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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

This thread is driving me insane. The whole situation is not that complicated. And yet, I’ll see posters post stupid shit like a one loss Georgia will pass conference champ Texas. That’s the dumbest viewpoint out there. 

And then I’ll see a poster make a rationale correct view on Oregon, for example, (will most likely be ahead of Texas but we could pass them if Bama gets in). I’ll start to think, “okay, this poster gets it”. And then the same poster will say something stupid like Ohio St will finish ahead of Texas. It’s maddening. 

The ONLY really debatable scenario is whether Bama gets in and Texas doesn’t.  

And then, someone drops in and says the obvious, an FSU loss is the best path. No shit Einstein. 

Just remember that you are on the football board and it should clear up any confusion. Every scenario is blindingly obvious to anyone with a lukewarm IQ.

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29 minutes ago, hornbri said:

If the committee puts Ohio State behind 1 loss Oregon, Bama, and us they would be sending a sign that conference championships matter since those are the teams that have qualified to play for one.

If Ohio State somehow ends up somewhere in the middle of this group then I will concede all the weight I am putting being a conference champ is wrong and maybe a 1 loss non-champ can be in. 

But I suspect Ohio State is going to land at 8 and the bottom of the one loss list. 

 

Every committee has been different but most of them have stated that winning the conference championship is the differentiator. It's extremely possible for Ohio State to be ahead of a team tomorrow and then that team pass them when they win next week. In fact, I expect exactly that to happen for at least one team. I would not be surprised to see Ohio State ahead of any number of Texas, Alabama, and Oregon tomorrow and then for any of those teams who win next week to pass them in the final rankings.

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2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

How many times would you say that happened?

I won't count losing the lead at the end against OU, as that was a dogfight all day. But from the outside looking in, we were shaky late against Houston, then handled BYU easily, then had to hold off late threats by TCU and KSU in consecutive weeks after our stumble in Dallas.

This all took place as other elites were winning, though not in all cases handily. Among 1-loss teams we've been worse ATS than have OSU, Alabama and Oregon. Washington and FSU have been roughly the same ATS as we have, but they've managed to avoid losing. I just think our much-publicized late-game fades prior to mauling Tech gave naysayers the ammo they felt they needed. I just hope the committee disagrees. 
 

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4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I would not be surprised to see Ohio State ahead of any number of Texas, Alabama, and Oregon tomorrow and then for any of those teams who win next week to pass them in the final rankings.

Yeah, I'd actually be surprised if tOSU is not the top (or maybe the 2nd) one-loss team on Tuesday, but any 1 loss team that wins their CCG will jump back ahead of tOSU (and any CCG losers) the following week.  

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14 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

I won't count losing the lead at the end against OU, as that was a dogfight all day. But from the outside looking in, we were shaky late against Houston, then handled BYU easily, then had to hold off late threats by TCU and KSU in consecutive weeks after our stumble in Dallas.

This all took place as other elites were winning, though not in all cases handily. Among 1-loss teams we've been worse ATS than have OSU, Alabama and Oregon. Washington and FSU have been roughly the same ATS as we have, but they've managed to avoid losing. I just think our much-publicized late-game fades prior to mauling Tech gave naysayers the ammo they felt they needed. I just hope the committee disagrees. 
 

Georgia has not kept a lead throughout a single P5 game start to finish this year.  Lots of people only watch our games or believe what they read in the game threads.  We've had a few close games, but not more than anyone else.  We are actually #2 in Game Control - behind Michigan.

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4 minutes ago, blutow said:

Yeah, I'd actually be surprised if tOSU is not the top (or maybe the 2nd) one-loss team on Tuesday, but any 1 loss team that wins their CCG will jump back ahead of tOSU (and any CCG losers) the following week.  

I get why that can happen but it seems like a dumb move by the committee. That is just going to anger and confuse people. 

If they already know any one loss conference champ is going to be ahead of them there is no harm leaving all three ahead. The ones that lose will fall behind Ohio state for the poll that matters anyway. 

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7 minutes ago, blutow said:

Yeah, I'd actually be surprised if tOSU is not the top (or maybe the 2nd) one-loss team on Tuesday, but any 1 loss team that wins their CCG will jump back ahead of tOSU (and any CCG losers) the following week.  

Agreed. The only way Ohio St. gets in the playoff is if FSU, Texas and Alabama all lose.  They will be behind the Pac 12 champ, SEC champ and Michigan.  They will be behind Georgia if Alabama wins the SEC.

And Georgia, Michigan, Washington and FSU all get in with a win.  They simply won't leave out an unbeaten P5 champ.  Oregon, Texas and Alabama don't control their own destiny, but all have a chance.

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All the people quoting “the committee has never done X” are missing one critically important distinction: this is the last fucking committee for the 4-team playoff. Any new precedent they set is irrelevant to the future integrity of an already bullshit system. Fuckery will be turned up to an 11 if there’s multiple one loss teams to sort through and agendas and power will be flexed. Anything can be justified because the consequences of doing something controversial are minimal in the long run. 

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2 hours ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

FWIW I hope we continue to play big OOC games. Fuck the playoffs, it makes for more entertainment and helps recruiting. 

If we're left out I hope we don't play this like UGA in '18. 

 

We're 11-1. I refuse to be upset about anything college football related.

Why bother with the early big matchups OOC, we will just play them in the playoffs.  Basically any marquee opponents will either be SEC or B1G,

ACC teams don’t move the needle and B12 can go fuck their own faces.  

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7 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Georgia has not kept a lead throughout a single P5 game start to finish this year.  Lots of people only watch our games or believe what they read in the game threads.  We've had a few close games, but not more than anyone else.

Georgia usually lets the other team score first and then steamrolls them in the 2nd or 3rd quarter.

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5 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Georgia has not kept a lead throughout a single P5 game start to finish this year.  Lots of people only watch our games or believe what they read in the game threads.  We've had a few close games, but not more than anyone else.  We are actually #2 in Game Control - behind Michigan.

We haven't trailed much at all this year. Credit to our fast starts, as per usual with Sark scripting the attack. I think UGA tends to get a media mulligan for past achievements and will continue to until they finally lose. 

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4 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I get why that can happen but it seems like a dumb move by the committee. That is just going to anger and confuse people. 

If they already know any one loss conference champ is going to be ahead of them there is no harm leaving all three ahead. The ones that lose will fall behind Ohio state for the poll that matters anyway. 

Yeah, it's always entertaining when people freak out about those.  But the rankings are supposed to be based on history and not look forward.  I'm guessing they take some consideration about how things might play out in the future (to make their lives easier), but they aren't supposed to and it's a slippery slope if they start doing that.  

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Texas will be ranked ahead of Oregon this week. 
 

If Oregon beats Washington in the PAC CG they will jump  Texas again. 
 

The committee can then say the criteria listed on their website worked as designed. That’s not to say Texas will not make the cfp, that will be determined by the other cc games

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1 hour ago, hornbri said:

If the committee puts Ohio State behind 1 loss Oregon, Bama, and us they would be sending a sign that conference championships matter since those are the teams that have qualified to play for one.

If Ohio State somehow ends up somewhere in the middle of this group then I will concede all the weight I am putting being a conference champ is wrong and maybe a 1 loss non-champ can be in. 

But I suspect Ohio State is going to land at 8 and the bottom of the one loss list. 

 

This is flawed logic. The conference championships are not yet relevant in this ranking. It will only be relevant AFTER the games are played. At this point in time, they have just as many data points as we do. 

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12 minutes ago, BB65 said:

Texas will be ranked ahead of Oregon this week. 
 

If Oregon beats Washington in the PAC CG they will jump  Texas again. 
 

The committee can then say the criteria listed on their website worked as designed. That’s not to say Texas will not make the cfp, that will be determined by the other cc games

I do not think we will be ahead of Oregon but I am here for it if that happens. I really hope you are right but this committee loves PAC and Oregon didn't look shaky against OSU. Yes I know we have a common opponent that we beat the shit out of compared to them but I don't see them reversing course over 1 week. 

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3 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

You can throw whatever prediction this site makes straight into the garbage. 

 

garbage.JPG

 

 

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The idea that Washington loses and we are behind them (presuming we win) is absurd and you should feel bad for linking that nonsense. 

Yeah, I know. I said I’m looking for resources on this and there’s a shocking dearth of them. Like that was all I found. Better than reading posters being “sure” here that we’re in over UO and Bama no matter what. Well that isn’t the case. 

The only reason I linked it is because chaos is bad bad bad for us. We need all the favorites to hold serve except FSU and UM. Otherwise we’re fucked. 

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I don't remember the details, but in 2014 wasn't TCU ranked 3rd leading into the conference championship weekend, and then because they didn't play some other teams that won their conference jumped ahead of them?  It is not exactly the same since other than Ohio St, all of the teams we are discussing are playing this weekend, but it does show that teams can be dropped for reasons other than losing.

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3 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

 

Yeah, I know. I said I’m looking for resources on this and there’s a shocking dearth of them. Like that was all I found. Better than reading posters being “sure” here that we’re in over UO and Bama no matter what. Well that isn’t the case. 

The only reason I linked it is because chaos is bad bad bad for us. We need all the favorites to hold serve except FSU and UM. Otherwise we’re fucked. 

If FSU loses and so does Georgia or Washington, we arent "fucked". We are still going to the playoff in that situation. 

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43 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Georgia has not kept a lead throughout a single P5 game start to finish this year.  Lots of people only watch our games or believe what they read in the game threads.  We've had a few close games, but not more than anyone else.  We are actually #2 in Game Control - behind Michigan.

committee - "game control, SOS, what is all this BS?  I know football and eye test tells me everything I need to know"

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7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

If FSU loses and so does Georgia or Washington, we arent "fucked". We are still going to the playoff in that situation. 

UM, Bama, Oregon in for sure. Then it’s a toss up with, depending on the outcomes, UGA, Texas, UW, and tOSU, in that order. 

12 minutes ago, Yesh said:

I don't remember the details, but in 2014 wasn't TCU ranked 3rd leading into the conference championship weekend, and then because they didn't play some other teams that won their conference jumped ahead of them?  It is not exactly the same since other than Ohio St, all of the teams we are discussing are playing this weekend, but it does show that teams can be dropped for reasons other than losing.

Yes. tOSU won their CCG 59-0 over a Wisconsin team that was about as good as OU this year. Totally changed the narrative. TCU and Baylor cancelled each other out, some other shit happened and both were out. If you recall the B12 didn’t have a CCG at that point. That TCU team was much more talented than last year’s. 

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2 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

UM, Bama, Oregon in for sure. Then it’s a toss up with, depending on the outcomes, UGA, Texas, UW, and tOSU, in that order. 

Yes. tOSU won their CCG 59-0 over a Wisconsin team that was about as good as OU this year. Totally changed the narrative. TCU and Baylor cancelled each other out, some other shit happened and both were out. If you recall the B12 didn’t have a CCG at that point. That TCU team was much more talented than last year’s. 

So you think a 1 loss Washington non conference champion or OSU could get a spot over a 1 loss conference champion Texas? I know you are on the record with your Georgia theory (and you are very very wrong on that one too). 

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15 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

So you think a 1 loss Washington non conference champion or OSU could get a spot over a 1 loss conference champion Texas? I know you are on the record with your Georgia theory (and you are very very wrong on that one too). 

I think all are possibilities. With UW and UGA winning, you eliminate the number of contenders. It is basic logic. 

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1 minute ago, Jewish Wang said:

I think all are possibilities. With UW and UGA winning, you eliminate the number of contenders. It is basic logic. 

But you said, Texas was "fucked" if Washington loses or Georgia loses. Implying you think Texas wont go over either team. Is that your stance? You specifically wrote that the only way we get in is with FSU losing or Iowa losing and UW and GA winning. Anything else and we would be "fucked". 

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4 hours ago, bullet said:

Sagarin SOS:

Washington 26

Michigan 55

Georgia 56

FSU 66

Texas 2

Alabama 15

Ohio St. 31

Oregon 52

ESPN's FPI is a total crock.

most arguments can be made in the transitive and reflexive

one that can't is committee awareness of the rig fuckery cost in yards and points which makes half our wins look like shit when they are actually stout against sagarin

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Wonder if the committee would have the guts to leave out Alabama if they win next weekend but FSU, Washington, and Michigan finish undefeated conference champs and Texas wins the big 12.  Almost feel that is the best scenario for Texas.  Head to head is part of the criteria.  No amount of twisting and turning could justify putting in Alabama over Texas or undefeated P5 conference champions.  

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4 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I’ll say I’m coming around to the idea that Texas could jump Oregon if - and only if - Alabama beats Georgia. It would be hard to keep Alabama’s body of work out of the top four there and perhaps the increased value of Texas’s win at Bama vaults them over Oregon, who could be the one left holding the bag due to lower SOS.

i think the committee is going to pre-position this possibility in 48 hours

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1 minute ago, GTJ1982 said:

Wonder if the committee would have the guts to leave out Alabama if they win next weekend but FSU, Washington, and Michigan finish undefeated conference champs and Texas wins the big 12.  Almost feel that is the best scenario for Texas.  Head to head is part of the criteria.  No amount of twisting and turning could justify putting in Alabama over Texas or undefeated P5 conference champions.  

Yup just came to post this

 

its chaos, especially if both bama and texas and oregon all win

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8 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

We need FSU to lose at a minimum. If they win I think no matter what happens with the SEC and Pac 12 games the winner goes to the CFP.  

Agree

PAC and SEC champs are in. Michigan and FSU are only guaranteed as conference champs. Texas as a conference champ jumps a 1 loss non conference champ. 

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1 hour ago, Gut Wagon said:

We haven't trailed much at all this year. Credit to our fast starts, as per usual with Sark scripting the attack. I think UGA tends to get a media mulligan for past achievements and will continue to until they finally lose. 

Texas, for better or worse, has lots of games where they’ve let opponents stay within a score or two most of the game. Ultimately, a W is a W. But when you are surfing channels on a Saturday, Texas, post Alabama, is the top ten team  most likely to  be in a dog fight when other big top ten names are sitting 4 TD leads middle 3rd quarter. 
 

And a lot of voters, for better or worse, take an impression off that.  When it took tOSU 4 quarters to get a handle on Maryland, people noticed. Texas has multiple games like that.

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11 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i think the committee is going to pre-position this possibility in 48 hours

How do you think they will rank the top 8?

2 hours ago, Treefidy said:

I mean, Pac is not getting 2 teams in.  There’s no scenario that happens outside a meteor strike that leaves only Washington and Oregon above sea level.

Lol exactly

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36 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

But you said, Texas was "fucked" if Washington loses or Georgia loses. Implying you think Texas wont go over either team. Is that your stance? You specifically wrote that the only way we get in is with FSU losing or Iowa losing and UW and GA winning. Anything else and we would be "fucked". 

I think we’d have to get lucky with that much chaos. What about my stance do you not understand?

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5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

  

teach-you-this-lesson-sponge-bob.gif

PSA: Texas as a 1 loss conference champion is not going behind a 1 loss non conf champion.

Especially Georgia, when the 4 major criteria they follow are:

1. Conference Championship (Adv Texas, and Texas would own a road win over the SEC champ)

2. Head to head (Not applicable)

3. SOS (Adv Texas)

4. Common Opponents (Adv Texas, we would have beaten Bama on the road and UGA would have lost at a neutral site)

And before anyone tries to say best loss, that argument collapses on itself because their "best loss" is to a team we beat. 

Texas may not go in front of Bama or UO, that is debatable. But OSU, UGA, and Washington arent going in front of us.  

Lock up the thread. The criteria (mere guidelines) have been cited. Discussion over. 

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32 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Texas, for better or worse, has lots of games where they’ve let opponents stay within a score or two most of the game. Ultimately, a W is a W. But when you are surfing channels on a Saturday, Texas, post Alabama, is the top ten team  most likely to  be in a dog fight when other big top ten names are sitting 4 TD leads middle 3rd quarter. 
 

And a lot of voters, for better or worse, take an impression off that.  When it took tOSU 4 quarters to get a handle on Maryland, people noticed. Texas has multiple games like that.

Hey man, I’m In agreement that Texas is unfortunately on the outside looking in, but don’t keep pushing out arguments that are contrary to your thesis. Re: Washington and Alabama.

Forgot to add FSU.

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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