sure. A handful of voters (7 out of 63 by my count) already have Bama ahead of us. If they win out including a win vs UGA, a lot more will join them, and I’m sure some CFP members will too.

https://collegepolltracker.com/football/grid/2023/week-11#alabama-crimson-tideIf 

Edited by LonghornSean
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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There is so much stupid in here at all times. Who the fuck cares if Bama jumps us?  They either lose to Georgia and that takes care of itself or they beat Georgia and Georgia falls below us. 

Before you declare everyone stupid, maybe it would help to understand that everyone knows Georgia would drop behind us. The scenario being discussed if Bama passes us is Bama, Mich/OSU, Fla St, and Washington.  And that scenario is a very real possibility, as is Georgia, Mich/OSU, Fla St, and Washington.

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5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Before you declare everyone stupid, maybe it would help to understand that everyone knows Georgia would drop behind us. The scenario being discussed if Bama passes us is Bama, Mich/OSU, Fla St, and Washington.  And that scenario is a very real possibility, as is Georgia, Mich/OSU, Fla St, and Washington.

If bama beats UGA in a close fought sec title game, I can already see the hardcore politicking for making UGA the 4th seed. Two time defending champion whose only loss is to bama in the last 36 or so games. I actually think that is the ultimate disaster 2008 all over again scenario for us. It would be absurd for a 12-1 champ to be passed over by a 12-1 non champ, but prepare your anus for the “quality losses” argument and to sweat it out if that happens. 

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There is so much stupid in here at all times. Who the fuck cares if Bama jumps us?  They either lose to Georgia and that takes care of itself or they beat Georgia and Georgia falls below us. 

 

7 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Before you declare everyone stupid, maybe it would help to understand that everyone knows Georgia would drop behind us. 

The Goldbergs What GIF by ABC Network

 

Y'all are pretty brave. The back to back secsecsec defending national champions lose their only game of the year in the secsecsec super bowl against Bama and they're out of the playoffs? They should drop below Texas or whoever else and out of the playoffs, but it's sec

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16 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Before you declare everyone stupid, maybe it would help to understand that everyone knows Georgia would drop behind us. The scenario being discussed if Bama passes us is Bama, Mich/OSU, Fla St, and Washington.  And that scenario is a very real possibility, as is Georgia, Mich/OSU, Fla St, and Washington.

I’m aware of what the scenario is.  The point is this- the SEC was always going to be ahead of us barring something freakish happen and then undefeateds in other major conferences.  Is it theoretically possible everyone wins out?  Sure, uh, I guess?  But it’s like 90+ percent texas goes at 12-1, and if we don’t I doubt it’s a screw job we howl over forever. 
what I’m saying is chill. 

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57 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

I wouldn’t be so sure. A handful of voters (7 out of 63 by my count) already have Bama ahead of us. If they win out including a win vs UGA, a lot more will join them, and I’m sure some CFP members will too.

https://collegepolltracker.com/football/grid/2023/week-11#alabama-crimson-tideIf 

This. A late season conference championship game win trumps any early season loss.  Recency bias or not. 

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2 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

This. A late season conference championship game win trumps any early season loss.  Recency bias or not. 

And in that scenario we would both have a late season conference championship win. 

I am in the camp that if only 1 one loss team gets in and it’s between us and Alabama, we are the ones getting in. H2H games have to matter between conference champions, otherwise we should never play those games. 

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3 hours ago, George said:

Wait. You actually think that if bama wins out, including the SEC championship, that we’d still be ahead of them at the end of the year?  Where the fucking have you been the last 10 years that makes you think that the cfp is going to keep a 1 loss sec champ out of the playoff?

Yes

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2 hours ago, CycleTex87 said:

This. A late season conference championship game win trumps any early season loss.  Recency bias or not. 

+1.  I don't think it's a guaranteed outcome either way, but I'd bet on Bama jumping Texas if they win out with a "mic drop" beat down of undefeated Georgia in CCG.  Despite being neutral field, people would give that fresh win the edge over a week 2 Texas win over Bama. That's was Bama with a QB making his ~3rd? career start before they got rolling.  Then you look at quality of loss and people will give the clear edge to Bama.  The head to head would still carry weight, but probably not enough to make up for the other headwinds.  

Also, it seems clear from week 1 that CFP committee cares about how you win.  I struggle to justify Oregon's rating over Texas based on W/L and schedule.  But they are winning the beauty contest.  Their best win is against Utah (their only win against a ranked team).  We've got wins against ranked Alabama and Kansas (and maybe KSU if they work their way back in).  I get that the eye test matters, but I think our results are measurably better up to this point.  Besides the style points, the losses also matter and Oregon's loss is looking much better than ours (thanks again OU).  

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54 minutes ago, TxEx84 said:

Kentucky beats Alabama this weekend.  So that solved that. 

Both of these teams seem to have multiple personality disorder. I've seen Kentucky look really, really solid. I've also seen them look like hot garbage. Being at home will help, I guess. Leary isn't the same QB he was before all of the injuries. He's playing with a sore shoulder right now. I expect Dallas Turner to make every effort to cheap shot Leary and remove him from the equation. 

Milroe still sucks as a short to mid level passer. He throws a great deep ball. He's a great runner. I don't see Bama having solved their problems and weak spots on offense. I see an offense that hasn't played much competition on the defensive side of the ball. Stoops and Kentucky can play defense. They're going to work to contain and key off of Milroe. The Bama OL is pathetic, the TBs are pedestrian and the WRs and Dippre remain non-entities. Niblack is pretty damned good and that's about it. 

Bama is a better football team, but Kentucky pulling the upset wouldn't be completely stunning. 

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Lines (Circa) for playoff contender games... everyone has a relatively losable game per betting odds except for Ohio State

Bama -11 at Kentucky

Michigan -5 at Penn State

FSU -14.5 vs Miami

Washington -9 vs Utah

Georgia -11.5 vs Ole Miss

Ohio State -32 vs Michigan State

Oregon -15 vs USC

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We just need one conference to implode over the next 4 weeks which isn't unrealistic and usually happens eventually. 

Current conference ranking of positioning to get in.

1. B10- 2 in the top 4 that play each other and get a cake walk int he CCG

2. SEC- Georgia only has to survive and get through against Bama in Atlanta. Bama gets in at 12-1.

3. P12- Ranked 5 and 6 just waiting for the Mich/tOSU to play. CCG rematch determines who goes.  

4. ACC- Only 1 team that can get in and can't afford a slip up from FSU. Louisville at 12-1 would need a miracle to make the CFP. 

5. B12- Only Texas can make it but need 1 of the other conferences to implode. 

 

So of that our most realistic opportunities to get in come from FSU, Washington, and Oregon. Bolded matchups that could cause the chaos we need. 

FSU finishes with  Miami, North Alabama, and Florida. Then likely get to play Louisville for the ACC title. 

Washington finishes with Utah, Oregon State, and Washington State before a Oregon rematch in the CCG. 

Oregon finishes with USC, ASU, and Oregon State before a rematch with Washington

 

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AP Top 25 - November 12
 
RK
TEAM
REC PTS
TREND
1
GeorgiaUGA(54)
10-0 1540
-
2
MichiganMICH(7)
10-0 1464
-
3
Ohio StateOSU(1)
10-0 1433
-
4
Florida StateFSU
10-0 1366
-
5 10-0 1322
-
6
OregonORE
9-1 1218
-
7
TexasTEX
9-1 1180
-
8
AlabamaALA
9-1 1141
-
9
LouisvilleLOU
9-1 1002
2
10 8-2 934
2
11
MissouriMIZ
8-2 917
5
12
Penn StatePSU
8-2 857
3
13 8-2 810
3
14
OklahomaOU
8-2 733
3
15
LSULSU
7-3 703
3
16 7-3 543
3
17 9-1 412
3
18
James MadisonJMU
10-0 405
3
19 7-3 387
4
20
Notre DameND
7-3 359
2
21 7-3 333
7
22
North CarolinaUNC
8-2 265
2
23
Kansas StateKSU
7-3 240
NR
24 7-3 178
9
25
LibertyLIB
10-0 133
-
 

Others receiving votes: Iowa 111, Kansas 83, Toledo 51, Fresno State 13, USC 5, SMU 4, UNLV 4, NC State 2, Texas A&M 1, Miami (OH) 1

Dropped from rankings: Kansas 19

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I've been tracking this since we used this thread to make some predictions before the season. I've spoilered what I wrote in early August below for my own entertainment. I feel like 7 out of 10 at this stage of the season is pretty good. I had USC, Iowa and Utah in my top 10 instead of Oregon, Missouri, and Louisville. I don't think anyone picked Mizzou or Louisville in the preseason, so, yeah. I said the Pac 12 was kind of interchangeable at the top and I'd prefer to bet on Williams over Nix since the rumor was that the USC defense was improving. Welp. 

Things that piss me off as a fan with these rankings:

a) Penn State - They're 11th in the AP. They're going to finish the regular season in the top 10 after some upheaval in rivalries and conference title games ahead of them. Why does James Franklin continue to get the benefit of the doubt from anyone? The Big 10 is a bad football league and that fucking idiot shits the bed any time he plays someone of consequence. I don't think PSU would beat another 1 or 2 loss team in the rankings besides Iowa, again. 

b) LSU - They're the highest ranked 3 loss team. LSU has a good win against a good Missouri team on the road. Besides that, they've lost to the other 3 teams with a pulse on their schedule: FSU, Ole Miss, and Bama. The rest of their games are mostly blowouts against objectively terrible to mediocre teams.

c) Oregon State ranked ahead of Arizona - Arizona has a bad loss, at home, in the season opener against Mississippi State. They lost that game in OT by one score. They've lost two other games by one score each, one being in overtime. They've since won 5 straight to get to 8-3. One of those wins in that streak? Oregon State. OSU has 3 losses and the loss to Wazzou is marginally better than the UA loss to Miss State. All 3 losses are close, but head to head should matter. Some of these voters are lazy and likely forgot about the H2H in the first place.

d) Tennessee - This team has no business being ranked. UTenn is 7-4. Each of the 4 losses are by two scores or more and 2 of the losses are outright blowouts. Tennessee has beaten: Virginia (3-8), Austin Peay (FCS, they should be ashamed playing them and I'm not looking up their record on principle. It's FCS, fuck you, Tennessee), UTSA (8-3, Frank Harris was hurt this game for UTSA), South Carolina (5-6), ATM (7-4), Kentucky (6-5), and UConn (2-9 - These pussies played UConn and an FCS school.) They finish the season against a pathetic Vanderbilt (2-9) team and will head to a bowl at 8-4. Their signature win is ...??? ATM? UTSA? And we'll get to hear about how tough they are. They'll get matched up in a bowl against some middling, shitsack of a team from the Big 10 or ACC, win the bowl by one score, and then help the SEC declare CFB hegemony yet again. 

 

Spoiler

I'm a lot better at negging teams than building them up when I read about them and/or watch them. Mostly, it's more fun as a fan doing it that way, to me, at least. So realize that when you see my posts on other teams and then look at what I actually think is a decent top 10, because several that I hated on will still be listed. 

1) Georgia - Cakewalk schedule, NFL OL, star NFL-level dynamic TE, loaded defense. They get a lot of default credit as an offense, but there are chinks in that armor. Bobo is bum who was hired via hubris by his college roommate. The TBs get a lot of credit in the magazines, but I don't see it. Highly rated, sure, but they're not amazing. They play behind an amazing line, sure. I wouldn't trade their WRs for ours. The guy from Mizzou was effectively told by Mizzou that he wouldn't be the featured WR this season, so he left. I saw McJaggey getting NFL draft talk somewhere. GTFO. The hyphen guy is okay but nothing scary. Bowers is a fucking beast. Muschamp and Smart running Smart's defense is over the top. 

2) Michigan - McCarthy is excellent. The TBs are excellent in tandem. They have a high caliber OL. They have a solid young TE. Their WRs aren't going to scare anyone. Defensively, they're going to take a step back. Heavy losses on the DL and in the secondary, but they return all starters and good backups at LB. Their schedule is a fucking embarrassment. 

3) Florida State - If they beat LSU, I think they can still lose to Clemson make the playoffs. They have high quality talent at QB, TB, and WR. They return 3 All ACC OLs and a 3 year starter from Colorado on the OL. They return serious talent across the board on defense and added quality starting transfers to fill holes. The schedule is LSU basically at home, @ Clemson and a shit ton of ACC mediocrity finished with @ UF, who is down still. They basically need to show up for two games all year and win at least one of them.

4) USC - People are sleeping on the Pac 12 this year. There are 6 high quality teams in the league (USC, UCLA, OSU, Oregon, UW, Utah) and USC might be the best of them. They'll be one of the best offenses in the country. They're still going to be soft on defense, but they were damned close last year to that not mattering and it might be the same this year. That said, their schedule is fucking tough from game 6 (Arizona) onward. Arizona, @ ND, Utah, @ Cal, UW, @ Oregon, UCLA without an off week (other than Cal) is a tough run.

5) Washington - People will laugh. They have a stacked WR room, a star QB, two good tackles and a great offensive scheme. They return a ton on defense, including multiple large Pacific islanders. The coach is damned good. The Pac 12 is going to beat each other up, so maybe none of these Pac teams finish better than 10-3, but several of them are good enough to be a playoff team.

6) Ohio State - All of my earlier negging aside, they have amazing skill talent on offense, dynamic guys at key spots on defense, and, potential pedophilia proclivities aside, Day is an excellent QB coach so that open question probably gets answered well. They'll beat the shit out of ND and handle the schedule, as they always do, before apparently collapsing against UM. 

7) Texas

8 ) Utah - Another tough Pac 12 team. If Rising is back and healthy, which they're saying he is, they'll be experienced and tough. They have elite WR and TE talent and a strong OL. They return a ton on defense and they're tough as leather. I think they'll handle UF and then win @ Baylor. When that happens, the hype train is off and running. You know they can beat USC. They'd also have to handle UCLA, @ UW, and Oregon, so, tough duty. 

9) Iowa - I can hear the cackling. They avoid UM and Ohio State. They return one of the best defenses in the country. The special teams is always excellent. I don't even need to worry about whether their OL, TEs and TBs will be solid. Cade McNamara is the best QB they'll have had there in years. They have a very manageable schedule, albeit away games at PSU and Wiscy will not be fun. Nebraska beat them in Iowa City last year, so they'll be a problem to end it. That said, I could see Iowa being 11-1 and playing Michigan for a playoff spot. 

10) Alabama - They're deeper than LSU and LSU is one injury away at QB from being a .500 team. The schedule is tough but it's Saban, so I'm lazily picking them. 

Fuck Clemson and their whiteboy awesome backfield, they never have great OLs, and their WRs scare no one. I already picked Iowa in the top 10 as my defense first choice selection.

K State would require me believing in Will Howard and I don't.

I cited why I think LSU and Penn State shouldn't be in the top 10. 

Notre Dame doesn't have the dogs, Hartman won't be enough, and I am not convinced Freeman has it all figured out yet. 

I got tired of picking Pac 12 teams so Bo Nix and Chip Kelly can go fuck themselves. 

I will believe Joe Milton is viable QB for a top 10 team when I see it. 

I thought about picking UTSA since they're loaded with a star QB, just for grins, but their non conference schedule includes Tennessee and Neyland is a tough place to pull off that kind of upset. If they lose one game, they're not making a top 10. 

 

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coaches are pissed at the conference upheaval so they keep osu ahead of us..

 

fucking amazing. we lose to our bitter rival on a last drive and they jump us because they played no one and didnt lose.

they lose to their bitter rival because they CANT win on a last drive and now are ranked ahead of us because WHY???

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings

 

RK
TEAM
REC PTS
TREND
1
GeorgiaGeorgia(59)
12-0 1571
-
2 12-0 1506
1
3 12-0 1417
2
4 12-0 1403
-
5 11-1 1278
1
6 11-1 1250
4
7 11-1 1226
-
8 11-1 1182
-
9 10-2 1034
1
10 10-2 967
1
11 10-2 937
1
12 10-2 895
1
13
LSULSU
9-3 780
1
14 10-2 716
5
15 9-3 681
1
16 9-3 602
1
17 10-2 553
2
18 11-1 549
-
19 9-3 417
2
20 9-3 303
4
21 8-4 253
6
22 12-0 236
-
23 8-4 209
-
24
SMUSMU
10-2 135
1
25 11-1 79
NR
 
Complete Rankings

Others receiving votes: Toledo 68, Clemson 64, Kansas State 54, Utah 54, Troy 25, Kansas 15, West Virginia 10, UNLV 4, New Mexico State 1, San José State 1

Dropped from rankings: Kansas State 20

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For what it’s worth, Texas is closer in points to Oregon at 5, than to Bama at 8.

AP Top 25
 
RK
TEAM
REC PTS
TREND
1
GeorgiaUGA(52)
12-0 1540
-
2
MichiganMICH(10)
12-0 1495
1
3 12-0 1413
1
4
Florida StateFSU
12-0 1358
1
5
OregonORE
11-1 1277
1
6
Ohio StateOSU
11-1 1251
4
7
TexasTEX
11-1 1205
-
8
AlabamaALA
11-1 1125
-
9
MissouriMIZ
10-2 1011
1
10
Penn StatePSU
10-2 961
1
11 10-2 936
1
12
OklahomaOU
10-2 857
1
13
LSULSU
9-3 809
1
14 9-3 712
2
15
LouisvilleLOU
10-2 689
6
16
Notre DameND
9-3 592
1
17 11-1 557
1
18 10-2 458
2
19 9-3 407
2
20
LibertyLIB
12-0 293
2
21 9-3 269
NR
  8-4 269
6
23
ToledoTOL
11-1 176
-
24
James MadisonJMU
11-1 121
-
25
SMUSMU
10-2 108
NR
 

Others receiving votes: Tennessee 98, Clemson 57, Kansas State 41, Utah 40, Troy 7, Kansas 6, New Mexico State 5, Kentucky 4, Memphis 1, Miami (OH) 1, North Carolina 1

Dropped from rankings: Kansas State 19, Tennessee 25

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10 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

Kurt Bowels has us ranked behind Oregon too. Fuck that motherfucker

at this point its clearly an act.   we are the only fucking school with a hometown voter who fucking refuses to vote his hometown team ahead of anyone who matters.

"but hes got integrity and voting his heart"

BULL FUCKING SHIT. 

every other voter in a hometown is a fucking homer except his ass.  and its easily the 7th or 8th fucking year(of the last 20 that matters) of him voting against Texas in the ranks or heisman votes

 

every single Big 10 voter has  michigan, ohio state, oregon above us and penn state, iowa & notre dame as high up as they can vote them.   he just fucks with us everytime.

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On 11/5/2023 at 5:28 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

If we get left out this time it’s because there are 4 undefeated conference champions and we are the only team left standing that’s not. 

If that happens I’m not mad at anybody but us. And I’m not even mad. 12-1 is a great season with a really good but flawed team. 
 

If the top four remain undefeated, I'd be disappointed for Texas, but still quite happy with how the season progressed. I wasn't posting or lurking much at all due to work, but despite the injuries, the team just kept plugging away and also kept improving. Looking back, seems like 5-7 eventually yielding 12-1 is a nice accomplishment. Perhaps not the final goal but it does look a whole lot more within reach.

On 11/5/2023 at 5:37 PM, victory88 said:

 A Texas team in the playoffs would be a big ratings hit for the networks and there will be a push for us.  We also just beat a well coached top 25 team with our backup QB. Let’s not act like pussies.  

 

I've wondered about this before because I'm pretty ignorant about how much viewer ratings and potential $$ plays into what is already a biased system (despite efforts to reduce its effect). That Texas is ranked 7th instead of ahead of Oregon is problematic but not insurmountable with winning against OSU and some luck. OU ending up 10-2 is perhaps helpful? Margin of victory is not supposed to be incentivized by the committee (per their protocol I believe) but that's where I kinda shrug and nod, "Yeah riiiiight." Curb stomp OSU and improve the odds a little.

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On 10/15/2023 at 1:39 PM, hornbri said:

I like to imagine Washington, North Carolina, Big 10 team, and Alabama wins the SEC with Texas sitting right there. 

Then somehow Texas costing the SEC a spot in the playoffs the last year in before joining. 

I was wrong about the ACC team but this might be happening.

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