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The Home Stretch - Big 12 Championship Scenarios


Js1

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BTW this is the Big XII championship thread, not the CFP playoff thread, so, first things first ... just win the next four...

However, checking out this Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

  • 28 of 36 CFP teams were power five conf champs with 0 or 1 losses.
  • 6 were one loss teams that either didn't make their conf championship game or lost in the championship game.
  • The other two were an undefeated independent team (Notre Dame, duh) and an undefeated non-power five team (Cincy)
  • No two loss team has been selected.

Baylor and TCU had 11-1 records in 2014, but there was no conf champ game, so both missed out.

Ohio State went 12-1 in 2018 and won the Big 10, but missed out.  They are the only one loss team to win their conference championship and not make the four team playoff.

Alabama has been picked seven of nine times, but was only undefeated three of those times.

There have never been four undefeated teams selected.

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I think you're the first to get my username in years.  Good to see another reefkeeper.  I'm in Hawaii about to dive amongst the coral.  
Back on topic, I think the number of teams that finish undefeated is almost always less than 2.  A 1 loss Texas will always get in.  We are the Jones's.  BOMC, the biggest brand in football, whatever.  
Also, fuck OU, Aggy, LSU, Notre Dame and OU again.  We won, they lost  Such a great weekend!
 
 
Was a huge reefer even posted on the thread here on Surly and Shag until a 3-day power outage put me out of the game post-Hurricane Sally

Yes, a one-loss Texas gets in cause we bring $$, TVs revenue eyeballs, etc. 1e64fa511f087a3cd3d5aab2bd9becca.jpg
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2 hours ago, Pancho said:

Who is thinking that? 

It’s also dumb to just expect that Texas is “automatically in” if we just win out and win the Big 12. That is equally as dumb. What is even more dumb is not recognizing that we may do our part and still get left out because of other situations. This fanbase needs to be prepared for that just as much as some are prepared for us to win out and get our first bid. That’s all.

 

 

 

I get that point of view and he's right if "everything holds" but the only top 10 team to lose as a large favorite this season has been Clemson (who obviously ended up sucking ass). We're way overdue multiple teams tripping over their dicks. 

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19 minutes ago, Teryor said:

I get that point of view and he's right if "everything holds" but the only top 10 team to lose as a large favorite this season has been Clemson (who obviously ended up sucking ass). We're way overdue multiple teams tripping over their dicks. 

I’m hoping for Oregon state to fuck Washington up. Bitches leaving them behind going down. 

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I hate that we're even talking about this when we still have 3 very losable games left, but the best scenario for us to make the CFP is to win out and pray FSU loses to Miami, UF, or in the ACC Championship. The BIG, SEC, and PAC will have a spot unless Wash or Ore lose 2 which is very unlikely.

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CFP playoff predictor has us at 39% today and that’s 5th.
Alabama is at 41%

I think that’s probably more of a “Texas could conceivably lose any game on the schedule while Alabama really just plays Georgia at this point.”

Analytics both like this Alabama team and do not account for the rivalry factor in the iron bowl.
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16 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Damn, wish we had taken care of our own business and beat BlowU ugly. Oh well. I don’t think we are CFP ready. I’d like to believe we are but the signs have been evident all season long save the Bama game (one that was strenuously prepared for and scripted for the whole offseason) that we ain’t ready for that. We aren’t healthy either. Too many fucking injuries. I’d rather go to a Top Tier bowl and end it on a bowl win (even though Sark is like 2-5 in bowl games as a HC) and take that awesome momentum into the SEC. Jmo. We don’t control our own destiny here. 

This. I can only worry about controlling what we can control. Win out and win the conference. If we get in the cfp, good. But the conference has always been my goal for whether this season is "successful" or not. Arlington isn't even a lock yet. 

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There is no scenario anywhere on earth that makes me wanna play blowU again. Fuck them let them watch the big12 title from their meth roach infested trailer park  they can get fucked every way from Sunday 

 

additionally. We would be the weakest looking cfp team and any in the top 5 would boat race us at this current moment 

Edited by Sgt Hulk
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7 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

There is no scenario anywhere on earth that makes me wanna play blowU again. Fuck them let them watch the big12 title from their meth roach infested trailer park  they can get fucked every way from Sunday 

 

additionally. We would be the weakest looking cfp team and any in the top 5 would boat race us at this current moment 

I wanted OU to win out so we could beat their ass to seal our spot in the CFP. If we were 100% healthy I’d take us against anybody. 

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IF it comes down to Texas / Alabama for the 1 loss final spot, in how the committee has weighed things in the past, I don't see them giving the spot to Alabama. They'll weigh improvement, early season loss etc, but given a head to head, given it was an Alabama home game, that is going to trump everything else.

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Everyone wants to blacken our eye and have permanent scoreboard over us. That is the reality of the rest of the games we walk into against beatable teams. I'm glad that this young team believes in each other and haven't shown quit. The DB and QB play are their weakness that they've managed to mitigate to date. I just hope they can keep it up.

I thought last Saturday that we had lost the game but we stayed in it and the other coach blinked and made a bonehead decision that helped hand their team a loss. I think these Horns will stay in and fight.  I am going to trust that and though we have flaws, we don't have quit. That can get you wins. 

 

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On 11/5/2023 at 12:54 PM, Rickylovesweed said:

I'm calling a big upset this weekend. Oklahoma State @ UCF. 

UCF is a flawed team but they can score points with Plumlee at QB. An emotional letdown for Oklahoma State too. 

Still a long way to go but had a feeling UCF could win this one. This was a very tricky game for Oklahoma State. 

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16 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

It would get messy and a three way tie including KSU would very much be in play. KSU has to play KU and ISU though.

I'm pretty sure the tiebreaker is head to head winning % between the teams so if OSU, KSU, & OU all finish at 7-2 in conference play OSU still gets in because they went 2-0 against KSU & OU where OU went 0-1 and KSU went 0-1 since OU & KSU didn't face each other.

Edited by Pimphand
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3 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

I'm pretty sure the tiebreaker is head to head winning % between the teams so if OSU, KSU, & OU all finish at 7-2 in conference play OSU still gets in because they went 2-0 against KSU & OU where OU went 0-1 and KSU went 0-1 since OU & KSU didn't face each other.

The head to head is thrown out in a three-way tie if all three haven’t played each other. Though that doesn’t make much sense if OSU beat both the others.

I believe It would then go to record against the next highest placed common opponents. 

Edited by LonghornSean
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5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I’m pretty sure Kansas is the actual second or third best team in this conference. They’ve just been dealt a shit hand with QB injuries

Texas at the top

Then a big jumble of “wtf” with KU, KSU, ISU, OU, OSU

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I think Texas, ou, osu, and ksu can all finish with 2 losses. Texas doesnt play osu, ou doesn’t play ksu I believe. Would be quite the tiebreaker.  I’d prefer to 1) have tx with 1 loss and avoid it, obviously, or 2) have wvu take out ou and then would take the 2 loss spot, as neither of them should be losing their last 2. 

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3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don’t see this happening at Houston but what do I know lol. Shit happens.

Houston is not good but they've been in close games almost all year at home. They're a better team at home than away. 

In the last two home games they beat WV (decent team) and almost beat Texas. I think they can definitely beat Oklahoma State at home if Oklahoma State doesn't play well. 

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