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Posted
1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

Potentially eliminating Iran's nuclear program

I am completely stumped why anyone thinks this would be the case. We didn't zap Iran with the Men in Black memory eraser, we just bombed them. It's a temporary delay to their program at worst. 

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Posted

I hate this and think it was a really fucking bad move. 

However, I do think people have slept on US military capabilities for the last 10 years and especially since Russia Ukraine got going. Its absolutely wild how much more capability US military has over anyone. I don't think this was just about Iran and Israel, it was an excuse to remind everyone for real. 

1 minute ago, G650 said:

I am completely stumped why anyone thinks this would be the case. We didn't zap Iran with the Men in Black memory eraser, we just bombed them. It's a temporary delay to their program at worst. 

I'm not trying to be a dick here, but I think you are not understanding what exactly happened. 

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Posted

I'm not a defense wonk, but I don't like that the military gave the entire playbook for the attack in a PC.  Why?  All we need to know is that they did the deed and the results.  Does anybody need a sales job that they are good and have good stuff?

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Posted
2 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'm not trying to be a dick here, but I think you are not understanding what exactly happened. 

I am not sure you guys do. All we did was wipe out the physical assets.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, G650 said:

I am completely stumped why anyone thinks this would be the case. We didn't zap Iran with the Men in Black memory eraser, we just bombed them. It's a temporary delay to their program at worst. 

Isreal took out their top couple of levels of scientists. If I were an Iranian nuclear scientist, it may be a while before I returned to work. They have absolutely no protection right now. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, G650 said:

I am not sure you guys do. All we did was wipe out the physical assets.

Yeah, have wondered if open sourcing “how to build a nuke program” to the Muslim world might be on the table if Iran became convinced that the combined Israeli/US operations were intended to erase its existence.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, G650 said:

I am not sure you guys do. All we did was wipe out the physical assets.

How exactly do you enrich uranium without any facilities, I'm all ears.

How long do you think it takes to build such facilities? Do you think Iran has the capability to build these facilities with no help from anyone? 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, G650 said:

I am completely stumped why anyone thinks this would be the case. We didn't zap Iran with the Men in Black memory eraser, we just bombed them. It's a temporary delay to their program at worst. 

I've kind of been of the opinion that if Iran really wanted a nuke, they could have had one by now. They're not stupid, and it's not like the process of building a fission bomb is a closely guarded secret.

The whole point of having nukes is to not get nuked.

Plus, people have been pointing this out but the likelihood of them moving their stockpile has to be close to 100%. They had plenty of time to do it and it's not that much material, relatively speaking.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, immamac said:

Do you think Iran has the capability to build these facilities with no help from anyone? 

 

They do now that they built them in the first place.

 

I mean, if you guys think Iran's institutional knowledge just disappeared, bully for you, but I have a wonderful bridge I'd like to sell you.

 

16 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Yeah, have wondered if open sourcing “how to build a nuke program” to the Muslim world might be on the table if Iran became convinced that the combined Israeli/US operations were intended to erase its existence.

 

Indeed

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Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Notably, Intel is being withheld internally from those who are statutorily supposed to be seeing and advising based on it. If you're not in the Party, then your elected office means nothing

Withhding Intel from the gang of eight is just further dissolving the checks and balances, as we are flying full speed towards a shooting war without the consent of the governed. Wonderful.

 

 

I think they were trying to avoid leaks

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Posted
38 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Anyone painting this in simple terms isn't paying any attention or is driving a narrative. 

This engagement or war if you prefer involves the globes 3 largest nuclear powers, shit tons of proxies, the entire ME OG, Israel, and a region whose control has been fought over "globally" for well, since Alexander the Great, and regionally prior.

People often  get their news from their biased Twitter content or whatever platform and tend to regurgitate whatever their teams talking heads are saying. Sadly, the ability to have logical, complex discussion just aren't very realistic because it requires looking at all sides of the issues, of which there are  numerous in this instance. It also requires one to be open minded enough to be critical of one's own "team" and at times supportive of the other. 

I'll use some examples on me.

I strongly believe and was in favor of ending Iranian nuclear capabilities. I am strongly in favor of the current Iranian regime being toppled. I am glad the attacks were made, I am fearful of the reprocussions. I don't like that the talk from our politicians is that it wasn't to overthrow the current regime, but I understand to say otherwise could potentially escalate this already extremely dangerous situation to a far worse level. 

I don't want US troops in Iran but recognize that attacks by Iran or it's it's proxies could lead to that reality.

I would like Iranian people to he free of tyrannical rule and to find its own autonomy but realize that's mostly hopeful. 

I don't have any confidence in the current US leadership to handle the situation smoothy or with tact, but acknowledge it's the hand we are dealt. 

I wish this group of largely university educated middle class and intelligent posters could have a complex conversation and discuss news and developments rationally without dropping in constant political shit talking commonly found on social media. I also acknowledge that's not going to happen and it bums me out, because if this group can't there is zero hope for the US public at large to do so.

Friendly reminder, you falsely accused me of being racist because I raised concerns about how toppling the current Iranian regime can have any number of unintended negative consequences, because the situation is so complex and may not work according to plan (if there even is one).

Hopefully, it does all work out, but drawing the simplistic conclusion that I'm a racist for discussing potential blowback does nothing to elevate the debate.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

I've kind of been of the opinion that if Iran really wanted a nuke, they could have had one by now. They're not stupid, and it's not like the process of building a fission bomb is a closely guarded secret.

The whole point of having nukes is to not get nuked.

Plus, people have been pointing this out but the likelihood of them moving their stockpile has to be close to 100%. They had plenty of time to do it and it's not that much material, relatively speaking.

I don't disagree with the point in broad strokes but a few questions that need asking.

1) Nobody was using drones, satellites, or air to monitor movements around these facilities?

2) The lead scientist of the Iranian regime were taken out. Are those assets easily replaceable?

3) Does everyone presume other, non-disclosed locations where materials may have been moved weren't also struck?

It events of this sort, more often than not there is as much as we don't know as do.

Posted
22 minutes ago, Hate said:

Isreal took out their top couple of levels of scientists. If I were an Iranian nuclear scientist, it may be a while before I returned to work. They have absolutely no protection right now. 

We did it in the 1940s from scratch with little computing power and no institutional knowledge.  They have 80 years of  a lot of public knowledge and decades of institutional knowledge to draw from, and computers and manufacturing capabilities that Oppenheimer could only dream of.  I would be shocked if they didn’t have backup facilities and/or they didn’t move a lot of stuff around after the war with Israel started.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

They do now that they built them in the first place.

 

I mean, if you guys think Iran's institutional knowledge just disappeared, bully for you, but I have a wonderful bridge I'd like to sell you.

 

 

Indeed

Iran got a shit ton of help building those from the Russians. Sure, they could attempt to rebuild new bunkers and bring in new scientists. After all this money was spent to get this far, is it possible that some eyes might be on such activities? 

Finally if there was nothing in them and they were easy to rebuild why did Russia get so twitchy about them getting bombed and pull their scientists out of Iran?

Russia warns strike on Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant could cause 'Chernobyl-style catastrophe' - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-warns-strike-irans-bushehr-nuclear-plant-could-cause-chernobyl-style-2025-06-19/

Posted
 
I think they were trying to avoid leaks

Why just this particular time? Or is this the new norm under Taco Tits? (Pretty sure I know the answer.)
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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We did it in the 1940s from scratch with little computing power and no institutional knowledge.  They have 80 years of  a lot of public knowledge and decades of institutional knowledge to draw from, and computers and manufacturing capabilities that Oppenheimer could only dream of.  I would be shocked if they didn’t have backup facilities and/or they didn’t move a lot of stuff around after the war with Israel started.

What kind of drugs do some of you do? 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We did it in the 1940s from scratch with little computing power and no institutional knowledge.  They have 80 years of  a lot of public knowledge and decades of institutional knowledge to draw from, and computers and manufacturing capabilities that Oppenheimer could only dream of.  I would be shocked if they didn’t have backup facilities and/or they didn’t move a lot of stuff around after the war with Israel started.

Based on what Israel was able to do, all news outlets make it pretty clear than Israel had pretty much free movement over the skies of Iran. 

It's also clear by the scary moves the Mossad made they, unlike some, still believe strongly in HUMINT. 

I'm not claiming it's not possible that Iran moved material and has other facilities. It does seem the prevailing idea is that they likely moved it without considering the realities of Israeli and US intelligence while do so. Particularly given the realities of Iran's situation.

Again, what don't we know. That blade cuts both ways.

Posted
12 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Friendly reminder, you falsely accused me of being racist because I raised concerns about how toppling the current Iranian regime can have any number of unintended negative consequences, because the situation is so complex and may not work according to plan (if there even is one).

Hopefully, it does all work out, but drawing the simplistic conclusion that I'm a racist for discussing potential blowback does nothing to elevate the debate.

I didn't call you specifically a racist. I said the presumption that the people of Iran had zero chance of finding their own autonomy if the current regime was toppled was racist. 

It was the primary reason being provided by many for why US shouldn't get involved. They are now, so it is a moot point. 

Happy to discuss it in more clarity outside this thread if you like. 

Posted
49 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

 

So there really isn't a plan after day 1, just, we'll see what happens.

Why do you think there isn’t a plan? Because of something Goredho on surlyhorns posted?

 

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Nearly the whole stockpile of MOP's has been dropped. Sure would be a kick in the pants if it turned out that they just moved their stockpile prior to the attack since the president had been saber rattling so hard about their nuclear materials

That’s weird. It almost seems like you’re rooting for that to be the case. 
 


 

Also, Iran is not “closing the strait”. That involves Omani waters   

 

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Posted
Just now, immamac said:

What kind of drugs do some of you do? 

As insular as they are, North Korea built a nuclear weapons program 30 years ago from 1970s Pakistani knowledge, and produced their own weapons 20 years ago.

It’s 2025. Iran has access to tech that is decades ahead of what NK and Pakistan used.  They have plenty of nuclear scientists, many trained in the West at top universities.

It is arrogant and dangerous of us to think that bombing a few sites will destroy a program.  They’ve had decades of preparing for the West possibly bombing them (our invasion of Iraq over dubious/ginned-up evidence informed them that they were on a timer).

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Posted
35 minutes ago, immamac said:

How exactly do you enrich uranium without any facilities, I'm all ears.

How long do you think it takes to build such facilities? Do you think Iran has the capability to build these facilities with no help from anyone? 

Iran and most all those ME countries can’t keep any of their machinery & electronics running without outside (western/Chinese) help.

Posted
50 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

I'm not a defense wonk, but I don't like that the military gave the entire playbook for the attack in a PC.  Why?  All we need to know is that they did the deed and the results.  Does anybody need a sales job that they are good and have good stuff?

More than a few countries took note, and quite a few intelligence staffs are working OT to assess if their own facilities are safe. 
 

Yes, there is some value in the infomercial approach. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Iraq in 2003 put Iran on notice.  Even if we hit their main facilities and kill some scientists, they’ll just restart it elsewhere.   Pakistan and North Korea used the same justification to create their programs (not the destruction of the West, but the preservation of their states). There is a survival mentality there that we don’t understand, because that’s 80 years ago for us.

And let’s be clear here: this war was most likely started because Netanyahu’s government barely survived a no-confidence vote, so I’m a bit suspicious of anything being said by Israel and the US.  Netanyahu needed a distraction and a win in the worst possible way.

You think nukes are just some easy fucking thing? 

You should fucking know better, everyone also knows how to make a hard drive, no one does it except 3 companies on earth, because it's hard as fuck and extremely expensive. 

1) how will they fund it? 

2) who will sell them what they need?

3) how the fuck is it gonna get there?

4) we just fucking ez mode bombed the absolute fuck out of everything they had and we will do it again if they even try to start again. 

North Korea had China protecting them the entire time. Ain't no one stepping up or in for Iran. Everyone has straight up noped out. 

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Posted

The biggest single issue is, just like the last 20-30 years, we don't KNOW where their nuclear program "is at."  Even if it is currently destroyed, I'm guessing we gave them a huge motivator to start it right back up, and apace this time.

If you think this is some kind of final solution to the Iranian nuclear problem, I think you are deluding yourself.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Ghost of NMAS said:

Yes because the GOP has shown itself to be leakproof right

 

It absolutely has not, however... only GOP senators were briefed, and nothing specific leaked. Relative to past congressional leaks, it was a pretty tight ship.

Posted
2 minutes ago, immamac said:

You think nukes are just some easy fucking thing? 

You should fucking know better, everyone also knows how to make a hard drive, no one does it except 3 companies on earth, because it's hard as fuck and extremely expensive. 

1) how will they fund it? 

2) who will sell them what they need?

3) how the fuck is it gonna get there?

4) we just fucking ez mode bombed the absolute fuck out of everything they had and we will do it again if they even try to start again. 

North Korea had China protecting them the entire time. Ain't no one stepping up or in for Iran. Everyone has straight up noped out. 

This is a 1000 year war for the Iranian extremists. Unless there is regime change, this is a minor setback in their minds. 

 

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Posted
Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

This is a 1000 year war for the Iranian extremists. Unless there is regime change, this is a minor setback in their minds. 

 

They are delusional and retarded. It's almost like some of you are rooting for them holy shit. 

Can you pretend for 2 seconds that you live in reality and the US engaged Iran with weapons that no one can compete with of defend against. The US military is not a paper tiger and we are all hoping that they don't actually use more of what they have. 

No one is getting nukes without the US China or Russia sanctioning and helping them or protecting them. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

GuA4srSW0AAISrn?format=jpg&name=medium

Wait, so the Iranian Parliament is saying that they took care of everything in advance and this is basically zero issue for their nuclear program? Shocked. 

images(3).jpeg.16be42eec8c7910f05b0858587ca5384.jpeg

Posted
2 hours ago, aggie08 said:

It's really been an incredibly sobering reminder about just how easily we were sold on WMD Iraq.

At least back then they had the courtesy to tell good lies, now they don't even bother.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

The biggest single issue is, just like the last 20-30 years, we don't KNOW where their nuclear program "is at."  Even if it is currently destroyed, I'm guessing we gave them a huge motivator to start it right back up, and apace this time.

If you think this is some kind of final solution to the Iranian nuclear problem, I think you are deluding yourself.

It's honestly wild to see some of these people not learn a single lesson of the past 150 years.

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Posted
1 minute ago, BurntEyes said:

Wait, so the Iranian Parliament is saying that they took care of everything in advance and this is basically zero issue for their nuclear program? Shocked. 

images(3).jpeg.16be42eec8c7910f05b0858587ca5384.jpeg

What would you expect them to say?

And you don’t throw in “you cannot bomb knowledge” unless their shit got fucked up. 
 

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

They are delusional and retarded. It's almost like some of you are rooting for them holy shit. 

Almost? Some of these people hate their President more than they love (like) their country.  Guaranteed that drives their thinking. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

1. Yes, they are delusional and retarded. 2. Fuck you. 

 

Sorry man, but I'm really against the narrative now that we are involved that Iran gets to do anything but fight back and be annihilated or surrender. 

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Posted

Satellite photo of the damage. Zoom in and you can see what looks like five holes in the top of the mountain with grey dust spread all over.

Embiggened view spoilered

Spoiler

22israel-iran-fordo-damage-1-tpkl-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp

 

image.thumb.png.b7fbe2318c025e20fd979515ed6d81e0.png
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/22/world/israel-iran-us-trump#iran-fordo-nuclear-damaged-not-destroyed

After overnight strikes on Iran, President Trump on Sunday declared the operation a “success,” and said that Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.” But his early public pronouncements contrast with more cautious assessments by the U.S. and Israeli militaries.

The Israeli military, in an initial analysis, believes the heavily fortified nuclear site at Fordo has sustained serious damage from the American strike on Sunday, but has not been completely destroyed, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the matter. The officials also said it appeared Iran had moved equipment, including uranium, from the site.

A senior U.S. official similarly acknowledged that the American strike on the Fordo site did not destroy the heavily fortified facility but said the strike had severely damaged it, taking it “off the table.” The person noted that even 12 bunker-busting bombs could not destroy the site.

The damage assessments by Israel and the United States are ongoing, and they have not made any final conclusions. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

In its overnight strikes, the United States took aim at three nuclear sites, including dropping 30,000 pound, bunker-busting bombs on Fordo, Iran’s most critical site.

In a briefing Sunday morning, top Pentagon officials echoed President Trump’s claims of success, while also saying the final assessment would take time. Gen. Dan Caine, the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the initial assessment indicated that all three sites sustained “severe damage and destruction,” but added that it was too soon to say whether Iran retained some nuclear capability.

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said at a news conference that the country was “calculating the damages” from the strike.

The initial assessment by the Israelis was based on Israeli satellite imagery and additional aerial photography conducted over the site, as well as Israeli intelligence monitoring of Fordo, according to the Israeli officials.

New satellite imagery taken shortly after the U.S. strikes on the Fordo nuclear site indicated damage and likely entry holes from the American bombs. The imagery, captured by Planet Labs, shows changes in the ground’s appearance and dust near the likely strike locations.

The Israelis, in their assessment, are also looking at satellite imagery from a few days before the U.S. strikes. They believe the images show the Iranians moving uranium and equipment from the Fordo facility.

Satellite images released by Maxar Technologies from around the time show 16 cargo trucks positioned near an entrance. An analysis by the Open Source Centre in London suggested that Iran may have been preparing the site for a strike. It is unclear exactly what, if anything, was removed from the facility.

Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration and a former C.I.A. officer, said of the strike: “With the type and amount of munitions used, it will likely set back the Iranian nuclear weapon program two to five years.”

“A full battle damage assessment will be conducted in the coming days to determine that more accurately,” he added.

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Posted

If Iran needs a nuclear weapon, Mr. Putin will pick up that call and fill that gas tank in the truck himself. 

Iran has funded militias on at least three continents. They have a weapons network that makes the cartel drug lords blush. 

Posted
16 minutes ago, immamac said:

it's hard as fuck and extremely expensive. 

yes and the companies who decided against it were driven by a profit motive, not survival

Posted
12 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

Iran's most likely course of action is an asymmetric attack on soft American targets, not military action. It is highly unlikely they will simply not respond.

This isn't the off ramp.

And if they execute such, we will attempt to label it as terrorism instead of warfare. And probably get away with it with enough people. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

How exactly do you enrich uranium without any facilities, I'm all ears.

How long do you think it takes to build such facilities? Do you think Iran has the capability to build these facilities with no help from anyone? 

I think Putin, who has the ear of potus, could easily say the only thing stopping a nuclear Iran is his order to give them one or more. 

Posted
Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Look man, this Iranian regime literally executed my grandfather 43 years ago and to this day lies in an unmarked grave. I have more reason to hate these fuckers than you do. 

 

Fucking act like it then. Right now you are fighting the reality that the US is actively engaged in War with Iran. 

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